{
  "title": "IMF Executive Board Concludes 2023 Article IV Consultation with Oman",
  "publication": "IMF News, January 23, 2024",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2024/01/23/pr2421-omn-imf-executive-board-concludes-2023-article-iv-consultation-with-oman",
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  "summary": "The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation with Oman.",
  "publishDate": "2024-01-23",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Macroeconomic performance and outlook",
      "content": "- Economic growth:\n  - Economy grew by 4.3 percent in 2022.\n  - Growth slowed to 2.1 percent (year on year) in the first half of 2023.\n  - Real GDP: 2020: -3.4; 2021: 3.1; 2022: 4.3; 2023: 1.3; 2024 (Proj.): 1.4; 2025 (Proj.): 2.9; 2026 (Proj.): 3.5; 2027 (Proj.): 3.2; 2028 (Proj.): 3.0.\n  - Real hydrocarbon GDP 1/: 2020: -3.6; 2021: 5.2; 2022: 9.6; 2023: 0.0; 2024 (Proj.): -0.5; 2025 (Proj.): 2.5; 2026 (Proj.): 3.0; 2027 (Proj.): 2.0; 2028 (Proj.): 1.6.\n  - Real non-hydrocarbon GDP: 2020: -3.3; 2021: 1.9; 2022: 1.2; 2023: 2.1; 2024 (Proj.): 3.9; 2025 (Proj.): 4.0.\n- Inflation and prices:\n  - Consumer prices (average): 2020: -0.9; 2021: 1.5; 2022: 2.8; 2023: 1.7; 2024 (Proj.): (table shows but not all years listed).\n  - Inflation receded from 2.8 percent in 2022 to 1.2 percent during January-September 2023.\n  - GDP Deflator: 2020: -10.8; 2021: 12.7; 2022: 24.6; 2023: -6.8; 2024 (Proj.): -0.7; 2025 (Proj.): -0.4; 2026 (Proj.): -0.1; 2027 (Proj.): 0.3.\n- Oil and gas sector:\n  - Average crude oil export price (US$/barrel): 2020: 46.0; 2021: 64.3; 2022: 95.4; 2023: 80.0; 2024 (Proj.): 79.9; 2025 (Proj.): 76.0; 2026 (Proj.): 72.7; 2027 (Proj.): 69.9; 2028 (Proj.): 67.5.\n  - Crude and condensates oil production (in millions of barrels/day): 2020: 0.951; 2021: 0.971; 2022: 1.064; 2023: 1.048; 2024 (Proj.): 1.021; 2025 (Proj.): 1.050; 2026 (Proj.): 1.088; 2027 (Proj.): 1.110; 2028 (Proj.): 1.132.\n  - Natural gas production (in millions of cubic meters per day): 2020: 121.9; 2021: 132.2; 2022: 137.2; 2023: 146.4; 2024 (Proj.): 155.9; 2025 (Proj.): 159.2; 2026 (Proj.): 162.2; 2027 (Proj.): 167.1; 2028 (Proj.): 168.1."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Fiscal and external positions",
      "content": "- Fiscal outcomes:\n  - Overall fiscal balance estimated at 5.5 percent of GDP in 2023.\n  - (Table: Overall balance (Net lending/borrowing)): 2020: -15.7; 2021: -3.1; 2022: 10.1; 2023: 5.5; 2024 (Proj.): 3.7; 2025 (Proj.): 4.1; 2026 (Proj.): 4.4; 2027 (Proj.): 3.8; 2028 (Proj.): 3.3.\n  - (Table: (adjusted) 2/): 2020: -9.6; 2021: -0.8; 2022: (value not shown in excerpt).\n  - Revenue and grants (percent of GDP): 2020: 28.9; 2021: 33.0; 2022: 39.7; 2023: 31.8; 2024 (Proj.): 30.9; 2025 (Proj.): 30.4; 2026 (Proj.): 29.6; 2027 (Proj.): 28.5; 2028 (Proj.): 27.4.\n  - Hydrocarbon revenue (percent of GDP): 2020: 21.7; 2021: 25.9; 2022: 32.3; 2023: 23.6; 2024 (Proj.): 22.6; 2025 (Proj.): 22.0; 2026 (Proj.): 21.1; 2027 (Proj.): 20.0; 2028 (Proj.): 18.9.\n  - Public investment and saving (percent of GDP): Gross capital formation: 2020: 27.6; 2021: 22.4; 2022: 23.2; 2023: 24.4; 2024 (Proj.): 24.5; 2025 (Proj.): 25.3; 2026 (Proj.): 25.5; 2027 (Proj.): 26.3; 2028 (Proj.): 26.9.\n  - Gross national savings: 2020: 11.5; 2021: 17.0; 2022: 28.2; 2023: 27.2; 2024 (Proj.): 27.3; 2025 (Proj.): 27.7; 2026 (Proj.): 27.8; 2027 (Proj.): 28.1; 2028 (Proj.): 28.7.\n- Public debt and external balances:\n  - Central government debt as a share of GDP declined from about 68 percent in 2020 to 38 percent in 2023. (Table: Central government debt): 2020: 67.9; 2021: 61.3; 2022: 39.9; 2023: 37.7; 2024 (Proj.): 35.7; 2025 (Proj.): 33.7; 2026 (Proj.): 31.9; 2027 (Proj.): 30.5; 2028 (Proj.): 29.4.\n  - Public debt (of which) 2020: 108.1; 2021: 102.0; 2022: 69.8.\n  - External sector (in billions of U.S. dollars): Exports of goods: 2020: 33.4; 2021: 44.3; 2022: 66.1; 2023: 60.2; 2024 (Proj.): 64.6; 2025 (Proj.): 65.6; 2026 (Proj.): 66.4.\n  - Current account balance (in billions of U.S. dollars): 2020: -12.3; 2021: -4.8; 2022: 5.8; 2023: 2.2.\n  - Current account balance (percent of GDP): 2020: -16.2; 2021: -5.4; 2022: 5.0; 2023: 1.8.\n  - Central Bank gross reserves (in billions of U.S. dollars): 2020: 15.0; 2021: 19.7; 2022: 17.6; 2023: 17.5; 2024 (Proj.): 18.4; 2025 (Proj.): 22.8.\n  - Total external debt: 2020: 72.8; 2021: 79.8; 2022: 70.0; 2023: 66.6; 2024 (Proj.): 63.5; 2025 (Proj.): 63.1; 2026 (Proj.): 61.5; 2027 (Proj.): 61.6."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Financial sector and risks",
      "content": "- Banking sector resilience:\n  - Profitability recovered to pre-pandemic levels.\n  - Capital and liquidity ratios are well above regulatory requirements.\n  - Non-performing loans remain low and sufficiently provisioned.\n  - Stress tests suggest banks are resilient to credit and liquidity shocks.\n- Risks to the outlook:\n  - Upside risks:\n    - Higher oil prices from supply/demand imbalances.\n    - Acceleration of Vision 2040 reforms and investments from regional partners.\n    - Faster global disinflation leading to global monetary policy easing and stronger external demand.\n  - Downside risks:\n    - Sharp decline in oil prices, including from a deeper-than-expected economic deceleration in China.\n    - Slowdown in implementation of the reform agenda.\n    - Potential indirect spillovers from the ongoing conflict in Gaza and Israel.\n  - Overall assessment: Risks to the economic outlook are balanced."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Executive Board assessment and policy recommendations",
      "content": "- General judgment:\n  - Executive Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal.\n  - They commended macroeconomic management and broad reform efforts that strengthened fiscal and external positions, preserved financial stability, and lowered public debt.\n  - Directors noted the outlook remains favorable but emphasized continuing reforms to entrench fiscal sustainability and ensure intergenerational equity, while safeguarding financial stability and accelerating economic diversification.\n- Fiscal policy recommendations:\n  - Continue prudent fiscal management while strengthening the social safety net, including through the new social protection law.\n  - Pursue the ongoing tax administration reform program.\n  - Phase out untargeted subsidies as a critical measure to enhance fiscal sustainability.\n  - Strengthen and institutionalize the medium-term fiscal framework.\n  - Enhance transparency of fiscal accounts, expand coverage, disclose fiscal risks, and develop a sovereign asset liability management framework.\n- Monetary and exchange rate policy:\n  - Directors agreed the exchange rate peg continues to serve Oman well as a monetary anchor.\n  - Continue measures to strengthen the monetary transmission mechanism to support a more independent monetary policy regime in the future.\n  - Sustain progress under the Monetary Policy Enhancement Project.\n- Financial sector policy:\n  - Further strengthen the regulatory framework to cement financial stability.\n  - Return the capital conservation buffer to pre-pandemic levels.\n  - Re-assess the list of domestic systemically important institutions.\n  - Further enhance the AML/CFT framework.\n  - Develop the financial sector to enhance access to finance and support economic diversification, including through enhanced digitalization while managing associated risks.\n- Structural and reform priorities:\n  - Continue progress on Oman Vision 2040 to promote sustained, diversified, inclusive, and private sector-led growth.\n  - Maintain commitment to the ambitious climate agenda and invest in renewable energy.\n  - Improve institutional quality, reduce the state footprint, enhance the business environment.\n  - Commended passage of the new labor law and encouraged continued efforts to enhance labor market flexibility and empower women."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Institutional follow-up",
      "content": "- It is expected that the next Article IV consultation with Oman will be held on the standard 12-month cycle.\n- Notes:\n  - [1] Explanation of Article IV consultation process provided in the release.\n  - [2] At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chairman of the Board, summarizes the views of Executive Directors; an explanation of qualifiers is referenced in the release.\n\nSource: IMF press release — \"IMF Executive Board Concludes 2023 Article IV Consultation with Oman\", January 23, 2024.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg\n- The Executive Board\n- Oman and the IMF\n- IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2024/01/23/pr2421-omn-imf-executive-board-concludes-2023-article-iv-consultation-with-oman"
    }
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    "Published: January 23, 2024",
    "Economic growth:",
    "Inflation and prices:",
    "Oil and gas sector:",
    "Fiscal outcomes:",
    "Public debt and external balances:",
    "Banking sector resilience:",
    "Risks to the outlook:",
    "General judgment:",
    "Fiscal policy recommendations:",
    "Monetary and exchange rate policy:",
    "Financial sector policy:",
    "Structural and reform priorities:",
    "It is expected that the next Article IV consultation with Oman will be held on the standard 12-month cycle.",
    "Notes:",
    "[https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg](https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg)",
    "[The Executive Board](https://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/memdir/eds.aspx)",
    "[Oman and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/OMN/index.htm)",
    "[IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)",
    "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm](http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
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