{
  "title": "IMF Executive Board Concludes 2022 Article IV Consultation with Equatorial Guinea",
  "publication": "IMF News, July 29, 2022",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2022/07/29/pr22280-imf-executive-board-concludes-2022-article-iv-consultation-with-equatorial-guinea",
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  "summary": "IMF Executive Board Concludes 2022 Article IV Consultation with Equatorial Guinea",
  "publishDate": "2022-07-29",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Overview",
      "content": "- On July 25, 2022, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund concluded the Article IV consultation with Equatorial Guinea.\n- Equatorial Guinea’s oil-dependent economy is slowly emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic and the Bata explosions.\n- Relaxation of pandemic containment measures and higher international oil prices are supporting economic activity, government revenues, and export earnings.\n- Substantial challenges remain, including surging food prices, banking sector vulnerabilities, and a stalled structural reform agenda."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Economic outlook and projections",
      "content": "- Real GDP:\n  - Contraction of 3.2 percent in 2021.\n  - Projected growth of 5.8 percent in 2022 supported by hydrocarbon production and Bata reconstruction.\n  - Starting in 2023, projected contraction through the medium term reflecting reduced hydrocarbon output and stalled reforms.\n- Inflation:\n  - Projected to rise to 6 percent by end-2022 due to pass-through from higher international oil and food prices, and to moderate over the medium term.\n- Sectoral projections (selected):\n  - Hydrocarbon sectors projected growth of 9.0 percent in 2022, then contractions of -8.3 percent in 2023 and -25.3 percent in 2024.\n  - Non-hydrocarbon sectors projected growth of 2.4 percent in 2022 and 2.7 percent in 2023.\n- External and fiscal indicators (selected projections and estimates):\n  - Exports, f.o.b.: 64.5 percent change in 2022, then -21.2 percent in 2023.\n  - Gross national savings: 7.7 percent in 2022 and 18.6 percent in 2023.\n  - Oil price (U.S. dollars a barrel): 107.7 in 2022; projected 92.9 in 2023, 84.1 in 2024, 78.2 in 2025, 74.4 in 2026, 71.8 in 2027.\n  - Oil volume (crude + condensado, millions of barrels): 43 in 2021; projected 38 in 2022, 30 in 2023, 29 in 2024, 25 in 2025, 22 in 2026."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Risks and vulnerabilities",
      "content": "- Balance of risks tilted to the downside.\n- Upside scenarios:\n  - Continued increase in hydrocarbon prices could further boost export earnings, improve fiscal balances, and increase external reserves.\n  - Stronger reform efforts could reverse the medium-term decline in real GDP.\n- Downside scenarios:\n  - Sustained surge in international food prices increasing food insecurity.\n  - Resurgence of the pandemic.\n  - Lower oil prices.\n  - Spike in marine piracy incidents.\n  - Further delays in addressing governance and corruption vulnerabilities.\n  - Worsening of banking sector stability indicators."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Executive Board assessment and policy recommendations",
      "content": "- Directors agreed with the staff appraisal: economy emerging but severe challenges remain; risks tilted to the downside.\n- Near-term priorities:\n  - Sustain external and fiscal sustainability while providing targeted support to the most vulnerable.\n  - Use part of windfall hydrocarbon revenues to rebuild macroeconomic buffers, including accumulation of foreign reserves, and to address social needs, especially food insecurity.\n  - Improve efficiency of public spending and non-hydrocarbon revenue.\n- Structural and governance priorities:\n  - Significantly strengthen commitment to reinvigorate the stalled structural reform agenda.\n  - Address serious governance vulnerabilities to support sustainable, inclusive growth.\n  - Substantially increase efforts to improve governance, enhance transparency, and fight corruption.\n  - Implement asset declaration regime for senior public officials, including publication of declarations.\n  - Complete and publish audits, including for state-owned hydrocarbon firms.\n  - Regularly publish beneficial ownership information on emergency-related public spending and periodic implementation progress reports of the 2019 Good Governance and Anti-Corruption Action Plan.\n  - Strengthen the effectiveness of the AML/CFT framework and improve timely publication of economic data.\n- Banking sector recommendations:\n  - Tackle high non-performing loans, undercapitalization, and low liquidity at some banks.\n  - Accelerate plans to settle domestic arrears to help address banking sector stability concerns.\n  - Strengthen management of state-owned banks.\n  - Develop mobile payments to improve financial access and inclusion.\n- Human capital and diversification:\n  - Boost investment in basic healthcare, education, and sanitation to strengthen human capital and social outcomes.\n  - Leverage existing public infrastructure to stimulate new economic activities.\n  - Commit to build a climate resilient economy.\n- Fund support:\n  - The Fund stands ready to continue to support the authorities’ efforts, including through capacity development."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Selected economic and financial indicators (2019–27, selected lines preserved exactly as presented)",
      "content": "- Real GDP (annual percent change): -5.5 (2019), -4.2 (2020), -3.2 (2021), 5.8 (2022), -3.1 (2023), -12.3 (2024), -2.6 (2025), -4.7 (2026), -1.1 (2027).\n- Hydrocarbon sectors (annual percent change): -8.8 (2019), -3.4 (2020), -7.3 (2021), 9.0 (2022), -8.3 (2023), -25.3 (2024), -10.0 (2025), -16.2 (2026), -9.0 (2027).\n- Non-hydrocarbon sectors (annual percent change): -1.4 (2019), -5.2 (2020), 1.6 (2021), 2.4 (2022), 2.7 (2023), 0.7 (2024), 3.0 (2025), 3.1 (2026).\n- GDP deflator (annual percent change): 20.9 (2019), 36.4 (2020), -6.0 (2021), -0.7 (2022), 2.1 (2023), 3.8 (2024), 3.5 (2025), 4.5 (2026), 5.4 (2027).\n- Consumer prices (annual average): 1.2 (2019), 4.8 (2020), -0.1 (2021), 5.1 (2022), 5.7 (2023), 5.2 (2024), 4.7 (2025), 4.2 (2026).\n- Consumer prices (end of period): 4.1 (2019), -0.5 (2020), 2.9 (2021), 4.0 (2022).\n- Broad money (annual percent change): -6.3 (2019), -7.0 (2020), 0.4 (2021), 1.8 (2022), -8.9 (2023), -12.9 (2024), 2.3 (2025).\n- Exports, f.o.b. (annual percent change): -16.5 (2019), -38.5 (2020), 57.6 (2021), 64.5 (2022), -21.2 (2023), -30.3 (2024), -12.4 (2025), -17.3 (2026).\n- Hydrocarbon exports (annual percent change): -15.7 (2019), -38.7 (2020), 63.8 (2021), 69.0 (2022), -22.3 (2023), -32.2 (2024), -13.8 (2025), -19.5 (2026).\n- Imports, f.o.b. (annual percent change): -22.0 (2019), -31.2 (2020), 22.3 (2021), 46.7 (2022), -21.5 (2023), -11.2 (2024), -4.1 (2025), -1.8 (2026).\n- Terms of trade (annual percent change): 12.5 (2019), -13.7 (2020), 24.9 (2021), 54.1 (2022), -15.4 (2023), -10.9 (2024), -0.3 (2025), -9.1 (2026), -6.5 (2027).\n- Gross investment (percent of GDP): 10.9 (2019), 4.6 (2020), 9.5 (2021), 9.8 (2022), 11.0 (2023), 11.1 (2024).\n- Gross national savings (percent of GDP): 10.0 (2019), 1.3 (2020), 7.9 (2021), 7.7 (2022), 18.6 (2023), 14.1 (2024), 15.3 (2025), 15.8 (2026), 16.0 (2027).\n- Of which : hydrocarbon revenue (percent of GDP): 14.8 (2019), 10.5 (2020), 13.3 (2021), 12.9 (2022), 10.8 (2023), 9.1 (2024), 7.6 (2025), 6.7 (2026).\n- Non-hydrocarbon revenue (percent of GDP): 3.6 (2019), 2.5 (2020), 3.7 (2021), 16.8 (2022), 12.7 (2023), 12.1 (2024), 11.8 (2025), 12.0 (2026).\n- Non-hydrocarbon primary balance (percent of GDP): -12.2 (2019), -11.1 (2020), -8.7 (2021), -8.5 (2022), -7.7 (2023), -6.9 (2024), -5.8 (2025).\n- Outstanding public debt (percent of GDP): 43.2 (2019), 48.4 (2020), 42.8 (2021), 27.1 (2022), 26.5 (2023), 28.5 (2024), 26.2 (2025), 24.1 (2026), 21.1 (2027).\n- Change in domestic arrears (percent of GDP): -2.3 (2019), -1.6 (2020).\n- Current account balance (including official transfers; - = deficit): -0.9 (2019), -2.1 (2020), -5.3 (2021), -7.1 (2022).\n- Total external public debt (percent of GDP): 14.0 (2019), 15.1 (2020), 8.4 (2021), 10.3 (2022), 9.2 (2023).\n- External debt service-to-exports ratio (percent): 3.2 (2019), 3.9 (2020), 6.9 (2021), 9.9 (2022).\n- External debt service/government revenue (percent): 11.9 (2019), 14.4 (2020), 9.4 (2021), 9.7 (2022), 11.2 (2023), 15.5 (2024).\n- CEMAC Foreign Reserves (US$ billions, end-of-period): 7.4 (2019), 7.8 (2020), 8.1 (2021), 12.8 (2022).\n- Nominal GDP (billions of CFA francs): 6,658 (2019), 5,813 (2020), 6,804 (2021), 9,819 (2022), 8,946 (2023), 7,794 (2024), 7,755 (2025), 7,667 (2026), 7,846 (2027).\n- Nominal GDP (millions of US dollars): 11,364 (2019), 10,099 (2020), 12,269 (2021).\n- Non-hydrocarbon GDP (billions of CFA francs): 3,905 (2019), 3,832 (2020), 4,003 (2021), 4,323 (2022), 4,707 (2023), 5,002 (2024), 5,410 (2025), 5,810 (2026), 6,214 (2027).\n- Exchange rate (average; CFA francs/U.S. dollar): 585.9 (2019), 575.6 (2020), 554.5 (2021).\n\nSource: IMF Press Release No. 22/280, \"IMF Executive Board Concludes 2022 Article IV Consultation with Equatorial Guinea.\"\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- Republic of Equatorial Guinea and the IMF\n- IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2022/07/29/pr22280-imf-executive-board-concludes-2022-article-iv-consultation-with-equatorial-guinea"
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    "Published: July 29, 2022",
    "On July 25, 2022, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund concluded the Article IV consultation with Equatorial Guinea.",
    "Equatorial Guinea’s oil-dependent economy is slowly emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic and the Bata explosions.",
    "Relaxation of pandemic containment measures and higher international oil prices are supporting economic activity, government revenues, and export earnings.",
    "Substantial challenges remain, including surging food prices, banking sector vulnerabilities, and a stalled structural reform agenda.",
    "Real GDP:",
    "Inflation:",
    "Sectoral projections (selected):",
    "External and fiscal indicators (selected projections and estimates):",
    "Balance of risks tilted to the downside.",
    "Upside scenarios:",
    "Downside scenarios:",
    "Directors agreed with the staff appraisal: economy emerging but severe challenges remain; risks tilted to the downside.",
    "Near-term priorities:",
    "Structural and governance priorities:",
    "Banking sector recommendations:",
    "Human capital and diversification:",
    "Fund support:",
    "Real GDP (annual percent change): -5.5 (2019), -4.2 (2020), -3.2 (2021), 5.8 (2022), -3.1 (2023), -12.3 (2024), -2.6 (2025), -4.7 (2026), -1.1 (2027).",
    "Hydrocarbon sectors (annual percent change): -8.8 (2019), -3.4 (2020), -7.3 (2021), 9.0 (2022), -8.3 (2023), -25.3 (2024), -10.0 (2025), -16.2 (2026), -9.0 (2027).",
    "Non-hydrocarbon sectors (annual percent change): -1.4 (2019), -5.2 (2020), 1.6 (2021), 2.4 (2022), 2.7 (2023), 0.7 (2024), 3.0 (2025), 3.1 (2026).",
    "GDP deflator (annual percent change): 20.9 (2019), 36.4 (2020), -6.0 (2021), -0.7 (2022), 2.1 (2023), 3.8 (2024), 3.5 (2025), 4.5 (2026), 5.4 (2027).",
    "Consumer prices (annual average): 1.2 (2019), 4.8 (2020), -0.1 (2021), 5.1 (2022), 5.7 (2023), 5.2 (2024), 4.7 (2025), 4.2 (2026).",
    "Consumer prices (end of period): 4.1 (2019), -0.5 (2020), 2.9 (2021), 4.0 (2022).",
    "Broad money (annual percent change): -6.3 (2019), -7.0 (2020), 0.4 (2021), 1.8 (2022), -8.9 (2023), -12.9 (2024), 2.3 (2025).",
    "Exports, f.o.b. (annual percent change): -16.5 (2019), -38.5 (2020), 57.6 (2021), 64.5 (2022), -21.2 (2023), -30.3 (2024), -12.4 (2025), -17.3 (2026).",
    "Hydrocarbon exports (annual percent change): -15.7 (2019), -38.7 (2020), 63.8 (2021), 69.0 (2022), -22.3 (2023), -32.2 (2024), -13.8 (2025), -19.5 (2026).",
    "Imports, f.o.b. (annual percent change): -22.0 (2019), -31.2 (2020), 22.3 (2021), 46.7 (2022), -21.5 (2023), -11.2 (2024), -4.1 (2025), -1.8 (2026).",
    "Terms of trade (annual percent change): 12.5 (2019), -13.7 (2020), 24.9 (2021), 54.1 (2022), -15.4 (2023), -10.9 (2024), -0.3 (2025), -9.1 (2026), -6.5 (2027).",
    "Gross investment (percent of GDP): 10.9 (2019), 4.6 (2020), 9.5 (2021), 9.8 (2022), 11.0 (2023), 11.1 (2024).",
    "Gross national savings (percent of GDP): 10.0 (2019), 1.3 (2020), 7.9 (2021), 7.7 (2022), 18.6 (2023), 14.1 (2024), 15.3 (2025), 15.8 (2026), 16.0 (2027).",
    "Of which : hydrocarbon revenue (percent of GDP): 14.8 (2019), 10.5 (2020), 13.3 (2021), 12.9 (2022), 10.8 (2023), 9.1 (2024), 7.6 (2025), 6.7 (2026).",
    "Non-hydrocarbon revenue (percent of GDP): 3.6 (2019), 2.5 (2020), 3.7 (2021), 16.8 (2022), 12.7 (2023), 12.1 (2024), 11.8 (2025), 12.0 (2026).",
    "Non-hydrocarbon primary balance (percent of GDP): -12.2 (2019), -11.1 (2020), -8.7 (2021), -8.5 (2022), -7.7 (2023), -6.9 (2024), -5.8 (2025).",
    "Outstanding public debt (percent of GDP): 43.2 (2019), 48.4 (2020), 42.8 (2021), 27.1 (2022), 26.5 (2023), 28.5 (2024), 26.2 (2025), 24.1 (2026), 21.1 (2027).",
    "Change in domestic arrears (percent of GDP): -2.3 (2019), -1.6 (2020).",
    "Current account balance (including official transfers; - = deficit): -0.9 (2019), -2.1 (2020), -5.3 (2021), -7.1 (2022).",
    "Total external public debt (percent of GDP): 14.0 (2019), 15.1 (2020), 8.4 (2021), 10.3 (2022), 9.2 (2023).",
    "External debt service-to-exports ratio (percent): 3.2 (2019), 3.9 (2020), 6.9 (2021), 9.9 (2022).",
    "External debt service/government revenue (percent): 11.9 (2019), 14.4 (2020), 9.4 (2021), 9.7 (2022), 11.2 (2023), 15.5 (2024).",
    "CEMAC Foreign Reserves (US$ billions, end-of-period): 7.4 (2019), 7.8 (2020), 8.1 (2021), 12.8 (2022).",
    "Nominal GDP (billions of CFA francs): 6,658 (2019), 5,813 (2020), 6,804 (2021), 9,819 (2022), 8,946 (2023), 7,794 (2024), 7,755 (2025), 7,667 (2026), 7,846 (2027).",
    "Nominal GDP (millions of US dollars): 11,364 (2019), 10,099 (2020), 12,269 (2021).",
    "Non-hydrocarbon GDP (billions of CFA francs): 3,905 (2019), 3,832 (2020), 4,003 (2021), 4,323 (2022), 4,707 (2023), 5,002 (2024), 5,410 (2025), 5,810 (2026), 6,214 (2027).",
    "Exchange rate (average; CFA francs/U.S. dollar): 585.9 (2019), 575.6 (2020), 554.5 (2021).",
    "[Republic of Equatorial Guinea and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/GNQ/index.htm)",
    "[IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)",
    "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm](http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
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