{
  "title": "IMF Executive Board Concludes 2023 Article IV Consultation with Brunei Darussalam",
  "publication": "IMF News, October 6, 2023",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2023/10/04/pr23336-brunei-imf-executive-board-concludes-2023-article-iv-consultation-with-brunei-darussalam",
  "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2023/10/04/pr23336-brunei-imf-executive-board-concludes-2023-article-iv-consultation-with-brunei-darussalam",
  "overlayPath": "/en/news/articles/2023/10/04/pr23336-brunei-imf-executive-board-concludes-2023-article-iv-consultation-with-brunei-darussalam/index.md",
  "summary": "Brunei has begun to recover from the pandemic, with COVID-19 restrictions lifted and borders reopened in 2022. However, the recovery has been hindered by reduced Oil and Gas (O&G) sector production, despite rising commodity prices.",
  "publishDate": "2023-10-06",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Recent economic developments",
      "content": "- Brunei has begun to recover from the pandemic, with COVID-19 restrictions lifted and borders reopened in 2022.\n- Recovery hindered by reduced Oil and Gas (O&G) sector production despite rising commodity prices.\n- Real GDP contracted in 2022 due to a decline in O&G production, partly offset by growth in downstream O&G activities and non-O&G sectors.\n- Labor market improved, although gains were primarily in lower-paid jobs.\n- Inflation rose in 2022 to 3.7 percent but has since moderated; the stable exchange rate helped mitigate the impact of imported inflation.\n- Fiscal and current account positions improved in 2022, 1.6 and 19.6 percent, respectively, driven by higher O&G prices and an expansion of exports from the downstream sector.\n- Banking sector remains stable, liquid, and well capitalized with declining non-performing loans; domestic lending showed signs of recovery, particularly in the corporate sector."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Outlook and risks",
      "content": "- Growth is forecasted to contract by about 1 percent in 2023 due to reduced O&G production—largely driven by the deferment of infrastructure maintenance in the O&G sector—while non-O&G sector recovery will continue to contribute positively.\n- Inflation is predicted to moderate to 1.7 percent, with the easing of global supply chain bottlenecks and commodity price normalization.\n- Fiscal and external positions are projected to weaken to deficit of around -9 percent of GDP and a surplus of 10.6 percent of GDP respectively in 2023, and through the medium-term.\n- Key challenges: gradually narrowing fiscal space, need to shield the economy against O&G sector volatility, global decarbonization pressures, and ensuring intergenerational equity.\n- Risks include protracted O&G maintenance activities and a less favorable external environment that could impede the recovery; higher O&G prices could provide an upside."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Executive Board assessment and policy recommendations",
      "content": "- Directors noted that a contraction in the oil and gas sector weakened the recovery and that the outlook remains subject to substantial downside risks.\n- Emphasized need for prudent policies and structural reforms to support the recovery, maintain macroeconomic stability, and promote diversification and climate resilience.\n- Recommended priorities and policy measures:\n  - Pursue fiscal prudence amid uncertainties in oil and gas production and prices and long-term decarbonization pressures.\n  - Focus on growth-friendly fiscal consolidation that protects the vulnerable and raises public investment.\n  - Mobilize non-oil and gas revenues.\n  - Implement targeted subsidies.\n  - Rationalize the wage bill.\n  - Improve fiscal transparency and risk analysis.\n  - Establish a strong and credible medium-term fiscal framework.\n  - Further align policy rates with the Monetary Authority of Singapore and improve liquidity management within the enduring currency board arrangement.\n  - Maintain vigilance against tail risks in the financial sector and enhance financial market development, prudential frameworks, and AML/CFT enforcement.\n  - Continue critical policy reforms supporting economic diversification and climate transition, including human capital development, digitalization, enhancing public investments and PPPs, regional integration, and data quality.\n  - Advance the transition plan for the Net Zero Target by 2050 and consider implications of carbon pricing for mitigation and revenue diversification.\n- Continued capacity development supported by the Fund was deemed important."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Selected economic and financial indicators (highlights)",
      "content": "- Area: 5,765 sq. kilometers\n- Population (2021): 440,715\n- Nominal GDP per capita (2021): US$31,449.1\n- Main export destinations ( Nov 2022): Australia (21.2 percent), Japan (15.8), China (15.0), and Singapore (13.4)\n- Unemployment rate (2021): 4.9%\n- Labor force participation rate (2020): total 63.8%; male 71.7%; female 54.9%\n\n- Nominal GDP (millions of Brunei dollars): 2022: 23,003; 2023 (Est.): 20,321; 2024 (Proj.): 21,483; 2025 (Proj.): 22,220; 2026 (Proj.): 22,952; 2027 (Proj.): 23,900; 2028 (Proj.): 24,883\n- Nominal non-oil and gas GDP (millions of Brunei dollars): 2022: 11,043; 2023 (Est.): 11,958; 2024 (Proj.): 12,738; 2025 (Proj.): 13,545; 2026 (Proj.): 14,683; 2027 (Proj.): 15,829; 2028 (Proj.): 17,061\n\n- Real GDP (percentage change): 2018: 0.1; 2019: 3.9; 2020: 1.1; 2021: -1.6; 2022: -0.8; 2023 (Est.): 3.5; 2024 (Proj.): 2.8; 2025 (Proj.): 3.0; 2026 (Proj.): 3.1; 2027 (Proj.): 3.2\n- Oil and gas sector GDP (percentage change): 2018: -1.5; 2019: -4.9; 2020: -4.8; 2021: -7.3; 2022: -4.7; 2023 (Est.): 6.3; 2024 (Proj.): 2.1; 2025 (Proj.): 1.9; 2026 (Proj.): 1.5\n- Non-oil and gas sector GDP (percentage change): 2018: 8.9; 2019: 2.0; 2020: 4.3; 2021: 0.9; 2022: 3.6; 2023 (Est.): 4.0; 2024 (Proj.): 4.5\n\n- Oil production ('000 barrels/day): 2018: 112; 2019: 121; 2020: 110; 2021: 107; 2022: 92; 2023 (Est.): 84; 2024 (Proj.): 79; 2025 (Proj.): 94; 2026 (Proj.): 102\n- Natural gas output (millions BTUs/day): 2018: 1,372; 2019: 1,402; 2020: 1,358; 2021: 1,253; 2022: 1,151; 2023 (Est.): 1,114; 2024 (Proj.): 1,270; 2025 (Proj.): 1,220; 2026 (Proj.): 1,195; 2027 (Proj.): 1,319; 2028 (Proj.): 1,331\n\n- Average Brunei oil price (U.S. dollars per barrel): 2018: 73.2; 2019: 68.6; 2020: 43.3; 2021: 72.1; 2022: 107.7; 2023 (Est.): 83.0; 2024 (Proj.): 79.1; 2025 (Proj.): 75.3; 2026 (Proj.): 73.3; 2027 (Proj.): 71.1; 2028 (Proj.): 69.6\n- Average Brunei gas price (U.S. dollars per million BTU): 2018: 10.5; 2019: 9.1; 2020: 6.7; 2021: 14.4; 2022: 5.4; 2023 (Est.): 5.8; 2024 (Proj.): 4.4; 2025 (Proj.): 3.3\n\n- Consumer prices (period average, percentage change): 2022: 3.7\n\nPublic finances (Budgetary Central Government, percent of GDP)\n- Total revenue: 2018: 32.7; 2019: 26.4; 2020: 12.6; 2021: 24.1; 2022: 28.3; 2023 (Est.): 19.5; 2024 (Proj.): 19.4; 2025 (Proj.): 18.6; 2026 (Proj.): 17.4; 2027 (Proj.): 16.5; 2028 (Proj.): 15.7\n- Oil and gas revenue: 2018: 19.8; 2019: 7.7; 2020: 20.2; 2021: 24.5; 2022: 14.8; 2023 (Est.): 14.7; 2024 (Proj.): 13.6; 2025 (Proj.): 12.1; 2026 (Proj.): 11.0; 2027 (Proj.): 9.9\n- Other revenue: 2018: 6.5; 2019: 5.0; 2020: 4.7; 2021: 4.8; 2022: 5.3; 2023 (Est.): 5.5\n- Total Expenditure: 2018: 32.5; 2019: 31.9; 2020: 32.6; 2021: 29.2; 2022: 26.7; 2023 (Est.): 28.7; 2024 (Proj.): 27.2; 2025 (Proj.): 26.5; 2026 (Proj.): 25.8; 2027 (Proj.): 25.0; 2028 (Proj.): 24.3\n- Current expenditure: 2018: 29.8; 2019: 29.5; 2020: 31.3; 2021: 28.1; 2022: 25.7; 2023 (Est.): 25.9; 2024 (Proj.): 25.3; 2025 (Proj.): 24.6; 2026 (Proj.): 23.8; 2027 (Proj.): 23.0\n- Capital expenditure: 2018: 2.7; 2019: 2.4; 2020: 1.3; 2021: 1.2; 2022: (not listed)\n- Overall balance 2/: 2018: 0.2; 2019: -5.6; 2020: -20.0; 2021: -5.1; 2022: 1.6; 2023 (Est.): -9.2; 2024 (Proj.): -7.7; 2025 (Proj.): -7.9; 2026 (Proj.): -8.5\n\n- Non-oil and Gas Balance (In percent of non-oil and gas GDP): 2018: -53.5; 2019: -49.5; 2020: -46.1; 2021: -44.3; 2022: -39.2; 2023 (Est.): -38.2; 2024 (Proj.): -35.1; 2025 (Proj.): -32.7; 2026 (Proj.): -30.0; 2027 (Proj.): -27.6; 2028 (Proj.): -25.3\n\nMoney and banking / external sector highlights\n- Private Sector Credit: 2019: -3.1; 2020: 6.0\n- Narrow money: 2019: -3.0; 2020: 6.6; 2021: 20.8; 2022: 3.8\n- Exports (millions): 2018: 6,473; 2019: 7,207; 2020: 6,542; 2021: 11,006; 2022: 14,130; 2023 (Est.): 10,475; 2024 (Proj.): 10,814; 2025 (Proj.): 11,139; 2026 (Proj.): 11,441; 2027 (Proj.): 11,645; 2028 (Proj.): 12,088\n- Of which: oil and gas exports: 2018: 2,691; 2019: 3,244; 2020: 2,943; 2021: 4,730; 2022: 5,660; 2023 (Est.): 3,344; 2024 (Proj.): 3,565; 2025 (Proj.): 3,718; 2026 (Proj.): 3,830; 2027 (Proj.): 3,723; 2028 (Proj.): 3,787\n- Imports (millions): 2018: 4,113; 2019: 4,999; 2020: 5,157; 2021: 8,326; 2022: 8,977; 2023 (Est.): 7,678\n- Services (net): 2018: -1,008; 2019: -1,189; 2020: -854; 2021: -697; 2022: -848; 2023 (Est.): -948\n- Primary Income (net): 2018: 361; 2019: 362; 2020: 90; 2021: -370; 2022: 261; 2023 (Est.): 306\n- Secondary Income (net): 2018: -506; 2019: -490; 2020: -350; 2021: -502; 2022: -671; 2023 (Est.): -508\n- Current Account Balance (millions): 2018: 930; 2019: 890; 2020: 542; 2021: 1,572; 2022: 3,264; 2023 (Est.): 1,603; 2024 (Proj.): 1,832; 2025 (Proj.): 2,060; 2026 (Proj.): 2,214; 2027 (Proj.): 2,323; 2028 (Proj.): 2,542\n- Current Account Balance (in percent of GDP): 2018: 6.9; 2019: 11.2; 2020: 19.6; 2021: 10.6; 2022: 11.6; 2023 (Est.): 12.7; 2024 (Proj.): 13.2; 2025 (Proj.): 13.3; 2026 (Proj.): 14.0\n\n- Gross Official Reserves (millions): 2018: 3,407; 2019: 4,273; 2020: 3,997; 2021: 4,980; 2022: 5,035; 2023 (Est.): 5,145; 2024 (Proj.): 5,257; 2025 (Proj.): 5,369; 2026 (Proj.): 5,481; 2027 (Proj.): 5,593; 2028 (Proj.): 5,705\n- In months of next year's imports of goods and services: 8.1; 5.2; 5.9; 6.8 (years corresponding to table entries)\n- Brunei dollars per U.S. dollar (period average): 2018: 1.35; 2019: 1.36; 2020: 1.38; 2021: 1.34\n- Brunei dollar per U.S. dollar (end of period): 2018: 1.32\n\nPress Release No. 23/336 — IMF Communications Department\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- Brunei Darussalam and the IMF\n- IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2023/10/04/pr23336-brunei-imf-executive-board-concludes-2023-article-iv-consultation-with-brunei-darussalam"
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    "Published: October 6, 2023",
    "Brunei has begun to recover from the pandemic, with COVID-19 restrictions lifted and borders reopened in 2022.",
    "Recovery hindered by reduced Oil and Gas (O&G) sector production despite rising commodity prices.",
    "Real GDP contracted in 2022 due to a decline in O&G production, partly offset by growth in downstream O&G activities and non-O&G sectors.",
    "Labor market improved, although gains were primarily in lower-paid jobs.",
    "Inflation rose in 2022 to 3.7 percent but has since moderated; the stable exchange rate helped mitigate the impact of imported inflation.",
    "Fiscal and current account positions improved in 2022, 1.6 and 19.6 percent, respectively, driven by higher O&G prices and an expansion of exports from the downstream sector.",
    "Banking sector remains stable, liquid, and well capitalized with declining non-performing loans; domestic lending showed signs of recovery, particularly in the corporate sector.",
    "Growth is forecasted to contract by about 1 percent in 2023 due to reduced O&G production—largely driven by the deferment of infrastructure maintenance in the O&G sector—while non-O&G sector recovery will continue to contribute positively.",
    "Inflation is predicted to moderate to 1.7 percent, with the easing of global supply chain bottlenecks and commodity price normalization.",
    "Fiscal and external positions are projected to weaken to deficit of around -9 percent of GDP and a surplus of 10.6 percent of GDP respectively in 2023, and through the medium-term.",
    "Key challenges: gradually narrowing fiscal space, need to shield the economy against O&G sector volatility, global decarbonization pressures, and ensuring intergenerational equity.",
    "Risks include protracted O&G maintenance activities and a less favorable external environment that could impede the recovery; higher O&G prices could provide an upside.",
    "Directors noted that a contraction in the oil and gas sector weakened the recovery and that the outlook remains subject to substantial downside risks.",
    "Emphasized need for prudent policies and structural reforms to support the recovery, maintain macroeconomic stability, and promote diversification and climate resilience.",
    "Recommended priorities and policy measures:",
    "Continued capacity development supported by the Fund was deemed important.",
    "Area: 5,765 sq. kilometers",
    "Population (2021): 440,715",
    "Nominal GDP per capita (2021): US$31,449.1",
    "Main export destinations ( Nov 2022): Australia (21.2 percent), Japan (15.8), China (15.0), and Singapore (13.4)",
    "Unemployment rate (2021): 4.9%",
    "Labor force participation rate (2020): total 63.8%; male 71.7%; female 54.9%",
    "Nominal GDP (millions of Brunei dollars): 2022: 23,003; 2023 (Est.): 20,321; 2024 (Proj.): 21,483; 2025 (Proj.): 22,220; 2026 (Proj.): 22,952; 2027 (Proj.): 23,900; 2028 (Proj.): 24,883",
    "Nominal non-oil and gas GDP (millions of Brunei dollars): 2022: 11,043; 2023 (Est.): 11,958; 2024 (Proj.): 12,738; 2025 (Proj.): 13,545; 2026 (Proj.): 14,683; 2027 (Proj.): 15,829; 2028 (Proj.): 17,061",
    "Real GDP (percentage change): 2018: 0.1; 2019: 3.9; 2020: 1.1; 2021: -1.6; 2022: -0.8; 2023 (Est.): 3.5; 2024 (Proj.): 2.8; 2025 (Proj.): 3.0; 2026 (Proj.): 3.1; 2027 (Proj.): 3.2",
    "Oil and gas sector GDP (percentage change): 2018: -1.5; 2019: -4.9; 2020: -4.8; 2021: -7.3; 2022: -4.7; 2023 (Est.): 6.3; 2024 (Proj.): 2.1; 2025 (Proj.): 1.9; 2026 (Proj.): 1.5",
    "Non-oil and gas sector GDP (percentage change): 2018: 8.9; 2019: 2.0; 2020: 4.3; 2021: 0.9; 2022: 3.6; 2023 (Est.): 4.0; 2024 (Proj.): 4.5",
    "Oil production ('000 barrels/day): 2018: 112; 2019: 121; 2020: 110; 2021: 107; 2022: 92; 2023 (Est.): 84; 2024 (Proj.): 79; 2025 (Proj.): 94; 2026 (Proj.): 102",
    "Natural gas output (millions BTUs/day): 2018: 1,372; 2019: 1,402; 2020: 1,358; 2021: 1,253; 2022: 1,151; 2023 (Est.): 1,114; 2024 (Proj.): 1,270; 2025 (Proj.): 1,220; 2026 (Proj.): 1,195; 2027 (Proj.): 1,319; 2028 (Proj.): 1,331",
    "Average Brunei oil price (U.S. dollars per barrel): 2018: 73.2; 2019: 68.6; 2020: 43.3; 2021: 72.1; 2022: 107.7; 2023 (Est.): 83.0; 2024 (Proj.): 79.1; 2025 (Proj.): 75.3; 2026 (Proj.): 73.3; 2027 (Proj.): 71.1; 2028 (Proj.): 69.6",
    "Average Brunei gas price (U.S. dollars per million BTU): 2018: 10.5; 2019: 9.1; 2020: 6.7; 2021: 14.4; 2022: 5.4; 2023 (Est.): 5.8; 2024 (Proj.): 4.4; 2025 (Proj.): 3.3",
    "Consumer prices (period average, percentage change): 2022: 3.7",
    "Total revenue: 2018: 32.7; 2019: 26.4; 2020: 12.6; 2021: 24.1; 2022: 28.3; 2023 (Est.): 19.5; 2024 (Proj.): 19.4; 2025 (Proj.): 18.6; 2026 (Proj.): 17.4; 2027 (Proj.): 16.5; 2028 (Proj.): 15.7",
    "Oil and gas revenue: 2018: 19.8; 2019: 7.7; 2020: 20.2; 2021: 24.5; 2022: 14.8; 2023 (Est.): 14.7; 2024 (Proj.): 13.6; 2025 (Proj.): 12.1; 2026 (Proj.): 11.0; 2027 (Proj.): 9.9",
    "Other revenue: 2018: 6.5; 2019: 5.0; 2020: 4.7; 2021: 4.8; 2022: 5.3; 2023 (Est.): 5.5",
    "Total Expenditure: 2018: 32.5; 2019: 31.9; 2020: 32.6; 2021: 29.2; 2022: 26.7; 2023 (Est.): 28.7; 2024 (Proj.): 27.2; 2025 (Proj.): 26.5; 2026 (Proj.): 25.8; 2027 (Proj.): 25.0; 2028 (Proj.): 24.3",
    "Current expenditure: 2018: 29.8; 2019: 29.5; 2020: 31.3; 2021: 28.1; 2022: 25.7; 2023 (Est.): 25.9; 2024 (Proj.): 25.3; 2025 (Proj.): 24.6; 2026 (Proj.): 23.8; 2027 (Proj.): 23.0",
    "Capital expenditure: 2018: 2.7; 2019: 2.4; 2020: 1.3; 2021: 1.2; 2022: (not listed)",
    "Overall balance 2/: 2018: 0.2; 2019: -5.6; 2020: -20.0; 2021: -5.1; 2022: 1.6; 2023 (Est.): -9.2; 2024 (Proj.): -7.7; 2025 (Proj.): -7.9; 2026 (Proj.): -8.5",
    "Non-oil and Gas Balance (In percent of non-oil and gas GDP): 2018: -53.5; 2019: -49.5; 2020: -46.1; 2021: -44.3; 2022: -39.2; 2023 (Est.): -38.2; 2024 (Proj.): -35.1; 2025 (Proj.): -32.7; 2026 (Proj.): -30.0; 2027 (Proj.): -27.6; 2028 (Proj.): -25.3",
    "Private Sector Credit: 2019: -3.1; 2020: 6.0",
    "Narrow money: 2019: -3.0; 2020: 6.6; 2021: 20.8; 2022: 3.8",
    "Exports (millions): 2018: 6,473; 2019: 7,207; 2020: 6,542; 2021: 11,006; 2022: 14,130; 2023 (Est.): 10,475; 2024 (Proj.): 10,814; 2025 (Proj.): 11,139; 2026 (Proj.): 11,441; 2027 (Proj.): 11,645; 2028 (Proj.): 12,088",
    "Of which: oil and gas exports: 2018: 2,691; 2019: 3,244; 2020: 2,943; 2021: 4,730; 2022: 5,660; 2023 (Est.): 3,344; 2024 (Proj.): 3,565; 2025 (Proj.): 3,718; 2026 (Proj.): 3,830; 2027 (Proj.): 3,723; 2028 (Proj.): 3,787",
    "Imports (millions): 2018: 4,113; 2019: 4,999; 2020: 5,157; 2021: 8,326; 2022: 8,977; 2023 (Est.): 7,678",
    "Services (net): 2018: -1,008; 2019: -1,189; 2020: -854; 2021: -697; 2022: -848; 2023 (Est.): -948",
    "Primary Income (net): 2018: 361; 2019: 362; 2020: 90; 2021: -370; 2022: 261; 2023 (Est.): 306",
    "Secondary Income (net): 2018: -506; 2019: -490; 2020: -350; 2021: -502; 2022: -671; 2023 (Est.): -508",
    "Current Account Balance (millions): 2018: 930; 2019: 890; 2020: 542; 2021: 1,572; 2022: 3,264; 2023 (Est.): 1,603; 2024 (Proj.): 1,832; 2025 (Proj.): 2,060; 2026 (Proj.): 2,214; 2027 (Proj.): 2,323; 2028 (Proj.): 2,542",
    "Current Account Balance (in percent of GDP): 2018: 6.9; 2019: 11.2; 2020: 19.6; 2021: 10.6; 2022: 11.6; 2023 (Est.): 12.7; 2024 (Proj.): 13.2; 2025 (Proj.): 13.3; 2026 (Proj.): 14.0",
    "Gross Official Reserves (millions): 2018: 3,407; 2019: 4,273; 2020: 3,997; 2021: 4,980; 2022: 5,035; 2023 (Est.): 5,145; 2024 (Proj.): 5,257; 2025 (Proj.): 5,369; 2026 (Proj.): 5,481; 2027 (Proj.): 5,593; 2028 (Proj.): 5,705",
    "In months of next year's imports of goods and services: 8.1; 5.2; 5.9; 6.8 (years corresponding to table entries)",
    "Brunei dollars per U.S. dollar (period average): 2018: 1.35; 2019: 1.36; 2020: 1.38; 2021: 1.34",
    "Brunei dollar per U.S. dollar (end of period): 2018: 1.32",
    "[Brunei Darussalam and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/BRN/index.htm)",
    "[IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)",
    "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm](http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
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