{
  "title": "IMF Executive Board Concludes 2023 Article IV Consultation with Mali",
  "publication": "IMF News, May 26, 2023",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2023/05/26/pr23182-mali-article-iv-consultation",
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  "summary": "The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the 2023 Article IV consultation with Mali and endorsed the staff appraisal.",
  "publishDate": "2023-05-26",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Economic performance and outlook",
      "content": "- Real GDP growth increased from 3.1 percent in 2021 to 3.7 percent in 2022.\n- Growth is projected to rebound to over 5 percent in 2023 and 2024, assuming strong agricultural and gold output.\n- Headline inflation reached 10 percent in 2022; projected to come down to 5 percent in 2023 and to 2 percent in 2024 as global energy and food prices decline.\n- Mali’s economy remained resilient in 2022 despite elevated security and socio-political challenges, regional sanctions in the first half of 2022, and a high incidence of food insecurity."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key risks to the outlook",
      "content": "- Worsening security situation.\n- Potential election delays.\n- Volatile international commodity prices.\n- Tighter global financial conditions.\n- Climate risks.\n- Tightening of financing conditions due to lack of external budget support and higher global interest rates; regional market tightening poses additional financing risks."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Fiscal position and public debt",
      "content": "- Fiscal deficit was just under 5 percent of GDP in 2022, reflecting a rapid increase in security spending, public wages, and the interest bill.\n- Lack of external budget support—halted after two coups d’état in 2020 and 2021 and unlikely to resume until after elections are held in 2024—contributes to tightening financing conditions.\n- Public debt trajectory (percent of GDP):\n  - Public debt: 50.4 (2021), 52.5 (2022), 53.8 (2023), 54.6 (2024), 55.1 (2025), 55.2 (2026)\n  - External public debt: 28.3 (2021), 27.3 (2022), 25.6 (2023), 24.3 (2024), 24.0 (2025), 23.9 (2026)\n  - Domestic public debt: 22.0 (2021), 28.2 (2022), 30.4 (2023), 31.1 (2024), 31.3 (2025), (2026 value not listed)\n- Debt service: 5.5 (2021), 6.5 (2022), 9.9 (2023), 10.2 (2024), 12.4 (2025), 13.2 (2026)"
    },
    {
      "heading": "External sector",
      "content": "- Current account balance: -7.5 (2021), -6.9 (2022), -6.1 (2023), -5.5 (2024), -3.4 (2025), -3.7 (2026) (percent of GDP)\n- Current account deficit improved slightly in 2022 to 6.9 percent of GDP from 7.5 percent in 2021, on account of higher gold exports and lower capital goods imports.\n- In the medium term, the current account deficit is projected to fall to below 4 percent due to strong gold and agricultural exports.\n- Terms of trade (deterioration -): -9.4 (2021), -22.0 (2022), 23.4 (2023), 1.5 (2024), 3.4 (2025), -0.4 (2026)"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Monetary and credit indicators",
      "content": "- Credit to the government: 32.3 (2021), 77.7 (2022), 44.9 (2023), 21.3 (2024), 8.1 (2025), 3.3 (2026)\n- Credit to the economy: 15.9 (2021), 14.9 (2022), 8.0 (2023), 7.4 (2024), 7.2 (2025)\n- Broad money (M2): 17.0 (2021), 11.7 (2022)"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Board conclusions and policy recommendations",
      "content": "- Executive Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal, noting resilience in 2022 but significant remaining challenges including a marked rise in public debt amid tighter financing conditions and downside risks to the outlook.\n- Fiscal consolidation:\n  - Pursue an ambitious fiscal consolidation to reduce the deficit in the near term and bring it below 3 percent of GDP by 2025, while protecting growth-enhancing capital spending.\n  - Recommend greater domestic revenue mobilization, containing the rapidly rising public sector wage bill, and enhancing the efficiency and management of public spending.\n- Social protection:\n  - Protect the most vulnerable amid rising poverty and food insecurity.\n  - Reprioritize social spending, strengthen the social safety net, and scale up targeted measures while phasing out untargeted subsidies.\n- Governance, transparency, and institutions:\n  - Steadfast implementation of governance and other reforms to improve confidence, boost economic growth, and reduce poverty.\n  - Improve financial performance and transparency of state-owned enterprises.\n  - Address governance weaknesses and corruption, including by strengthening the asset declaration regime and improving transparency in public procurement and the mining industry.\n  - Improve the business environment, strengthen the AML/CFT framework, and reform the education and health systems to improve gender outcomes.\n- Capacity development and external engagement:\n  - Directors underscored the importance of capacity development assistance and steps to reengage with international partners to support the reform agenda.\n  - Further and prompt engagement with the Fund, including through the Food Shock Window, could be beneficial.\n- Climate resilience:\n  - Building resilience to climate change will be important."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Selected economic and financial indicators, 2021–26 (annual percentage change / percent of GDP where indicated)",
      "content": "- Real GDP (annual percent change): 3.1 (2021), 3.7 (2022), 5.0 (2023), 5.1 (2024), 5.3 (2025)\n- Consumer price inflation (average): 3.8 (2021), 10.0 (2022), 2.8 (2023), 2.0 (2024)\n\n- Central government finance and public debt (percent of GDP):\n  - Revenue: 20.8 (2021), 19.4 (2022), 19.9 (2023), 20.0 (2024), 20.2 (2025), 20.4 (2026)\n  - Total expenditure and net lending: 26.3 (2021), 24.6 (2022), 25.3 (2023), 25.2 (2024), 25.4 (2025), 25.0 (2026)\n  - Overall balance (accrual basis): -4.8 (2021), -4.3 (2022), -3.6 (2023), -3.0 (2024)\n\n- Notes on public debt figures:\n  - Public debt refers to general government debt.\n  - Domestic public debt includes BCEAO statutory advances, government bonds, treasury bills, and other debts. From 2021 onwards includes SDR allocation in the amount of 1.3 percent of GDP on-lent from the BCEAO.\n\nIMF Executive Board press release: Press Release No. 23/182, May 26, 2023.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- Mali and the IMF\n- IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet\n- Gold in the IMF -- A Factsheet\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2023/05/26/pr23182-mali-article-iv-consultation"
    }
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    "Published: May 26, 2023",
    "Real GDP growth increased from 3.1 percent in 2021 to 3.7 percent in 2022.",
    "Growth is projected to rebound to over 5 percent in 2023 and 2024, assuming strong agricultural and gold output.",
    "Headline inflation reached 10 percent in 2022; projected to come down to 5 percent in 2023 and to 2 percent in 2024 as global energy and food prices decline.",
    "Mali’s economy remained resilient in 2022 despite elevated security and socio-political challenges, regional sanctions in the first half of 2022, and a high incidence of food insecurity.",
    "Worsening security situation.",
    "Potential election delays.",
    "Volatile international commodity prices.",
    "Tighter global financial conditions.",
    "Climate risks.",
    "Tightening of financing conditions due to lack of external budget support and higher global interest rates; regional market tightening poses additional financing risks.",
    "Fiscal deficit was just under 5 percent of GDP in 2022, reflecting a rapid increase in security spending, public wages, and the interest bill.",
    "Lack of external budget support—halted after two coups d’état in 2020 and 2021 and unlikely to resume until after elections are held in 2024—contributes to tightening financing conditions.",
    "Public debt trajectory (percent of GDP):",
    "Debt service: 5.5 (2021), 6.5 (2022), 9.9 (2023), 10.2 (2024), 12.4 (2025), 13.2 (2026)",
    "Current account balance: -7.5 (2021), -6.9 (2022), -6.1 (2023), -5.5 (2024), -3.4 (2025), -3.7 (2026) (percent of GDP)",
    "Current account deficit improved slightly in 2022 to 6.9 percent of GDP from 7.5 percent in 2021, on account of higher gold exports and lower capital goods imports.",
    "In the medium term, the current account deficit is projected to fall to below 4 percent due to strong gold and agricultural exports.",
    "Terms of trade (deterioration -): -9.4 (2021), -22.0 (2022), 23.4 (2023), 1.5 (2024), 3.4 (2025), -0.4 (2026)",
    "Credit to the government: 32.3 (2021), 77.7 (2022), 44.9 (2023), 21.3 (2024), 8.1 (2025), 3.3 (2026)",
    "Credit to the economy: 15.9 (2021), 14.9 (2022), 8.0 (2023), 7.4 (2024), 7.2 (2025)",
    "Broad money (M2): 17.0 (2021), 11.7 (2022)",
    "Executive Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal, noting resilience in 2022 but significant remaining challenges including a marked rise in public debt amid tighter financing conditions and downside risks to the outlook.",
    "Fiscal consolidation:",
    "Social protection:",
    "Governance, transparency, and institutions:",
    "Capacity development and external engagement:",
    "Climate resilience:",
    "Real GDP (annual percent change): 3.1 (2021), 3.7 (2022), 5.0 (2023), 5.1 (2024), 5.3 (2025)",
    "Consumer price inflation (average): 3.8 (2021), 10.0 (2022), 2.8 (2023), 2.0 (2024)",
    "Central government finance and public debt (percent of GDP):",
    "Notes on public debt figures:",
    "[Mali and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/MLI/index.htm)",
    "[IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)",
    "[Gold in the IMF -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/sheets/2022/gold-in-the-imf)",
    "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
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