## Libya: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2023 Article IV Mission

_IMF News, March 17, 2023_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Libya: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2023 Article IV Mission](https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2023/03/17/cs03172023-libya-staff-concluding-statement-of-the-2023-article-iv-mission)

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## Bibliographic details
- Published: March 17, 2023

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### Reengagement and data improvements
- The IMF resumed Article IV consultations with Libya after a decade-long hiatus.
- The fragmentation of the country following the fall of the Ghaddafi regime in 2011 suspended production of key economic indicators and complicated policymaking.
- Authorities have recently made commendable progress towards improving data collection, sharing and transparency.
- The IMF’s new Fragile and Conflict-Affected States (FCS) strategy provided flexibility that helped pave the way for resumption of Article IV consultations.
- The mission held discussions in Tunis, Tunisia during March 11-17, 2023.

### Macroeconomic stability and monetary policy
- Libya’s institutional framework helped the country through a period of significant macroeconomic volatility and turmoil.
- There have been exceptional swings in oil production and revenues since 2011.
- Measures taken by the Central Bank of Libya, including the currency’s devaluation, helped maintain a large stock of international reserves.
- Looking ahead, the stability of the exchange rate will remain an important anchor for monetary policy.

### Oil and gas outlook, fiscal and external projections, and risks
- Hydrocarbon production is projected to grow by around 15 percent in 2023.
- Oil production increased from 1 million barrels per day in 2022 to around 1.2 million barrels per day in 2023.
- Baseline projection (assuming fiscal spending remains contained) is for gradually declining fiscal and external surpluses over coming years.
- Key risks to the outlook:
  - Lower oil prices due to lower-than-expected global growth.
  - Renewed conflict and/or social unrest that leads to disruptions in oil production.

### Structural challenges and policy recommendations
- There is an urgent need for a clear economic vision for the country.
- The speed of the international mobilization to reduce carbon emissions and recent leaps in clean energy technology pose a risk of disorderly adjustment for economies dependent on oil.
- Libya is at risk of falling behind these important global trends.
- Libya faces the challenge of reducing its reliance on hydrocarbons while fostering stronger and more inclusive private sector-led growth.
- Structural reform priorities:
  - Strengthen institutions.
  - Develop a more purposeful and transparent economic strategy for the future.
  - Optimize the use of oil revenue to achieve economic diversification and improve living standards and inclusivity.
  - Use reform efforts as an opportunity to rally the population behind a clear plan.

### IMF engagement and support
- The mission thanks the Central Bank of Libya and other counterparts for their hospitality, constructive policy dialogue, and productive collaboration.
- The IMF stands ready to continue to offer capacity development to enhance macroeconomic management and better prepare the country for post-conflict rebuilding efforts.

*IMF staff concluding statement of the 2023 Article IV mission for Libya (mission held March 11-17, 2023).*

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## References

- [Libya and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/LBY/index.htm)
- [Tunisia and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/TUN/index.htm)
- [IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)
- [Mission Concluding Statements](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)
- [PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)
- [(FCS)](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Policy-Papers/Issues/2022/03/14/The-IMF-Strategy-for-Fragile-and-Conflict-Affected-States-515129)
- [https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2023/03/17/cs03172023-libya-staff-concluding-statement-of-the-2023-article-iv-mission_