{ "title": "IMF Executive Board Concludes 2021 Article IV Consultation with Antigua and Barbuda", "publication": "IMF News, August 12, 2021", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2021/08/12/pr21246-antigua-and-barbuda-imf-executive-board-concludes-2021-article-iv-consultation", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2021/08/12/pr21246-antigua-and-barbuda-imf-executive-board-concludes-2021-article-iv-consultation", "overlayPath": "/en/news/articles/2021/08/12/pr21246-antigua-and-barbuda-imf-executive-board-concludes-2021-article-iv-consultation/index.md", "summary": "Economy contracted by an estimated 17.3 percent in 2020.", "publishDate": "2021-08-12", "sections": [ { "heading": "Pandemic impact and near-term outlook", "content": "- Economy contracted by an estimated 17.3 percent in 2020.\n- Projected to contract by 1 percent in 2021 before recovery in the second half of 2021.\n- Vaccination: about one-third of the population fully vaccinated.\n- Tourism:\n - Collapse of tourism-related activities following domestic lockdown and border closure in early 2020.\n - Gradual pick-up in tourism activity expected with the first cruise ship arrival in July (2021) and favorable travel risk ratings in key source markets.\n - Downside risks to the outlook are significant, primarily from a more prolonged pandemic due to the spread of new COVID-19 variants and limited vaccine availability both at home and abroad." }, { "heading": "Fiscal position, arrears, and public debt", "content": "- Pandemic intensified cash flow pressures and led to a further accumulation of domestic and external arrears.\n- Public debt and gross financing needs sharply increased.\n- Government adopted an economic plan centered on a Medium-Term Fiscal Strategy with objectives to:\n - restore debt sustainability;\n - gradually resolve outstanding domestic and external arrears;\n - prioritize policies that tackle COVID-19 and improve healthcare delivery;\n - protect the vulnerable;\n - create conditions for durable growth and job creation.\n- Executive Directors stressed urgency of restoring debt sustainability and welcomed the Medium-Term Fiscal Strategy anchored on domestic revenue mobilization and rationalized spending.\n- Directors noted that achieving fiscal targets will require additional measures and efforts to secure long-term financing on favorable terms.\n- Directors encouraged putting in place a concrete arrears clearance plan, continuing creditor engagement, and avoiding new arrears.\n- Noted potential benefits of an SDR allocation in rebuilding reserves and helping to meet the financing gap if needed." }, { "heading": "Public financial management and structural reforms", "content": "- Directors welcomed planned reforms to improve public financial management, tax administration, and targeting of social programs.\n- Initial steps taken to contain the wage bill were recognized; Directors recommended considering a long-term strategy to reform the public sector.\n- Further steps essential to strengthen governance and financial position of state-owned enterprises.\n- Directors welcomed initiatives to boost growth and job creation, diversify the economy, and improve the business environment.\n- Emphasized importance of upgrading public infrastructure, including to support digitalization.\n- Directors looked forward to completion of the National Adaptation Plan to build physical and financial resilience to climate change and natural disasters." }, { "heading": "Financial sector stability and supervision", "content": "- Directors called for efforts to safeguard financial stability to support economic recovery.\n- Given deteriorating asset quality and profitability, they saw a need to closely monitor risks, particularly to credit unions.\n- Interconnectedness between banks and non-banks warrants a coordinated supervisory approach.\n- Encouraged authorities to formalize a national crisis management plan in collaboration with the ECCB.\n- Recommended gradually reducing reliance on domestic bank financing to limit sovereign financial risks.\n- Called for additional efforts to advance AML/CFT reforms, building on progress already made." }, { "heading": "Executive Board assessment — summary points", "content": "- Commended authorities for swift containment measures and support for the vulnerable.\n- Envisaged a gradual recovery, but highlighted significant downside risks: prolonged pandemic, delays in fiscal reforms, and natural disasters.\n- Stressed need to continue supporting economic recovery while stabilizing public finances and promoting competitiveness and sustainable growth." }, { "heading": "Key economic and financial indicators (selected, as published)", "content": "- Population (2019): 97,118\n- Adult literacy rate (2015): 99\n- GDP per capita (US$, 2019): 17,113\n- Human Development Index (2019, of 189 economies): 78\n- Life expectancy at birth (years, 2019): 77\n- Mortality rate (under 5, per 1,000 live births, 2019): 6.6\n\n- Real GDP (annual percentage change): 2016: 5.5; 2017: 3.1; 2018: 7.0; 2019: 3.4; 2020: -17.3; 2021: -1.0; 2022: 8.5; 2023: 5.6; 2024: 4.4; 2025: 2.7; 2026: (value not provided)\n- Nominal GDP (annual percentage change): 2016: 7.5; 2017: 2.2; 2018: 9.4; 2019: 3.5; 2020: -16.4; 2021: 1.0; 2022: 10.6; 2023: 7.7; 2024: 6.5; 2025: 5.4; 2026: 4.8\n- Consumer prices (end of period): 2016: -1.1; 2017: 2.4; 2018: 1.7; 2019: 0.7; 2020: 2.8; 2021: 2.0\n- Consumer prices (period average): 2016: -0.5; 2017: 1.2; 2018: 1.4; 2019: 1.1; 2020: 2.0\n\n- Central government (Percent of GDP):\n - Primary balance: 2016: -1.2; 2017: -3.7; 2018: -1.3; 2019: 1.3; 2020: 2.5\n - Overall balance: 2016: -2.8; 2017: -2.5; 2018: -4.0; 2019: -6.3; 2020: -4.1; 2021: -3.5; 2022: -1.7; 2023: -0.4; 2024: 0.5\n - Total revenue and grants: 2016: 24.5; 2017: 20.7; 2018: 19.8; 2019: 18.9; 2020: 20.1; 2021: 23.7; 2022: 22.7; 2023: 23.8; 2024: 24.3; 2025: 24.4\n - Total expenditure: 2016: 24.7; 2017: 23.6; 2018: 22.3; 2019: 23.0; 2020: 26.4; 2021: 27.8; 2022: 26.1; 2023: 25.6; 2024: 23.9\n\n- External sector:\n - Current account balance (percent of GDP): 2016: -2.4; 2017: -7.8; 2018: -14.5; 2019: -6.7; 2020: -12.3; 2021: -9.9; 2022: -8.1; 2023: -7.6; 2024: -7.5; 2025: -7.2\n - Trade balance (percent of GDP): 2016: -27.4; 2017: -31.1; 2018: -36.1; 2019: -34.1; 2020: -25.1; 2021: -31.5; 2022: -33.6; 2023: -34.8; 2024: -34.7\n - Nonfactor service balance (percent of GDP): 2016: 35.7; 2017: 32.7; 2018: 30.1; 2019: 36.5; 2020: 21.1; 2021: 17.4; 2022: 28.5; 2023: 32.2; 2024: 33.8; 2025: 33.7\n - Gross tourism receipts (percent of GDP): 2016: 52.4; 2017: 50.2; 2018: 48.3; 2019: 54.7; 2020: 21.5; 2021: 38.6; 2022: 46.2; 2023: 51.0; 2024: 50.8; 2025: 50.9\n\n- External public sector debt (percent of GDP): 2016: 36.2; 2017: 37.5; 2018: 36.7; 2019: 37.1; 2020: 47.4; 2021: 54.4; 2022: 53.8; 2023: 52.7; 2024: 51.4; 2025: 50.1; 2026: 48.4\n\n- Memorandum items:\n - Net imputed international reserves (US$ million): 2016: 330; 2017: 314; 2018: 328; 2019: 279; 2020: 222; 2021: 221; 2022: 253; 2023: 290; 2024: 335; 2025: 374; 2026: 401\n - Months of prospective imports: 2016: 5.1; 2017: 2.9; 2018: 3.2\n - GDP at market prices (EC$ million): 2016: 3,879; 2017: 3,964; 2018: 4,334; 2019: 4,487; 2020: 3,752; 2021: 3,791; 2022: 4,194; 2023: 4,518; 2024: 4,812; 2025: 5,073; 2026: 5,316\n - Public debt stock (EC$ million) 1/, 2/: 2016: 3,341; 2017: 3,654; 2018: 3,803; 2019: 3,702; 2020: 3,748; 2021: 3,997; 2022: 4,109; 2023: 4,193; 2024: 4,220; 2025: 4,203; 2026: 4,173\n - Public debt stock (percent of GDP): 2016: 86.1; 2017: 92.2; 2018: 87.7; 2019: 82.5; 2020: 99.9; 2021: 105.4; 2022: 98.0; 2023: 92.8; 2024: 82.8; 2025: 78.5\n\n- Sources noted in the release: Country authorities, ECCB, UN Human Development Report, World Bank and IMF staff estimates and projections.\n- Footnotes in the release:\n 1/ Includes stock of principal and interest arrears, unpaid vouchers, and suppliers' credits.\n 2/ Includes central government guarantees of state enterprises' and statutory bodies' debt.\n\nSource: IMF press release — \"IMF Executive Board Concludes 2021 Article IV Consultation with Antigua and Barbuda\", August 12, 2021.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg\n- The Executive Board\n- Antigua and Barbuda and the IMF\n- IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2021/08/12/pr21246-antigua-and-barbuda-imf-executive-board-concludes-2021-article-iv-consultation" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2021/08/12/pr21246-antigua-and-barbuda-imf-executive-board-concludes-2021-article-iv-consultation/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2021/08/12/pr21246-antigua-and-barbuda-imf-executive-board-concludes-2021-article-iv-consultation/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2021/08/12/pr21246-antigua-and-barbuda-imf-executive-board-concludes-2021-article-iv-consultation/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: August 12, 2021", "Economy contracted by an estimated 17.3 percent in 2020.", "Projected to contract by 1 percent in 2021 before recovery in the second half of 2021.", "Vaccination: about one-third of the population fully vaccinated.", "Tourism:", "Pandemic intensified cash flow pressures and led to a further accumulation of domestic and external arrears.", "Public debt and gross financing needs sharply increased.", "Government adopted an economic plan centered on a Medium-Term Fiscal Strategy with objectives to:", "Executive Directors stressed urgency of restoring debt sustainability and welcomed the Medium-Term Fiscal Strategy anchored on domestic revenue mobilization and rationalized spending.", "Directors noted that achieving fiscal targets will require additional measures and efforts to secure long-term financing on favorable terms.", "Directors encouraged putting in place a concrete arrears clearance plan, continuing creditor engagement, and avoiding new arrears.", "Noted potential benefits of an SDR allocation in rebuilding reserves and helping to meet the financing gap if needed.", "Directors welcomed planned reforms to improve public financial management, tax administration, and targeting of social programs.", "Initial steps taken to contain the wage bill were recognized; Directors recommended considering a long-term strategy to reform the public sector.", "Further steps essential to strengthen governance and financial position of state-owned enterprises.", "Directors welcomed initiatives to boost growth and job creation, diversify the economy, and improve the business environment.", "Emphasized importance of upgrading public infrastructure, including to support digitalization.", "Directors looked forward to completion of the National Adaptation Plan to build physical and financial resilience to climate change and natural disasters.", "Directors called for efforts to safeguard financial stability to support economic recovery.", "Given deteriorating asset quality and profitability, they saw a need to closely monitor risks, particularly to credit unions.", "Interconnectedness between banks and non-banks warrants a coordinated supervisory approach.", "Encouraged authorities to formalize a national crisis management plan in collaboration with the ECCB.", "Recommended gradually reducing reliance on domestic bank financing to limit sovereign financial risks.", "Called for additional efforts to advance AML/CFT reforms, building on progress already made.", "Commended authorities for swift containment measures and support for the vulnerable.", "Envisaged a gradual recovery, but highlighted significant downside risks: prolonged pandemic, delays in fiscal reforms, and natural disasters.", "Stressed need to continue supporting economic recovery while stabilizing public finances and promoting competitiveness and sustainable growth.", "Population (2019): 97,118", "Adult literacy rate (2015): 99", "GDP per capita (US$, 2019): 17,113", "Human Development Index (2019, of 189 economies): 78", "Life expectancy at birth (years, 2019): 77", "Mortality rate (under 5, per 1,000 live births, 2019): 6.6", "Real GDP (annual percentage change): 2016: 5.5; 2017: 3.1; 2018: 7.0; 2019: 3.4; 2020: -17.3; 2021: -1.0; 2022: 8.5; 2023: 5.6; 2024: 4.4; 2025: 2.7; 2026: (value not provided)", "Nominal GDP (annual percentage change): 2016: 7.5; 2017: 2.2; 2018: 9.4; 2019: 3.5; 2020: -16.4; 2021: 1.0; 2022: 10.6; 2023: 7.7; 2024: 6.5; 2025: 5.4; 2026: 4.8", "Consumer prices (end of period): 2016: -1.1; 2017: 2.4; 2018: 1.7; 2019: 0.7; 2020: 2.8; 2021: 2.0", "Consumer prices (period average): 2016: -0.5; 2017: 1.2; 2018: 1.4; 2019: 1.1; 2020: 2.0", "Central government (Percent of GDP):", "External sector:", "External public sector debt (percent of GDP): 2016: 36.2; 2017: 37.5; 2018: 36.7; 2019: 37.1; 2020: 47.4; 2021: 54.4; 2022: 53.8; 2023: 52.7; 2024: 51.4; 2025: 50.1; 2026: 48.4", "Memorandum items:", "Sources noted in the release: Country authorities, ECCB, UN Human Development Report, World Bank and IMF staff estimates and projections.", "Footnotes in the release:", "[https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg](https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg)", "[The Executive Board](https://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/memdir/eds.aspx)", "[Antigua and Barbuda and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/ATG/index.htm)", "[IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)", "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)", "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)", "[http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm](http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm)", "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)" ], "alternates": { "markdown": "/en/news/articles/2021/08/12/pr21246-antigua-and-barbuda-imf-executive-board-concludes-2021-article-iv-consultation/index.md", "json": "/en/news/articles/2021/08/12/pr21246-antigua-and-barbuda-imf-executive-board-concludes-2021-article-iv-consultation/index.json", "bundleManifest": "/en/news/articles/2021/08/12/pr21246-antigua-and-barbuda-imf-executive-board-concludes-2021-article-iv-consultation/bundle-manifest.json" }, "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-26T00:36:04.705Z" }