{
  "title": "IMF Executive Board Concludes 2022 Article IV Consultation with Thailand",
  "publication": "IMF News, September 1, 2022",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2022/09/01/pr22299-imf-executive-board-concludes-2022-article-iv-consultation-with-thailand",
  "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2022/09/01/pr22299-imf-executive-board-concludes-2022-article-iv-consultation-with-thailand",
  "overlayPath": "/en/news/articles/2022/09/01/pr22299-imf-executive-board-concludes-2022-article-iv-consultation-with-thailand/index.md",
  "summary": "IMF Executive Board Concludes 2022 Article IV Consultation with Thailand",
  "publishDate": "2022-09-01",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Economic Outlook and Recent Developments",
      "content": "- Thailand’s economy grew by 1.5 percent in 2021, supported by a multi-pronged policy support package and a rebound in exports.\n- The current account balance turned into a deficit of 1.7 percent of GDP in 2021, from a surplus of 4.2 percent of GDP in 2020, largely reflecting a sharp decline in tourism receipts and soaring shipping costs amid supply chain disruptions.\n- Headline inflation accelerated to 5.9 percent y/y during Jan-July 2022 from a 1.2 percent average inflation recorded in 2021, reflecting rising energy prices.\n- Real GDP is projected to grow by 2.8 percent in 2022, with GDP growth expected to rebound to about 4 percent in 2023 before trending down to its potential rate of about 3 percent in the medium term.\n- Headline inflation is expected to average 6.1 percent in 2022, before decelerating to 2.5 percent in 2023 (within the Bank of Thailand’s target range).\n- The current account deficit is expected to narrow to -0.8 percent of GDP in 2022 as tourism receipts pick up, and to return to a surplus of around 3-3.5 percent of GDP over the medium term.\n- Key downside risks identified: prolonged war in Ukraine (soaring energy prices), a disorderly tightening of global financial conditions, spillovers from a sharper growth slowdown in China, and fragile private sector balance sheets."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Executive Board Assessment and Policy Guidance",
      "content": "- Directors commended the authorities for a bold and appropriate policy response that maintained macroeconomic and financial stability and supported the growth rebound.\n- Recovery characterization: fragile and uneven; risks to the outlook tilted to the downside.\n- Policy stance: authorities should remain agile and press ahead with structural reforms to support sustainable, inclusive growth.\n- Coordination: importance of a well-coordinated and integrated approach to recalibrate monetary, exchange rate, and fiscal policies if adverse scenarios materialize.\n\nMonetary and Financial Policy\n- Directors welcomed the Bank of Thailand’s efforts to ensure inflation expectations remain well anchored.\n- Emphasized a data-dependent monetary policy normalization path; welcomed the recent policy rate increase and clear communication of gradual normalization.\n- Welcomed progress in strengthening financial sector risk analysis, supervision of specialized financial institutions, and bank resolution.\n- Encouraged acceleration of household debt restructuring, accompanied by gradual tapering of financial sector support measures.\n- Continued efforts to enhance the AML/CFT framework are important.\n- FX policy: Directors welcomed the authorities’ commitment to exchange rate flexibility and easing of foreign exchange regulations; concurred that FX interventions should be limited to avoiding disorderly market conditions.\n\nFiscal Policy\n- Directors agreed with near-term fiscal consolidation and encouraged gradual replacement of untargeted energy subsidies with targeted support to vulnerable groups.\n- Over the medium term, recommended a more gradual fiscal consolidation underpinned by enhanced domestic revenue mobilization to support structural reforms and rebuild policy buffers.\n- Enhancing fiscal governance and transparency remains a priority.\n\nStructural Reforms\n- Encouraged implementation of a well-coordinated structural reform agenda, supported by capacity development, to boost potential output and capture digital and green transformation opportunities.\n- Highlighted importance of enhancing human capital to close the skills gap.\n- Welcomed efforts to reposition Thailand’s financial sector for a sustainable, digital economy and emphasized balancing efficiency gains from financial innovation against financial stability risks."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key Statistics and Projections (selected figures from Table 1)",
      "content": "- Real GDP growth (y/y percent change): 2018: 4.2; 2019: 2.2; 2020: -6.2; 2021: 1.5; 2022: 2.8; 2023: 4.0.\n- Consumption (growth): 2018: 4.1; 2019: 3.4; 2020: -0.6; 2021: -0.2; 2022: 5.1; 2023: 0.5.\n- Gross fixed investment (growth): 2018: 3.9; 2019: 2.0; 2020: -4.8; 2021: 4.5; 2022: 1.2.\n- Headline CPI (period average): 2018: 1.1; 2019: 0.7; 2020: -0.8; 2021: 1.2 (average); 2022: 6.1 (projection); 2023: 2.5 (projection).\n- Core CPI (period average): 2018: 0.3; 2019: 0.2; 2020: 2.6; 2021: 1.7.\n- Gross domestic investment (percent of GDP): 2018: 25.2; 2019: 23.8; 2020: 23.7; 2021: 29.1; 2022: 29.2; 2023: 27.7.\n- Gross national saving (percent of GDP): 2018: 30.8; 2019: 27.9; 2020: 26.9; 2021: 28.5; 2022: 29.9.\n- Foreign saving (percent of GDP): 2018: -5.6; 2019: -7.0; 2020: -4.2; 2021: 0.8; 2022: -2.2.\n- Public sector balance (percent of GDP): 2018: -0.3; 2019: -7.4; 2020: -3.0; 2021: (table shows values for later years).\n- Public sector debt (end of period): 2018: 41.9; 2019: 41.1; 2020: 49.5; 2021: 58.4; 2022: 61.2; 2023: 61.4.\n- Broad money growth (end of period, y/y percent change): 2018: 4.7; 2019: 3.6; 2020: 10.2; 2021: 4.8; 2022: 3.5.\n- Current account balance (In billions of U.S. dollars): 2018: 28.4; 2019: 38.0; 2020: 21.2; 2021: -11.0; 2022: 12.5 (projection).\n- Current account balance (In percent of GDP): 2018: 5.6; 2019: 7.0; 2020: (table entries include 2021 negative and projections).\n- Exports, f.o.b. (In billions of U.S. dollars): 2018: 251.1; 2019: 242.7; 2020: 227.0; 2021: 270.6; 2022: 301.7; 2023: 312.5.\n- Imports, f.o.b. (In billions of U.S. dollars): 2018: 228.7; 2019: 216.0; 2020: 186.1; 2021: 230.7; 2022: 271.9; 2023: 280.9.\n- Gross official reserves (end of period, In billions of U.S. dollars): 2018: 239.4; 2019: 258.7; 2020: 287.4; 2021: 279.2.\n- Months of following year's imports (reserves): 2018: 13.3; 2019: 16.7; 2020: 15.0; 2021: 12.3; 2022: 11.9; 2023: 11.2.\n- External debt (percent of GDP): 2018: 32.2; 2019: 31.6; 2020: 38.2; 2021: 39.0; 2022: 39.4.\n- External debt (In billions of U.S. dollars): 2018: 163.1; 2019: 171.9; 2020: 190.7; 2021: 197.5; 2022: 210.3; 2023: 225.5.\n- Public sector external debt (In billions of U.S. dollars, excludes state enterprises): 2018: 35.7; 2019: 37.2; 2020: 41.5; 2021: 41.8; 2022: 42.4.\n- Private sector external debt (In billions of U.S. dollars): 2018: 127.4; 2019: 133.9; 2020: 153.5; 2021: 156.0; 2022: 168.5; 2023: 183.0.\n- Medium- and long-term external debt (In billions of U.S. dollars): 2018: 65.9; 2019: 74.6; 2020: 80.0; 2021: 84.1; 2022: 99.1; 2023: 109.7.\n- Short-term (including portfolio flows) external debt (In billions of U.S. dollars): 2018: 61.5; 2019: 59.3; 2020: 73.5; 2021: 71.8; 2022: 69.4; 2023: 73.3.\n- Nominal GDP (billions of baht): 2018: 16,373.3; 2019: 16,892.4; 2020: 15,636.9; 2021: 16,178.7; 2022: 17,295.2; 2023: 18,156.5."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Notable Assessments and Observations",
      "content": "- Most Directors judged Thailand's external position as moderately stronger than warranted by medium term fundamentals and desirable policies; some Directors urged more cautious interpretation due to pandemic-induced structural shifts.\n- Authorities’ commitments: exchange rate flexibility and easing foreign exchange regulations.\n- Recovery prospects critically hinge on return of foreign tourists.\n- Policy buffers: rebuilding buffers through prudent fiscal and macroeconomic management emphasized.\n\nIMF Press Release No. 22/299 — Executive Board Concludes 2022 Article IV Consultation with Thailand\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- Thailand and the IMF\n- IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2022/09/01/pr22299-imf-executive-board-concludes-2022-article-iv-consultation-with-thailand"
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "[Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2022/09/01/pr22299-imf-executive-board-concludes-2022-article-iv-consultation-with-thailand/index.md)",
    "[Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2022/09/01/pr22299-imf-executive-board-concludes-2022-article-iv-consultation-with-thailand/index.json)",
    "[Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2022/09/01/pr22299-imf-executive-board-concludes-2022-article-iv-consultation-with-thailand/bundle-manifest.json)",
    "Published: September 1, 2022",
    "Thailand’s economy grew by 1.5 percent in 2021, supported by a multi-pronged policy support package and a rebound in exports.",
    "The current account balance turned into a deficit of 1.7 percent of GDP in 2021, from a surplus of 4.2 percent of GDP in 2020, largely reflecting a sharp decline in tourism receipts and soaring shipping costs amid supply chain disruptions.",
    "Headline inflation accelerated to 5.9 percent y/y during Jan-July 2022 from a 1.2 percent average inflation recorded in 2021, reflecting rising energy prices.",
    "Real GDP is projected to grow by 2.8 percent in 2022, with GDP growth expected to rebound to about 4 percent in 2023 before trending down to its potential rate of about 3 percent in the medium term.",
    "Headline inflation is expected to average 6.1 percent in 2022, before decelerating to 2.5 percent in 2023 (within the Bank of Thailand’s target range).",
    "The current account deficit is expected to narrow to -0.8 percent of GDP in 2022 as tourism receipts pick up, and to return to a surplus of around 3-3.5 percent of GDP over the medium term.",
    "Key downside risks identified: prolonged war in Ukraine (soaring energy prices), a disorderly tightening of global financial conditions, spillovers from a sharper growth slowdown in China, and fragile private sector balance sheets.",
    "Directors commended the authorities for a bold and appropriate policy response that maintained macroeconomic and financial stability and supported the growth rebound.",
    "Recovery characterization: fragile and uneven; risks to the outlook tilted to the downside.",
    "Policy stance: authorities should remain agile and press ahead with structural reforms to support sustainable, inclusive growth.",
    "Coordination: importance of a well-coordinated and integrated approach to recalibrate monetary, exchange rate, and fiscal policies if adverse scenarios materialize.",
    "Directors welcomed the Bank of Thailand’s efforts to ensure inflation expectations remain well anchored.",
    "Emphasized a data-dependent monetary policy normalization path; welcomed the recent policy rate increase and clear communication of gradual normalization.",
    "Welcomed progress in strengthening financial sector risk analysis, supervision of specialized financial institutions, and bank resolution.",
    "Encouraged acceleration of household debt restructuring, accompanied by gradual tapering of financial sector support measures.",
    "Continued efforts to enhance the AML/CFT framework are important.",
    "FX policy: Directors welcomed the authorities’ commitment to exchange rate flexibility and easing of foreign exchange regulations; concurred that FX interventions should be limited to avoiding disorderly market conditions.",
    "Directors agreed with near-term fiscal consolidation and encouraged gradual replacement of untargeted energy subsidies with targeted support to vulnerable groups.",
    "Over the medium term, recommended a more gradual fiscal consolidation underpinned by enhanced domestic revenue mobilization to support structural reforms and rebuild policy buffers.",
    "Enhancing fiscal governance and transparency remains a priority.",
    "Encouraged implementation of a well-coordinated structural reform agenda, supported by capacity development, to boost potential output and capture digital and green transformation opportunities.",
    "Highlighted importance of enhancing human capital to close the skills gap.",
    "Welcomed efforts to reposition Thailand’s financial sector for a sustainable, digital economy and emphasized balancing efficiency gains from financial innovation against financial stability risks.",
    "Real GDP growth (y/y percent change): 2018: 4.2; 2019: 2.2; 2020: -6.2; 2021: 1.5; 2022: 2.8; 2023: 4.0.",
    "Consumption (growth): 2018: 4.1; 2019: 3.4; 2020: -0.6; 2021: -0.2; 2022: 5.1; 2023: 0.5.",
    "Gross fixed investment (growth): 2018: 3.9; 2019: 2.0; 2020: -4.8; 2021: 4.5; 2022: 1.2.",
    "Headline CPI (period average): 2018: 1.1; 2019: 0.7; 2020: -0.8; 2021: 1.2 (average); 2022: 6.1 (projection); 2023: 2.5 (projection).",
    "Core CPI (period average): 2018: 0.3; 2019: 0.2; 2020: 2.6; 2021: 1.7.",
    "Gross domestic investment (percent of GDP): 2018: 25.2; 2019: 23.8; 2020: 23.7; 2021: 29.1; 2022: 29.2; 2023: 27.7.",
    "Gross national saving (percent of GDP): 2018: 30.8; 2019: 27.9; 2020: 26.9; 2021: 28.5; 2022: 29.9.",
    "Foreign saving (percent of GDP): 2018: -5.6; 2019: -7.0; 2020: -4.2; 2021: 0.8; 2022: -2.2.",
    "Public sector balance (percent of GDP): 2018: -0.3; 2019: -7.4; 2020: -3.0; 2021: (table shows values for later years).",
    "Public sector debt (end of period): 2018: 41.9; 2019: 41.1; 2020: 49.5; 2021: 58.4; 2022: 61.2; 2023: 61.4.",
    "Broad money growth (end of period, y/y percent change): 2018: 4.7; 2019: 3.6; 2020: 10.2; 2021: 4.8; 2022: 3.5.",
    "Current account balance (In billions of U.S. dollars): 2018: 28.4; 2019: 38.0; 2020: 21.2; 2021: -11.0; 2022: 12.5 (projection).",
    "Current account balance (In percent of GDP): 2018: 5.6; 2019: 7.0; 2020: (table entries include 2021 negative and projections).",
    "Exports, f.o.b. (In billions of U.S. dollars): 2018: 251.1; 2019: 242.7; 2020: 227.0; 2021: 270.6; 2022: 301.7; 2023: 312.5.",
    "Imports, f.o.b. (In billions of U.S. dollars): 2018: 228.7; 2019: 216.0; 2020: 186.1; 2021: 230.7; 2022: 271.9; 2023: 280.9.",
    "Gross official reserves (end of period, In billions of U.S. dollars): 2018: 239.4; 2019: 258.7; 2020: 287.4; 2021: 279.2.",
    "Months of following year's imports (reserves): 2018: 13.3; 2019: 16.7; 2020: 15.0; 2021: 12.3; 2022: 11.9; 2023: 11.2.",
    "External debt (percent of GDP): 2018: 32.2; 2019: 31.6; 2020: 38.2; 2021: 39.0; 2022: 39.4.",
    "External debt (In billions of U.S. dollars): 2018: 163.1; 2019: 171.9; 2020: 190.7; 2021: 197.5; 2022: 210.3; 2023: 225.5.",
    "Public sector external debt (In billions of U.S. dollars, excludes state enterprises): 2018: 35.7; 2019: 37.2; 2020: 41.5; 2021: 41.8; 2022: 42.4.",
    "Private sector external debt (In billions of U.S. dollars): 2018: 127.4; 2019: 133.9; 2020: 153.5; 2021: 156.0; 2022: 168.5; 2023: 183.0.",
    "Medium- and long-term external debt (In billions of U.S. dollars): 2018: 65.9; 2019: 74.6; 2020: 80.0; 2021: 84.1; 2022: 99.1; 2023: 109.7.",
    "Short-term (including portfolio flows) external debt (In billions of U.S. dollars): 2018: 61.5; 2019: 59.3; 2020: 73.5; 2021: 71.8; 2022: 69.4; 2023: 73.3.",
    "Nominal GDP (billions of baht): 2018: 16,373.3; 2019: 16,892.4; 2020: 15,636.9; 2021: 16,178.7; 2022: 17,295.2; 2023: 18,156.5.",
    "Most Directors judged Thailand's external position as moderately stronger than warranted by medium term fundamentals and desirable policies; some Directors urged more cautious interpretation due to pandemic-induced structural shifts.",
    "Authorities’ commitments: exchange rate flexibility and easing foreign exchange regulations.",
    "Recovery prospects critically hinge on return of foreign tourists.",
    "Policy buffers: rebuilding buffers through prudent fiscal and macroeconomic management emphasized.",
    "[Thailand and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/THA/index.htm)",
    "[IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)",
    "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm](http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
  ],
  "alternates": {
    "markdown": "/en/news/articles/2022/09/01/pr22299-imf-executive-board-concludes-2022-article-iv-consultation-with-thailand/index.md",
    "json": "/en/news/articles/2022/09/01/pr22299-imf-executive-board-concludes-2022-article-iv-consultation-with-thailand/index.json",
    "bundleManifest": "/en/news/articles/2022/09/01/pr22299-imf-executive-board-concludes-2022-article-iv-consultation-with-thailand/bundle-manifest.json"
  },
  "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-26T01:28:58.183Z"
}