{
  "title": "Transcript of April 2021 Sub-Saharan Africa Press Briefing",
  "publication": "IMF News, April 15, 2021",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2021/04/15/tr041521-transcript-of-april-2021-sub-saharan-africa-press-briefing",
  "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2021/04/15/tr041521-transcript-of-april-2021-sub-saharan-africa-press-briefing",
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  "summary": "Second wave outpaced the scale and speed of the first wave in Sub-Saharan Africa.",
  "publishDate": "2021-04-15",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Pandemic trajectory, vaccines, and health implications",
      "content": "- Second wave outpaced the scale and speed of the first wave in Sub-Saharan Africa.\n- Vaccine access is highly unequal: many advanced countries secured multiple times their needs; many Sub-Saharan African countries are struggling to vaccinate essential frontline workers.\n- Few countries in the region will achieve widespread vaccine availability before 2023, on current trends.\n- With scant access to vaccines, countries face risk of additional waves of infection.\n- IMF stance:\n  - Ensuring vaccine coverage for Sub-Saharan Africa is a high-value global public good.\n  - International community should ramp up vaccine supply, ensure sufficient financing for facilities like COVAX, and quickly distribute excess vaccines from wealthy countries."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Macro outlook and key statistics",
      "content": "- Regional GDP and recovery:\n  - Region contracted by 1.9 percent in 2020.\n  - Region projected to expand by 3.4 percent in 2021.\n  - Per capita output is not expected to return to 2019 levels until after 2022 (region-wide statement).\n  - In many countries, per capita income will not return to pre-pandemic levels until 2025.\n- Poverty, education, and social impact:\n  - Number of people living in extreme poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa projected to have increased by 32 million in 2020.\n  - Students in the region have missed more than four times the days missed by children in advanced countries.\n- Regional divergences and examples:\n  - East African Community (EAC): contraction in 2020 estimated at -0.2 percent; recovery in 2021 expected to be closer to five and a half percent.\n  - South Africa: growth contracted by around 7 percent in 2020; recovery this year expected but medium-term requires structural reforms.\n  - Nigeria: IMF projection cited as 2.5 percent for 2021 (question referenced IMF projection); recovery driven partly by rebound as containment eases.\n  - Zimbabwe: IMF growth projection 3.1 percent for 2021 vs. government target 7.4 percent; inflation expectations noted upwards of 9 percent (government target 9 percent referenced).\n  - Ghana: IMF expects recovery around 4.5 percent in 2021; IMF noted differences with government projections can arise from timing and data vintage.\n  - Mozambique: insecurity in Cabo Delgado (Palma) threatens LNG project timelines and the country’s outlook.\n- Debt and liquidity pressures:\n  - G20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) delivered alleviation of debt service pressures in excess of six and a half billion, from mid-2020 to what is in the pipeline through mid-2021.\n  - Additional external funding needs for Sub-Saharan Africa estimated at around $425 billion over the next five years."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Risks and scenarios",
      "content": "- Main risks to the outlook:\n  - Repeated COVID-19 episodes before widespread vaccination.\n  - Limited external concessional financing.\n  - Political instability and domestic security issues.\n  - Climate events.\n- Upside scenario:\n  - Faster-than-expected vaccine supply or rollout could boost near-term growth prospects."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy priorities and recommendations",
      "content": "- Immediate priorities:\n  - Save lives: more spending to strengthen local health systems and containment efforts; accelerate vaccine rollout where needed.\n  - Vaccinating 60 percent of a country’s population will require, in some cases, increasing health spending by as much as 50 percent (phrasing from briefing: \"in a few cases, by as much as 50 percent\").\n- Medium-term and structural priorities:\n  - Reinforce recovery and unlock growth potential through bold, transformative reforms:\n    - Strengthen social protection systems.\n    - Promote digitalization.\n    - Improve transparency in government.\n    - Mitigate climate change.\n  - Restore public sector balance-sheet health over the medium term where debt vulnerabilities exist.\n  - For the 17 countries in the region at high risk of debt distress or already in debt distress: mobilize domestic revenue, prioritize essential spending, and more effectively manage public debt.\n- Fiscal-monetary calibration:\n  - Countries with limited fiscal space should pursue domestic revenue mobilization and prioritize spending to create room for recovery investments.\n  - Example recommendations by country:\n    - Nigeria: increase domestic revenue mobilization, reform the energy sector to reduce the cost of doing business, and create deep and liquid foreign exchange markets.\n    - South Africa: pursue reforms for more competitive product markets and ensure adequate energy supply.\n    - Kenya: adopt a medium-term fiscal framework to contain and reduce debt vulnerabilities while supporting near-term recovery."
    },
    {
      "heading": "International support, IMF actions, and financing mechanisms",
      "content": "- IMF emergency support over the past year included Emergency Funding Facilities, increased access under existing arrangements, and debt relief via the CCRT.\n- Common Framework:\n  - Designed to tailor debt-treatment solutions to individual country circumstances.\n  - Implementation is at an early stage; country experiences will vary depending on debt structure and creditor composition (examples discussed: Chad, Ethiopia, Zambia).\n- SDRs and liquidity:\n  - Once the IMF Executive Board decision is finalized, about 23 billion SDRs are expected to reach 45 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (phrase used in briefing: \"about 23 billion SDRs to reach 45 countries in the [sub-Saharan Africa] region\").\n  - An SDR allocation would provide liquidity to vulnerable countries; additional mechanisms to channel unused SDRs from advanced countries to vulnerable countries are being explored.\n  - Historical timeline: between decision and crediting resources to countries took about 4.5-5 months in 2009; similar timeline is expected.\n  - Crediting of SDRs: resources credited to central banks in proportion to country quotas (\"100 percent of a country's quota\" phrasing used).\n- Other sources: private capital flows, international financial institutions, ODA/debt relief, and capacity development will all be needed to meet the region’s $425 billion external funding needs over the next five years."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Transparency, governance, and accountability",
      "content": "- IMF emphasizes transparency, good governance, and fighting corruption as critical for effective use of all public resources, including SDRs and emergency financing.\n- Measures in Fund engagements:\n  - Requesting audits of how emergency resources are used.\n  - Requiring publication of beneficial owners of contracts awarded with emergency resources.\n  - Supporting transparency in budget and procurement to strengthen the social contract and improve domestic revenue mobilization.\n\nTranscript: IMF Communications Department, April 15, 2021.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- Abebe Aemro Selassie\n- PRESS CENTER\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2021/04/15/tr041521-transcript-of-april-2021-sub-saharan-africa-press-briefing"
    }
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    "Published: April 15, 2021",
    "Second wave outpaced the scale and speed of the first wave in Sub-Saharan Africa.",
    "Vaccine access is highly unequal: many advanced countries secured multiple times their needs; many Sub-Saharan African countries are struggling to vaccinate essential frontline workers.",
    "Few countries in the region will achieve widespread vaccine availability before 2023, on current trends.",
    "With scant access to vaccines, countries face risk of additional waves of infection.",
    "IMF stance:",
    "Regional GDP and recovery:",
    "Poverty, education, and social impact:",
    "Regional divergences and examples:",
    "Debt and liquidity pressures:",
    "Main risks to the outlook:",
    "Upside scenario:",
    "Immediate priorities:",
    "Medium-term and structural priorities:",
    "Fiscal-monetary calibration:",
    "IMF emergency support over the past year included Emergency Funding Facilities, increased access under existing arrangements, and debt relief via the CCRT.",
    "Common Framework:",
    "SDRs and liquidity:",
    "Other sources: private capital flows, international financial institutions, ODA/debt relief, and capacity development will all be needed to meet the region’s $425 billion external funding needs over the next five years.",
    "IMF emphasizes transparency, good governance, and fighting corruption as critical for effective use of all public resources, including SDRs and emergency financing.",
    "Measures in Fund engagements:",
    "[Abebe Aemro Selassie](https://www.imf.org/en/About/senior-officials/Bios/abebe-selassie)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
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