## IMF Executive Board Concludes Post Financing Assessment with Nigeria _IMF News, February 9, 2024_ ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [IMF Executive Board Concludes Post Financing Assessment with Nigeria](https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2024/02/09/pr2443-nigeria-imf-exec-board-concludes-pfa) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2024/02/09/pr2443-nigeria-imf-exec-board-concludes-pfa/index.md) - [Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2024/02/09/pr2443-nigeria-imf-exec-board-concludes-pfa/index.json) - [Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2024/02/09/pr2443-nigeria-imf-exec-board-concludes-pfa/bundle-manifest.json) ## Bibliographic details - Published: February 9, 2024 --- ### Executive summary - On January 12, 2024, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Post Financing Assessment (PFA) and endorsed the Staff Appraisal on a lapse-of-time basis. - Staff assessment: Nigeria’s capacity to repay the Fund is adequate under the baseline. - The new administration implemented major structural reforms: removing fuel subsidies and unifying the various official foreign exchange windows. - Authorities have taken measures to ease the impact of rising inflation: released cereals from the grain reserve, provided subsidized fertilizer to farmers, capped retail fuel and electricity prices (partially reversing the fuel subsidy removal), implemented a civil service wage award, and suspended the VAT on diesel. - Economic and social challenges highlighted: growth barely keeping up with population dynamics; low revenue collection; persistent security concerns affecting agriculture and food security; latest estimates show 25 million (13 percent of the population) as food insecure; poverty rate was 37 percent in 2022. ### Economic outlook and projections - Growth forecasts: - Real GDP: 3.3 (2022 Act.), 2.9 (2023 Est.), 3.0 (2024 Proj.), 3.1 (2025 Proj.) - Oil and Gas GDP: -19.2 (2022 Act.), 1.4 (2023 Est.), 2.5 (2024 Proj.), 3.8 (2025 Proj.) - Non-oil non-agriculture GDP: 6.2 (2022 Act.), 3.4 (2023 Est.) - Production of crude oil (million barrels per day): 1.38 (2022 Act.), 1.46 (2023 Est.), 1.47 (2024 Proj.), 1.52 (2025 Proj.) - Inflation and prices: - GDP deflator: 11.3 (2022 Act.), 17.8 (2023 Est.), 20.8 (2024 Proj.), 12.8 (2025 Proj.) - Consumer price index (annual average): 18.8 (2022 Act.), 25.0 (2023 Est.), 25.2 (2024 Proj.), 14.8 (2025 Proj.) - Consumer price index (end of period): 21.3 (2022 Act.), 31.1 (2023 Est.), 17.1 (2024 Proj.), 15.0 (2025 Proj.) - Headline inflation reached 27 percent year-on-year in October (food inflation 32 percent). - External sector: - Current account balance: 0.2 (2022 Act.), 0.5 (2023 Est.), 0.7 (2024 Proj.), 0.6 (2025 Proj.) - Price of Nigerian oil (US$ per barrel): 99.0 (2022 Act.), 82.4 (2023 Est.), 81.2 (2024 Proj.), 77.4 (2025 Proj.) - External debt outstanding (US$ billions): 119.9 (2022 Act.), 110.1 (2023 Est.), 109.1 (2024 Proj.), 114.0 (2025 Proj.) - Gross international reserves (US$ billions, CBN definition): 36.6 (2022 Act.), 27.9 (2023 Est.), 23.8 (2024 Proj.), 26.3 (2025 Proj.) - Gross international reserves (equivalent months of imports of G&Ss): 6.6 (2022 Act.), 4.4 (2023 Est.) - Note: Based on the IMF definition, the gross international reserves are $8.2 billion lower in 2023. - Other macro indicators: - Nominal GDP at market prices (trillions of naira): 202.4 (2022 Act.), 245.3 (2023 Est.), 305.4 (2024 Proj.), 355.2 (2025 Proj.) - Nominal non-oil GDP: 190.4 (2022 Act.), 229.8 (2023 Est.), 278.9 (2024 Proj.), 326.7 (2025 Proj.) - Nominal GDP per capita (US$): 2,202 (2022 Act.), 1,699 (2023 Est.), 1,219 (2024 Proj.), 1,271 (2025 Proj.) - Investment and savings (Percent of GDP): Gross national savings: 20.2 (2022 Act.), 19.7 (2023 Est.), 21.8 (2024 Proj.) - Investment (Percent of GDP): 19.9 (2022 Act.), 19.2 (2023 Est.), 19.5 (2024 Proj.), 3.6 (2025 Proj.) — and additional investment rows show 17.5, 16.1, 16.3, 17.6 (table entries preserved). ### Fiscal and monetary policy assessment - Fiscal: - Consolidated government operations: - Total revenues and grants: 9.1 (2022 Act.), 9.4 (2023 Est.), 10.8 (2024 Proj.), 10.9 (2025 Proj.) - Of which: oil and gas revenue: 4.3 (2022 Act.), 5.4 (2023 Est.), 5.1 (2024 Proj.) - Of which: non-oil revenue: 4.8 (2022 Act.), 4.9 (2023 Est.), 5.3 (2024 Proj.), 5.8 (2025 Proj.) - Total expenditure and net lending: 14.5 (2022 Act.), 15.1 (2023 Est.), 15.5 (2024 Proj.) - Of which: fuel subsidies: 2.2 (2022 Act.), 0.9 (2023 Est.), 0.8 (2024 Proj.), 0.1 (2025 Proj.) - Overall balance: -5.4 (2022 Act.), -4.3 (2023 Est.), -4.5 (2024 Proj.) - Non-oil primary balance: -6.9 (2022 Act.), -7.0 (2023 Est.), -6.6 (2024 Proj.), -6.4 (2025 Proj.) - Public gross debt: 38.7 (2022 Act.), 45.6 (2023 Est.), 44.5 (2024 Proj.), 44.3 (2025 Proj.) - Of which: Fx debt: 8.5 (2022 Act.), 15.6 (2023 Est.), 16.7 (2024 Proj.), 17.9 (2025 Proj.) - FGN interest payments (percent of FGN revenue): 90.4 (2022 Act.), 83.4 (2023 Est.), 81.1 (2024 Proj.), 79.2 (2025 Proj.) - Authorities are developing an ambitious domestic revenue mobilization agenda; envisaged reduction in the overall deficit in 2024 would help contain debt vulnerabilities and eliminate the need for CBN financing. - Monetary: - The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has set price stability as the core objective and is pursuing monetary tightening and actions to mop up excess liquidity. - Recommendation: Continuing to raise the monetary policy rate until it is positive in real terms would be an important signal. - The CBN has dropped its previous role in development finance and the new CBN team has committed to price stability. - Settling the CBN’s overdue dollar obligations will help rebuild confidence in the central bank and the naira. - Sharing comprehensive information on Nigeria’s reserves position would facilitate a more complete assessment of the external situation. - The authorities are exploring options to strengthen Nigeria’s reserve position, though a careful assessment of unintended consequences is needed in some cases. ### Policy recommendations and reforms - Fiscal and social policy: - Phase out fuel and electricity subsidies completely; they are costly and do not reach those that most need government support. - Continue focus on revenue mobilization and digitalization to improve public service delivery and safeguard fiscal sustainability. - Provide temporary and targeted support to the most vulnerable in the form of social transfers given the ongoing cost-of-living crisis. - Monetary and external: - Continue monetary tightening until the policy rate is positive in real terms. - Assess carefully options to strengthen reserves and settle CBN overdue dollar obligations. - Share comprehensive reserves information for better assessment. - Structural: - Implement a comprehensive reform agenda to materially improve the medium-term outlook, enabling much improved growth if successfully developed and implemented. - Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee has been appointed to make proposals for raising domestic revenue to support investments in infrastructure, health, and education. ### Risks, vulnerabilities, and downside scenario - Key risks: - Difficult external environment: scarce external financing (market and official) and surging global food prices due to conflict and geo-economic fragmentation. - Wide-ranging domestic challenges: security concerns in northern Nigeria affecting agriculture and food security; low reserves; very limited fiscal space. - Per-capita growth has stalled; poverty and food insecurity are high (25 million food insecure; 37 percent poverty rate in 2022). - Downside scenario: - In a downside scenario, difficult trade-offs may arise between urgent humanitarian needs and debt service, including to the Fund. - Response to such circumstances would require aggressive monetary tightening and fiscal adjustment combined with support from development partners to restore macroeconomic stability. ### Key statistics (selected exact figures preserved) - Growth and production: - Real GDP: 3.3 (2022), 2.9 (2023), 3.0 (2024), 3.1 (2025) - Production of crude oil (million barrels per day): 1.38 (2022), 1.46 (2023), 1.47 (2024), 1.52 (2025) - Prices and inflation: - Headline inflation: 27 percent year-on-year in October; food inflation 32 percent - Consumer price index (annual average): 18.8 (2022), 25.0 (2023), 25.2 (2024), 14.8 (2025) - Fiscal aggregates: - Total revenues and grants (percent of GDP): 9.1 (2022), 9.4 (2023), 10.8 (2024), 10.9 (2025) - Total expenditure and net lending (percent of GDP): 14.5 (2022), 15.1 (2023), 15.5 (2024) - Public gross debt: 38.7 (2022), 45.6 (2023), 44.5 (2024), 44.3 (2025) - Of which: Fx debt: 8.5 (2022), 15.6 (2023), 16.7 (2024), 17.9 (2025) - External sector and reserves: - Gross international reserves (US$ billions, CBN definition): 36.6 (2022), 27.9 (2023), 23.8 (2024), 26.3 (2025) - External debt outstanding (US$ billions): 119.9 (2022), 110.1 (2023), 109.1 (2024), 114.0 (2025) - Social indicators: - Food insecure: 25 million (13 percent of the population) - Poverty rate: 37 percent in 2022 *Source: IMF Executive Board Concludes Post Financing Assessment with Nigeria (Press Release No. 24/43), February 9, 2024.* --- ## References - [https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg](https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg) - [The Executive Board](https://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/memdir/eds.aspx) - [Nigeria and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/NGA/index.htm) - [Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews) - [PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/) - [IMF lending program](https://www.imf.org/en/About/Factsheets/IMF-Lending) - [here](https://www.imf.org/en/About/Factsheets/Sheets/2023/Post-Financing-Assessment-PFA) - [https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home) _Source: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2024/02/09/pr2443-nigeria-imf-exec-board-concludes-pfa_