{
  "title": "IMF Staff Completes 2023 Article IV Mission to Qatar",
  "publication": "IMF News, November 21, 2023",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2023/11/21/pr23407-qatar-imf-staff-completes-2023-article-iv-mission",
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  "summary": "An International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff team, led by Ms. Ran Bi, visited Doha during November 1–14, 2023 to conduct discussions for the 2023 Article IV consultation.",
  "publishDate": "2023-11-21",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Growth outlook and macroeconomic projections",
      "content": "- Mission dates: November 1–14, 2023.\n- Executive Board discussion scheduled: January 2024.\n- Short-term normalization after World Cup-driven boom: economic growth \"has been normalizing\" in 2023.\n- Output projection: expected to expand by about 1¾ percent per annum during 2023–25.\n- Non-hydrocarbon sector: growing at 2¾ percent (driven by domestic demand, including North Field expansion construction, and robust tourism).\n- Medium-term growth: set to increase to around 5 percent per annum supported by LNG production expansion and reform efforts under the Third National Development Strategy (NDS3).\n- Inflation: \"will likely moderate to 2 percent\".\n- External and fiscal balances: \"the fiscal and current accounts are projected to remain in surpluses over the medium term.\"\n- Risk assessment: \"Risks to the outlook are broadly balanced.\""
    },
    {
      "heading": "Fiscal position and recommendations",
      "content": "- Recent performance: \"Broad fiscal discipline amid sizeable hydrocarbon windfalls in 2022–23 has strengthened fiscal position significantly.\"\n- Near-term outlook: \"Continued fiscal prudence is expected under the upcoming 2024 budget.\"\n- Medium-term budgeting: the next medium-term budget is being developed and will cover 5 years for the first time to support NDS3 initiatives.\n- Policy priorities and recommendations:\n  - Sustain fiscal prudence while balancing transformation ambitions.\n  - Accelerate revenue diversification through further mobilization of non-hydrocarbon tax revenues.\n  - Enhance spending efficiency and reorient public investment to facilitate private sector growth.\n  - Implement and strengthen a well-functioning medium-term fiscal framework and greater fiscal transparency.\n  - Continue efforts to enhance efficiency, including implementation of program-based budgeting."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Monetary policy and financial sector stability",
      "content": "- Central bank actions: \"The Qatar Central Bank (QCB) has maintained price and financial stability.\"\n- Monetary context: monetary policy tightened in tandem with the U.S. Federal Reserve; consistent with the currency peg to the U.S. dollar.\n- Banking sector soundness: \"Banks remain healthy,\" though the non-performing loan ratio \"has edged up\" as pandemic-related restructured loans reverted to non-performing, output growth normalized, and financial conditions tightened.\n- Mitigating factors: \"Banks’ relatively high provisioning mitigates the risks.\"\n- Macroprudential measures: QCB has refined measures to reduce risks associated with banks’ external asset-liability mismatches, especially short maturities.\n- Recommendations:\n  - Continued diligence to maintain banking sector resilience in a \"higher-for-longer\" interest rate environment.\n  - Complement prudential vigilance with reforms to deepen domestic financial markets, as envisaged in the upcoming financial sector strategy."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Structural reforms and development strategy",
      "content": "- Strategic juncture: Qatar is shifting from a state-led model to a more dynamic, market-oriented one driven by the private sector.\n- Role of NDS3: the upcoming Third National Development Strategy provides an opportunity to accelerate economic transformation toward a knowledge-based and inclusive economy supported by private-sector led growth.\n- Reform priorities:\n  - Enhance human capital and labor market dynamism.\n  - Improve the business environment to support private-sector growth.\n  - Further digitalization with attention to potential risks.\n  - Strengthen climate resilience and advance the green transition.\n- Implementation support: Targeted reforms should be supported by reoriented public investment, program-based budgeting, medium-term fiscal frameworks, and greater fiscal transparency.\n\nIMF Staff Completes 2023 Article IV Mission to Qatar, November 21, 2023.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg\n- The Executive Board\n- Qatar and the IMF\n- IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2023/11/21/pr23407-qatar-imf-staff-completes-2023-article-iv-mission"
    }
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    "Published: November 21, 2023",
    "Mission dates: November 1–14, 2023.",
    "Executive Board discussion scheduled: January 2024.",
    "Short-term normalization after World Cup-driven boom: economic growth \"has been normalizing\" in 2023.",
    "Output projection: expected to expand by about 1¾ percent per annum during 2023–25.",
    "Non-hydrocarbon sector: growing at 2¾ percent (driven by domestic demand, including North Field expansion construction, and robust tourism).",
    "Medium-term growth: set to increase to around 5 percent per annum supported by LNG production expansion and reform efforts under the Third National Development Strategy (NDS3).",
    "Inflation: \"will likely moderate to 2 percent\".",
    "External and fiscal balances: \"the fiscal and current accounts are projected to remain in surpluses over the medium term.\"",
    "Risk assessment: \"Risks to the outlook are broadly balanced.\"",
    "Recent performance: \"Broad fiscal discipline amid sizeable hydrocarbon windfalls in 2022–23 has strengthened fiscal position significantly.\"",
    "Near-term outlook: \"Continued fiscal prudence is expected under the upcoming 2024 budget.\"",
    "Medium-term budgeting: the next medium-term budget is being developed and will cover 5 years for the first time to support NDS3 initiatives.",
    "Policy priorities and recommendations:",
    "Central bank actions: \"The Qatar Central Bank (QCB) has maintained price and financial stability.\"",
    "Monetary context: monetary policy tightened in tandem with the U.S. Federal Reserve; consistent with the currency peg to the U.S. dollar.",
    "Banking sector soundness: \"Banks remain healthy,\" though the non-performing loan ratio \"has edged up\" as pandemic-related restructured loans reverted to non-performing, output growth normalized, and financial conditions tightened.",
    "Mitigating factors: \"Banks’ relatively high provisioning mitigates the risks.\"",
    "Macroprudential measures: QCB has refined measures to reduce risks associated with banks’ external asset-liability mismatches, especially short maturities.",
    "Recommendations:",
    "Strategic juncture: Qatar is shifting from a state-led model to a more dynamic, market-oriented one driven by the private sector.",
    "Role of NDS3: the upcoming Third National Development Strategy provides an opportunity to accelerate economic transformation toward a knowledge-based and inclusive economy supported by private-sector led growth.",
    "Reform priorities:",
    "Implementation support: Targeted reforms should be supported by reoriented public investment, program-based budgeting, medium-term fiscal frameworks, and greater fiscal transparency.",
    "[https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg](https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg)",
    "[The Executive Board](https://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/memdir/eds.aspx)",
    "[Qatar and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/QAT/index.htm)",
    "[IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)",
    "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
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