{
  "title": "Transcript of October 2021 African Sub-Saharan Press Briefing",
  "publication": "IMF News, October 21, 2021",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2021/10/21/tr102121-transcript-of-african-sub-saharan-department-press-briefing",
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  "summary": "Two divergent realities: advanced economies with plentiful vaccine supply and faster recovery; vulnerable emerging and developing economies with slower vaccine rollouts and constrained policy space.",
  "publishDate": "2021-10-21",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Pandemic, vaccination, and global context",
      "content": "- Two divergent realities: advanced economies with plentiful vaccine supply and faster recovery; vulnerable emerging and developing economies with slower vaccine rollouts and constrained policy space.\n- Third wave driven by delta variant hit Sub-Saharan Africa since April; infections rose to \"triple, quadruple\" earlier rates and this wave \"has now eased over the past month or so\" but repeated waves are likely.\n- Vaccination status:\n  - \"only around 3 percent of the population of Sub-Saharan Africa has been fully vaccinated\"\n  - Many advanced economies \"are close to the 60 percent or more level of vaccination\"\n- IMF vaccination plan goals:\n  - \"vaccinate at least 40 percent of the total population of all countries by the end of 2021\"\n  - \"70 percent by the first half of 2022\"\n- Causes of slow vaccine rollout cited: stockpiling by advanced countries, export restrictions by major vaccine manufacturing countries, demands for booster shots in advanced economies."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Regional economic outlook and key statistics",
      "content": "- Growth projections:\n  - Sub-Saharan Africa growth \"will grow by 3.7 percent this year\"\n  - \"3.8 percent in 2022\"\n- Recovery drivers: favorable external conditions on trade and commodity prices, improved harvests and increased agricultural production.\n- Relative performance: recovery is \"the slowest growth relative to most other regions of the world\"; advanced economies projected to return to pre-crisis paths by 2023.\n- Durable income loss: pandemic \"looks to have durably lowered the path of real GDP in Sub-Saharan Africa, suggesting a loss of real per capita income of close to 5.5 percent relative to the pre-crisis path.\"\n- Poverty and inequality:\n  - \"The pandemic has thrown some 30 million people back into extreme poverty\"\n  - Rising food and fuel prices threaten further erosion of poverty reduction, health, and food security gains.\n- Country-specific highlights and figures:\n  - Botswana: projected growth \"9.2 percent for 2021\" (partly a bounce from a significant 2020 contraction; medium-term growth expected to revert toward pre-crisis path).\n  - Nigeria: remittances \"dropped by 28 percent\" (regional remittances expected to increase, but Nigeria affected by economic conditions abroad and FX market uncertainty).\n  - SDR allocation to Sub-Saharan Africa: \"About $23 billion of this allocation will go to [sub-Saharan] Africa.\"\n  - Regional opportunity: global population growth next three decades \"about two billion people with about half of that increase coming from Sub-Saharan Africa.\"\n- Distribution of recovery: \"a good40 percent or so of countries in the region\" have recovered close to or back to pre-crisis trajectories; many others lag, especially commodity exporters with narrow economic bases."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy challenges, the \"trilemma\", and reform priorities",
      "content": "- The trilemma facing policymakers: need to balance\n  - \"pressing spending needs to address the many social and human capital and infrastructure needs\",\n  - \"limited borrowing capacity given the already high public debt levels\",\n  - \"the time-consuming and politically difficult nature of mobilizing tax revenues.\"\n- Policy priorities and recommended reforms:\n  - Mobilize more domestic revenues (tax mobilization) instead of relying on debt financing; develop clear medium-term revenue mobilization road maps (country-specific).\n  - Prioritize spending toward projects with highest rates of return and on social protection to avoid scarring (e.g., education recovery for children).\n  - Reprioritize and improve spending efficiency; reduce leakages and strengthen public financial management and transparency.\n  - Pursue economic diversification (e.g., away from diamonds in Botswana; away from narrow commodity reliance in commodity exporters).\n  - Upgrade institutions and industries to sustain medium-term growth (prepare for supply-chain shifts post-pandemic).\n  - Combine external financing (including concessional resources) with domestic reforms to enable a durable recovery."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Debt pressures, restructuring, and financing mechanisms",
      "content": "- Elevated debt pressures: increase in countries seeking restructuring (Zambia, Chad, Ethiopia cited).\n- Country cases:\n  - Zambia: discussions of a new program underway; mission expected to define program parameters and facilitate official and private creditor restructuring.\n  - Chad: official sector provided assurances for disbursements, but private creditors have not committed to restructuring in good faith, delaying critical financing amid serious food insecurity and drought-like rainfall conditions.\n  - Ethiopia: authorities requested support under the Common Framework; Director recused himself and staff will provide detailed updates; IMF omitted medium-term GDP projections due to \"extremely high degree of uncertainty\" and pending program discussions (similar precedent with Argentina and Lebanon).\n- Role of SDRs and IMF facilities in rechanneling resources:\n  - Rechanneling paths:\n    - Additional SDRs to the PRGT to provide zero interest rate loans with 10-year maturity.\n    - A proposed Resilience and Sustainability Trust to provide longer-maturity financing for major transformations (e.g., climate change).\n  - SDRs are one of multiple vehicles needed; IMF committed to rechanneling and supporting countries with elevated financing needs.\n- Requested financing scale cited by questioner: \"$250 billion needed in the next five years\" (presented as part of the questioner’s framing)."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Governance, transparency, and program implementation",
      "content": "- Rapid emergency financing during the pandemic required faster disbursements; IMF asked countries to \"spend the money but keep the receipts\":\n  - Requirements emphasized: audits of COVID-related spending, disclosure of beneficial ownership for contracting firms.\n  - IMF following up and holding countries to commitments; program discussions may be delayed if audits or reforms are not completed.\n- Cameroon: IMF engagement emphasizes increasing transparency and public accountability; follow-up on audits and beneficial ownership listings is ongoing.\n- Angola and Equatorial Guinea:\n  - Angola: pandemic and oil price slump delayed recovery; authorities credited for continuing reforms since 2018; outlook depends on pandemic waning and global oil price recovery.\n  - Equatorial Guinea: EFF (approved end-2019) implementation hindered by weak capacity and the pandemic; recent Bata explosion worsened conditions; emergency financing provided and discussions continue to complete structural benchmarks."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Security, medium-term risks, and outlook uncertainty",
      "content": "- Insecurity (Sahel, Mozambique, Nigeria, eastern DRC) exacerbates economic challenges and can negatively affect activity and policy environments; uptick in violence noted, particularly in the Sahel and Mozambique.\n- High uncertainty justifies cautious forecasting in specific cases and the need for flexible policy responses.\n- IMF stance: institution \"remains committed to supporting Sub-Saharan Africa\" including through SDR allocation and facilitating rechanneling mechanisms to bolster resilience.\n\nTranscript of October 2021 African Sub-Saharan Press Briefing — IMF Communications Department\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- Abebe Aemro Selassie\n- PRESS CENTER\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2021/10/21/tr102121-transcript-of-african-sub-saharan-department-press-briefing"
    }
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    "Published: October 21, 2021",
    "Two divergent realities: advanced economies with plentiful vaccine supply and faster recovery; vulnerable emerging and developing economies with slower vaccine rollouts and constrained policy space.",
    "Third wave driven by delta variant hit Sub-Saharan Africa since April; infections rose to \"triple, quadruple\" earlier rates and this wave \"has now eased over the past month or so\" but repeated waves are likely.",
    "Vaccination status:",
    "IMF vaccination plan goals:",
    "Causes of slow vaccine rollout cited: stockpiling by advanced countries, export restrictions by major vaccine manufacturing countries, demands for booster shots in advanced economies.",
    "Growth projections:",
    "Recovery drivers: favorable external conditions on trade and commodity prices, improved harvests and increased agricultural production.",
    "Relative performance: recovery is \"the slowest growth relative to most other regions of the world\"; advanced economies projected to return to pre-crisis paths by 2023.",
    "Durable income loss: pandemic \"looks to have durably lowered the path of real GDP in Sub-Saharan Africa, suggesting a loss of real per capita income of close to 5.5 percent relative to the pre-crisis path.\"",
    "Poverty and inequality:",
    "Country-specific highlights and figures:",
    "Distribution of recovery: \"a good40 percent or so of countries in the region\" have recovered close to or back to pre-crisis trajectories; many others lag, especially commodity exporters with narrow economic bases.",
    "The trilemma facing policymakers: need to balance",
    "Policy priorities and recommended reforms:",
    "Elevated debt pressures: increase in countries seeking restructuring (Zambia, Chad, Ethiopia cited).",
    "Country cases:",
    "Role of SDRs and IMF facilities in rechanneling resources:",
    "Requested financing scale cited by questioner: \"$250 billion needed in the next five years\" (presented as part of the questioner’s framing).",
    "Rapid emergency financing during the pandemic required faster disbursements; IMF asked countries to \"spend the money but keep the receipts\":",
    "Cameroon: IMF engagement emphasizes increasing transparency and public accountability; follow-up on audits and beneficial ownership listings is ongoing.",
    "Angola and Equatorial Guinea:",
    "Insecurity (Sahel, Mozambique, Nigeria, eastern DRC) exacerbates economic challenges and can negatively affect activity and policy environments; uptick in violence noted, particularly in the Sahel and Mozambique.",
    "High uncertainty justifies cautious forecasting in specific cases and the need for flexible policy responses.",
    "IMF stance: institution \"remains committed to supporting Sub-Saharan Africa\" including through SDR allocation and facilitating rechanneling mechanisms to bolster resilience.",
    "[Abebe Aemro Selassie](https://www.imf.org/en/About/senior-officials/Bios/abebe-selassie)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
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