{ "title": "Overcoming Fragmentation: 'Stay Open, Connected and Balanced', Remark by Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director, IMF at APEC Leaders’ Summit", "publication": "IMF News, November 19, 2022", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2022/11/19/sp111922-md-remarks-at-apec-leaders-summit", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2022/11/19/sp111922-md-remarks-at-apec-leaders-summit", "overlayPath": "/en/news/articles/2022/11/19/sp111922-md-remarks-at-apec-leaders-summit/index.md", "summary": "Overcoming Fragmentation: 'Stay Open, Connected and Balanced', Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director, IMF, APEC Leaders’ Summit, Bangkok, Thailand", "publishDate": "2022-11-19", "sections": [ { "heading": "The World has Changed", "content": "- Pandemic and war: the COVID pandemic and the war in Ukraine produced lasting economic disruptions.\n- Permanent output loss from the pandemic:\n - 5.3% of global GDP.\n - In Asia: a loss of 9% of GDP.\n- Energy shock: the war in Ukraine caused a tremendous energy price shock.\n- Growth and macro shifts:\n - Global growth slowed from 6.1% in 2021 to 3.1% in 2022.\n - Consequences: high inflation, high and rising debt levels, and an increase in inequality in many countries.\n- Geopolitical and macro environment: shift from a relatively predictable world with low inflation and low interest rates to a more volatile, uncertain, and fragmented world—especially in terms of trade—with high inflation and high interest rates." }, { "heading": "The Global Economy and APEC are Slowing", "content": "- Near-term projection and outlook:\n - \"The IMF is projecting global growth to slip to 2.7% next year.\"\n - \"Most APEC countries are decelerating and at least one third of the world is going to be in recession.\"\n - \"The three major engines of global growth -- U.S., China, and Europe -- are slowing down simultaneously.\"\n- Regional and sectoral notes:\n - Bright spots: ASEAN; some countries benefiting from terms of trade improvements (for example, in the Gulf).\n - Downside risks predominate.\n- Inflation and policy trade-offs:\n - \"The risk of inflation is a clear and present danger.\"\n - Policy guidance: fiscal policy must target the most vulnerable without undermining monetary policy and the fight against inflation — \"with monetary policy stepping on the brakes, fiscal policy should not step on the accelerator.\"\n- Emerging markets and financial stability risks:\n - Negative spillovers from tightening by major central banks due to currency depreciation and higher borrowing costs.\n - Financial stability risks include volatile capital flows, higher debt service, and higher leverage especially in the private sector.\n - Banks are sound, but non-bank financial institutions that have not been regulated are a concern.\n - Concerning developments in the crypto market.\n- Climate risk:\n - \"For the first time this year, we have seen climate shocks across all continents, with Asia-Pacific disproportionately affected.\"\n - Since 1989, 36% of climate-related disasters have occurred in this region.\n- Fragmentation risk:\n - Warning: risk of \"sleepwalking into a poorer, less secure world\" and drifting away from factors that improved global welfare." }, { "heading": "APEC Gains Most from Integration and Risks Losing Most from Fragmentation", "content": "- APEC composition and integration benefits:\n - APEC comprises \"21 economies representing 60% of global GDP.\"\n - Asia: strongest regional value chains.\n - Latin America's biggest trading partners are across the Pacific.\n - \"Two-thirds of U.S. imports comes from APEC.\"\n- Development impact of integration:\n - Over the last three decades, \"1.5 billion people were lifted out of poverty and hundreds of millions entered the middle class.\"\n- Cost of fragmentation (IMF analysis):\n - If the world divided into two distinct blocs with little or no trade between them:\n - Output would drop by more than 1.5% of global GDP: a loss of about $1.5 trillion.\n - In Asia, losses would double to more than 3 percent of GDP.\n - Additional human costs: poverty, hunger, and social unrest.\n- Imperative: fragmentation need not be inevitable." }, { "heading": "Responding to Fragmentation: Stay Open, Connected, Balanced", "content": "- Summit message: three recent summits in Asia delivered one message: work together.\n- Endorsed APEC theme: 'Open, Connect, Balance.'\n- Policy actions:\n - Stay open: rollback trade restrictions; remove non-tariff barriers.\n - Stay connected: support strong regional agreements like the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership; work to make the WTO stronger; leverage digitalization to shape a better-connected world and improve people's lives.\n - Stay balanced: ensure growth is more inclusive to protect vulnerable people and gender equality; ensure growth is more sustainable and addresses climate change." }, { "heading": "The IMF is APEC's Partner", "content": "- IMF actions to help members navigate shocks:\n - Emergency financing to 96 countries;\n - A historic $650 billion SDR allocation;\n - A new Resilience and Sustainability Trust—long-term financing for structural transformation to address the risk of climate change.\n- Commitment: \"The IMF is committed to partnering even more closely with APEC.\"" }, { "heading": "Facing Shocks, Building Resilience: Together", "content": "- Premise: \"We live in a more shock-prone world. That means more shocks will come.\"\n- Resilience priorities:\n - Resilient people: educated and healthy, with strong social safety nets.\n - Resilient economy: strong macroeconomic fundamentals and agile, adaptable policies.\n - Resilient planet: pass on a sustainable planet to the next generation.\n- Closing conviction: \"I am convinced that we can do this -- together.\"\n\nRemark by Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director, IMF at APEC Leaders’ Summit (As prepared for delivery).\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- https://www.imf.org/en/about/senior-officials/bios/kristalina-georgieva\n- People's Republic of China and the IMF\n- Ukraine and the IMF\n- Thailand and the IMF\n- Speeches\n- PRESS CENTER\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2022/11/19/sp111922-md-remarks-at-apec-leaders-summit" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2022/11/19/sp111922-md-remarks-at-apec-leaders-summit/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2022/11/19/sp111922-md-remarks-at-apec-leaders-summit/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2022/11/19/sp111922-md-remarks-at-apec-leaders-summit/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: November 19, 2022", "Pandemic and war: the COVID pandemic and the war in Ukraine produced lasting economic disruptions.", "Permanent output loss from the pandemic:", "Energy shock: the war in Ukraine caused a tremendous energy price shock.", "Growth and macro shifts:", "Geopolitical and macro environment: shift from a relatively predictable world with low inflation and low interest rates to a more volatile, uncertain, and fragmented world—especially in terms of trade—with high inflation and high interest rates.", "Near-term projection and outlook:", "Regional and sectoral notes:", "Inflation and policy trade-offs:", "Emerging markets and financial stability risks:", "Climate risk:", "Fragmentation risk:", "APEC composition and integration benefits:", "Development impact of integration:", "Cost of fragmentation (IMF analysis):", "Imperative: fragmentation need not be inevitable.", "Summit message: three recent summits in Asia delivered one message: work together.", "Endorsed APEC theme: 'Open, Connect, Balance.'", "Policy actions:", "IMF actions to help members navigate shocks:", "Commitment: \"The IMF is committed to partnering even more closely with APEC.\"", "Premise: \"We live in a more shock-prone world. That means more shocks will come.\"", "Resilience priorities:", "Closing conviction: \"I am convinced that we can do this -- together.\"", "[https://www.imf.org/en/about/senior-officials/bios/kristalina-georgieva](https://www.imf.org/en/about/senior-officials/bios/kristalina-georgieva)", "[People's Republic of China and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/CHN/index.htm)", "[Ukraine and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/UKR/index.htm)", "[Thailand and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/THA/index.htm)", "[Speeches](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)", "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)", "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)" ], "alternates": { "markdown": "/en/news/articles/2022/11/19/sp111922-md-remarks-at-apec-leaders-summit/index.md", "json": "/en/news/articles/2022/11/19/sp111922-md-remarks-at-apec-leaders-summit/index.json", "bundleManifest": "/en/news/articles/2022/11/19/sp111922-md-remarks-at-apec-leaders-summit/bundle-manifest.json" }, "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-26T01:40:15.755Z" }