{
  "title": "Transcript of October 2021 World Economic Outlook Press Briefing",
  "publication": "IMF News, October 13, 2021",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2021/10/13/tr101221-transcript-of-october-2021-world-economic-outlook-press-briefing",
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  "summary": "Global growth projection for this year revised down marginally to 5.9 percent (July forecast comparison).",
  "publishDate": "2021-10-13",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Global outlook — key findings",
      "content": "- Global growth projection for this year revised down marginally to 5.9 percent (July forecast comparison).\n- Global growth projection for 2022 unchanged at 4.9 percent.\n- Pandemic (Delta variant) has driven the recorded global COVID‑19 death toll close to 5 million.\n- If COVID‑19 has a prolonged impact into the medium term, it could reduce global GDP by cumulative $5.3 trillion over the next five years relative to the current projection.\n- Aggregate output for the advanced economy group is expected to regain its pre‑pandemic trend path next year and exceed it by 0.9 percent in 2024.\n- Aggregate output for the emerging market and developing economy group, excluding China, is expected to remain 5.5 percent below the pre‑pandemic forecast in 2024."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Divergences, vaccines, and health priorities",
      "content": "- Great vaccine divide:\n  - Over 60 percent of the population in advanced economies are fully vaccinated (some receiving booster shots).\n  - About 96 percent of the population in low‑income countries remain unvaccinated.\n  - Africa: less than 4 percent of the population vaccinated.\n- Vaccination targets and immediate priorities:\n  - Vaccinate at least 40 percent of the population in every country by the end of this year.\n  - Vaccinate 70 percent by the middle of next year.\n  - Actions required: high‑income countries fulfill vaccine donation pledges, coordinate with manufacturers to prioritize deliveries to COVAX, and remove trade restrictions on vaccines and their inputs.\n- Health financing gap:\n  - Closing the $20 billion residue of grant funding gap for testing, therapeutics, and genomic surveillance is urgent to save lives now and keep vaccines fit for purpose.\n- Regional production and technology transfer:\n  - Vaccine manufacturers in high‑income countries should support expansion of regional production in developing countries through financing and technology transfers."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Inflation, supply disruptions, and monetary policy",
      "content": "- Supply disruptions from pandemic outbreaks and climate events have caused shortages of key inputs, lowering manufacturing activity and feeding consumer price inflation in many countries.\n- Food prices have increased the most in low‑income countries, exacerbating food insecurity.\n- Monetary policy stance:\n  - Headline inflation is projected to likely return to pre‑pandemic levels by the middle of next year for the group of advanced economies and emerging and developing economies, amid high uncertainty.\n  - Considerable heterogeneity across countries; upside risks for some countries like the U.S. and the United Kingdom and some emerging market and developing economies.\n  - Central banks should be prepared to act quickly if risks of rising inflation expectations become material: chart contingent actions, announce clear triggers, and act according to that communication.\n- Indicators to monitor for durable inflation:\n  - Medium and long‑term inflation expectations with every data release.\n  - Wage inflation (noting elevated wage inflation in the U.S. concentrated in some sectors).\n  - Shelter inflation and spillovers from housing‑price run‑ups."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Fiscal policy, public debt, and structural priorities",
      "content": "- Policy tradeoffs have become more complex as risks to economic prospects increased.\n- With public debt at record highs, initiatives should be rooted in credible medium‑term frameworks backed by feasible revenue and spending measures to lower financing costs and increase fiscal space.\n- Fiscal prioritization:\n  - Healthcare spending should continue to be prioritized.\n  - Lifelines and transfers should become increasingly targeted and reinforced by retraining and support for reallocation.\n  - As health outcomes improve, policy emphasis should shift to long‑term structural goals."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Multilateral policy proposals and financial instruments",
      "content": "- IMF and SDRs:\n  - Built on the historic $650 billion SDR allocation.\n  - Call for countries with strong external positions to voluntarily channel their SDRs into the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust.\n  - IMF exploring the establishment of a Resilience and Sustainability Trust to provide long‑term funding for sustainable growth investments.\n- Debt and liquidity support:\n  - Concerted multilateral efforts needed to ensure international liquidity is adequate for constrained economies.\n  - Faster implementation of the G‑20 Common Framework to restructure unsustainable debt would help limit divergences across countries."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Regional and country highlights",
      "content": "- China:\n  - Slight downgrade reflecting somewhat stronger than anticipated fiscal tightening; additional challenges in the property sector and supply chain disruptions.\n  - IMF regards CPTPP as a high‑quality trade agreement and considers it positive for the world if more countries join.\n- Brazil:\n  - Small downgrade due to effects from rising monetary policy rates amid high inflation and a downward revision for the U.S. (a major trading partner). (Question referenced forecasts of 1.5 percent this year and 2.1 percent in 2026.)\n- India:\n  - No change to growth forecasts for this year and next; growth forecasts referenced in question as 9.5 and 8.5 percent for financial years 2022 and 2023.\n  - Room to provide more targeted support if the pandemic worsens; need for a credible medium‑term strategy to bring down the debt‑to‑GDP ratio.\n- Philippines:\n  - Projected growth: 3.2 percent this year and 6.3 percent in 2022.\n  - Near‑term downgrade due to second‑quarter pandemic surge; recovery expected to strengthen with vaccine rollout and policy support.\n- Africa:\n  - Severe vaccine access shortfalls (less than 4 percent vaccinated); urgent need for vaccine deliveries and prioritization to COVAX.\n  - Additional financing requirement estimated at around $250 billion over the next five years to meet development goals.\n- Mexico:\n  - Recovery becoming broader‑based (exports/manufacturing and services).\n  - Rolling back energy‑sector reforms increases policy uncertainty and can inhibit private‑sector investment."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Financial stability and non‑bank sector risks",
      "content": "- Increased risk‑taking in financial markets and rising fragilities in the non‑bank financial institutional sector pose policy challenges.\n- Policy clarity and consistent actions are essential to avoid unnecessary policy accidents that can roil financial markets (examples cited: U.S. debt ceiling brinkmanship, disorderly debt restructurings in China's property sector, escalating cross‑border trade and technology tensions)."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy recommendations (enumerated)",
      "content": "- Global health and vaccines:\n  - Fulfill vaccine donation pledges.\n  - Prioritize deliveries to COVAX.\n  - Remove trade restrictions on vaccines and inputs.\n  - Close the $20 billion residue grant funding gap for testing, therapeutics, and genomic surveillance.\n  - Expand regional vaccine production via financing and technology transfers.\n- Climate and green transition:\n  - More ambitious commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions at the upcoming United Nations Climate Change Conference.\n  - Policy strategy to include an international carbon price floor adjusted to country circumstances, a green public investment and research subsidy push, and compensatory targeted transfers to households.\n- Fiscal and debt policy:\n  - Adopt credible medium‑term fiscal frameworks with feasible revenue and spending measures.\n  - Channel SDRs voluntarily to Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust; consider Resilience and Sustainability Trust for long‑term funding.\n  - Accelerate implementation of G‑20 Common Framework for debt restructuring.\n- Monetary policy:\n  - Monitor inflation expectations, wage inflation, and shelter inflation closely.\n  - Central banks should be prepared to act quickly with contingent plans and clear communication to avoid de‑anchoring expectations.\n\nTranscript of October 2021 World Economic Outlook Press Briefing — October 12, 2021, IMF Communications Department.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- Gita Gopinath\n- People's Republic of China and the IMF\n- Argentina and the IMF\n- Brazil and the IMF\n- India and the IMF\n- Philippines and the IMF\n- Transcripts\n- PRESS CENTER\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2021/10/13/tr101221-transcript-of-october-2021-world-economic-outlook-press-briefing"
    }
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    "Published: October 13, 2021",
    "Global growth projection for this year revised down marginally to 5.9 percent (July forecast comparison).",
    "Global growth projection for 2022 unchanged at 4.9 percent.",
    "Pandemic (Delta variant) has driven the recorded global COVID‑19 death toll close to 5 million.",
    "If COVID‑19 has a prolonged impact into the medium term, it could reduce global GDP by cumulative $5.3 trillion over the next five years relative to the current projection.",
    "Aggregate output for the advanced economy group is expected to regain its pre‑pandemic trend path next year and exceed it by 0.9 percent in 2024.",
    "Aggregate output for the emerging market and developing economy group, excluding China, is expected to remain 5.5 percent below the pre‑pandemic forecast in 2024.",
    "Great vaccine divide:",
    "Vaccination targets and immediate priorities:",
    "Health financing gap:",
    "Regional production and technology transfer:",
    "Supply disruptions from pandemic outbreaks and climate events have caused shortages of key inputs, lowering manufacturing activity and feeding consumer price inflation in many countries.",
    "Food prices have increased the most in low‑income countries, exacerbating food insecurity.",
    "Monetary policy stance:",
    "Indicators to monitor for durable inflation:",
    "Policy tradeoffs have become more complex as risks to economic prospects increased.",
    "With public debt at record highs, initiatives should be rooted in credible medium‑term frameworks backed by feasible revenue and spending measures to lower financing costs and increase fiscal space.",
    "Fiscal prioritization:",
    "IMF and SDRs:",
    "Debt and liquidity support:",
    "China:",
    "Brazil:",
    "India:",
    "Philippines:",
    "Africa:",
    "Mexico:",
    "Increased risk‑taking in financial markets and rising fragilities in the non‑bank financial institutional sector pose policy challenges.",
    "Policy clarity and consistent actions are essential to avoid unnecessary policy accidents that can roil financial markets (examples cited: U.S. debt ceiling brinkmanship, disorderly debt restructurings in China's property sector, escalating cross‑border trade and technology tensions).",
    "Global health and vaccines:",
    "Climate and green transition:",
    "Fiscal and debt policy:",
    "Monetary policy:",
    "[Gita Gopinath](https://www.imf.org/en/about/senior-officials/bios/shirin-hamid)",
    "[People's Republic of China and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/CHN/index.htm)",
    "[Argentina and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/ARG/index.htm)",
    "[Brazil and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/BRA/index.htm)",
    "[India and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/IND/index.htm)",
    "[Philippines and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/PHL/index.htm)",
    "[Transcripts](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
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  "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-26T00:41:56.076Z"
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