## China’s Slowing Economy Will Hit Sub-Saharan Africa’s Growth

_IMF News, November 9, 2023_

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Hany Abdel-Latif
- Published: November 9, 2023

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### China–Sub-Saharan Africa economic ties and trade patterns
- China is the region's largest single country trading partner.
- China buys one-fifth of the region’s exports—metals, minerals, and fuel—and provides most of the manufactured goods and machinery imported by African countries.
- China’s recovery from the pandemic has slowed recently due to a property downturn and flagging demand for its manufactured goods as global growth has also slowed.

### Estimated growth spillovers to sub-Saharan Africa
- A one percentage point decline in China’s growth rate could reduce average growth in the region by about 0.25 percentage points within a year.
- For oil-exporters, such as Angola and Nigeria, the loss could be 0.5 percentage points on average.

### Sovereign lending and public debt exposure
- Sovereign lending from China to sub-Saharan Africa fell below $1 billion last year—the lowest level in nearly two decades.
- Chinese loans to the region rose rapidly in the 2000s, with China’s share of total sub-Saharan African external public debt jumping from less than 2 percent before 2005 to 17 percent by 2021.
- China is the largest bilateral official lender to countries in the region.
- The share of debt owed to China remains relatively small, at just under 6 percent of the region’s overall public debt and is mostly owed by five countries—Angola, Cameroon, Kenya, Nigeria, and Zambia.

### Adaptation and policy recommendations for sub-Saharan African countries
- Build resilience to China’s growth slowdown and declining economic engagements by:
  - Increasing inter-African trade.
  - Rebuilding buffers, including through tax policy reforms and improvements to revenue administration.
- Diversify economies to sustain future growth; leverage strong demand for minerals that support renewable energy development to:
  - Forge new trade relationships.
  - Develop more local processing capabilities.
- Improve competitiveness by:
  - Creating a favorable business environment.
  - Investing in infrastructure.
  - Deepening domestic financial markets.

*Source: IMF — "China’s Slowing Economy Will Hit Sub-Saharan Africa’s Growth" (November 9, 2023).*

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## References

- [REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO/SSA/Issues/2023/10/16/regional-economic-outlook-for-sub-saharan-africa-october-2023)
- [https://www.imf.org/en/News/country-focus](https://www.imf.org/en/News/country-focus)
- [China’s recovery](https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2023/11/07/pr23380-imf-staff-completes-2023-article-iv-mission-to-the-peoples-republic-of-china)
- [escalating public debt](https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2023/09/26/cf-how-to-avoid-a-debt-crisis-in-sub-saharan-africa)
- [geoeconomic fragmentation](https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2023/04/27/cf-economic-growth-in-ssa-could-permanently-decline-if-geopolitical-tensions-escalate)
- [https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2023/11/09/cf-chinas-slowing-economy-will-hit-sub-saharan-africas-growth_