{
  "title": "IMF Executive Board Concludes 2021 Article IV Consultation with Côte d’Ivoire",
  "publication": "IMF News, July 22, 2021",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2021/07/22/pr21223-cote-divoire-imf-executive-board-concludes-2021-article-iv-consultation",
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  "summary": "Executive Board concluded the Article IV 2021 consultation with Côte d’Ivoire on July 21, 2021.",
  "publishDate": "2021-07-22",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Overview and recent performance",
      "content": "- Executive Board concluded the Article IV 2021 consultation with Côte d’Ivoire on July 21, 2021.\n- Côte d’Ivoire demonstrated strong resilience to the pandemic, supported by:\n  - strong pre-crisis fundamentals;\n  - a rapid policy response;\n  - relatively lower dependency on sectors hit hardest elsewhere;\n  - support from the international community including the IMF.\n- Economic growth was estimated at 2 percent in 2020 despite a drop of \"some 4½ percent\" compared to the pre-COVID-19 forecast, ranking among sub-Saharan Africa’s best performing frontier market economies."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Growth, inflation, and outlook",
      "content": "- Rebound in activity that started in the second half of 2020 remains strong.\n- Growth projections:\n  - 2020: 2.0 percent (estimated)\n  - 2021: 6 percent (projected)\n  - Medium-term: around 6-6½ percent over 2021-26, contingent on receding pandemic and implementation of reforms.\n- Drivers of 2021 growth: recovery in exports and investment, abating pandemic headwinds, despite short-term electricity shortages.\n- Inflation:\n  - Temporarily on the rise, driven by pandemic-induced supply disruptions and energy shortages.\n  - Inflation figures: 2018: 0.4; 2019: 0.8; 2020: 2.4; 2021: 2.5 (in %)."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Fiscal developments and public debt",
      "content": "- Fiscal outcomes:\n  - Fiscal deficit reached 5.6 percent of GDP in 2020 as authorities increased spending to support firms and households.\n  - Authorities are continuing economic and social support policies while stepping up efforts to secure and administer vaccines.\n- Public debt:\n  - Public debt including debt guarantees rose to 49.8 percent of GDP in 2020.\n  - Public debt (table, does not include debt guarantees): 2018: 36.0 percent of GDP; 2019: 38.8; 2020: 47.7; 2021: 49.4; 2022: 50.5.\n- Current account:\n  - Expected to have widened to 3.5 percent of GDP in 2020 (text).\n  - Table: Current account (% GDP): 2018: -3.9; 2019: -3.5; 2020: -4.3; 2021: -4.2.\n- Central government finances (table series):\n  - Revenue and grants (% GDP): 2018: 14.8; 2019: 15.0; 2020: 14.7; 2021: 15.3; 2022: (value blank in table header context).\n  - Expenditure (% GDP): 2018: 17.7; 2019: 17.3; 2020: 20.6; 2021: 20.3; 2022: 19.9.\n  - Fiscal balance (% GDP): 2018: -2.9; 2019: -2.3; 2020: -5.6; 2021: -4.7.\n- Money and credit:\n  - Broad money (% change): 2018: 13.5; 2019: 11.0; 2020: 21.4; 2021: 7.9; 2022: 8.2.\n- External debt (table, does not include debt guarantees):\n  - 2018: 23.2 percent of GDP; 2019: 25.5; 2020: 30.0; 2021: 31.2; 2022: 30.9.\n- WAEMU reserves (in months of imports): 2018: 4.3; 2019: 4.6; 2020: … (ellipsis as in source)."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Risks and vulnerabilities",
      "content": "- Downside risks highlighted:\n  - Pandemic could prove harder to contain due to new variants or protracted vaccine rollout, muting global recovery.\n  - Sharp rise in global risk premia could complicate access to international markets.\n  - Domestically: prolongation of energy shortages and delays in reforms could reduce confidence and dampen private investment.\n  - Debt metrics could weaken if revenue mobilization continues to underperform.\n  - Security risk: potential deterioration at the Northern border.\n- Upside scenario:\n  - Implementation of a strong reform agenda under the incoming National Development Plan would further boost growth and investment."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Executive Board assessment and policy recommendations",
      "content": "- Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal and welcomed the Ivoirian economy’s resilience, attributing it to:\n  - authorities’ prompt response to COVID-19;\n  - a decade of sound macroeconomic policies;\n  - international support including the IMF.\n- Policy guidance and recommendations:\n  - Continue supportive policies until the recovery is well entrenched while preserving debt sustainability and fostering economic transformation.\n  - Relax fiscal stance in 2021 to accommodate additional investment and security spending.\n  - Return to the WAEMU fiscal deficit target as soon as feasible.\n  - Significantly boost domestic resource mobilization by:\n    - rationalizing tax expenditures;\n    - broadening the tax base;\n    - strengthening tax administration.\n  - Strengthen public financial management, promote digitalization, and improve fiscal transparency.\n  - Enhance social safety nets through proactive social policies.\n  - Maintain financial stability as supportive measures are withdrawn, requiring:\n    - continued strong financial sector supervision;\n    - swift restructuring of public banks.\n  - Support the New National Development Plan to promote inclusive growth, structural transformation, and private sector development.\n  - Promote good governance and improve the business environment, including swift adoption of the national strategy to fight corruption.\n  - Promote financial inclusion, improve labor market effectiveness to support formalization, and enhance resilience to climate change.\n  - Rebuild fiscal buffers, pursue a prudent debt strategy, and advance reforms to deepen regional financial markets.\n- Directors concluded that Côte d’Ivoire’s capacity to repay the Fund remains adequate and noted a moderate risk of debt distress with limited space to absorb shocks."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Selected economic indicators and social statistics",
      "content": "- Population (2020): 26.9 million\n- Gini Index (2015): 41.5\n- Per capita GDP (2020): 2278 USD\n- Life Expectancy (years): 58\n- Share of population below the poverty line (2018): 39.5%\n- Literacy rate: 47.2%\n- Output — Real GDP Growth (%): 2018: 6.9; 2019: 6.2; 2020: 2.0; 2021: 6.0; 2022: 6.5.\n- Prices — Inflation (in %): 2018: 0.4; 2019: 0.8; 2020: 2.4; 2021: 2.5; 2022: 2.2.\n- Balance of payments — FDI (% GDP): 2018: 1.3; 2019: 1.0; 2020: 1.1; 2021: 1.2.\n- Exchange rate — Real effective exchange rate (% change): 2018: -4.0; 2019: 5.2.\n\nPress Release No. 21/223 — IMF Communications Department — July 22, 2021.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg\n- The Executive Board\n- IMF COVID-19 Hub\n- Policy Tracker\n- Financial Assistance\n- Questions & Answers\n- PRESS CENTER\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2021/07/22/pr21223-cote-divoire-imf-executive-board-concludes-2021-article-iv-consultation"
    }
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    "Published: July 22, 2021",
    "Executive Board concluded the Article IV 2021 consultation with Côte d’Ivoire on July 21, 2021.",
    "Côte d’Ivoire demonstrated strong resilience to the pandemic, supported by:",
    "Economic growth was estimated at 2 percent in 2020 despite a drop of \"some 4½ percent\" compared to the pre-COVID-19 forecast, ranking among sub-Saharan Africa’s best performing frontier market economies.",
    "Rebound in activity that started in the second half of 2020 remains strong.",
    "Growth projections:",
    "Drivers of 2021 growth: recovery in exports and investment, abating pandemic headwinds, despite short-term electricity shortages.",
    "Inflation:",
    "Fiscal outcomes:",
    "Public debt:",
    "Current account:",
    "Central government finances (table series):",
    "Money and credit:",
    "External debt (table, does not include debt guarantees):",
    "WAEMU reserves (in months of imports): 2018: 4.3; 2019: 4.6; 2020: … (ellipsis as in source).",
    "Downside risks highlighted:",
    "Upside scenario:",
    "Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal and welcomed the Ivoirian economy’s resilience, attributing it to:",
    "Policy guidance and recommendations:",
    "Directors concluded that Côte d’Ivoire’s capacity to repay the Fund remains adequate and noted a moderate risk of debt distress with limited space to absorb shocks.",
    "Population (2020): 26.9 million",
    "Gini Index (2015): 41.5",
    "Per capita GDP (2020): 2278 USD",
    "Life Expectancy (years): 58",
    "Share of population below the poverty line (2018): 39.5%",
    "Literacy rate: 47.2%",
    "Output — Real GDP Growth (%): 2018: 6.9; 2019: 6.2; 2020: 2.0; 2021: 6.0; 2022: 6.5.",
    "Prices — Inflation (in %): 2018: 0.4; 2019: 0.8; 2020: 2.4; 2021: 2.5; 2022: 2.2.",
    "Balance of payments — FDI (% GDP): 2018: 1.3; 2019: 1.0; 2020: 1.1; 2021: 1.2.",
    "Exchange rate — Real effective exchange rate (% change): 2018: -4.0; 2019: 5.2.",
    "[https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg](https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg)",
    "[The Executive Board](https://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/memdir/eds.aspx)",
    "[IMF COVID-19 Hub](https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/imf-and-covid19)",
    "[Policy Tracker](https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/imf-and-covid19/Policy-Responses-to-COVID-19)",
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    "[Questions & Answers](https://www.imf.org/en/About/FAQ/imf-response-to-covid-19)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
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