## Sub-Saharan Africa: Navigating a Long Pandemic

_IMF News, April 15, 2021_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Sub-Saharan Africa: Navigating a Long Pandemic](https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2021/04/14/pr21108-sub-saharan-africa-navigating-a-long-pandemic)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2021/04/14/pr21108-sub-saharan-africa-navigating-a-long-pandemic/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2021/04/14/pr21108-sub-saharan-africa-navigating-a-long-pandemic/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2021/04/14/pr21108-sub-saharan-africa-navigating-a-long-pandemic/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Published: April 15, 2021

---

### Near-term economic outlook and projections
- Region projected to grow by 3.4 percent in 2021.
- 2020 recorded a ‑1.9 percent contraction—the worst on record.
- Per capita output not expected to return to 2019 levels until after 2022.
- In many countries, per capita income will not return to pre-crisis levels until 2025.
- The number of extreme poor in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to have increased by more than 32 million.
- Students missed 67 days of instruction, more than four times the level in advanced economies.
- Sub-Saharan Africa will be the world’s slowest growing region in 2021.

### Key uncertainties and risks
- Outlook subject to considerable uncertainty related to:
  - the course of the pandemic,
  - access to vaccines,
  - the more challenging external financing environment.
- Other risks that could jeopardize recovery:
  - access to external financing,
  - political instability,
  - domestic security,
  - climate shocks.
- Positive contingent factor: faster‑than‑anticipated vaccine supply or rollout could boost near-term prospects.

### Health response and vaccine needs
- Accelerated access to vaccines is critical to boost health and growth prospects.
- Required actions:
  - increased spending for vaccine rollouts,
  - stronger local health systems,
  - vigilant containment efforts.
- Fiscal implication: for most countries, the cost of vaccinating 60 percent of the population will require up to 50 percent increase in health spending, and could exceed 2 percent of GDP in some countries.
- International community role:
  - ensure vaccine coverage for sub-Saharan Africa as a global public good,
  - avoid restrictions on dissemination of vaccines or medical equipment,
  - fully fund multilateral facilities such as COVAX,
  - redistribute excess doses in wealthy countries quickly.

### Policy priorities and reform agenda
- Three-pronged effort recommended:
  - bold reforms to boost economic growth and diversification,
  - fiscal measures to boost revenues and contain debt vulnerabilities,
  - significant additional external concessional financing to support reform agenda.
- Specific reform areas highlighted:
  - digitalization,
  - trade integration,
  - competition,
  - transparency and governance,
  - climate-change mitigation.
- Fiscal policy focus:
  - mobilize domestic revenues,
  - prioritize essential spending,
  - more effectively manage public debt to create fiscal space for recovery investments and put debt on a sustainable footing.
- Immediate priority emphasized: save lives through health spending and vaccine procurement/distribution.

### Debt relief, financing support, and estimated funding needs
- Seventeen countries in the region are at high risk of, or already in, debt distress and will need deeper support.
- G-20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) impact:
  - delivered breathing space alleviating debt service pressures in the order of $1.8 billion through December 2020,
  - potential for another $4.8 billion in the first half of 2021.
- For deeper relief, the G-20 Common Framework for Debt Treatment can provide coordinated solutions tailored to each economy’s circumstances.
- Additional external funding needs to help boost pandemic response, maintain reserves, and accelerate income convergence:
  - sub-Saharan Africa’s low-income countries face about $245 billion over the next 5 years,
  - $425 billion for the whole region over the next 5 years.
- IMF role and liquidity support:
  - a potential general allocation of special drawing rights from the IMF would help provide liquidity to most vulnerable sub-Saharan African countries.
- These financing issues will be discussed at the High-Level International Summit on Financing for Africa in May.

*Press Release No. 21/108 — Sub-Saharan Africa: Navigating a Long Pandemic (April 15, 2021), IMF Communications Department.*

---


## References

- [Abebe Aemro Selassie](https://www.imf.org/en/About/senior-officials/Bios/abebe-selassie)
- [Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)
- [PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)
- [Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO/SSA/Issues/2021/04/15/regional-economic-outlook-for-sub-saharan-africa-april-2021)
- [https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2021/04/14/pr21108-sub-saharan-africa-navigating-a-long-pandemic_