{
  "title": "China’s Slowing Economy Will Hit Sub-Saharan Africa’s Growth",
  "publication": "IMF News, November 9, 2023",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2023/11/09/cf-chinas-slowing-economy-will-hit-sub-saharan-africas-growth",
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  "summary": "The country’s economic engagement with the region is evolving, with implications for growth, trade, and investment.",
  "authors": [
    "Hany Abdel-Latif"
  ],
  "publishDate": "2023-11-09",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "China–Sub-Saharan Africa economic ties and trade patterns",
      "content": "- China is the region's largest single country trading partner.\n- China buys one-fifth of the region’s exports—metals, minerals, and fuel—and provides most of the manufactured goods and machinery imported by African countries.\n- China’s recovery from the pandemic has slowed recently due to a property downturn and flagging demand for its manufactured goods as global growth has also slowed."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Estimated growth spillovers to sub-Saharan Africa",
      "content": "- A one percentage point decline in China’s growth rate could reduce average growth in the region by about 0.25 percentage points within a year.\n- For oil-exporters, such as Angola and Nigeria, the loss could be 0.5 percentage points on average."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Sovereign lending and public debt exposure",
      "content": "- Sovereign lending from China to sub-Saharan Africa fell below $1 billion last year—the lowest level in nearly two decades.\n- Chinese loans to the region rose rapidly in the 2000s, with China’s share of total sub-Saharan African external public debt jumping from less than 2 percent before 2005 to 17 percent by 2021.\n- China is the largest bilateral official lender to countries in the region.\n- The share of debt owed to China remains relatively small, at just under 6 percent of the region’s overall public debt and is mostly owed by five countries—Angola, Cameroon, Kenya, Nigeria, and Zambia."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Adaptation and policy recommendations for sub-Saharan African countries",
      "content": "- Build resilience to China’s growth slowdown and declining economic engagements by:\n  - Increasing inter-African trade.\n  - Rebuilding buffers, including through tax policy reforms and improvements to revenue administration.\n- Diversify economies to sustain future growth; leverage strong demand for minerals that support renewable energy development to:\n  - Forge new trade relationships.\n  - Develop more local processing capabilities.\n- Improve competitiveness by:\n  - Creating a favorable business environment.\n  - Investing in infrastructure.\n  - Deepening domestic financial markets.\n\nSource: IMF — \"China’s Slowing Economy Will Hit Sub-Saharan Africa’s Growth\" (November 9, 2023).\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK\n- https://www.imf.org/en/News/country-focus\n- China’s recovery\n- escalating public debt\n- geoeconomic fragmentation\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2023/11/09/cf-chinas-slowing-economy-will-hit-sub-saharan-africas-growth"
    }
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    "Authors: Hany Abdel-Latif",
    "Published: November 9, 2023",
    "China is the region's largest single country trading partner.",
    "China buys one-fifth of the region’s exports—metals, minerals, and fuel—and provides most of the manufactured goods and machinery imported by African countries.",
    "China’s recovery from the pandemic has slowed recently due to a property downturn and flagging demand for its manufactured goods as global growth has also slowed.",
    "A one percentage point decline in China’s growth rate could reduce average growth in the region by about 0.25 percentage points within a year.",
    "For oil-exporters, such as Angola and Nigeria, the loss could be 0.5 percentage points on average.",
    "Sovereign lending from China to sub-Saharan Africa fell below $1 billion last year—the lowest level in nearly two decades.",
    "Chinese loans to the region rose rapidly in the 2000s, with China’s share of total sub-Saharan African external public debt jumping from less than 2 percent before 2005 to 17 percent by 2021.",
    "China is the largest bilateral official lender to countries in the region.",
    "The share of debt owed to China remains relatively small, at just under 6 percent of the region’s overall public debt and is mostly owed by five countries—Angola, Cameroon, Kenya, Nigeria, and Zambia.",
    "Build resilience to China’s growth slowdown and declining economic engagements by:",
    "Diversify economies to sustain future growth; leverage strong demand for minerals that support renewable energy development to:",
    "Improve competitiveness by:",
    "[REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO/SSA/Issues/2023/10/16/regional-economic-outlook-for-sub-saharan-africa-october-2023)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/News/country-focus](https://www.imf.org/en/News/country-focus)",
    "[China’s recovery](https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2023/11/07/pr23380-imf-staff-completes-2023-article-iv-mission-to-the-peoples-republic-of-china)",
    "[escalating public debt](https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2023/09/26/cf-how-to-avoid-a-debt-crisis-in-sub-saharan-africa)",
    "[geoeconomic fragmentation](https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2023/04/27/cf-economic-growth-in-ssa-could-permanently-decline-if-geopolitical-tensions-escalate)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
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