{
  "title": "Guatemala: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2022 Article IV Mission",
  "publication": "IMF News, April 8, 2022",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2022/04/08/guatemala-staff-concluding-statement-of-the-2022-article-iv-mission",
  "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2022/04/08/guatemala-staff-concluding-statement-of-the-2022-article-iv-mission",
  "overlayPath": "/en/news/articles/2022/04/08/guatemala-staff-concluding-statement-of-the-2022-article-iv-mission/index.md",
  "summary": "Guatemala: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2022 Article IV Mission",
  "publishDate": "2022-04-08",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Strong economic momentum and overarching assessment",
      "content": "- The Guatemalan economy rebounded strongly in 2021 and should return to its pre-pandemic growth trend in 2022.\n- The banking sector remains solid overall with pandemic-related measures appropriately phased out last year.\n- The outlook remains broadly positive but is subject to elevated external risks.\n- Sustaining the recovery and addressing longstanding social and infrastructure needs is paramount to boost inclusive growth.\n- Continuing reforms to improve the business climate are essential to further strengthen the outlook and resilience to various shocks (including climate change-related)."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Near-term macroeconomic policy guidance",
      "content": "- Monetary policy:\n  - Should remain data-driven to maintain inflation expectations anchored.\n  - Monetary policy normalization must be carefully calibrated amid tighter global financial conditions.\n  - A clear and consistent communication strategy will help guide market expectations.\n  - Greater exchange rate flexibility can help absorb external shocks.\n- Fiscal policy:\n  - The fiscal stance embodied by the approved 2022 budget is appropriate.\n  - Announced initiatives to mitigate higher import prices (gas, oil-related products, small farmers’, and electricity subsidies) are temporary and should consistently aim to target the vulnerable.\n  - Authorities should stand ready to temporarily re-deploy some of the 2020 social measures if economic conditions worsen."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Medium-term fiscal and social priorities",
      "content": "- Create fiscal space to close social and infrastructure gaps within a sound medium-term fiscal framework by:\n  - Further increasing tax revenues and improving spending efficiency.\n  - Building on recent digitalization efforts that have improved transparency and efficiency.\n  - Rationalizing tax incentives and exemptions.\n- Social program targeting and data:\n  - Staff welcome the pilot program to collect data on poverty, nutrition, and housing conditions in six municipalities and encourage its expansion.\n  - The authorities’ household survey should better gauge social needs and calibrate Guatemala’s social safety net.\n  - Priority social spending could be scaled up using existing fiscal space and leveraging the experience gained with the Bono Familia program.\n- Institutional capacity:\n  - Further strengthening institutional capacity to support a result-based approach would help attain targets embodied in the 2020-24 General Policy of the Government.\n  - Staff recommends technical assistance to strengthen medium-term fiscal policy."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Public investment and infrastructure governance",
      "content": "- Enhance the infrastructure governance framework to increase high-quality investments and achieve long-term inclusive development:\n  - Require a clear regulatory and institutional framework, robust coordination across levels of government, and sustainable performance throughout asset lifecycles.\n  - Staff recommend participation in the IMF’s Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA) program to establish a standardized diagnostic and concrete recommendations.\n  - The Ministry of Finance agrees to participate in the PIMA program to improve public investment planning with a focus on resilience.\n  - Strengthen long-term strategic infrastructure vision with focus on projects with highest inclusive growth potential and supported by a medium-term fiscal framework."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Structural reforms to boost medium-term growth and inclusion",
      "content": "- Enhance the business climate and promote investment:\n  - Reforms improving the judiciary and legislative environment remain important.\n  - Broad-based transparency and digitalization efforts across public administration are welcomed.\n  - The passage of the law to facilitate insolvency procedures should promote firm creation.\n  - Formalizing part-time work—particularly important for female labor force participation—could help lift formalization and create economic opportunities.\n  - Staff encourage expediting implementation of the 2020-2024 General Policy of the Government and the Economic Recovery Plan.\n  - A results-based approach could help ensure reforms translate into sustainable outcomes."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Financial sector reforms and supervision",
      "content": "- The banking system remains sound, but supervisory and regulatory reforms should be expedited:\n  - Amendments to the Banking and Financial Groups Law and the draft law on AML/CFT are pending approval by Congress.\n  - Staff welcome preparation of the legal framework for Fintech and e-money and encourage speedy implementation to address legal, supervisory, and regulatory challenges.\n  - Adoption of the new Securities Market Law is important to strengthen foundations for financial markets and related supervision."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Risks to the outlook",
      "content": "- Significant, mostly external, downside risks include:\n  - New COVID-19 variants.\n  - De-anchoring of inflation expectations in advanced economies.\n  - Continued global supply chain disruptions.\n  - Potential changes to investor risk sentiment leading to abrupt tightening of global financial conditions.\n  - Elevated and volatile commodity prices, amplified by the war in Ukraine, introducing new uncertainty and potentially accelerating global inflationary pressures and slowing external demand.\n  - Price pressures on basic goods could affect the most vulnerable."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Selected economic indicators and key statistics (as presented)",
      "content": "- Output:\n  - Real GDP: 3.9 (2019); -1.5 (2020); 8.0 (2021); 4.0 (2022); 3.6 (2023); 3.5 (2024); 3.5 (2025)\n  - Domestic demand (contribution, percent)1: 5.5 (2019); -2.2 (2020); 13.0 (2021); 2.5 (2022); 3.2 (2023); 3.8 (2024)\n  - External demand (contribution, percent): -1.6 (2019); 0.7 (2020); -5.0 (2021); 1.5 (2022); 0.4 (2023); -0.4 (2024); -0.3 (2025)\n  - Output gap (percent of potential GDP): 0.2 (2019); -3.9 (2020); -0.1 (2021); 0.0 (2022)\n- Prices and exchange rates:\n  - Inflation (average): 3.7 (2019); 4.3 (2020); 4.4 (2021); 4.2 (2022)\n  - Inflation (end of period): 3.4 (2019); 4.8 (2020); 3.1 (2021); 4.5 (2022)\n  - Real effective exchange rate (\"+\" = real appreciation): 3.3 (2019)\n  - Terms of trade: 5.1 (2019); 7.4 (2020); -7.0 (2021); -3.3 (2022); -4.5 (2023); -1.2 (2024); -1.3 (2025); -1.4 (2026)\n- Money and credit:\n  - M2: 9.6 (2019); 18.9 (2020); 11.6 (2021); 7.1 (2022); 7.5 (2023); 7.3 (2024); 7.0 (2025)\n  - Credit to the private sector: 4.9 (2019); 6.4 (2020); 12.7 (2021); 6.9 (2022); 7.2 (2023)\n- External sector:\n  - Current account (percent of GDP): 2.3 (2019); 2.7 (2020); 0.1 (2021); 0.8 (2022); 0.9 (2023); 1.0 (2024)\n  - Trade balance (goods and services): -10.3 (2019); -8.0 (2020); -14.0 (2021); -15.8 (2022); -15.2 (2023); -14.3 (2024); -13.7 (2025); -13.2 (2026); -12.8 (2027)\n  - Export (goods and services): 17.7 (2019); 16.9 (2020); 17.6 (2021); 19.7 (2022); 19.5 (2023); 18.3 (2024); 17.8 (2025); 17.2 (2026); 16.7 (2027)\n  - Import (goods and services): 27.9 (2019); 24.9 (2020); 31.6 (2021); 35.5 (2022); 34.7 (2023); 33.2 (2024); 32.0 (2025); 31.0 (2026); 30.0 (2027)\n  - Remittances: 13.6 (2019); 14.6 (2020); 17.1 (2021); 17.0 (2022); 16.5 (2023); 16.0 (2024); 15.5 (2025); 15.0 (2026); 14.5 (2027)\n- Reserves and external financing:\n  - Net international reserves (US$ billion): 13.8 (2019); 18.5 (2020); 20.9 (2021)\n  - Stock in months of next-year NFGS imports: 8.6 (2019); 8.2 (2020); 7.8 (2021)\n- Central Government finances (percent of GDP unless otherwise specified):\n  - Total revenue: 11.2 (2019); 10.7 (2020); 12.4 (2021); 12.3 (2022); 12.0 (2023); 11.8 (2024); 11.7 (2025)\n  - of which: tax revenue: 10.6 (2019); 10.1 (2020); 11.4 (2021); 11.0 (2022)\n  - Expenditure: 13.5 (2019); 15.6 (2020); 14.0 (2021)\n  - of which: capital: 3.0 (2019); 2.4 (2020); 2.6 (2021)\n  - Primary balance: -0.6 (2019); -3.2 (2020); 0.6 (2021); -0.2 (2022)\n  - Overall balance: -4.9 (2019); -2.3 (2020); -2.0 (2021); -1.9 (2022); -1.8 (2023)\n  - External financing, net: 1.2 (2019); 1.7 (2020); 0.5 (2021); 0.3 (2022)\n  - Domestic financing, net: 1.1 (2019); 1.4 (2020)\n- Central Government Debt:\n  - General government gross debt: 26.5 (2019); 31.5 (2020); 30.9 (2021); 30.6 (2022); 30.7 (2023); 30.5 (2024); 30.4 (2025); 30.2 (2026); 30.1 (2027)\n  - Domestic2: 12.9 (2019); 13.3 (2020); 12.6 (2021); 12.2 (2022)\n  - Domestic: 14.7 (2019); 18.0 (2020); 17.9 (2021); 17.3 (2022); 17.5 (2023)\n- Memorandum items:\n  - Nominal GDP (QTZ billion): 592.8 (2019); 599.2 (2020); 663.0 (2021); 709.8 (2022); 763.3 (2023); 819.2 (2024); 876.7 (2025); 938.4 (2026); 1,004.4 (2027)\n  - Nominal GDP (US$ billion): 77.0 (2019); 77.6 (2020); 85.7 (2021)\n  - US$ exchange rate (average): 7.70 (2019); 7.72 (2020); 7.74 (2021)\n  - International price of oil (US$ a barrel): 61.4 (2019); 41.3 (2020); 69.1 (2021); 106.8 (2022); 92.6 (2023); 84.2 (2024); 78.5 (2025); 74.7 (2026); 72.5 (2027)\n\nMission Concluding Statement, April 8, 2022 — IMF Communications Department\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- Guatemala and the IMF\n- IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet\n- Mission Concluding Statements\n- PRESS CENTER\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2022/04/08/guatemala-staff-concluding-statement-of-the-2022-article-iv-mission"
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "[Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2022/04/08/guatemala-staff-concluding-statement-of-the-2022-article-iv-mission/index.md)",
    "[Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2022/04/08/guatemala-staff-concluding-statement-of-the-2022-article-iv-mission/index.json)",
    "[Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2022/04/08/guatemala-staff-concluding-statement-of-the-2022-article-iv-mission/bundle-manifest.json)",
    "Published: April 8, 2022",
    "The Guatemalan economy rebounded strongly in 2021 and should return to its pre-pandemic growth trend in 2022.",
    "The banking sector remains solid overall with pandemic-related measures appropriately phased out last year.",
    "The outlook remains broadly positive but is subject to elevated external risks.",
    "Sustaining the recovery and addressing longstanding social and infrastructure needs is paramount to boost inclusive growth.",
    "Continuing reforms to improve the business climate are essential to further strengthen the outlook and resilience to various shocks (including climate change-related).",
    "Monetary policy:",
    "Fiscal policy:",
    "Create fiscal space to close social and infrastructure gaps within a sound medium-term fiscal framework by:",
    "Social program targeting and data:",
    "Institutional capacity:",
    "Enhance the infrastructure governance framework to increase high-quality investments and achieve long-term inclusive development:",
    "Enhance the business climate and promote investment:",
    "The banking system remains sound, but supervisory and regulatory reforms should be expedited:",
    "Significant, mostly external, downside risks include:",
    "Output:",
    "Prices and exchange rates:",
    "Money and credit:",
    "External sector:",
    "Reserves and external financing:",
    "Central Government finances (percent of GDP unless otherwise specified):",
    "Central Government Debt:",
    "Memorandum items:",
    "[Guatemala and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/GTM/index.htm)",
    "[IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)",
    "[Mission Concluding Statements](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
  ],
  "alternates": {
    "markdown": "/en/news/articles/2022/04/08/guatemala-staff-concluding-statement-of-the-2022-article-iv-mission/index.md",
    "json": "/en/news/articles/2022/04/08/guatemala-staff-concluding-statement-of-the-2022-article-iv-mission/index.json",
    "bundleManifest": "/en/news/articles/2022/04/08/guatemala-staff-concluding-statement-of-the-2022-article-iv-mission/bundle-manifest.json"
  },
  "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-26T01:07:28.733Z"
}