{
  "title": "Opening Remarks for the Press Briefing of the 2022 China Article IV Staff Report",
  "publication": "IMF News, February 3, 2023",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2023/02/01/sp-china-aiv-press-briefing-opening-remarks",
  "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2023/02/01/sp-china-aiv-press-briefing-opening-remarks",
  "overlayPath": "/en/news/articles/2023/02/01/sp-china-aiv-press-briefing-opening-remarks/index.md",
  "summary": "The discussions for 2022 Article IV Consultation with China took place in the first half of November last year. The projections in the Article IV Staff Report were finalized in mid–December for an Executive Board discussion that took place in mid-January.",
  "authors": [
    "Thomas Helbling"
  ],
  "publishDate": "2023-02-03",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Growth projections and timing of consultations",
      "content": "- The discussions for the 2022 Article IV Consultation with China took place in the first half of November last year.\n- The projections in the Article IV Staff Report were finalized in mid–December for an Executive Board discussion that took place in mid-January.\n- China’s 2022 Q4 GDP outcome was released after the Executive Board meeting; forecasts were revised for the January 2023 WEO Update (not included in the Staff Report or Staff Supplement).\n- Key numeric forecast:\n  - We now project growth to increase from 3 percent in 2022 to 5.2 percent in 2023 driven by a rebound in private consumption amid the earlier-than-anticipated reopening in China.\n- The growth forecast is subject to a high degree of uncertainty, including due to the future evolution of the virus."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Risks and uncertainty",
      "content": "- Downside risks:\n  - Potential economic disruptions from the current and future waves of covid infections.\n  - A sharper-than-expected slowdown in the property sector.\n  - The reopening could lead to stronger-than-expected inflationary pressures.\n- Upside risks:\n  - An even stronger recovery in private consumption and investment."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Near-term macro policy guidance",
      "content": "- Given the still-negative output gap in 2023 and significant downside risks, policymakers should avoid a premature tightening of macroeconomic policies.\n- Recommended stance:\n  - A neutral fiscal stance with the composition of spending shifted toward households would support the recovery.\n  - Additional monetary policy accommodation would help secure the recovery as slack in the economy remains significant and inflation pressures are muted.\n- Note on policy timing:\n  - Support provided in 2022 will expire, reinforcing the need to maintain appropriate accommodation in 2023."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Real estate sector recommendations",
      "content": "- Authorities’ recent policy measures are welcome but additional action is needed to end the real estate crisis.\n- Specific recommendations:\n  - Increase further funding for completion of troubled projects.\n  - Promote market-based restructuring.\n- Expected benefits:\n  - Help restore homebuyer confidence.\n  - Contain financial stability risks."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Structural reforms to lift potential growth",
      "content": "- China’s potential growth is experiencing headwinds from demographic trends and slowing productivity growth.\n- Key structural policy priorities:\n  - Reaccelerate pro-growth reforms.\n  - Further open domestic markets.\n  - Ensure competitive neutrality between private firms and state-owned enterprises.\n- Objective:\n  - Shore up low productivity growth at a time of shrinking labor supply."
    },
    {
      "heading": "China’s global role",
      "content": "- Together with other countries, China can play a leading role in:\n  - Addressing geoeconomic tensions.\n  - Alleviating debt pressures in economies facing debt distress.\n  - Strengthening global trade openness and transparency.\n  - Confronting climate change.\n\nOpening Remarks for the Press Briefing of the 2022 China Article IV Staff Report — By Thomas Helbling, Deputy Director, Asia and Pacific Department, February 3, 2023\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- China’s Economy is Rebounding, But Reforms Are Still Needed\n- People's Republic of China and the IMF\n- IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet\n- Speeches\n- PRESS CENTER\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2023/02/01/sp-china-aiv-press-briefing-opening-remarks"
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "[Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2023/02/01/sp-china-aiv-press-briefing-opening-remarks/index.md)",
    "[Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2023/02/01/sp-china-aiv-press-briefing-opening-remarks/index.json)",
    "[Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2023/02/01/sp-china-aiv-press-briefing-opening-remarks/bundle-manifest.json)",
    "Authors: Thomas Helbling",
    "Published: February 3, 2023",
    "The discussions for the 2022 Article IV Consultation with China took place in the first half of November last year.",
    "The projections in the Article IV Staff Report were finalized in mid–December for an Executive Board discussion that took place in mid-January.",
    "China’s 2022 Q4 GDP outcome was released after the Executive Board meeting; forecasts were revised for the January 2023 WEO Update (not included in the Staff Report or Staff Supplement).",
    "Key numeric forecast:",
    "The growth forecast is subject to a high degree of uncertainty, including due to the future evolution of the virus.",
    "Downside risks:",
    "Upside risks:",
    "Given the still-negative output gap in 2023 and significant downside risks, policymakers should avoid a premature tightening of macroeconomic policies.",
    "Recommended stance:",
    "Note on policy timing:",
    "Authorities’ recent policy measures are welcome but additional action is needed to end the real estate crisis.",
    "Specific recommendations:",
    "Expected benefits:",
    "China’s potential growth is experiencing headwinds from demographic trends and slowing productivity growth.",
    "Key structural policy priorities:",
    "Objective:",
    "Together with other countries, China can play a leading role in:",
    "[China’s Economy is Rebounding, But Reforms Are Still Needed](https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2023/02/02/cf-chinas-economy-is-rebounding-but-reforms-are-still-needed)",
    "[People's Republic of China and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/CHN/index.htm)",
    "[IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)",
    "[Speeches](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
  ],
  "alternates": {
    "markdown": "/en/news/articles/2023/02/01/sp-china-aiv-press-briefing-opening-remarks/index.md",
    "json": "/en/news/articles/2023/02/01/sp-china-aiv-press-briefing-opening-remarks/index.json",
    "bundleManifest": "/en/news/articles/2023/02/01/sp-china-aiv-press-briefing-opening-remarks/bundle-manifest.json"
  },
  "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-26T01:49:39.486Z"
}