{
  "title": "IMF Staff Concludes Visit to Antigua and Barbuda",
  "publication": "IMF News, June 23, 2023",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2023/06/23/pr23237-imf-staff-concludes-visit-to-antigua-and-barbuda",
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  "summary": "Economic activity is on a solid recovery path after a sharp decline during the pandemic. Growth is projected at 7.8 and 5.5 percent for 2022 and 2023, respectively, on the back of robust tourism and construction activity.",
  "publishDate": "2023-06-23",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Mission overview",
      "content": "- Visit dates: June 19–23, 2023.\n- Mission led by: Ms. Emine Boz.\n- Press Release No.: 23/237.\n- Statement at conclusion issued by: Ms. Emine Boz.\n- Note: End-of-Mission press releases convey preliminary findings; views expressed are those of IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. This mission will not result in a Board discussion."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Economic activity and outlook",
      "content": "- Growth projections: 7.8 and 5.5 percent for 2022 and 2023, respectively.\n- Tourism: Number of stayover tourists reached 98 percent of pre-pandemic levels during the first four months of 2023, led by arrivals from the U.S. and U.K.\n- Real GDP: Expected to recover to its pre-pandemic level in 2023.\n- Inflation: Peaked at 9.2 percent at end-2022; receded to 4.6 percent (year-on-year) by March 2023, partly driven by a decline in fuel prices."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Fiscal situation and public finances",
      "content": "- Primary balance: Preliminary budget outturn suggests a primary deficit of 1.4 percent of GDP for 2022.\n- Fiscal context: The 2022 deficit was smaller than that in 2021, but higher than projected by the authorities and IMF staff in the 2022 Article IV Staff Report.\n- Public debt: Public debt-to-GDP is estimated to have declined to 87 percent by end-2022 from 97 percent at end-2021 on the back of strong nominal GDP growth.\n- Key fiscal recommendations:\n  - Continue efforts to streamline tax exemptions.\n  - Strengthen tax compliance and administration.\n  - Improve public spending efficiency.\n  - Enhance coordination across social transfer programs and digitize information, accompanied by efforts to broaden coverage and improve targeting and monitoring of the social safety net.\n  - Work with domestic and external creditors to clear existing arrears and avoid accumulation of new arrears.\n- Policy window: Strong economic recovery combined with global food and fuel prices down from their highs last year provides a window of opportunity to put public finances on a sustainable footing while protecting the vulnerable."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Financial sector",
      "content": "- Stability and liquidity: Financial sector is stable and liquid, with non-performing loans declining gradually.\n- Credit: Bank credit to the private sector remains subdued relative to the growth in economic activity.\n- Non-performing loans: Nonperforming loan ratios of commercial banks and credit unions modestly exceed the prudential level of 5 percent.\n- Loan loss provisioning: Authorities should maintain strong loan loss provisioning, which is currently above the ECCB’s prudential level of 60 percent for both banks and credit unions.\n- Regulatory recommendations:\n  - Monitor credit growth of credit unions.\n  - Further strengthen supervision and regulation of the credit union sector."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Resilience, energy, and labor market",
      "content": "- Natural disasters: Country faces increasing challenges from natural disasters; authorities should continue resilience building efforts and create sufficient buffers against natural disasters.\n- Energy transition: Transition to renewable energy is essential for reducing reliance on fossil fuels and lowering energy costs and should be accelerated.\n- Labor market and skills: Labor market recovery may not raise incomes of all, especially vulnerable workers; efforts to upskill workers are critical for further reducing unemployment and facilitating mobility across sectors."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Data and statistical needs",
      "content": "- Data gaps to address:\n  - Calculation of the rental component of the consumer price index.\n  - Improvements in the compilation of national accounts data.\n- Rationale: Improvements are essential to facilitate evidence-based policy making."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Closing",
      "content": "- The mission team thanks the authorities and other counterparts for their collaboration, support, and valuable discussions.\n\nSource: IMF press release, June 23, 2023.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- Antigua and Barbuda and the IMF\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2023/06/23/pr23237-imf-staff-concludes-visit-to-antigua-and-barbuda"
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    "Published: June 23, 2023",
    "Visit dates: June 19–23, 2023.",
    "Mission led by: Ms. Emine Boz.",
    "Press Release No.: 23/237.",
    "Statement at conclusion issued by: Ms. Emine Boz.",
    "Note: End-of-Mission press releases convey preliminary findings; views expressed are those of IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. This mission will not result in a Board discussion.",
    "Growth projections: 7.8 and 5.5 percent for 2022 and 2023, respectively.",
    "Tourism: Number of stayover tourists reached 98 percent of pre-pandemic levels during the first four months of 2023, led by arrivals from the U.S. and U.K.",
    "Real GDP: Expected to recover to its pre-pandemic level in 2023.",
    "Inflation: Peaked at 9.2 percent at end-2022; receded to 4.6 percent (year-on-year) by March 2023, partly driven by a decline in fuel prices.",
    "Primary balance: Preliminary budget outturn suggests a primary deficit of 1.4 percent of GDP for 2022.",
    "Fiscal context: The 2022 deficit was smaller than that in 2021, but higher than projected by the authorities and IMF staff in the 2022 Article IV Staff Report.",
    "Public debt: Public debt-to-GDP is estimated to have declined to 87 percent by end-2022 from 97 percent at end-2021 on the back of strong nominal GDP growth.",
    "Key fiscal recommendations:",
    "Policy window: Strong economic recovery combined with global food and fuel prices down from their highs last year provides a window of opportunity to put public finances on a sustainable footing while protecting the vulnerable.",
    "Stability and liquidity: Financial sector is stable and liquid, with non-performing loans declining gradually.",
    "Credit: Bank credit to the private sector remains subdued relative to the growth in economic activity.",
    "Non-performing loans: Nonperforming loan ratios of commercial banks and credit unions modestly exceed the prudential level of 5 percent.",
    "Loan loss provisioning: Authorities should maintain strong loan loss provisioning, which is currently above the ECCB’s prudential level of 60 percent for both banks and credit unions.",
    "Regulatory recommendations:",
    "Natural disasters: Country faces increasing challenges from natural disasters; authorities should continue resilience building efforts and create sufficient buffers against natural disasters.",
    "Energy transition: Transition to renewable energy is essential for reducing reliance on fossil fuels and lowering energy costs and should be accelerated.",
    "Labor market and skills: Labor market recovery may not raise incomes of all, especially vulnerable workers; efforts to upskill workers are critical for further reducing unemployment and facilitating mobility across sectors.",
    "Data gaps to address:",
    "Rationale: Improvements are essential to facilitate evidence-based policy making.",
    "The mission team thanks the authorities and other counterparts for their collaboration, support, and valuable discussions.",
    "[Antigua and Barbuda and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/ATG/index.htm)",
    "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
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