{
  "title": "WEO Update July 2022 Press Briefing Transcript",
  "publication": "IMF News, July 26, 2022",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2022/07/27/tr072622-weo-uptate-july-22-press-briefing-transcript",
  "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2022/07/27/tr072622-weo-uptate-july-22-press-briefing-transcript",
  "overlayPath": "/en/news/articles/2022/07/27/tr072622-weo-uptate-july-22-press-briefing-transcript/index.md",
  "summary": "WEO Update July 2022 Press Briefing Transcript",
  "publishDate": "2022-07-26",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Global outlook and headline forecasts",
      "content": "- Global output contracted in the second quarter of this year.\n- Baseline forecast: global growth slows from last year's 6.1 percent to 3.2 percent this year, and 2.9 percent next year.\n- Downgrades of 0.4 and 0.7 percentage points from April.\n- Global trade expected growth: 4.1 percent in 2022, and 3.2 percent in 2023."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Major economy projections and country highlights",
      "content": "- United States:\n  - Growth forecast: 2.3 percent this year, and 1.0 percent next year.\n  - Labor market: unemployment rate cited at 3.6 percent.\n  - Q4 2023 quarterly growth example: 0.6 percent (used to illustrate narrow path to avoid recession).\n- China:\n  - Growth forecast: 3.3 percent this year (described as the slowest in more than four decades, excluding the pandemic).\n  - Slowdown attributed to COVID-19 outbreaks, lockdowns, and a deepening real estate crisis.\n- Euro area:\n  - Growth forecast: 2.6 percent this year, and 1.2 percent in 2023.\n  - Downgrades reflect spillovers from the war in Ukraine and tighter monetary policy.\n- Russia:\n  - 2022 growth forecast revised to -6 percent (up from a prior -8.5 percent projection).\n  - Revision attributed to resilient domestic demand, effective financial stabilization measures, fiscal support, and strong export revenues in the first half of the year.\n  - 2023 outlook revised down by -1.2 percentage point.\n- ASEAN-5:\n  - Aggregate expansion: 5.3 percent this year, and 5.1 percent in 2023.\n  - Noted downgrade for 2023 described by IMF as \"marked down 2023 by 8 percentage points.\"\n  - Inflation in 2022 for ASEAN-5: 3 to 7 percent depending on the country.\n- Egypt:\n  - Growth forecast: 5.9 percent in 2022, and 4.8 percent in 2023.\n  - Inflation forecast: 8.7 in 2022, and 14 percent in 2023.\n  - Authorities have requested IMF assistance; IMF team held productive discussions toward reaching a staff level agreement.\n- Canada:\n  - 2022 growth: about 3.4 percent; 2023: about 1.8 percent.\n  - IMF cut 2023 forecast for Canada by one percentage point in this Update.\n- Japan:\n  - Noted sizable downgrades: cuts by 0.7 and 0.6 percentage points for 2022 and 2023 respectively (relative to prior forecasts).\n  - Japan’s 2021 output growth was 1.7 percent; economy still below pre-pandemic output levels.\n- Argentina:\n  - Inflation: year-on-year in June cited at 64 percent.\n  - IMF emphasizes priority of bringing back inflation and price dynamics to stable levels.\n- Sub‑Saharan Africa (aggregate):\n  - Growth: 3.8 percent in 2022 and 4 percent in 2023 on average.\n  - Divergence: oil exporters boosted by higher oil prices; oil importers face headwinds from higher fertilizer and wheat costs."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Inflation and monetary policy",
      "content": "- Global inflation revised up despite slowing activity:\n  - Inflation this year anticipated to reach 6.6 percent in advanced economies, and 9.5 percent in emerging market and developing economies.\n  - Inflation is projected to remain elevated longer and has broadened in many economies.\n- Central banks:\n  - Major central banks in advanced economies are withdrawing monetary support faster than expected in April.\n  - Many emerging market and developing economies began raising interest rates last year.\n  - Result: a historically unprecedented synchronized monetary tightening across countries.\n- IMF guidance:\n  - \"Bringing it back to Central Bank targets should be the top priority for policy makers.\"\n  - Central Banks that have started tightening should stay the course until inflation is tamed.\n  - Tighter monetary policy will have real economic costs, but delaying it will only exacerbate hardship."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Downside risks and alternative scenario",
      "content": "- Key downside risks listed:\n  - A sudden stop of European gas flows from Russia.\n  - Inflation remaining stubborn if labor markets remain overly tight, inflation expectations de-anchor, or inflation proves more costly than expected.\n  - Tighter global financial conditions inducing a surge in debt distress in emerging market and developing economies.\n- Plausible alternative scenario (some risks materialize, including full shutdown of Russian gas flows to Europe):\n  - Global growth decelerates further to about 2.6 percent this year, and 2.0 percent next year.\n  - In this scenario both the United States and the Euro area experience near-zero growth next year, with negative knock-on effects for the rest of the world.\n  - Historical note: global growth has only been below 2.0 percent five times since 1970 (1973, 1981-82, 2009, and 2020)."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Financial stability, debt, and spillovers to EMDEs",
      "content": "- Tighter financial conditions (higher borrowing costs, diminished credit flows, stronger dollar, weaker growth) will push more countries into debt distress.\n- Share of emerging markets and developing economies in or at high risk of debt distress has more than tripled from a decade ago.\n- Debt resolution:\n  - Mechanisms remain slow and unpredictable, hampered by difficulties obtaining coordinated agreements from diverse creditors.\n  - Recent progress in implementing the Group of 20's Common Framework is anchoring, but further improvements are urgently needed.\n  - IMF encourages proactive debt restructuring to restore sustainability and unlock IMF support."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy recommendations and priorities",
      "content": "- Monetary policy:\n  - Priority: bring inflation back to central bank targets; central banks that have started tightening should continue until inflation is under control.\n- Fiscal policy:\n  - Target fiscal support to cushion the vulnerable; set targeted support with higher taxes or lower government spending to ensure fiscal policy does not undermine disinflationary objectives.\n  - Recognize constrained fiscal space in many countries.\n- Financial sector:\n  - Use macro‑prudential tools to safeguard financial stability.\n  - Where flexible exchange rates are insufficient, be ready to implement foreign exchange interventions or capital flow management measures in a crisis.\n- Trade and food/energy policy:\n  - Domestic measures to address high energy and food prices should focus on those most affected, without distorting prices.\n  - Governments should refrain from hoarding food and energy and unwind trade barriers (e.g., food export bans) that drive world prices higher.\n- Pandemic response:\n  - Step up vaccination campaigns, resolve vaccine distribution bottlenecks, and ensure equitable access to treatment.\n- Climate and energy transition:\n  - Prompt multilateral action needed to limit emissions and raise investments to accelerate the Green transition.\n  - Temporary measures to use fossil fuels in energy shortfalls should be limited and not increase emissions overall.\n  - Accelerate credible and comprehensive climate policies to increase Green energy supply; Green energy independence can be compatible with national security objectives."
    },
    {
      "heading": "SDRs and IMF resources",
      "content": "- IMF issued a record $650 billion in special drawing rights (SDRs) about a year prior (August of last year).\n- Calls from some U.S. policymakers for a fresh issuance of SDRs have been noted; IMF is exploring options and SDRs are part of a menu of instruments, but they are not a panacea.\n- Editor's note included in transcript: \"There has been no discussion at the IMF of a further SDR allocation,\" an IMF spokesperson said. \"Despite recent developments and high global uncertainty, it would be premature to conclude that the long-term global need for reserves has changed significantly.\"\n\nTranscript: WEO Update July 2022 Press Briefing Transcript, July 26, 2022; IMF Communications Department.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- https://www.imf.org/en/About/senior-officials/Bios/pierre-olivier-gourinchas\n- PRESS CENTER\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2022/07/27/tr072622-weo-uptate-july-22-press-briefing-transcript"
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "[Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2022/07/27/tr072622-weo-uptate-july-22-press-briefing-transcript/index.md)",
    "[Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2022/07/27/tr072622-weo-uptate-july-22-press-briefing-transcript/index.json)",
    "[Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2022/07/27/tr072622-weo-uptate-july-22-press-briefing-transcript/bundle-manifest.json)",
    "Published: July 26, 2022",
    "Global output contracted in the second quarter of this year.",
    "Baseline forecast: global growth slows from last year's 6.1 percent to 3.2 percent this year, and 2.9 percent next year.",
    "Downgrades of 0.4 and 0.7 percentage points from April.",
    "Global trade expected growth: 4.1 percent in 2022, and 3.2 percent in 2023.",
    "United States:",
    "China:",
    "Euro area:",
    "Russia:",
    "ASEAN-5:",
    "Egypt:",
    "Canada:",
    "Japan:",
    "Argentina:",
    "Sub‑Saharan Africa (aggregate):",
    "Global inflation revised up despite slowing activity:",
    "Central banks:",
    "IMF guidance:",
    "Key downside risks listed:",
    "Plausible alternative scenario (some risks materialize, including full shutdown of Russian gas flows to Europe):",
    "Tighter financial conditions (higher borrowing costs, diminished credit flows, stronger dollar, weaker growth) will push more countries into debt distress.",
    "Share of emerging markets and developing economies in or at high risk of debt distress has more than tripled from a decade ago.",
    "Debt resolution:",
    "Monetary policy:",
    "Fiscal policy:",
    "Financial sector:",
    "Trade and food/energy policy:",
    "Pandemic response:",
    "Climate and energy transition:",
    "IMF issued a record $650 billion in special drawing rights (SDRs) about a year prior (August of last year).",
    "Calls from some U.S. policymakers for a fresh issuance of SDRs have been noted; IMF is exploring options and SDRs are part of a menu of instruments, but they are not a panacea.",
    "Editor's note included in transcript: \"There has been no discussion at the IMF of a further SDR allocation,\" an IMF spokesperson said. \"Despite recent developments and high global uncertainty, it would be premature to conclude that the long-term global need for reserves has changed significantly.\"",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/About/senior-officials/Bios/pierre-olivier-gourinchas](https://www.imf.org/en/About/senior-officials/Bios/pierre-olivier-gourinchas)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
  ],
  "alternates": {
    "markdown": "/en/news/articles/2022/07/27/tr072622-weo-uptate-july-22-press-briefing-transcript/index.md",
    "json": "/en/news/articles/2022/07/27/tr072622-weo-uptate-july-22-press-briefing-transcript/index.json",
    "bundleManifest": "/en/news/articles/2022/07/27/tr072622-weo-uptate-july-22-press-briefing-transcript/bundle-manifest.json"
  },
  "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-26T01:26:49.042Z"
}