{
  "title": "IMF Executive Board Concludes 2023 Article IV Consultation with Cambodia",
  "publication": "IMF News, January 31, 2024",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2024/01/30/pr2431-cambodia-imf-executive-board-concludes-2023-article-iv-consultation",
  "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2024/01/30/pr2431-cambodia-imf-executive-board-concludes-2023-article-iv-consultation",
  "overlayPath": "/en/news/articles/2024/01/30/pr2431-cambodia-imf-executive-board-concludes-2023-article-iv-consultation/index.md",
  "summary": "The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation with Cambodia.",
  "publishDate": "2024-01-31",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Macroeconomic outlook and recent performance",
      "content": "- Cambodia achieved GDP growth of 5.2 percent in 2022 and is projected to grow by 5.3 percent in 2023.\n- Projected GDP growth for 2024–2028:\n  - 2024: 6.0\n  - 2025: 6.4\n  - 2026: 6.5\n  - 2027: 6.2\n  - 2028: 6.3\n- Sectoral drivers and developments:\n  - Manufacturing added over 3 percent to real GDP in the recovery.\n  - Non-garment goods exports expanded, with electronics exports (particularly solar panels) showing resilience and helping offset a decline in garment exports.\n  - Services rebounded strongly; tourism is recovering and was boosted by the 2023 South-East Asia Games.\n  - Agriculture faced challenges from weather and rising costs.\n- Inflation dynamics:\n  - Inflation was volatile, declined from a peak in June last year, and rebounded to 3.9% in October due to higher food and fuel prices.\n- Monetary and financial conditions:\n  - The central bank gradually unwound pandemic-era support measures, including increasing reserve requirements for foreign currencies.\n  - Broad money annual percent change: 15.3 (2020), 8.2 (2021), 11.0 (2022), 12.3 (2023), 12.8 (2024), 8.3 (2025).\n  - Private sector credit annual percent change: 17.2 (2020), 23.6 (2021), 13.0 (2022).\n  - Velocity of money 1/: 0.8 (2020), 0.7 (2021), 0.6 (2022).\n- External sector:\n  - Exports, f.o.b. (in millions of dollars): 18,470 (2020), 19,527 (2021), 23,179 (2022), 23,387 (2023), 25,229 (2024), 27,361 (2025), 29,686 (2026), 32,209 (2027), 34,944 (2028).\n  - Imports, f.o.b. (in millions of dollars): -20,993 (2020), -30,726 (2021), -32,005 (2022), -27,360 (2023), -30,760 (2024), -33,226 (2025), -36,004 (2026), -39,075 (2027), -42,468 (2028).\n  - Current account (including official transfers) (in millions of dollars): -870 (2020), -11,179 (2021), -7,535 (2022), -647 (2023), -1,954 (2024), -2,141 (2025), -2,312 (2026), -2,521 (2027), -2,860 (2028).\n  - Gross official reserves 3/ (in millions of dollars): 21,334 (2020), 21,119 (2021), 17,805 (2022), 20,869 (2023), 23,348 (2024), 25,881 (2025), 28,534 (2026), 31,478 (2027), 34,583 (2028).\n  - Gross official reserves (in months of prospective imports): 7.8 (2020), 7.3 (2021), 7.4 (2022)."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Fiscal developments and projections",
      "content": "- Fiscal performance:\n  - Fiscal positions improved in 2022 due to stronger-than-expected revenue performance.\n  - The fiscal deficit is expected to widen in 2023 because of:\n    - Extended targeted social supports to households and firms affected by COVID-19 and the cost-of-living crisis.\n    - Increased spending associated with the 2023 South-East Asia Games and the General Election.\n    - Finalization of incomplete infrastructure projects from 2022.\n  - From 2024, the deficit is projected to narrow as temporary support measures (including cash transfers) are scaled back while retaining targeted fiscal support through social protection system reform.\n- Public finance aggregates (in percent of GDP):\n  - Revenue: 21.6 (2020), 23.0 (2021), 23.2 (2022), 23.3 (2023), 23.4 (2024), 23.5 (2025).\n  - Domestic revenue: 22.0 (2020), 20.0 (2021), 22.2 (2022), 21.7 (2023), 21.9 (2024), 22.1 (2025).\n  - Of which: Tax revenue: 19.7 (2020), 18.0 (2021), 18.9 (2022), 19.1 (2023), 19.2 (2024), 19.3 (2025), 19.4 (2026), 19.6 (2027).\n  - Grants: 1.9 (2020), 1.6 (2021), 1.8 (2022), 1.3 (2023), 1.2 (2024).\n  - Expenditure: 27.3 (2020), 28.6 (2021), 26.6 (2022), 25.2 (2023), 26.0 (2024), 26.3 (2025), 26.1 (2026).\n  - Expense: 17.1 (2020), 17.6 (2021), 17.5 (2022).\n  - Net lending (+)/borrowing(-): -3.4 (2020), -7.1 (2021), -1.0 (2022), -3.6 (2023), -2.0 (2024), -2.7 (2025), -2.9 (2026), -2.6 (2027).\n  - Net lending (+)/borrowing(-) excluding grants: -5.3 (2020), -8.6 (2021), -4.9 (2022), -3.3 (2023), -4.0 (2024), -4.2 (2025), -3.8 (2026).\n  - Net incurrence of liabilities 2/: 4.0 (2020), 3.4 (2021), 3.2 (2022), 2.8 (2023), 2.7 (2024).\n  - Total public debt (in percent of GDP): 34.4 (2020), 35.9 (2021), 34.8 (2022), 35.8 (2023), 36.3 (2024), 36.5 (2025), 36.4 (2026), 36.8 (2027)."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Risks and vulnerabilities",
      "content": "- Near-term downside risks:\n  - Weaker-than-expected growth in the U.S. (accounting for over 40 percent of Cambodia's exports) and China.\n  - U.S. monetary tightening and tighter global financial conditions.\n  - High levels of private debt domestically.\n- Medium-term and structural risks:\n  - Geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainties, including trade fragmentation.\n  - Structural decline in growth from China.\n  - Commodity price fluctuations and climate events.\n- Debt and external vulnerabilities:\n  - Public external debt (in millions of dollars): 8,810 (2020), 9,505 (2021), 9,971 (2022), 10,926 (2023), 11,805 (2024), 12,727 (2025), 13,627 (2026), 14,701 (2027), 15,937 (2028).\n  - Public debt service (in millions of dollars): 365 (2020), 397 (2021), 427 (2022), 413 (2023), 430 (2024), 446 (2025), 461 (2026), 482 (2027), 503 (2028).\n  - Public debt service (in percent of exports of goods and services): 2.0 (2020), 1.7 (2021), 1.5 (2022), 1.4 (2023).\n  - The risk of debt distress remains low, though vulnerabilities arise from shocks to exports and growth."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Executive Board assessment and policy recommendations",
      "content": "- Overall assessment:\n  - The economy is continuing to recover from the pandemic, driven by expansion of non-garment goods exports and a rebound in tourism; garment exports remain weak.\n  - The compositional shift in tourist arrivals yields less income per tourist compared to the pre-pandemic era.\n- Fiscal policy recommendations:\n  - Fiscal policy in 2023 was appropriately expansionary; fiscal consolidation should begin as recovery progresses.\n  - The fiscal stance should return to neutral in 2024 as pandemic-related spending needs subside.\n  - Over the medium term, strengthen the tax base and tax and customs administration to safeguard revenues, given revenue erosion from tax incentives and an already low revenue-to-GDP ratio.\n  - Improve evaluation and execution of public investments to ensure spending supports economic development.\n- Monetary and financial sector recommendations:\n  - Continue normalizing monetary policy toward the pre-pandemic setting.\n  - Phasing out of pandemic-related forbearance measures and the increase of USD reserve requirement are welcome.\n  - Ensure NPLs are adequately provisioned for.\n  - Allow credit growth to recalibrate after recent rapid expansion, reflecting normalization of financial conditions and high private sector indebtedness.\n  - Continue improving the supervisory framework and data gathering and analysis.\n  - Strengthen legal and operational frameworks for corporate insolvency and bank resolution.\n- Structural and governance reforms:\n  - Substantial reforms needed to sustain medium-term improvements in living standards:\n    - Improve both quality and quantity of human capital to adapt as comparative advantage in labor cost diminishes.\n    - Invest in key infrastructure: transportation, energy, logistics, and telecommunication to support diversification and scale.\n  - Governance and anti-corruption reforms to attract broader FDI and sustain high growth:\n    - Strengthen frameworks on asset declarations, whistleblower protection, and access to information.\n    - Allocate adequate resources and authorities to oversight and investigative bodies to reduce the cost of doing business and improve attractiveness for tourists and investors."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key economy-wide statistics and memoranda",
      "content": "- Nominal GDP (in billions of Riels): 105,892 (2020), 110,506 (2021), 121,030 (2022), 131,086 (2023), 142,221 (2024), 155,128 (2025), 169,582 (2026), 184,812 (2027), 201,549 (2028).\n- Nominal GDP (in millions of U.S. dollars): 25,771 (2020), 26,601 (2021), 28,818 (2022), 30,872 (2023), 33,130 (2024), 35,744 (2025), 38,649 (2026), 41,662 (2027), 44,941 (2028).\n\nExecutive Board of the International Monetary Fund press release, January 31, 2024.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg\n- The Executive Board\n- Cambodia and the IMF\n- IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- [[1]](https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2024/01/30/EditorPage.aspx?da=core&di=0&ed=FIELD1358669999&fbd=1&fld=%7B5E30EA8C-0335-4122-B707-513176E32724%7D&hdl=H1358692417&id=%7B3551094F-072C-4F6D-81BF-7EDB6AB4A695%7D&la=en&mo=&pe=0&so=%2Fsitecore%2Fsystem%2FSettings%2FHtml+Editor+Profiles%2FRich+Text+Full&vs=)\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2024/01/30/pr2431-cambodia-imf-executive-board-concludes-2023-article-iv-consultation"
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "[Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2024/01/30/pr2431-cambodia-imf-executive-board-concludes-2023-article-iv-consultation/index.md)",
    "[Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2024/01/30/pr2431-cambodia-imf-executive-board-concludes-2023-article-iv-consultation/index.json)",
    "[Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2024/01/30/pr2431-cambodia-imf-executive-board-concludes-2023-article-iv-consultation/bundle-manifest.json)",
    "Published: January 31, 2024",
    "Cambodia achieved GDP growth of 5.2 percent in 2022 and is projected to grow by 5.3 percent in 2023.",
    "Projected GDP growth for 2024–2028:",
    "Sectoral drivers and developments:",
    "Inflation dynamics:",
    "Monetary and financial conditions:",
    "External sector:",
    "Fiscal performance:",
    "Public finance aggregates (in percent of GDP):",
    "Near-term downside risks:",
    "Medium-term and structural risks:",
    "Debt and external vulnerabilities:",
    "Overall assessment:",
    "Fiscal policy recommendations:",
    "Monetary and financial sector recommendations:",
    "Structural and governance reforms:",
    "Nominal GDP (in billions of Riels): 105,892 (2020), 110,506 (2021), 121,030 (2022), 131,086 (2023), 142,221 (2024), 155,128 (2025), 169,582 (2026), 184,812 (2027), 201,549 (2028).",
    "Nominal GDP (in millions of U.S. dollars): 25,771 (2020), 26,601 (2021), 28,818 (2022), 30,872 (2023), 33,130 (2024), 35,744 (2025), 38,649 (2026), 41,662 (2027), 44,941 (2028).",
    "[https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg](https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg)",
    "[The Executive Board](https://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/memdir/eds.aspx)",
    "[Cambodia and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/KHM/index.htm)",
    "[IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)",
    "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[[1]](https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2024/01/30/EditorPage.aspx?da=core&di=0&ed=FIELD1358669999&fbd=1&fld=%7B5E30EA8C-0335-4122-B707-513176E32724%7D&hdl=H1358692417&id=%7B3551094F-072C-4F6D-81BF-7EDB6AB4A695%7D&la=en&mo=&pe=0&so=%2Fsitecore%2Fsystem%2FSettings%2FHtml+Editor+Profiles%2FRich+Text+Full&vs=)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
  ],
  "alternates": {
    "markdown": "/en/news/articles/2024/01/30/pr2431-cambodia-imf-executive-board-concludes-2023-article-iv-consultation/index.md",
    "json": "/en/news/articles/2024/01/30/pr2431-cambodia-imf-executive-board-concludes-2023-article-iv-consultation/index.json",
    "bundleManifest": "/en/news/articles/2024/01/30/pr2431-cambodia-imf-executive-board-concludes-2023-article-iv-consultation/bundle-manifest.json"
  },
  "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-26T02:42:48.097Z"
}