{
  "title": "IMF Executive Board Concludes 2023 Article IV Consultation with Antigua and Barbuda",
  "publication": "IMF News, January 23, 2024",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2024/01/23/pr2422-imf-concludes-2023-article-iv-consultation-with-antigua-and-barbuda",
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  "summary": "Antigua and Barbuda’s economy continues to bounce back from the sharp contraction experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic. Real activity is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, with growth projected at 5.7 percent, driven by a rebound in tourism and construction activity.",
  "publishDate": "2024-01-23",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Economic outlook and activity",
      "content": "- Real activity is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, with growth projected at 5.7 percent, driven by a rebound in tourism and construction activity.\n- Growth is expected to moderate and gradually converge to its long-term trend.\n- Downside risks to growth include weaker tourism performance, unfavorable financing conditions, natural disasters, slower-than-expected growth in trading partners, and a further strengthening of the U.S. dollar.\n- Climate change risks noted: potential for droughts and hurricanes of higher severity and frequency."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Inflation and prices",
      "content": "- Inflation has declined from 2022 peaks but remains elevated at 6.6 percent in August this year, accompanied by moderating core inflation.\n- Price pressures are expected to dissipate in 2024.\n- Risk: inflation may persist longer than expected from higher global commodity prices."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Fiscal position and public debt",
      "content": "- Improved revenues, continued public sector payroll restraint, and a rise in nominal GDP brought down the primary deficit to 1.7 percent of GDP and the public debt to 87 percent of GDP in 2022.\n- Gross financing needs remain high at 14 percent of GDP.\n- Inability to access international capital markets continues to limit financing options.\n- Outstanding arrears owed to external creditors and domestic suppliers persist; continued accumulation of arrears could deteriorate the fiscal position.\n- Key fiscal indicators (percent of GDP unless otherwise noted):\n  - Primary balance: -1.7 (2022)\n  - Overall balance: -1.0 (2022)\n  - Total revenue and grants: 19.3 (2022)\n  - Total expenditure: 23.5 (2022)\n  - Gross financing needs: 14 percent of GDP (level noted in text)"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Financial sector and stability",
      "content": "- The financial sector is well capitalized and liquid; the share of nonperforming loans is stable.\n- Credit growth remains weak.\n- Directors recommended:\n  - Enhancing oversight and regulation of credit unions.\n  - Incorporating climate risks into the stress testing framework.\n  - Continuing to strengthen the AML/CFT and Citizenship-by-Investment Program (CIP) frameworks."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy recommendations and structural measures",
      "content": "- Fiscal adjustment priorities:\n  - Focus on revenue mobilization and expenditure restraint.\n  - Limit discretionary tax exemptions.\n  - Broaden the Antigua and Barbuda Sales Tax (ABST) base.\n  - Support fiscal measures with a sound cash and debt management strategy focused on lengthening debt maturities and contingency planning.\n  - Close engagement with creditors and domestic suppliers and a concrete plan to resolve existing arrears and avoid new arrears.\n- Social protection:\n  - Strengthen the social safety net to provide more targeted support for the vulnerable.\n  - Centralize programs to reduce coverage gaps and avoid duplication.\n- Fiscal institutions and transparency:\n  - Enhance fiscal institutions to support the credibility of the fiscal framework.\n  - Address shortcomings in transparency and exchange of information frameworks for tax purposes to facilitate exit from the EU list of noncooperative jurisdictions for tax purposes.\n- Growth and resilience:\n  - Continue efforts to boost tourism, including by increasing flight connectivity.\n  - Strengthen active labor market policies and expand opportunities for vocational training.\n  - Increase donor support for climate change-related projects and continue investments in education and training."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Executive Board assessment",
      "content": "- Directors welcomed the robust recovery, declining debt ratio, and declining inflation rate.\n- They emphasized the need for decisive actions to address fiscal and external imbalances, improve growth prospects, and build resilience.\n- They highlighted the importance of continued close collaboration with the Fund and other development partners.\n- The next Article IV Consultation is expected to be held on the standard 12-month cycle."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Selected economic and financial indicators (annual percent change or levels as presented)",
      "content": "- Real GDP: 6.8 (2018); 4.3 (2019); -17.5 (2020); 6.6 (2021); 8.5 (2022); 5.7 (2023); 5.5 (2024); 4.2 (2025); 2.8 (2026); [2027 and 2028 columns not provided in the text block for Real GDP]\n- Nominal GDP: 9.3 (2018); 4.4 (2019); -15.5 (2020); 10.2 (2021); 12.6 (2022); 11.0 (2023); 8.6 (2024); 6.7 (2025); 4.9 (2026)\n- Consumer prices (end of period): 1.7 (2018); 0.7 (2019); 1.2 (2020); 9.2 (2021); 4.0 (2022); 2.5 (2023); 2.0 (2024)\n- Consumer prices (period average): 1.4 (2018); 1.1 (2019); 1.6 (2020); 7.5 (2021); 5.0 (2022); 2.9 (2023); 2.4 (2024)\n- Net foreign assets: 6.2 (2018); -0.9 (2019); -4.6 (2020); 18.2 (2021); 3.3 (2022); 4.1 (2023); 3.2 (2024); 2.2 (2025); 1.8 (2026)\n- Net domestic assets: 0.1 (2018); -0.6 (2019); -4.4 (2020); 8.2 (2021); 3.5 (2022); 2.7 (2023); 3.1 (2024)\n- Broad money (M2): 6.3 (2018); 0.8 (2019); -5.2 (2020); 13.9 (2021); 5.3 (2022); [2023 value not shown in the provided block]\n- Credit to private sector: 1.3 (2018); 4.8 (2019); -4.1 (2020); -2.1 (2021)\n- Central Government (percent of GDP):\n  - Primary balance: 0.0 (2018); -1.2 (2019); -3.7 (2020); -2.3 (2021); -1.7 (2022); -0.4 (2023); 0.9 (2024); 1.0 (2025)\n  - Overall balance: -2.5 (2018); -4.0 (2019); -6.2 (2020); -4.2 (2021); -1.0 (2022)\n  - Total revenue and grants: 19.8 (2018); 18.8 (2019); 19.7 (2020); 19.4 (2021); 19.3 (2022); 20.2 (2023); 20.6 (2024); 20.7 (2025); 20.8 (2026)\n  - Total expenditure: 22.3 (2018); 22.8 (2019); 25.9 (2020); 24.0 (2021); 23.5 (2022); 21.6 (2023); 21.8 (2024)\n- External sector indicators:\n  - Current account balance: -14.6 (2018); -7.2 (2019); -16.3 (2020); -15.6 (2021); -16.2 (2022); -12.4 (2023); -11.7 (2024); -11.2 (2025); -10.6 (2026); -10.3 (2027); -10.1 (2028)\n  - Trade balance: -36.1 (2018); -34.4 (2019); -28.7 (2020); -30.6 (2021); -37.7 (2022); -34.2 (2023); -33.8 (2024); -33.1 (2025); -32.6 (2026); -32.5 (2027); -32.4 (2028)\n  - Nonfactor service balance: 30.2 (2018); 35.2 (2019); 23.3 (2020); 28.9 (2021); 29.0 (2022); 31.9 (2023); 32.2 (2024); 32.5 (2025); 32.7 (2026)\n  - Gross tourism receipts: 48.4 (2018); 53.9 (2019); 29.2 (2020); 34.5 (2021); 44.0 (2022); 46.3 (2023); 49.2 (2024); 49.3 (2025); 49.7 (2026); 50.2 (2027); 50.5 (2028)\n- External public sector debt: 36.8 (2018); 39.0 (2019); 47.3 (2020); 46.7 (2021); 41.8 (2022); 42.8 (2023); 45.0 (2024); 47.0 (2025); 49.9 (2026); 51.8 (2027)\n- Savings and investment (percent of GDP):\n  - Savings: 22.9 (2018); 27.4 (2019); 17.3 (2020); 26.8 (2021); 24.7 (2022); 25.2 (2023); 26.3 (2024); 26.4 (2025); 26.1 (2026); 25.8 (2027)\n  - Investment: 37.4 (2018); 34.6 (2019); 33.6 (2020); 42.4 (2021); 40.9 (2022); 37.6 (2023); 38.0 (2024); 37.5 (2025); 37.0 (2026); 36.5 (2027); 36.2 (2028)\n- Memorandum items:\n  - Net imputed international reserves (US$ million): 329 (2018); 279 (2019); 222 (2020); 324 (2021); 346 (2022); 390 (2023); 462 (2024); 522 (2025); 566 (2026); 604 (2027); 640 (2028)\n  - Months of prospective imports: 4.5 (2018); 3.7 (2019)\n  - GDP at market prices (EC$ million): 4,333 (2018); 4,524 (2019); 3,824 (2020); 4,213 (2021); 4,746 (2022); 5,268 (2023); 5,720 (2024); 6,103 (2025); 6,403 (2026); 6,717 (2027); 7,047 (2028)\n  - Public debt stock (EC$ million) 1/, 2/: 3,783 (2018); 3,803 (2019); 3,829 (2020); 4,021 (2021); 4,134 (2022); 4,255 (2023); 4,388 (2024); 4,511 (2025); 4,623 (2026); 4,738 (2027); 4,865 (2028)\n  - Public debt stock (percent of GDP): 87.3 (2018); 84.1 (2019); 100.1 (2020); 95.4 (2021); 87.1 (2022); 80.8 (2023); 76.7 (2024); 73.9 (2025); 72.2 (2026); 70.5 (2027); 69.0 (2028)\n\nPress Release No. 24/22, January 23, 2024, IMF Executive Board Concluding Statement on the 2023 Article IV Consultation with Antigua and Barbuda.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- Antigua and Barbuda and the IMF\n- IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2024/01/23/pr2422-imf-concludes-2023-article-iv-consultation-with-antigua-and-barbuda"
    }
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    "Published: January 23, 2024",
    "Real activity is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, with growth projected at 5.7 percent, driven by a rebound in tourism and construction activity.",
    "Growth is expected to moderate and gradually converge to its long-term trend.",
    "Downside risks to growth include weaker tourism performance, unfavorable financing conditions, natural disasters, slower-than-expected growth in trading partners, and a further strengthening of the U.S. dollar.",
    "Climate change risks noted: potential for droughts and hurricanes of higher severity and frequency.",
    "Inflation has declined from 2022 peaks but remains elevated at 6.6 percent in August this year, accompanied by moderating core inflation.",
    "Price pressures are expected to dissipate in 2024.",
    "Risk: inflation may persist longer than expected from higher global commodity prices.",
    "Improved revenues, continued public sector payroll restraint, and a rise in nominal GDP brought down the primary deficit to 1.7 percent of GDP and the public debt to 87 percent of GDP in 2022.",
    "Gross financing needs remain high at 14 percent of GDP.",
    "Inability to access international capital markets continues to limit financing options.",
    "Outstanding arrears owed to external creditors and domestic suppliers persist; continued accumulation of arrears could deteriorate the fiscal position.",
    "Key fiscal indicators (percent of GDP unless otherwise noted):",
    "The financial sector is well capitalized and liquid; the share of nonperforming loans is stable.",
    "Credit growth remains weak.",
    "Directors recommended:",
    "Fiscal adjustment priorities:",
    "Social protection:",
    "Fiscal institutions and transparency:",
    "Growth and resilience:",
    "Directors welcomed the robust recovery, declining debt ratio, and declining inflation rate.",
    "They emphasized the need for decisive actions to address fiscal and external imbalances, improve growth prospects, and build resilience.",
    "They highlighted the importance of continued close collaboration with the Fund and other development partners.",
    "The next Article IV Consultation is expected to be held on the standard 12-month cycle.",
    "Real GDP: 6.8 (2018); 4.3 (2019); -17.5 (2020); 6.6 (2021); 8.5 (2022); 5.7 (2023); 5.5 (2024); 4.2 (2025); 2.8 (2026); [2027 and 2028 columns not provided in the text block for Real GDP]",
    "Nominal GDP: 9.3 (2018); 4.4 (2019); -15.5 (2020); 10.2 (2021); 12.6 (2022); 11.0 (2023); 8.6 (2024); 6.7 (2025); 4.9 (2026)",
    "Consumer prices (end of period): 1.7 (2018); 0.7 (2019); 1.2 (2020); 9.2 (2021); 4.0 (2022); 2.5 (2023); 2.0 (2024)",
    "Consumer prices (period average): 1.4 (2018); 1.1 (2019); 1.6 (2020); 7.5 (2021); 5.0 (2022); 2.9 (2023); 2.4 (2024)",
    "Net foreign assets: 6.2 (2018); -0.9 (2019); -4.6 (2020); 18.2 (2021); 3.3 (2022); 4.1 (2023); 3.2 (2024); 2.2 (2025); 1.8 (2026)",
    "Net domestic assets: 0.1 (2018); -0.6 (2019); -4.4 (2020); 8.2 (2021); 3.5 (2022); 2.7 (2023); 3.1 (2024)",
    "Broad money (M2): 6.3 (2018); 0.8 (2019); -5.2 (2020); 13.9 (2021); 5.3 (2022); [2023 value not shown in the provided block]",
    "Credit to private sector: 1.3 (2018); 4.8 (2019); -4.1 (2020); -2.1 (2021)",
    "Central Government (percent of GDP):",
    "External sector indicators:",
    "External public sector debt: 36.8 (2018); 39.0 (2019); 47.3 (2020); 46.7 (2021); 41.8 (2022); 42.8 (2023); 45.0 (2024); 47.0 (2025); 49.9 (2026); 51.8 (2027)",
    "Savings and investment (percent of GDP):",
    "Memorandum items:",
    "[Antigua and Barbuda and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/ATG/index.htm)",
    "[IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)",
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