## IMF Staff Completes 2023 Article IV Mission to Qatar

_IMF News, November 21, 2023_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [IMF Staff Completes 2023 Article IV Mission to Qatar](https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2023/11/21/pr23407-qatar-imf-staff-completes-2023-article-iv-mission)

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## Bibliographic details
- Published: November 21, 2023

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### Growth outlook and macroeconomic projections
- Mission dates: November 1–14, 2023.
- Executive Board discussion scheduled: January 2024.
- Short-term normalization after World Cup-driven boom: economic growth "has been normalizing" in 2023.
- Output projection: expected to expand by about 1¾ percent per annum during 2023–25.
- Non-hydrocarbon sector: growing at 2¾ percent (driven by domestic demand, including North Field expansion construction, and robust tourism).
- Medium-term growth: set to increase to around 5 percent per annum supported by LNG production expansion and reform efforts under the Third National Development Strategy (NDS3).
- Inflation: "will likely moderate to 2 percent".
- External and fiscal balances: "the fiscal and current accounts are projected to remain in surpluses over the medium term."
- Risk assessment: "Risks to the outlook are broadly balanced."

### Fiscal position and recommendations
- Recent performance: "Broad fiscal discipline amid sizeable hydrocarbon windfalls in 2022–23 has strengthened fiscal position significantly."
- Near-term outlook: "Continued fiscal prudence is expected under the upcoming 2024 budget."
- Medium-term budgeting: the next medium-term budget is being developed and will cover 5 years for the first time to support NDS3 initiatives.
- Policy priorities and recommendations:
  - Sustain fiscal prudence while balancing transformation ambitions.
  - Accelerate revenue diversification through further mobilization of non-hydrocarbon tax revenues.
  - Enhance spending efficiency and reorient public investment to facilitate private sector growth.
  - Implement and strengthen a well-functioning medium-term fiscal framework and greater fiscal transparency.
  - Continue efforts to enhance efficiency, including implementation of program-based budgeting.

### Monetary policy and financial sector stability
- Central bank actions: "The Qatar Central Bank (QCB) has maintained price and financial stability."
- Monetary context: monetary policy tightened in tandem with the U.S. Federal Reserve; consistent with the currency peg to the U.S. dollar.
- Banking sector soundness: "Banks remain healthy," though the non-performing loan ratio "has edged up" as pandemic-related restructured loans reverted to non-performing, output growth normalized, and financial conditions tightened.
- Mitigating factors: "Banks’ relatively high provisioning mitigates the risks."
- Macroprudential measures: QCB has refined measures to reduce risks associated with banks’ external asset-liability mismatches, especially short maturities.
- Recommendations:
  - Continued diligence to maintain banking sector resilience in a "higher-for-longer" interest rate environment.
  - Complement prudential vigilance with reforms to deepen domestic financial markets, as envisaged in the upcoming financial sector strategy.

### Structural reforms and development strategy
- Strategic juncture: Qatar is shifting from a state-led model to a more dynamic, market-oriented one driven by the private sector.
- Role of NDS3: the upcoming Third National Development Strategy provides an opportunity to accelerate economic transformation toward a knowledge-based and inclusive economy supported by private-sector led growth.
- Reform priorities:
  - Enhance human capital and labor market dynamism.
  - Improve the business environment to support private-sector growth.
  - Further digitalization with attention to potential risks.
  - Strengthen climate resilience and advance the green transition.
- Implementation support: Targeted reforms should be supported by reoriented public investment, program-based budgeting, medium-term fiscal frameworks, and greater fiscal transparency.

*IMF Staff Completes 2023 Article IV Mission to Qatar, November 21, 2023.*

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## References

- [https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg](https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg)
- [The Executive Board](https://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/memdir/eds.aspx)
- [Qatar and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/QAT/index.htm)
- [IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)
- [Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)
- [PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)
- [https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2023/11/21/pr23407-qatar-imf-staff-completes-2023-article-iv-mission_