{
  "title": "IMF Executive Board Concludes 2023 Article IV Consultation with Dominica",
  "publication": "IMF News, July 5, 2023",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2023/07/05/pr23257-imf-concludes-2023-article-iv-consultation-with-dominica",
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  "overlayPath": "/en/news/articles/2023/07/05/pr23257-imf-concludes-2023-article-iv-consultation-with-dominica/index.md",
  "summary": "The Dominican economy is recovering strongly following the pandemic. Real GDP growth is estimated to have reached 6.9 percent in 2021 and 5.7 percent in 2022, driven by construction of climate-resilient infrastructure, a partial rebound in tourism, and a substantial rise in agricultural output.",
  "publishDate": "2023-07-05",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Economic recovery and outlook",
      "content": "- Real GDP growth is estimated to have reached 6.9 percent in 2021 and 5.7 percent in 2022, driven by construction of climate-resilient infrastructure, a partial rebound in tourism, and a substantial rise in agricultural output.\n- High global commodity prices and shipping costs pushed inflation up to an estimated 7.5 percent in 2022, despite mitigating fuel price policies.\n- The current account deficit remained elevated, at 26 percent of GDP, due to unfavorable terms of trade, large imports of investment goods, and incomplete recovery in tourism receipts.\n- The outlook is positive, predicated on a continued expansion in tourism and implementation of the country’s economic modernization and resilience building agenda.\n- Transition to local geothermal energy production and construction of a new airport, planned for the coming years, are expected to sustain activity, reduce fossil fuel dependence, bolster resilience to external shocks, and improve international connectivity.\n- The current account deficit is expected to narrow as tourism exports expand, commodity prices fall, and imports of fuel and investment goods soften, in line with fiscal consolidation.\n- Public debt is set to decline gradually in coming years, supported by efforts to reduce current spending and strengthen tax collection.\n- Downside risks include global economic uncertainty, climate change, and volatility of Citizenship-by-Investment (CBI) revenue."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Fiscal position and risks",
      "content": "- Fiscal space remains tight. High Citizenship-by-Investment (CBI) revenue, nearing a record 30 percent of GDP in recent years, has supported public investment and crisis response measures.\n- The primary fiscal deficit expanded to 6.2 percent in FY21–22, with public debt reaching at 106 percent of GDP.\n- To ensure convergence to the 60 percent public debt target by 2035, fiscal consolidation consistent with the national fiscal rule—raising the primary balance to 2 percent of GDP by 2026—is recommended.\n- The plan should be underpinned by a sizeable improvement of non-CBI fiscal balances while protecting investment and other priority programs.\n- Allocating a higher share of CBI revenue, including all unexpected windfalls, to disaster insurance and debt amortization is recommended to bolster financial resilience and strengthen debt sustainability."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Financial sector stability and constraints",
      "content": "- The financial sector remains stable. Tighter global financing conditions have not impacted bank deposit and lending rates given abundant liquidity and limited exposure to foreign capital markets.\n- Banks have strengthened provisions in line with ECCB requirements and remain well capitalized. Recapitalization of credit unions is progressing.\n- Credit to the private sector has underperformed relative to GDP growth, while bank exposure to the public sector has grown since the pandemic.\n- Nonperforming loans (NPLs) remain elevated and the national insolvency law modernization is essential to facilitate resolution of NPLs.\n- Upcoming ECCU regional credit bureau and the Eastern Caribbean partial credit guarantee scheme can facilitate credit access by streamlining lending processes and addressing collateral constraints for small businesses."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy recommendations — fiscal and tax measures",
      "content": "- Mobilize tax revenue by streamlining tax incentives, reviewing PIT allowances, and strengthening tax administration and compliance risk management.\n- As international fuel prices moderate, reverse the reduction of VAT on electricity and revise motor vehicle licenses up to compensate losses from the foregone highway levy.\n- Reduce the wage bill through civil service reform and streamline pension spending by reforms aimed at increasing the minimum retirement age.\n- Strengthen the financial position of the publicly-owned water and sewage public company through higher tariffs that better reflect cost recovery.\n- Continue to cut inefficient spending and prioritize the medium-term public investment plan toward projects with greatest productivity, such as the geothermal plant and new airport."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Social protection and inclusion",
      "content": "- Social protection systems need strengthening. Conventional income-based targeting is hampered by widespread informality and capacity constraints.\n- Consider pursuing proxy-targeting and tailoring social assistance to vulnerable households in a more systematized way to streamline untargeted programs and deploy exceptional support swiftly and cost-effectively during large shocks.\n- Completing the ongoing population census, which would form the basis for a comprehensive social registry, is paramount."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Financial supervision and resilience",
      "content": "- Modernize supervisory frameworks: bolster resources and capacity of the national supervisor, consider statutory independence from the Ministry of Finance, and modernize supervisory regulations to support risk-based supervision.\n- Account for climate-related risks within supervisory frameworks to foster financial resilience to climate change.\n- Prioritize recapitalization of systemic credit unions."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Structural reforms and resilience-building",
      "content": "- Continue efforts to modernize the economy and strengthen economic resilience via diversification and inclusiveness.\n- Prioritize transition to geothermal energy to reduce carbon emissions, lessen external vulnerabilities, and increase competitiveness through lower energy costs.\n- Timely completion of the new international airport will boost connectivity with large markets and enhance regional connectivity.\n- Support the agricultural sector to broaden the export base and explore synergies with the tourism sector.\n- Expand digitalization and professional training to support inclusive development and productivity gains."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Institutional and statistical reforms",
      "content": "- Continue progress in strengthening AML/CFT legislation and procedures, in line with the recommendations of the upcoming CFAFT mutual evaluation report, to protect the integrity of CBI programs and the stability of CBRs.\n- Publish timely high-quality statistics to inform policy decisions and monitor compliance with fiscal rules.\n- Implement the national fiscal rule by enhancing public financial management processes, including medium-term budgeting, fiscal reporting, treasury operations, and public investment management."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key statistics and projections (selected, as reported)",
      "content": "- Real GDP growth: 3.5 (2018); 5.5 (2019); -16.6 (2020); 6.9 (2021); 5.7 (2022); 4.7 (2023); 4.6 (2024); 4.2 (2025); 2.9 (2026); 2.7 (2027); (2028 not reported).\n- Nominal GDP growth: 6.4 (2018); 10.2 (2019); -17.5 (2020); 10.1 (2021); 13.6 (2022); 11.1 (2023); 7.1 (2024); 6.3 (2025); 4.9 (2026).\n- Consumer prices, period average: 1.0 (2018); 1.5 (2019); -0.7 (2020); 1.6 (2021); 7.5 (2022); 6.2 (2023); 2.4 (2024); 2.0 (2025).\n- Central government revenue: 44.7 (2018); 39.6 (2019); 58.9 (2020); 56.9 (2021); 42.7 (2022); 43.5 (2023); 41.8 (2024); 40.7 (2025); 40.5 (2026); 40.4 (2027); 40.3 (2028).\n- Taxes: 27.7 (2018); 24.1 (2019); 23.3 (2020); 21.2 (2021); 20.1 (2022); 21.9 (2023); 22.2 (2024); 22.1 (2025).\n- Non-tax revenue: 16.2 (2018); 13.5 (2019); 33.2 (2020); 30.3 (2021); 20.2 (2022); 19.2 (2023); 17.2 (2024).\n- Expenditure: 62.9 (2018); 48.1 (2019); 66.6 (2020); 65.6 (2021); 46.7 (2022); 47.8 (2023); 45.0 (2024); 43.6 (2025); 42.9 (2026); 42.3 (2027); 42.1 (2028).\n- Current primary expenditure: 36.3 (2018); 35.9 (2019); 36.5 (2020); 36.9 (2021); 30.4 (2022); 30.0 (2023); 29.1 (2024); 28.7 (2025).\n- Interest payments: 2.5 (2018); 2.1 (2019); 3.6 (2020); 3.3 (2021); 3.2 (2022); 3.1 (2023).\n- Capital expenditure: 24.7 (2018); 9.7 (2019); 28.0 (2020); 26.2 (2021); 12.8 (2022); 11.8 (2023); 11.3 (2024); 10.9 (2025); 10.4 (2026).\n- Primary balance: -16.2 (2018); -6.0 (2019); -5.5 (2020); -6.2 (2021); -0.5 (2022); -0.1 (2023); 0.7 (2024); 1.3 (2025); 1.2 (2026).\n- Primary balance, excluding CBI: -29.4 (2018); -18.1 (2019); -36.9 (2020); -34.9 (2021); -18.5 (2022); -17.1 (2023); -14.2 (2024); -13.3 (2025); -13.1 (2026); -12.8 (2027).\n- Overall balance: -8.5 (2018); -7.7 (2019); -8.7 (2020); -4.0 (2021); -4.2 (2022); -3.2 (2023); -2.9 (2024); -2.4 (2025); -1.9 (2026); -1.1 (2027).\n- Central government debt (incl. guaranteed): 85.6 (2018); 97.7 (2019); 112.5 (2020); 106.3 (2021); 97.6 (2022); 93.5 (2023); 91.0 (2024); 90.3 (2025); 90.1 (2026); 89.5 (2027); 89.0 (2028).\n- External debt (gross): 102.1 (2018); 84.9 (2019); 102.6 (2020); 82.9 (2021); 77.9 (2022); 74.3 (2023); 72.3 (2024); 72.1 (2025); 72.7 (2026); 73.9 (2027); 75.0 (2028).\n- Broad money (M2) annual percent change: 1.4 (2018); -6.3 (2019); -9.9 (2020); 1.8 (2021); 6.5 (2022).\n- Real credit to the private sector (annual percent change): -5.3 (2018); -6.1 (2019); 0.4 (2020); 0.0 (2021); 0.8 (2022).\n- Current account balance (percent of GDP): -43.7 (2018); -35.6 (2019); -35.4 (2020); -27.6 (2021); -26.2 (2022); -25.2 (2023); -17.7 (2024); -15.9 (2025); -14.3 (2026); -11.1 (2027).\n- Exports of goods and services (percent of GDP): 28.2 (2018); 34.5 (2019); 18.9 (2020); 25.4 (2021); 31.2 (2022); 33.7 (2023); 33.9 (2024); 34.2 (2025); 35.3 (2026).\n- Imports of goods and services (percent of GDP): 75.7 (2018); 69.7 (2019); 55.4 (2020); 56.8 (2021); 58.6 (2022); 54.8 (2023); 55.3 (2024); 54.0 (2025); 52.8 (2026); 52.3 (2027).\n- Capital and financial account (percent of GDP): 38.7 (2018); 27.5 (2019); 26.3 (2020); 25.3 (2021); 17.8 (2022); 16.1 (2023); 14.4 (2024); 12.9 (2025); 11.2 (2026).\n- FDI (percent of GDP): 14.1 (2018); 10.3 (2019); 4.3 (2020); 6.1 (2021); 6.6 (2022); 4.8 (2023); 4.5 (2024).\n- Capital grants (percent of GDP): 26.5 (2018); 9.8 (2019); 24.4 (2020); 14.6 (2021); 11.6 (2022); 9.9 (2023); 7.7 (2024).\n- External gross debt composition note: comprises public sector external debt, foreign liabilities of commercial banks, and other private debt (calendar year basis).\n- Memorandum: Nominal GDP (EC$ millions): 1,498 (2018); 1,651 (2019); 1,361 (2020); 1,499 (2021); 1,703 (2022); 1,893 (2023); 2,027 (2024); 2,155 (2025); 2,261 (2026); 2,368 (2027); 2,479 (2028).\n- Net imputed international reserves end-year (millions of U.S. dollars): 189.2 (2018); 166.2 (2019); 165.6 (2020); 165.2 (2021); 166.0 (2022); 172.4 (2023); 181.0 (2024); 191.7 (2025); 203.1 (2026); 214.8 (2027); 227.3 (2028).\n- Months of imports of goods and services: 5.6 (2018); 5.3 (2019); 5.2 (2020).\n- Holdings of SDRs (millions of SDRs): 9.6 (year not specified).\n\nIMF Executive Board conclusion and staff appraisal endorsed on a lapse-of-time basis; Press Release No. 23/257.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- Dominica and the IMF\n- IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2023/07/05/pr23257-imf-concludes-2023-article-iv-consultation-with-dominica"
    }
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    "Published: July 5, 2023",
    "Real GDP growth is estimated to have reached 6.9 percent in 2021 and 5.7 percent in 2022, driven by construction of climate-resilient infrastructure, a partial rebound in tourism, and a substantial rise in agricultural output.",
    "High global commodity prices and shipping costs pushed inflation up to an estimated 7.5 percent in 2022, despite mitigating fuel price policies.",
    "The current account deficit remained elevated, at 26 percent of GDP, due to unfavorable terms of trade, large imports of investment goods, and incomplete recovery in tourism receipts.",
    "The outlook is positive, predicated on a continued expansion in tourism and implementation of the country’s economic modernization and resilience building agenda.",
    "Transition to local geothermal energy production and construction of a new airport, planned for the coming years, are expected to sustain activity, reduce fossil fuel dependence, bolster resilience to external shocks, and improve international connectivity.",
    "The current account deficit is expected to narrow as tourism exports expand, commodity prices fall, and imports of fuel and investment goods soften, in line with fiscal consolidation.",
    "Public debt is set to decline gradually in coming years, supported by efforts to reduce current spending and strengthen tax collection.",
    "Downside risks include global economic uncertainty, climate change, and volatility of Citizenship-by-Investment (CBI) revenue.",
    "Fiscal space remains tight. High Citizenship-by-Investment (CBI) revenue, nearing a record 30 percent of GDP in recent years, has supported public investment and crisis response measures.",
    "The primary fiscal deficit expanded to 6.2 percent in FY21–22, with public debt reaching at 106 percent of GDP.",
    "To ensure convergence to the 60 percent public debt target by 2035, fiscal consolidation consistent with the national fiscal rule—raising the primary balance to 2 percent of GDP by 2026—is recommended.",
    "The plan should be underpinned by a sizeable improvement of non-CBI fiscal balances while protecting investment and other priority programs.",
    "Allocating a higher share of CBI revenue, including all unexpected windfalls, to disaster insurance and debt amortization is recommended to bolster financial resilience and strengthen debt sustainability.",
    "The financial sector remains stable. Tighter global financing conditions have not impacted bank deposit and lending rates given abundant liquidity and limited exposure to foreign capital markets.",
    "Banks have strengthened provisions in line with ECCB requirements and remain well capitalized. Recapitalization of credit unions is progressing.",
    "Credit to the private sector has underperformed relative to GDP growth, while bank exposure to the public sector has grown since the pandemic.",
    "Nonperforming loans (NPLs) remain elevated and the national insolvency law modernization is essential to facilitate resolution of NPLs.",
    "Upcoming ECCU regional credit bureau and the Eastern Caribbean partial credit guarantee scheme can facilitate credit access by streamlining lending processes and addressing collateral constraints for small businesses.",
    "Mobilize tax revenue by streamlining tax incentives, reviewing PIT allowances, and strengthening tax administration and compliance risk management.",
    "As international fuel prices moderate, reverse the reduction of VAT on electricity and revise motor vehicle licenses up to compensate losses from the foregone highway levy.",
    "Reduce the wage bill through civil service reform and streamline pension spending by reforms aimed at increasing the minimum retirement age.",
    "Strengthen the financial position of the publicly-owned water and sewage public company through higher tariffs that better reflect cost recovery.",
    "Continue to cut inefficient spending and prioritize the medium-term public investment plan toward projects with greatest productivity, such as the geothermal plant and new airport.",
    "Social protection systems need strengthening. Conventional income-based targeting is hampered by widespread informality and capacity constraints.",
    "Consider pursuing proxy-targeting and tailoring social assistance to vulnerable households in a more systematized way to streamline untargeted programs and deploy exceptional support swiftly and cost-effectively during large shocks.",
    "Completing the ongoing population census, which would form the basis for a comprehensive social registry, is paramount.",
    "Modernize supervisory frameworks: bolster resources and capacity of the national supervisor, consider statutory independence from the Ministry of Finance, and modernize supervisory regulations to support risk-based supervision.",
    "Account for climate-related risks within supervisory frameworks to foster financial resilience to climate change.",
    "Prioritize recapitalization of systemic credit unions.",
    "Continue efforts to modernize the economy and strengthen economic resilience via diversification and inclusiveness.",
    "Prioritize transition to geothermal energy to reduce carbon emissions, lessen external vulnerabilities, and increase competitiveness through lower energy costs.",
    "Timely completion of the new international airport will boost connectivity with large markets and enhance regional connectivity.",
    "Support the agricultural sector to broaden the export base and explore synergies with the tourism sector.",
    "Expand digitalization and professional training to support inclusive development and productivity gains.",
    "Continue progress in strengthening AML/CFT legislation and procedures, in line with the recommendations of the upcoming CFAFT mutual evaluation report, to protect the integrity of CBI programs and the stability of CBRs.",
    "Publish timely high-quality statistics to inform policy decisions and monitor compliance with fiscal rules.",
    "Implement the national fiscal rule by enhancing public financial management processes, including medium-term budgeting, fiscal reporting, treasury operations, and public investment management.",
    "Real GDP growth: 3.5 (2018); 5.5 (2019); -16.6 (2020); 6.9 (2021); 5.7 (2022); 4.7 (2023); 4.6 (2024); 4.2 (2025); 2.9 (2026); 2.7 (2027); (2028 not reported).",
    "Nominal GDP growth: 6.4 (2018); 10.2 (2019); -17.5 (2020); 10.1 (2021); 13.6 (2022); 11.1 (2023); 7.1 (2024); 6.3 (2025); 4.9 (2026).",
    "Consumer prices, period average: 1.0 (2018); 1.5 (2019); -0.7 (2020); 1.6 (2021); 7.5 (2022); 6.2 (2023); 2.4 (2024); 2.0 (2025).",
    "Central government revenue: 44.7 (2018); 39.6 (2019); 58.9 (2020); 56.9 (2021); 42.7 (2022); 43.5 (2023); 41.8 (2024); 40.7 (2025); 40.5 (2026); 40.4 (2027); 40.3 (2028).",
    "Taxes: 27.7 (2018); 24.1 (2019); 23.3 (2020); 21.2 (2021); 20.1 (2022); 21.9 (2023); 22.2 (2024); 22.1 (2025).",
    "Non-tax revenue: 16.2 (2018); 13.5 (2019); 33.2 (2020); 30.3 (2021); 20.2 (2022); 19.2 (2023); 17.2 (2024).",
    "Expenditure: 62.9 (2018); 48.1 (2019); 66.6 (2020); 65.6 (2021); 46.7 (2022); 47.8 (2023); 45.0 (2024); 43.6 (2025); 42.9 (2026); 42.3 (2027); 42.1 (2028).",
    "Current primary expenditure: 36.3 (2018); 35.9 (2019); 36.5 (2020); 36.9 (2021); 30.4 (2022); 30.0 (2023); 29.1 (2024); 28.7 (2025).",
    "Interest payments: 2.5 (2018); 2.1 (2019); 3.6 (2020); 3.3 (2021); 3.2 (2022); 3.1 (2023).",
    "Capital expenditure: 24.7 (2018); 9.7 (2019); 28.0 (2020); 26.2 (2021); 12.8 (2022); 11.8 (2023); 11.3 (2024); 10.9 (2025); 10.4 (2026).",
    "Primary balance: -16.2 (2018); -6.0 (2019); -5.5 (2020); -6.2 (2021); -0.5 (2022); -0.1 (2023); 0.7 (2024); 1.3 (2025); 1.2 (2026).",
    "Primary balance, excluding CBI: -29.4 (2018); -18.1 (2019); -36.9 (2020); -34.9 (2021); -18.5 (2022); -17.1 (2023); -14.2 (2024); -13.3 (2025); -13.1 (2026); -12.8 (2027).",
    "Overall balance: -8.5 (2018); -7.7 (2019); -8.7 (2020); -4.0 (2021); -4.2 (2022); -3.2 (2023); -2.9 (2024); -2.4 (2025); -1.9 (2026); -1.1 (2027).",
    "Central government debt (incl. guaranteed): 85.6 (2018); 97.7 (2019); 112.5 (2020); 106.3 (2021); 97.6 (2022); 93.5 (2023); 91.0 (2024); 90.3 (2025); 90.1 (2026); 89.5 (2027); 89.0 (2028).",
    "External debt (gross): 102.1 (2018); 84.9 (2019); 102.6 (2020); 82.9 (2021); 77.9 (2022); 74.3 (2023); 72.3 (2024); 72.1 (2025); 72.7 (2026); 73.9 (2027); 75.0 (2028).",
    "Broad money (M2) annual percent change: 1.4 (2018); -6.3 (2019); -9.9 (2020); 1.8 (2021); 6.5 (2022).",
    "Real credit to the private sector (annual percent change): -5.3 (2018); -6.1 (2019); 0.4 (2020); 0.0 (2021); 0.8 (2022).",
    "Current account balance (percent of GDP): -43.7 (2018); -35.6 (2019); -35.4 (2020); -27.6 (2021); -26.2 (2022); -25.2 (2023); -17.7 (2024); -15.9 (2025); -14.3 (2026); -11.1 (2027).",
    "Exports of goods and services (percent of GDP): 28.2 (2018); 34.5 (2019); 18.9 (2020); 25.4 (2021); 31.2 (2022); 33.7 (2023); 33.9 (2024); 34.2 (2025); 35.3 (2026).",
    "Imports of goods and services (percent of GDP): 75.7 (2018); 69.7 (2019); 55.4 (2020); 56.8 (2021); 58.6 (2022); 54.8 (2023); 55.3 (2024); 54.0 (2025); 52.8 (2026); 52.3 (2027).",
    "Capital and financial account (percent of GDP): 38.7 (2018); 27.5 (2019); 26.3 (2020); 25.3 (2021); 17.8 (2022); 16.1 (2023); 14.4 (2024); 12.9 (2025); 11.2 (2026).",
    "FDI (percent of GDP): 14.1 (2018); 10.3 (2019); 4.3 (2020); 6.1 (2021); 6.6 (2022); 4.8 (2023); 4.5 (2024).",
    "Capital grants (percent of GDP): 26.5 (2018); 9.8 (2019); 24.4 (2020); 14.6 (2021); 11.6 (2022); 9.9 (2023); 7.7 (2024).",
    "External gross debt composition note: comprises public sector external debt, foreign liabilities of commercial banks, and other private debt (calendar year basis).",
    "Memorandum: Nominal GDP (EC$ millions): 1,498 (2018); 1,651 (2019); 1,361 (2020); 1,499 (2021); 1,703 (2022); 1,893 (2023); 2,027 (2024); 2,155 (2025); 2,261 (2026); 2,368 (2027); 2,479 (2028).",
    "Net imputed international reserves end-year (millions of U.S. dollars): 189.2 (2018); 166.2 (2019); 165.6 (2020); 165.2 (2021); 166.0 (2022); 172.4 (2023); 181.0 (2024); 191.7 (2025); 203.1 (2026); 214.8 (2027); 227.3 (2028).",
    "Months of imports of goods and services: 5.6 (2018); 5.3 (2019); 5.2 (2020).",
    "Holdings of SDRs (millions of SDRs): 9.6 (year not specified).",
    "[Dominica and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/DMA/index.htm)",
    "[IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)",
    "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
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