{
  "title": "Opening Remarks at the Press Briefing on the Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa",
  "publication": "IMF News, October 21, 2021",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2021/10/21/sp102121-opening-remarks-at-the-ssa-regional-economic-outlook-press-briefing",
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  "summary": "Opening Remarks at the Press Briefing on the Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa",
  "publishDate": "2021-10-21",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Pandemic dynamics and vaccine rollout",
      "content": "- The pandemic has produced \"two worlds\": robust recoveries in most advanced economies with plentiful vaccine supply, and slower recoveries in vulnerable emerging and developing economies with limited policy space and slower vaccine rollout.\n- Since the April 2021 Regional Economic Outlook, sub‑Saharan Africa has been hit by a third wave driven by the more contagious Delta variant, with infection rates \"often rising to triple or quadruple what they were in January.\"\n- That wave has eased over the past month, but repeated waves are likely going forward.\n- Vaccination constraints:\n  - \"Only around 3 percent of the population in sub-Saharan Africa have been fully vaccinated.\"\n  - Contrast: \"most advanced and many EM countries that are close to the 60 percent or more level of vaccination.\"\n  - Causes cited: stockpiling by advanced economies, export restrictions by major vaccine manufacturing countries, and demands for booster shots in advanced economies.\n- Lockdowns remain the primary containment tool where vaccines are limited; recent lockdowns have been less severe than early-pandemic measures but their cumulative impact on economic activity and confidence is significant."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Economic outlook and key statistics",
      "content": "- Growth projections:\n  - \"sub‑Saharan Africa’s economy will grow by 3.7 percent in 2021 and 3.8 in 2022.\"\n- Recovery characteristics:\n  - The recovery is supported by favorable external conditions on trade and commodity prices, improved harvests, and increased agricultural production in a number of countries.\n  - The 2021–22 recovery follows the sharp contraction in 2020 but remains the slowest relative to other regions.\n  - Advanced economies are projected to return to their precrisis path by 2023, while \"the pandemic looks to have durably lowered the path of real GDP in sub-Saharan Africa, suggesting a loss of real per capita output of close to 5½ percent relative to the pre-crisis path.\"\n- Drivers of divergence: slow vaccine rollout and stark differences in policy space between sub‑Saharan Africa and advanced economies."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Major challenges and policy priorities",
      "content": "- Inequality and poverty:\n  - The pandemic has pushed \"some 30 million people back into extreme poverty\" and worsened inequality across income groups and subnational regions.\n  - Rising food (and fuel) prices threaten to further erode gains in poverty reduction, health outcomes, and food security.\n  - Policy imperative: \"Policies need to be squarely focused on addressing this challenge.\"\n- The policy trilemma for African policymakers:\n  - Pressing spending needs to address social, human capital, and infrastructure gaps;\n  - Limited borrowing capacity given already high public debt levels in most cases;\n  - The time consuming and politically difficult nature of mobilizing tax revenues.\n  - How deftly countries navigate this trilemma will significantly affect macroeconomic wellbeing and growth prospects.\n- International solidarity and financing:\n  - Divergent health, poverty, and economic outcomes underscore the \"critical importance of international solidarity and support.\"\n  - IMF vaccination goals: \"to vaccinate at least 40 percent of the total population of all countries by the end of 2021 and 70 percent by the first half of 2022.\"\n  - For sub‑Saharan Africa these goals are \"ambitious and will require a marked change in strategy by both advanced economies and sub‑Saharan African countries.\"\n  - \"Significant external concessional financing is needed to limit and eventually close the divergent recovery paths\" and prevent divergence from hardening into permanent fault lines.\n  - Need for nimble and effective debt restructuring mechanisms \"to avoid the burden of adjustment falling on the poor and facilitate quicker economic recovery.\""
    },
    {
      "heading": "IMF actions and regional opportunity",
      "content": "- IMF support:\n  - The recent general SDR allocation has \"boosted the region’s reserves, easing some of the burden on authorities as they guide their countries’ recovery.\"\n  - Ongoing efforts to re-channel SDRs from countries with strong external positions to countries with weaker fundamentals to bolster regional resilience.\n- Demographic opportunity:\n  - Over the next three decades, the global population is set to grow \"by about 2 billion people, with half of that increase coming from sub‑Saharan Africa.\"\n  - This presents an opportunity: \"a growing pool of human talent and ingenuity\" with a potentially telling effect on global economic, social, and political trajectories.\n\nOpening Remarks at the Press Briefing on the Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa by Abebe Aemro Selassie, Director, African Department, IMF, October 21, 2021\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- Abebe Aemro Selassie\n- Speeches\n- PRESS CENTER\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2021/10/21/sp102121-opening-remarks-at-the-ssa-regional-economic-outlook-press-briefing"
    }
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    "Published: October 21, 2021",
    "The pandemic has produced \"two worlds\": robust recoveries in most advanced economies with plentiful vaccine supply, and slower recoveries in vulnerable emerging and developing economies with limited policy space and slower vaccine rollout.",
    "Since the April 2021 Regional Economic Outlook, sub‑Saharan Africa has been hit by a third wave driven by the more contagious Delta variant, with infection rates \"often rising to triple or quadruple what they were in January.\"",
    "That wave has eased over the past month, but repeated waves are likely going forward.",
    "Vaccination constraints:",
    "Lockdowns remain the primary containment tool where vaccines are limited; recent lockdowns have been less severe than early-pandemic measures but their cumulative impact on economic activity and confidence is significant.",
    "Growth projections:",
    "Recovery characteristics:",
    "Drivers of divergence: slow vaccine rollout and stark differences in policy space between sub‑Saharan Africa and advanced economies.",
    "Inequality and poverty:",
    "The policy trilemma for African policymakers:",
    "International solidarity and financing:",
    "IMF support:",
    "Demographic opportunity:",
    "[Abebe Aemro Selassie](https://www.imf.org/en/About/senior-officials/Bios/abebe-selassie)",
    "[Speeches](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
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