## IMF Executive Board Concludes 2022 Article IV Consultation with Côte d’Ivoire

_IMF News, June 17, 2022_

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## Bibliographic details
- Published: June 17, 2022

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### Economic performance and recent developments
- The Ivorian economy proved resilient to the COVID-19 pandemic due to the authorities’ effective policy response.
- Growth recovered strongly in 2021, with growth estimated at 7 percent (from 2 percent in 2020).
- COVID-related fatalities remain at low levels by international standards.
- Vaccination efforts: about 70 percent of the target population has already received a first dose.
- Annual inflation rose to 4.2 percent in 2021 due to external and supply shocks.

### 2022 outlook and risks
- The impact of the war in Ukraine and regional security challenges are expected to weigh on the macroeconomic outlook in 2022.
- IMF staff forecasts growth to slow down to 6 percent in 2022 due to subdued global demand, worsened terms of trade, and increased uncertainty.
- Inflation is expected to increase further to about 5½ percent in 2022.
- Near-term negative risks:
  - Global repercussions of the war in Ukraine.
  - Tighter monetary policy in advanced countries and associated increase in borrowing cost.
  - New COVID-19 variants’ outbreaks.
  - Continued instability in some neighboring countries.
- Authorities’ temporary measures to contain the impact of the war in Ukraine include introducing price ceilings on several food items.
- Medium-term growth projections remain robust, with upside risks related to the discovery of substantial oil and gas reserves.
- It is expected that the next Article IV consultation for Cote d'Ivoire be held on the standard 12-month cycle.

### Fiscal stance, debt, and public finance recommendations
- 2021 fiscal outcomes:
  - Overall fiscal deficit reached 5.1 percent of GDP, lower than anticipated.
  - Better outturn mainly due to improvements in customs collection and tax administration which offset higher security spending.
- The current circumstances could warrant a slightly higher-than-budgeted deficit in 2022.
- Convergence to the WAEMU target deficit of 3 percent of GDP in 2024 remains feasible.
- Debt sustainability analysis: continues to point to a moderate risk of debt distress, but with very limited space to absorb future shocks amid worsening market conditions.
- Policy priorities:
  - Accelerate efforts to mobilize domestic revenue.
  - Pursue fiscal reforms to make room to finance priority spending and support inclusive growth.
  - Continue improving tax administration and customs collection, including digitalization.
  - Rationalize tax exemptions.
  - Redesign and simplify the personal income tax regime to improve progressivity.
  - Find the right balance between accommodating urgent spending pressures (including higher security spending) and preserving fiscal space to cope with future shocks.
- Recent measures to contain inflation and economic impact should remain temporary and become increasingly targeted to the most vulnerable if the shock proves persistent.

### Structural reforms, social programs, and human capital
- A resolute implementation of reforms under the 2021-25 National Development Plan (NDP) would boost medium-term growth.
- The new social program can continue enhancing human capital.
- Education and health priorities:
  - Further efforts aimed at improving the quality of basic education and professional training systems would help ease skills mismatch in the labor market.
  - Ensuring equitable access to health care remains a priority.
- Structural reforms to boost inclusive and sustainable growth:
  - Tackle infrastructure bottlenecks.
  - Address regulatory framework deficiencies.
  - Enhance protection of land tenure and property rights.
  - Streamline bureaucracy.
  - Strong involvement of the private sector is key to focus efforts and contain fiscal costs.
  - Further improvements in governance and the fight against corruption to attract private investment.
  - Adopt sound climate adaptation and mitigation policies, including sustainable farming and forest preservation.

### Financial sector and access to finance
- Deepening financial inclusion and access to finance remain crucial for unlocking the private sector’s potential.
- Reform priorities:
  - Tackle deficiencies in insolvency procedures.
  - Improve credit infrastructure.
  - Prompt restructuring of undercapitalized public banks to improve the banking sector’s capacity to support growth.

### Selected Economic Indicators (2019–23) — key statistics and projections
- Population (2020): 27 million
- Gini Index (2015): 41.5
- Per capita GDP (2020): 2,279 USD
- Life Expectancy (years): 58
- Share of population below the poverty line (2015): 44.4%
- Literacy rate: 47.2%

- Output — Real GDP Growth (%)
  - 2019: 6.2
  - 2020: 2.0
  - 2021 Est.: 7.0
  - 2022 Proj.: 6.0
  - 2023 Proj.: 6.7

- Prices — Inflation (annual average, %)
  - 2019: 0.8
  - 2020: 2.4
  - 2021 Est.: 4.2
  - 2022 Proj.: 5.5
  - 2023 Proj.: 2.3

- Central government finances (percent of GDP)
  - Revenues:
    - 2019: 14.2
    - 2020: 14.4
    - 2021 Est.: 15.3
    - 2022 Proj.: 14.7
    - 2023 Proj.: 14.7
  - Expenditure:
    - 2019: 17.3
    - 2020: 20.5
    - 2021 Est.: 20.9
    - 2022 Proj.: 20.0
    - 2023 Proj.: 19.2
  - Fiscal balance:
    - 2019: -2.3
    - 2020: -5.6
    - 2021 Est.: -5.1
    - 2022 Proj.: -5.3
    - 2023 Proj.: -4.0
  - Public debt:
    - 2019: 38.4
    - 2020: 47.6
    - 2021 Est.: 52.1
    - 2022 Proj.: 52.9
    - 2023 Proj.: 52.3

- Money and Credit
  - Broad money (% change):
    - 2019: 11.0
    - 2020: 21.4
    - 2021 Est.: 17.7
    - 2022 Proj.: 10.4
    - 2023: …
  - Credit to private sector (% change):
    - 2019: 6.1
    - 2020: 9.2
    - 2021 Est.: 12.6
    - 2022 Proj.: 4.5

- Balance of payments
  - Current account (% GDP):
    - 2019: -3.2
    - 2020: -3.8
    - 2021 Est.: -4.8
    - 2022 Proj.: -4.6
  - Net FDI Inflows (% GDP):
    - 2019: 1.3
    - 2020: 1.2
    - 2021 Est.: 1.1
  - WAEMU reserves (in months of imports):
    - 2019: 5.6

- External public debt (% GDP)
  - 2019: 25.5
  - 2020: 30.5
  - 2021 Est.: 31.6
  - 2022 Proj.: 31.4
  - 2023 Proj.: 30.3

- Exchange rate — REER (% change, depreciation –)
  - 2019: -3.9
  - 2020: 5.1
  - 2021 Est.: 1.9

*IMF Executive Board concludes 2022 Article IV consultation with Côte d’Ivoire — Press Release No. 22/210*

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## References

- [Côte d'Ivoire and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/CIV/index.htm)
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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2022/06/17/imf-executive-board-concludes-2022-article-iv-consultation-with-cote-divoire_