{
  "title": "IMF Executive Board Concludes Post Financing Assessment with Nigeria",
  "publication": "IMF News, February 9, 2024",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2024/02/09/pr2443-nigeria-imf-exec-board-concludes-pfa",
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  "summary": "On January 12, 2024, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Post Financing Assessment (PFA) and endorsed the Staff Appraisal on a lapse-of-time basis. Nigeria’s capacity to repay the Fund is adequate.",
  "publishDate": "2024-02-09",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Executive summary",
      "content": "- On January 12, 2024, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Post Financing Assessment (PFA) and endorsed the Staff Appraisal on a lapse-of-time basis.\n- Staff assessment: Nigeria’s capacity to repay the Fund is adequate under the baseline.\n- The new administration implemented major structural reforms: removing fuel subsidies and unifying the various official foreign exchange windows.\n- Authorities have taken measures to ease the impact of rising inflation: released cereals from the grain reserve, provided subsidized fertilizer to farmers, capped retail fuel and electricity prices (partially reversing the fuel subsidy removal), implemented a civil service wage award, and suspended the VAT on diesel.\n- Economic and social challenges highlighted: growth barely keeping up with population dynamics; low revenue collection; persistent security concerns affecting agriculture and food security; latest estimates show 25 million (13 percent of the population) as food insecure; poverty rate was 37 percent in 2022."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Economic outlook and projections",
      "content": "- Growth forecasts:\n  - Real GDP: 3.3 (2022 Act.), 2.9 (2023 Est.), 3.0 (2024 Proj.), 3.1 (2025 Proj.)\n  - Oil and Gas GDP: -19.2 (2022 Act.), 1.4 (2023 Est.), 2.5 (2024 Proj.), 3.8 (2025 Proj.)\n  - Non-oil non-agriculture GDP: 6.2 (2022 Act.), 3.4 (2023 Est.)\n  - Production of crude oil (million barrels per day): 1.38 (2022 Act.), 1.46 (2023 Est.), 1.47 (2024 Proj.), 1.52 (2025 Proj.)\n- Inflation and prices:\n  - GDP deflator: 11.3 (2022 Act.), 17.8 (2023 Est.), 20.8 (2024 Proj.), 12.8 (2025 Proj.)\n  - Consumer price index (annual average): 18.8 (2022 Act.), 25.0 (2023 Est.), 25.2 (2024 Proj.), 14.8 (2025 Proj.)\n  - Consumer price index (end of period): 21.3 (2022 Act.), 31.1 (2023 Est.), 17.1 (2024 Proj.), 15.0 (2025 Proj.)\n  - Headline inflation reached 27 percent year-on-year in October (food inflation 32 percent).\n- External sector:\n  - Current account balance: 0.2 (2022 Act.), 0.5 (2023 Est.), 0.7 (2024 Proj.), 0.6 (2025 Proj.)\n  - Price of Nigerian oil (US$ per barrel): 99.0 (2022 Act.), 82.4 (2023 Est.), 81.2 (2024 Proj.), 77.4 (2025 Proj.)\n  - External debt outstanding (US$ billions): 119.9 (2022 Act.), 110.1 (2023 Est.), 109.1 (2024 Proj.), 114.0 (2025 Proj.)\n  - Gross international reserves (US$ billions, CBN definition): 36.6 (2022 Act.), 27.9 (2023 Est.), 23.8 (2024 Proj.), 26.3 (2025 Proj.)\n  - Gross international reserves (equivalent months of imports of G&Ss): 6.6 (2022 Act.), 4.4 (2023 Est.)\n  - Note: Based on the IMF definition, the gross international reserves are $8.2 billion lower in 2023.\n- Other macro indicators:\n  - Nominal GDP at market prices (trillions of naira): 202.4 (2022 Act.), 245.3 (2023 Est.), 305.4 (2024 Proj.), 355.2 (2025 Proj.)\n  - Nominal non-oil GDP: 190.4 (2022 Act.), 229.8 (2023 Est.), 278.9 (2024 Proj.), 326.7 (2025 Proj.)\n  - Nominal GDP per capita (US$): 2,202 (2022 Act.), 1,699 (2023 Est.), 1,219 (2024 Proj.), 1,271 (2025 Proj.)\n  - Investment and savings (Percent of GDP): Gross national savings: 20.2 (2022 Act.), 19.7 (2023 Est.), 21.8 (2024 Proj.)\n  - Investment (Percent of GDP): 19.9 (2022 Act.), 19.2 (2023 Est.), 19.5 (2024 Proj.), 3.6 (2025 Proj.) — and additional investment rows show 17.5, 16.1, 16.3, 17.6 (table entries preserved)."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Fiscal and monetary policy assessment",
      "content": "- Fiscal:\n  - Consolidated government operations:\n    - Total revenues and grants: 9.1 (2022 Act.), 9.4 (2023 Est.), 10.8 (2024 Proj.), 10.9 (2025 Proj.)\n    - Of which: oil and gas revenue: 4.3 (2022 Act.), 5.4 (2023 Est.), 5.1 (2024 Proj.)\n    - Of which: non-oil revenue: 4.8 (2022 Act.), 4.9 (2023 Est.), 5.3 (2024 Proj.), 5.8 (2025 Proj.)\n    - Total expenditure and net lending: 14.5 (2022 Act.), 15.1 (2023 Est.), 15.5 (2024 Proj.)\n    - Of which: fuel subsidies: 2.2 (2022 Act.), 0.9 (2023 Est.), 0.8 (2024 Proj.), 0.1 (2025 Proj.)\n    - Overall balance: -5.4 (2022 Act.), -4.3 (2023 Est.), -4.5 (2024 Proj.)\n    - Non-oil primary balance: -6.9 (2022 Act.), -7.0 (2023 Est.), -6.6 (2024 Proj.), -6.4 (2025 Proj.)\n    - Public gross debt: 38.7 (2022 Act.), 45.6 (2023 Est.), 44.5 (2024 Proj.), 44.3 (2025 Proj.)\n    - Of which: Fx debt: 8.5 (2022 Act.), 15.6 (2023 Est.), 16.7 (2024 Proj.), 17.9 (2025 Proj.)\n    - FGN interest payments (percent of FGN revenue): 90.4 (2022 Act.), 83.4 (2023 Est.), 81.1 (2024 Proj.), 79.2 (2025 Proj.)\n  - Authorities are developing an ambitious domestic revenue mobilization agenda; envisaged reduction in the overall deficit in 2024 would help contain debt vulnerabilities and eliminate the need for CBN financing.\n- Monetary:\n  - The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has set price stability as the core objective and is pursuing monetary tightening and actions to mop up excess liquidity.\n  - Recommendation: Continuing to raise the monetary policy rate until it is positive in real terms would be an important signal.\n  - The CBN has dropped its previous role in development finance and the new CBN team has committed to price stability.\n  - Settling the CBN’s overdue dollar obligations will help rebuild confidence in the central bank and the naira.\n  - Sharing comprehensive information on Nigeria’s reserves position would facilitate a more complete assessment of the external situation.\n  - The authorities are exploring options to strengthen Nigeria’s reserve position, though a careful assessment of unintended consequences is needed in some cases."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy recommendations and reforms",
      "content": "- Fiscal and social policy:\n  - Phase out fuel and electricity subsidies completely; they are costly and do not reach those that most need government support.\n  - Continue focus on revenue mobilization and digitalization to improve public service delivery and safeguard fiscal sustainability.\n  - Provide temporary and targeted support to the most vulnerable in the form of social transfers given the ongoing cost-of-living crisis.\n- Monetary and external:\n  - Continue monetary tightening until the policy rate is positive in real terms.\n  - Assess carefully options to strengthen reserves and settle CBN overdue dollar obligations.\n  - Share comprehensive reserves information for better assessment.\n- Structural:\n  - Implement a comprehensive reform agenda to materially improve the medium-term outlook, enabling much improved growth if successfully developed and implemented.\n  - Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee has been appointed to make proposals for raising domestic revenue to support investments in infrastructure, health, and education."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Risks, vulnerabilities, and downside scenario",
      "content": "- Key risks:\n  - Difficult external environment: scarce external financing (market and official) and surging global food prices due to conflict and geo-economic fragmentation.\n  - Wide-ranging domestic challenges: security concerns in northern Nigeria affecting agriculture and food security; low reserves; very limited fiscal space.\n  - Per-capita growth has stalled; poverty and food insecurity are high (25 million food insecure; 37 percent poverty rate in 2022).\n- Downside scenario:\n  - In a downside scenario, difficult trade-offs may arise between urgent humanitarian needs and debt service, including to the Fund.\n  - Response to such circumstances would require aggressive monetary tightening and fiscal adjustment combined with support from development partners to restore macroeconomic stability."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key statistics (selected exact figures preserved)",
      "content": "- Growth and production:\n  - Real GDP: 3.3 (2022), 2.9 (2023), 3.0 (2024), 3.1 (2025)\n  - Production of crude oil (million barrels per day): 1.38 (2022), 1.46 (2023), 1.47 (2024), 1.52 (2025)\n- Prices and inflation:\n  - Headline inflation: 27 percent year-on-year in October; food inflation 32 percent\n  - Consumer price index (annual average): 18.8 (2022), 25.0 (2023), 25.2 (2024), 14.8 (2025)\n- Fiscal aggregates:\n  - Total revenues and grants (percent of GDP): 9.1 (2022), 9.4 (2023), 10.8 (2024), 10.9 (2025)\n  - Total expenditure and net lending (percent of GDP): 14.5 (2022), 15.1 (2023), 15.5 (2024)\n  - Public gross debt: 38.7 (2022), 45.6 (2023), 44.5 (2024), 44.3 (2025)\n  - Of which: Fx debt: 8.5 (2022), 15.6 (2023), 16.7 (2024), 17.9 (2025)\n- External sector and reserves:\n  - Gross international reserves (US$ billions, CBN definition): 36.6 (2022), 27.9 (2023), 23.8 (2024), 26.3 (2025)\n  - External debt outstanding (US$ billions): 119.9 (2022), 110.1 (2023), 109.1 (2024), 114.0 (2025)\n- Social indicators:\n  - Food insecure: 25 million (13 percent of the population)\n  - Poverty rate: 37 percent in 2022\n\nSource: IMF Executive Board Concludes Post Financing Assessment with Nigeria (Press Release No. 24/43), February 9, 2024.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg\n- The Executive Board\n- Nigeria and the IMF\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- IMF lending program\n- here\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2024/02/09/pr2443-nigeria-imf-exec-board-concludes-pfa"
    }
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    "Published: February 9, 2024",
    "On January 12, 2024, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Post Financing Assessment (PFA) and endorsed the Staff Appraisal on a lapse-of-time basis.",
    "Staff assessment: Nigeria’s capacity to repay the Fund is adequate under the baseline.",
    "The new administration implemented major structural reforms: removing fuel subsidies and unifying the various official foreign exchange windows.",
    "Authorities have taken measures to ease the impact of rising inflation: released cereals from the grain reserve, provided subsidized fertilizer to farmers, capped retail fuel and electricity prices (partially reversing the fuel subsidy removal), implemented a civil service wage award, and suspended the VAT on diesel.",
    "Economic and social challenges highlighted: growth barely keeping up with population dynamics; low revenue collection; persistent security concerns affecting agriculture and food security; latest estimates show 25 million (13 percent of the population) as food insecure; poverty rate was 37 percent in 2022.",
    "Growth forecasts:",
    "Inflation and prices:",
    "External sector:",
    "Other macro indicators:",
    "Fiscal:",
    "Monetary:",
    "Fiscal and social policy:",
    "Monetary and external:",
    "Structural:",
    "Key risks:",
    "Downside scenario:",
    "Growth and production:",
    "Prices and inflation:",
    "Fiscal aggregates:",
    "External sector and reserves:",
    "Social indicators:",
    "[https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg](https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg)",
    "[The Executive Board](https://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/memdir/eds.aspx)",
    "[Nigeria and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/NGA/index.htm)",
    "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[IMF lending program](https://www.imf.org/en/About/Factsheets/IMF-Lending)",
    "[here](https://www.imf.org/en/About/Factsheets/Sheets/2023/Post-Financing-Assessment-PFA)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
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