{
  "title": "IMF Executive Board Concludes the 2021 Article IV Consultation with Guinea",
  "publication": "IMF News, June 30, 2021",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2021/06/30/pr21202-guinea-imf-executive-board-concludes-the-2021article-iv-consultation",
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  "summary": "Real GDP growth: 7.1 percent of GDP in 2020.",
  "publishDate": "2021-06-30",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Economic performance and macro outcomes (2020–2021)",
      "content": "- Real GDP growth: 7.1 percent of GDP in 2020.\n- Sectoral growth:\n  - Mining: 34.6 percent (2020).\n  - Non-mining: 1.3 percent (2020); noted as significantly affected by the Covid-19 pandemic and employing the vast majority of the population.\n- Inflation:\n  - Surpassed 10 percent at end-2020.\n  - Accelerated to above 12 percent (by June 2021).\n  - GDP deflator: 10.7 (2020); projected 11.3 (2021).\n  - Consumer prices (average): 10.6 (2020); projected 11.6 (2021).\n- Current account and reserves:\n  - Current account deficit increased to 13.7 percent of GDP (2020).\n  - Reserves reached USD 1.3 bn at end-2020.\n- Public debt and fiscal outcomes:\n  - Fiscal deficit reached close to 3 percent of GDP (2020).\n  - Public debt increased to 43.4 percent (2020), reflecting the first disbursement for the Souapiti dam project and crisis response spending.\n- Monetary and credit conditions:\n  - Monetary policy described as accommodative; accommodative regulatory measures helped sustain credit supply.\n  - Net foreign assets: 8.6 (2020).\n  - Net domestic assets: 15.3 (2020).\n  - Reserve money: 19.2 (2020).\n  - Broad money (M2): 23.0 (2020).\n  - Credit to non-government sector: 4.7 (2020)."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Health shocks, social impact, and policy response",
      "content": "- Health shocks:\n  - COVID-19 pandemic significantly affected the non-mining economy.\n  - New Ebola outbreak in February 2021 (localized); authorities and WHO declared the end of the Ebola outbreak on June 19, 2021.\n- Policy responses:\n  - Authorities implemented a crisis response plan to expand health spending and support vulnerable households and the private sector.\n  - Vaccination campaigns for COVID-19 and Ebola started in March 2021.\n  - Donor support contributed to reserve accumulation."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Outlook and risks (projections and scenario drivers)",
      "content": "- Growth projection: Real growth projected at 5.2 percent in 2021, supported by robust mining-sector growth and gradual recovery of the non-mining sector.\n- Inflation outlook: Likely to remain above the BCRG's single digit target throughout 2021.\n- Key downside risks:\n  - Potential intensification of the COVID-19 pandemic.\n  - Commodity price shocks.\n  - Reduced availability of donor financing.\n  - Increased geopolitical tensions.\n  - Vulnerability to climate change.\n- Key upside possibilities:\n  - Faster-than-expected increase in mining activity.\n  - Accelerated implementation of investment activities, particularly the Simandou iron ore project."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Executive Board assessment and policy recommendations",
      "content": "- General view:\n  - Directors commended prompt response to COVID‑19, welcomed resilient growth in 2020, and noted a favorable near‑term outlook subject to downside risks.\n  - Emphasized vaccination implementation and maintaining targeted support for vulnerable households and businesses.\n  - Stressed need to diversify the economy and secure more inclusive, balanced, and sustainable growth.\n- Fiscal and revenue policy:\n  - Encourage continued efforts to create fiscal space for investment in infrastructure, human capital, and social protection.\n  - Highlighted urgency of domestic revenue mobilization, particularly from the mining sector.\n  - Specific recommendations on mining revenue:\n    - Address profit shifting risks from transfer mispricing.\n    - Fully apply the Mining Code to new contracts.\n    - Minimize tax exemptions.\n    - Adopt the General Tax Code.\n  - Enhance spending efficiency and eliminate energy subsidies.\n  - Continue strengthening public financial management.\n  - Maintain prudent external borrowing policies; maximize recourse to concessional financing and grants to safeguard debt sustainability.\n- Monetary and exchange rate policy:\n  - Address rising inflation, including by accelerating repayment of central bank advances.\n  - Limit monetary financing of the budget.\n  - Continue modernizing the monetary policy framework, focusing on more active liquidity management and clearer communication of monetary targets.\n  - Exchange rate flexibility recommended to help build reserves and absorb shocks; welcomed transparent rules‑based foreign exchange intervention policy.\n- Structural reforms and governance:\n  - Encourage diversification efforts: strengthen business climate and financial sector, promote digitalization, and boost human capital development.\n  - Welcome recent improvements in governance; encourage strengthening the anti‑corruption framework, including swift adoption and implementation of the national strategy and the asset declaration regime."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Selected economic and financial indicators (2019–22)",
      "content": "- GDP at constant prices (annual percentage change): 5.6 (2019); 7.1 (2020); 5.2 (2021 proj.); 6.1 (2022 proj.).\n- Mining (annual percentage change): 9.4 (2019); 34.6 (2020); 7.7 (2021 proj.).\n- Non-mining (annual percentage change): 4.9 (2019); 1.3 (2020); 4.5 (2021 proj.); 5.8 (2022 proj.).\n- GDP deflator: 9.9 (2019); 10.7 (2020); 11.3 (2021 proj.); 9.7 (2022 proj.).\n- GDP at market prices (annual percentage change): 16.2 (2019); 18.6 (2020); 17.0 (2021 proj.); 16.4 (2022 proj.).\n- Consumer prices (average): 9.5 (2019); 10.6 (2020); 11.6 (2021 proj.).\n- Exports, f.o.b. (US$ terms, annual percentage change): -0.8 (2019); 126.4 (2020); 0.6 (2021 proj.); -9.8 (2022 proj.).\n- Imports, f.o.b. (US$ terms, annual percentage change): -21.1 (2019); 76.0 (2020); -4.7 (2021 proj.); -16.4 (2022 proj.).\n- Net foreign assets (percent of broad money stock): 10.5 (2019); 8.6 (2020); 7.9 (2021 proj.); 10.8 (2022 proj.).\n- Net domestic assets (percent of broad money stock): 12.4 (2019); 15.3 (2020); 5.1 (2021 proj.); 7.0 (2022 proj.).\n- Reserve money (annual percentage change): 16.6 (2019); 19.2 (2020); 12.2 (2021 proj.); 13.4 (2022 proj.).\n- Broad money (M2) (annual percentage change): 22.9 (2019); 23.0 (2020); 13.7 (2021 proj.); 17.8 (2022 proj.).\n- Central government finances (percent of GDP):\n  - Total revenue and grants: 14.4 (2019); 12.8 (2020); 14.9 (2021 proj.); 14.7 (2022 proj.).\n  - Revenue: 13.9 (2019); 11.8 (2020); 13.2 (2021 proj.); 14.1 (2022 proj.).\n  - Non-mining revenue: 12.0 (2019); 10.2 (2020); 11.5 (2021 proj.).\n  - Grants: 0.5 (2019); 1.0 (2020); 1.7 (2021 proj.).\n  - Total expenditure and net lending: 15.7 (2019); 17.1 (2020); 17.6 (2021 proj.).\n  - Current expenditure: 11.1 (2019).\n  - Interest payments (of current expenditure): 0.7 (2019); 0.9 (2020).\n  - Capital expenditure and net lending: 3.7 (2019).\n  - Overall budget balance including grants: -0.5 (2019); -2.9 (2020); -2.2 (2021 proj.).\n  - Overall budget balance excluding grants: -1.0 (2019); -3.9 (2020); -3.4 (2021 proj.).\n  - Basic fiscal balance: -1.4 (2019); -0.1 (2020).\n- Current account balance including official transfers (percent of GDP): -10.8 (2019); -13.7 (2020); -9.3 (2021 proj.); -11.6 (2022 proj.).\n- Exports, goods and services (US$ millions): 4,130.8 (2019); 8,996.0 (2020); 9,012.6 (2021 proj.); 8,134.6 (2022 proj.).\n- Imports, goods and services (US$ millions): 5,026.9 (2019); 9,938.4 (2020); 8,888.8 (2021 proj.); 7,679.6 (2022 proj.).\n- Overall balance of payments (US$ millions): 257.8 (2019); -131.0 (2020); 100.7 (2021 proj.); 204.8 (2022 proj.).\n- Net foreign assets of the central bank (US$ millions): 843.3 (2019); 948.5 (2020); 1,273.9 (2021 proj.); 1,645.1 (2022 proj.).\n- Gross available reserves (months of imports)²: 2.1 (2019); 2.2 (2020); 2.5 (2021 proj.).\n- External public debt, incl. IMF (percent of GDP): 19.9 (2019); 25.8 (2020); 28.6 (2021 proj.); 30.9 (2022 proj.).\n- Total public debt, incl. IMF (percent of GDP): 38.0 (2019); 43.4 (2020); 43.3 (2021 proj.); 42.9 (2022 proj.).\n- Nominal GDP (GNF billions): 124,109 (2019); 147,188 (2020); 172,280 (2021 proj.); 200,493 (2022 proj.)."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Administrative note",
      "content": "- It is expected that the next Article IV consultation with Guinea will be held on the standard 12‑month cycle.\n\nPress Release No. PR21/202, IMF Communications Department, June 30, 2021.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg\n- The Executive Board\n- IMF COVID-19 Hub\n- Policy Tracker\n- Financial Assistance\n- Questions & Answers\n- Guinea and the IMF\n- IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2021/06/30/pr21202-guinea-imf-executive-board-concludes-the-2021article-iv-consultation"
    }
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    "Published: June 30, 2021",
    "Real GDP growth: 7.1 percent of GDP in 2020.",
    "Sectoral growth:",
    "Inflation:",
    "Current account and reserves:",
    "Public debt and fiscal outcomes:",
    "Monetary and credit conditions:",
    "Health shocks:",
    "Policy responses:",
    "Growth projection: Real growth projected at 5.2 percent in 2021, supported by robust mining-sector growth and gradual recovery of the non-mining sector.",
    "Inflation outlook: Likely to remain above the BCRG's single digit target throughout 2021.",
    "Key downside risks:",
    "Key upside possibilities:",
    "General view:",
    "Fiscal and revenue policy:",
    "Monetary and exchange rate policy:",
    "Structural reforms and governance:",
    "GDP at constant prices (annual percentage change): 5.6 (2019); 7.1 (2020); 5.2 (2021 proj.); 6.1 (2022 proj.).",
    "Mining (annual percentage change): 9.4 (2019); 34.6 (2020); 7.7 (2021 proj.).",
    "Non-mining (annual percentage change): 4.9 (2019); 1.3 (2020); 4.5 (2021 proj.); 5.8 (2022 proj.).",
    "GDP deflator: 9.9 (2019); 10.7 (2020); 11.3 (2021 proj.); 9.7 (2022 proj.).",
    "GDP at market prices (annual percentage change): 16.2 (2019); 18.6 (2020); 17.0 (2021 proj.); 16.4 (2022 proj.).",
    "Consumer prices (average): 9.5 (2019); 10.6 (2020); 11.6 (2021 proj.).",
    "Exports, f.o.b. (US$ terms, annual percentage change): -0.8 (2019); 126.4 (2020); 0.6 (2021 proj.); -9.8 (2022 proj.).",
    "Imports, f.o.b. (US$ terms, annual percentage change): -21.1 (2019); 76.0 (2020); -4.7 (2021 proj.); -16.4 (2022 proj.).",
    "Net foreign assets (percent of broad money stock): 10.5 (2019); 8.6 (2020); 7.9 (2021 proj.); 10.8 (2022 proj.).",
    "Net domestic assets (percent of broad money stock): 12.4 (2019); 15.3 (2020); 5.1 (2021 proj.); 7.0 (2022 proj.).",
    "Reserve money (annual percentage change): 16.6 (2019); 19.2 (2020); 12.2 (2021 proj.); 13.4 (2022 proj.).",
    "Broad money (M2) (annual percentage change): 22.9 (2019); 23.0 (2020); 13.7 (2021 proj.); 17.8 (2022 proj.).",
    "Central government finances (percent of GDP):",
    "Current account balance including official transfers (percent of GDP): -10.8 (2019); -13.7 (2020); -9.3 (2021 proj.); -11.6 (2022 proj.).",
    "Exports, goods and services (US$ millions): 4,130.8 (2019); 8,996.0 (2020); 9,012.6 (2021 proj.); 8,134.6 (2022 proj.).",
    "Imports, goods and services (US$ millions): 5,026.9 (2019); 9,938.4 (2020); 8,888.8 (2021 proj.); 7,679.6 (2022 proj.).",
    "Overall balance of payments (US$ millions): 257.8 (2019); -131.0 (2020); 100.7 (2021 proj.); 204.8 (2022 proj.).",
    "Net foreign assets of the central bank (US$ millions): 843.3 (2019); 948.5 (2020); 1,273.9 (2021 proj.); 1,645.1 (2022 proj.).",
    "Gross available reserves (months of imports)²: 2.1 (2019); 2.2 (2020); 2.5 (2021 proj.).",
    "External public debt, incl. IMF (percent of GDP): 19.9 (2019); 25.8 (2020); 28.6 (2021 proj.); 30.9 (2022 proj.).",
    "Total public debt, incl. IMF (percent of GDP): 38.0 (2019); 43.4 (2020); 43.3 (2021 proj.); 42.9 (2022 proj.).",
    "Nominal GDP (GNF billions): 124,109 (2019); 147,188 (2020); 172,280 (2021 proj.); 200,493 (2022 proj.).",
    "It is expected that the next Article IV consultation with Guinea will be held on the standard 12‑month cycle.",
    "[https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg](https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg)",
    "[The Executive Board](https://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/memdir/eds.aspx)",
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    "[Questions & Answers](https://www.imf.org/en/About/FAQ/imf-response-to-covid-19)",
    "[Guinea and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/GIN/index.htm)",
    "[IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)",
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    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
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