## IMF Executive Board Concludes the Second Reviews of the Extended Credit Facility and Extended Fund Facility Arrangements for Cameroon

_IMF News, July 25, 2022_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [IMF Executive Board Concludes the Second Reviews of the Extended Credit Facility and Extended Fund Facility Arrangements for Cameroon](https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2022/07/25/pr22273-cameroon-imf-executive-board-concludes-second-reviews-ecf-eff-arrangements)

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## Bibliographic details
- Published: July 25, 2022

---

### Access and Program Status
- Completion of the Second Reviews provides Cameroon with access to the equivalent of US$ 72.9 million from the IMF.
- The completion of the second reviews enables the disbursement of SDR 18.4 million (about US$ 24.3 million) under the ECF Arrangement, and purchases of SDR 36.8 million (about US$ 48.6 million) under the EFF Arrangement.
- Total access under the arrangements is SDR 262.2 million (about US$ 346.1 million).
- The Executive Board approved the authorities’ request for a waiver of applicability for the end-June 2022 performance criteria.
- Cameroon’s three-year ECF-EFF arrangements were approved on July 29, 2021 and are built around five pillars:
  - mitigating the health, economic, and social consequences of the pandemic while ensuring fiscal and external sustainability;
  - reinforcing good governance and strengthening the transparency and the anti-corruption framework;
  - accelerating structural fiscal reforms to modernize the tax and customs administrations, mobilize revenue, improve public financial management, increase public investment efficiency, and reduce fiscal risks from state-owned enterprises;
  - strengthening debt management and ensuring debt levels remain sustainable;
  - implementing structural reforms to accelerate economic diversification, boost financial sector resilience and inclusion, and promote gender equality and a greener economy.

### Economic Performance and Outlook
- Cameroon experienced a record low real GDP growth rate of -2.2 percent year on year (yoy) in Q2-2020.
- Real GDP growth rate gradually recovered to reach 3.6 percent in 2021.
- The nascent recovery from mid-2021 is subject to greater uncertainties due to spillovers from the war in Ukraine, high inflationary pressures (especially food and fuel prices), and tightening global financial conditions.
- Low vaccination rates leave the country vulnerable to further COVID-19 waves.
- Real GDP growth is projected at 3.8 percent in 2022, down from 4.5 percent at the time of the program’s First Reviews.
- Inflation is projected to rise to 4.6 percent in 2022, but to remain below 3 percent in the medium term.

### Risks and Shocks
- Downside risks highlighted:
  - rising and volatile food, fertilizers, and energy prices, and supply disruptions;
  - new outbreaks of lethal and highly contagious COVID-19 variants;
  - a sharp increase in global risk premia following ongoing monetary policy tightening in advanced economies;
  - inadequate progress on fuel price subsidies.
- Upside factors noted:
  - potential benefits from new oil and gas opportunities;
  - completion of major hydroelectric plants.
- Risk mitigants:
  - authorities’ strong implementation record of macro-economic programs;
  - close engagement with donors;
  - a comprehensive capacity development program;
  - contingency planning, including its COVID-19 response plan.

### Fiscal and External Position Developments
- As a crude oil exporter, Cameroon has experienced some positive effects on its external and fiscal positions.
- Intensified higher global prices and supply disruptions have significantly increased the cost of fuel subsidies and are placing additional pressure on domestic prices, especially for food and fertilizers.
- Authorities’ fiscal strategy highlighted:
  - maintain fiscal consolidation path;
  - reduce fuel subsidies gradually, starting in 2023, while protecting the vulnerable;
  - continue non-oil revenue mobilization and expenditure rationalization to rebuild fiscal space for strengthening social safety nets and boosting the recovery, while preserving debt sustainability.
- IMF advice: manage debt cautiously and limit reliance on non-concessional borrowing.

### Structural Reforms and Financial Sector Policy Recommendations
- Structural reforms are advancing, albeit with delays in some key areas.
- Recommended priorities:
  - effective and resolute implementation of structural reforms to further strengthen transparency, good governance, and the anti-corruption framework to promote growth and catalyze additional donor financing;
  - closely monitor rising non-performing loans and proceed with bank restructuring within the timetable set by COBAC to ensure financial sector resilience;
  - further efforts to tackle gender inequality and climate change related challenges.

### Selected Economic and Financial Indicators (highlights from Table 1)
- GDP at constant prices:
  - 2021: 3.5
  - 2022 (Est.): 3.6
  - 2023 (1st Rev. Proj.): 4.5
  - 2024 (Proj.): 3.8
  - 2025 (Proj.): 4.6
  - 2026 (Proj.): 4.7
  - 2027 (Proj.): 5.0
  - 2027 (alternate): 4.9
- Oil GDP at constant prices:
  - 2021: 0.1
  - 2022: -3.2
  - 2023: 4.2
  - 2024: -3.0
  - 2025: 0.2
  - 2026: 0.3
- GDP deflator:
  - 2021: 2.6
  - 2022: 3.3
  - 2023: 2.9
  - 2024: 2.4
  - 2025: 2.1
  - 2026: 2.0
- Nominal GDP (at market prices, CFAF billions):
  - 2021: 24,951
  - 2022: 25,158
  - 2023: 26,828
  - 2024: 27,389
  - 2025: 29,325
  - 2026: 31,506
  - 2027: 33,766
  - additional projections: 36,152; 38,682
- Oil revenue (CFAF billions):
  - 2021: 929
  - 2022: 801
  - 2023: 1,009
  - 2024: 1,187
  - 2025: 1,090
  - 2026: 992
  - 2027: 927
  - further: 883; 859
- Non-Oil revenue (CFAF billions):
  - 2021: 24,021
  - 2022: 24,357
  - 2023: 25,819
  - 2024: 26,201
  - 2025: 28,235
  - 2026: 30,513
  - 2027: 32,839
  - further: 35,269; 37,823
- Consumer prices (average):
  - 2021: 2.3
  - 2022: 2.8
- Consumer prices (eop):
  - 2021: 4.1
- Broad money (M2) (percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated):
  - 2021: 13.8
  - 2022: 17.2
  - 2023: 10.7
  - 2024: 15.6
  - 2025: 10.1
  - 2026: 8.1
  - 2027: 6.7
  - additional: 6.1; 7.0
- Net foreign assets (percent of broad money at the beginning of the period):
  - 2021: 1.9
  - 2022: 4.3
  - 2023: 6.5
  - 2024: 4.0
  - 2025: 1.7
  - 2026: 1.5
- Domestic credit to the private sector (percent of GDP):
  - 2021: 5.4
  - 2022: 9.7
  - 2023: 5.6
  - 2024: 9.1
  - 2025: 12.4
  - 2026: 10.9
  - 2027: 7.4
  - further: 7.5; 3.1
- Gross national savings:
  - 2021: 26.9
  - 2022: 14.0
  - 2023: 29.8
  - 2024: 16.3
  - 2025: 17.3
  - 2026: 18.8
  - 2027: 20.4
  - additional: 21.8; 23.2
- Gross domestic investment:
  - 2021: 30.3
  - 2022: 17.9
  - 2023: 31.8
  - 2024: 18.4
  - 2025: 20.0
  - 2026: 22.0
  - 2027: 23.6
  - additional: 25.0; 26.0
- Public investment (percent of GDP):
  - 2021: 5.5
  - 2022: 5.8
  - 2023: 6.0
  - 2024: 6.8
- Private investment (percent of GDP):
  - 2021: 24.9
  - 2022: 13.4
  - 2023: 26.2
  - 2024: 13.2
  - 2025: 14.6
  - 2026: 16.2
  - 2027: 17.6
  - additional: 18.3; 19.2
- Central government operations:
  - Total revenue (including grants) as percent of GDP:
    - 2021: 13.9
    - 2022: 14.1
    - 2023: 14.9
    - 2024: 15.4
    - 2025: 15.9
    - 2026: 15.7
    - 2027: 15.5
  - Non-oil revenue as percent of GDP:
    - 2021: 11.7
    - 2022: 12.0
    - 2023: 12.8
    - 2024: 13.1
    - 2025: 13.6
    - 2026: 13.7
  - Non-oil revenue (percent of non-oil GDP):
    - 2021: 12.1
    - 2022: 12.5
    - 2023: 13.3
  - Total expenditure as percent of GDP:
    - 2021: 17.0
    - 2022: 16.5
    - 2023: 16.7
    - 2024: 17.4
    - 2025: 16.1
    - 2026: 16.0
  - Overall fiscal balance (payment order basis) excluding grants:
    - 2021: -3.4
    - 2022: -2.6
    - 2023: -2.4
    - 2024: -2.5
    - 2025: -0.5
    - 2026: -0.6
    - 2027: -1.4
  - Including grants:
    - 2021: -3.1
    - 2022: -1.8
    - 2023: -1.9
    - 2024: -0.2
    - 2025: -0.3
    - 2026: -0.4
    - 2027: -1.3
  - Overall fiscal balance (cash basis):
    - 2021: -3.8
    - 2022: -2.7
    - 2023: -1.0
    - 2024: -0.9
    - 2025: -0.8
    - 2026: -3.5
    - 2027: -2.8
    - additional figures: -2.2; -0.7
  - Non-oil primary balance (payment basis, percent of non-oil GDP):
    - 2021: -4.0
    - 2022: -4.2
    - 2023: -2.3
    - 2024: -1.7
- External sector:
  - Trade balance:
    - 2021: -1.1
    - 2022: -1.5
    - 2023: -2.0
    - 2024: -2.1
  - Non-oil exports (percent of GDP):
    - 2021: 8.0
    - 2022: 8.6
    - 2023: 9.4
    - 2024: 8.7
    - 2025: 7.9
    - 2026: 7.7
  - Imports (percent of GDP):
    - 2021: 14.5
    - 2022: 13.5
  - Current account balance excluding official grants:
    - 2021: -3.7
    - 2022: -4.4
    - 2023: -3.6
  - Current account balance including official grants:
    - 2021: -3.3
    - 2022: -2.9
  - Terms of trade:
    - 2021: 7.1
    - 2022: -7.1
    - 2023: -6.9
    - 2024: -4.6
- Public debt:
  - Stock of public debt:
    - 2021: 47.2
    - 2022: 45.5
    - 2023: 45.0
    - 2024: 44.0
    - 2025: 40.8
    - 2026: 37.9
    - 2027: 35.3
    - additional projections: 33.9; 32.6
  - Of which: external debt:
    - 2021: 31.6
    - 2022: 32.8
    - 2023: 31.2
    - 2024: 29.2
    - 2025: 28.2
    - 2026: 27.6

*Sources: Cameroonian authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections using updated nominal GDP.*

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## References

- [Kenji Okamura](https://www.imf.org/en/About/senior-officials/Bios/kenji-okamura)
- [Cameroon and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/CMR/index.htm)
- [Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/sheets/2023/special-drawing-rights-sdr)
- [Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)
- [PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)
- [Extended Credit Facility](https://www.imf.org/en/About/Factsheets/Sheets/2016/08/02/21/04/Extended-Credit-Facility)
- [Extended Fund Facility](https://www.imf.org/en/About/Factsheets/Sheets/2016/08/01/20/56/Extended-Fund-Facility)
- [approved on July 29, 2021](https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2021/07/29/pr21237-cameroon-imf-executive-board-approves-us-million-arrangements-under-ecf-eff)
- [https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2022/07/25/pr22273-cameroon-imf-executive-board-concludes-second-reviews-ecf-eff-arrangements_