{
  "title": "IMF Executive Board Completes the Third Review of the Extended Fund Facility Arrangement for Ukraine",
  "publication": "IMF News, March 21, 2024",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2024/03/21/pr2496-ukraine-imf-executive-board-completes-third-review-eff",
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  "summary": "The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) today completed the third Review of the EFF arrangement for Ukraine.",
  "publishDate": "2024-03-21",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Review completion and immediate financing",
      "content": "- The Executive Board completed the third Review of the extended arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for Ukraine on March 21, 2024.\n- The completion enables the authorities to immediately draw US$880 million (SDR 663.9 million), to be channeled for budget support.\n- Ukraine’s 48-month EFF arrangement has access of SDR 11.6 billion (equivalent to US$15.6 billion, or about 577 percent of quota) and was approved on March 31, 2023; the arrangement forms part of a US$122 billion support package for Ukraine."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Program performance and compliance",
      "content": "- The authorities met all structural benchmarks through end-February.\n- All indicative targets were met.\n- All but one quantitative performance criterion for end-December were met; the missed performance criterion related to tax revenues and was missed by a minor amount.\n- The Board approved a waiver for non-observance of the December performance criterion on tax revenues."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Macroeconomic outturns and outlook",
      "content": "- The Ukrainian economy showed resilience in 2023 with robust growth outturns, continued sharp disinflation, and maintenance of adequate reserves.\n- Outlook for 2024: growth expected to soften to 3-4 percent due to uncertainty about the ongoing war and as supply constraints become more binding.\n- The outlook remains subject to exceptionally high downside risks from:\n  - war-related factors;\n  - potential shortfalls in external financing;\n  - socio-economic impacts of policies that may be required if shocks materialize."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy priorities and recommendations (from the Managing Director’s statement)",
      "content": "- Ensure timely and predictable disbursement of external financing committed by all donors to safeguard macroeconomic stability.\n- Combine external concessional disbursements with strong domestic resource mobilization to meet financing needs and secure fiscal and debt sustainability.\n- Strengthen revenue mobilization, underpinned by the recently approved National Revenue Strategy, while avoiding measures that erode the tax base.\n- Advance reforms to strengthen frameworks for medium-term budget preparation, fiscal risks and transparency, and public investment management.\n- Pursue an external commercial debt treatment in line with program parameters to create space for critical spending and restore debt sustainability.\n- Maintain the shift to a managed exchange rate regime and increase exchange rate flexibility to strengthen resilience to external shocks; pursue a gradual easing of FX controls consistent with the National Bank of Ukraine’s strategy to safeguard FX reserves.\n- Continue to avoid monetary financing and support further easing in monetary policy as disinflation and FX market stability allow.\n- Enhance preparedness for strengthening financial safety nets, supervision, governance, and contingency planning in the financial sector.\n- Maintain steadfast reform momentum to enhance anti-corruption and governance frameworks, including ensuring the effectiveness of anticorruption institutions, to contain fiscal risks, enhance growth, and support the path to EU accession."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Selected economic and social indicators (2021–27) — key figures from Table 1",
      "content": "- Nominal GDP (billions of Ukrainian hryvnias): 2021: 5,451; 2022: 5,191; 2023: 6,495; 2024: 7,748; 2025: 8,865; 2026: 9,841; 2027: 10,798.\n- Real GDP (percent change): 2021: 3.4; 2022: -29.1; 2023: 5.0; 2024: [3 to 4]; 2025: 6.5; 2026: 4.5.\n- Contributions to real GDP (selected):\n  - Domestic demand: 2021: 12.9; 2022: -23.7; 2023: 8.6; 2024: 3.3.\n  - Private consumption: 2021: 4.7; 2022: -16.6; 2023: 2.7; 2024: 2.6.\n  - Investment: 2021: 8.1; 2022: -14.0; 2023: 3.1; 2024: 1.8.\n- GDP deflator (percent change): 2021: 24.8; 2022: 34.3; 2023: 19.2; 2024: 15.6; 2025: 7.5; 2026: 5.7.\n- Unemployment rate (ILO definition; period average, percent): 2021: 9.8; 2022: 24.5; 2023: 19.1; 2024: 14.5; 2025: 13.8; 2026: 11.6; 2027: 10.4.\n- Consumer prices (period average): 2021: 9.4; 2022: 20.2; 2023: 6.4; 2024: 7.6; 2025: 6.2; 2026: 5.2.\n- Consumer prices (end of period): 2021: 10.0; 2022: 26.6; 2023: 5.1; 2024: 8.5; 2025: 7.0; 2026: 5.5.\n- Nominal wages (average): 2021: 20.8; 2022: 1.0; 2023: 20.1; 2024: 16.9; 2025: 15.9; 2026: 13.3; 2027: 10.5.\n- Real wages (average): 2021: -16.0; 2022: 7.8; 2023: 6.7; 2024: (not shown in table).\n- Savings (percent of GDP), total and by sector:\n  - Total: 2021: 12.5; 2022: 17.6; 2023: 10.8; 2024: 11.9; 2025: 13.5; 2026: 16.2.\n  - Private: 2021: 12.7; 2022: 30.8; 2023: 25.8; 2024: 23.4; 2025: 13.7; 2026: 14.8.\n  - Public: 2021: -0.2; 2022: -13.2; 2023: -14.9; 2024: -11.5; 2025: -2.9; 2026: 1.4.\n- Investment (percent of GDP): 2021: 12.6; 2022: 16.3; 2023: 19.0; 2024: 20.5; 2025: 21.3; (other years shown in table).\n- General Government fiscal balance (percent of GDP): 2021: -4.0; 2022: -15.7; 2023: -19.7; 2024: -13.7; 2025: -7.3; 2026: -4.7; 2027: -3.5.\n- Fiscal balance, excl. grants (percent of GDP): 2021: -25.0; 2022: -26.3; 2023: -20.2; 2024: -10.3; 2025: -6.0.\n- Public and publicly-guaranteed debt (percent of GDP): 2021: 50.5; 2022: 78.4; 2023: 82.9; 2024: 94.0; 2025: 96.7; 2026: 95.9; 2027: 93.8.\n- Base money (end of period, percent change): 2021: 11.2; 2022: 19.6; 2023: 23.3; 2024: 18.5; 2025: 15.5; 2026: 9.0.\n- Broad money (end of period, percent change): 2021: 12.0; 2022: 23.0; 2023: 18.7; 2024: 10.6.\n- Credit to nongovernment (end of period, percent change): 2021: 8.4; 2022: -3.1; 2023: -0.5; 2024: 17.7; 2025: 18.2; 2026: 13.4.\n- Current account balance (percent of GDP): 2021: -1.9; 2022: -5.5; 2023: -5.7; 2024: -8.2; 2025: -7.0; 2026: -5.1.\n- Gross reserves (end of period, billions of U.S. dollars): 2021: 30.9; 2022: 28.5; 2023: 40.5; 2024: 42.1; 2025: 41.6; 2026: 45.1; 2027: 45.0.\n- Months of next year's imports of goods and services: 2021: 3.9; 2022: 5.4.\n- Percent of short-term debt (remaining maturity): 2021: 67.5; 2022: 64.5; 2023: 87.3; 2024: 98.7; 2025: 91.0; 2026: 102.5; 2027: 97.8.\n- Percent of the IMF composite metric (float): 2021: 98.9; 2022: 92.9; 2023: 113.2; 2024: 104.9; 2025: 98.5; 2026: 100.1; 2027: 97.6.\n- External debt (percent of GDP): 2021: 87.4; 2022: 92.5; 2023: 87.9; 2024: 0.0 (table entry).\n- Goods exports (annual volume change in percent): 2021: 35.0; 2022: -43.8; 2023: -16.1; 2024: 15.8.\n- Goods imports (annual volume change in percent): 2021: 17.0; 2022: -24.7; 2023: 21.1; 2024: 11.0; 2025: 9.2; 2026: 9.3.\n- Goods terms of trade (percent change): 2021: -8.4; 2022: -11.6; 2023: 3.6; 2024: -1.0; 2025: 0.7.\n- Exchange rate (Hryvnia per U.S. dollar, end of period): 2021: 27.3; 2022: 36.6; 2023: 38.0.\n- Exchange rate (Hryvnia per U.S. dollar, period average): 2021: 32.3; 2022: 36.7.\n- Real effective rate (deflator-based, percent change): 2021: 10.3; 2022: 27.6."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Memoranda and context",
      "content": "- Per capita GDP / Population (2017): US$2,640 / 44.8 million.\n- Literacy / Poverty rate (2022 est): 100 percent / 25 percent.\n- Note on coverage: GDP is compiled as per SNA 2008 and excludes territories that are or were in direct combat zones and temporarily occupied by Russia (consistent with the TMU).\n- Definitions: The general government includes the central and local governments and the social funds.\n\nSource: Press Release No. 24/96, IMF Communications Department, March 21, 2024.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg\n- The Executive Board\n- Ukraine and the IMF\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2024/03/21/pr2496-ukraine-imf-executive-board-completes-third-review-eff"
    }
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    "Published: March 21, 2024",
    "The Executive Board completed the third Review of the extended arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for Ukraine on March 21, 2024.",
    "The completion enables the authorities to immediately draw US$880 million (SDR 663.9 million), to be channeled for budget support.",
    "Ukraine’s 48-month EFF arrangement has access of SDR 11.6 billion (equivalent to US$15.6 billion, or about 577 percent of quota) and was approved on March 31, 2023; the arrangement forms part of a US$122 billion support package for Ukraine.",
    "The authorities met all structural benchmarks through end-February.",
    "All indicative targets were met.",
    "All but one quantitative performance criterion for end-December were met; the missed performance criterion related to tax revenues and was missed by a minor amount.",
    "The Board approved a waiver for non-observance of the December performance criterion on tax revenues.",
    "The Ukrainian economy showed resilience in 2023 with robust growth outturns, continued sharp disinflation, and maintenance of adequate reserves.",
    "Outlook for 2024: growth expected to soften to 3-4 percent due to uncertainty about the ongoing war and as supply constraints become more binding.",
    "The outlook remains subject to exceptionally high downside risks from:",
    "Ensure timely and predictable disbursement of external financing committed by all donors to safeguard macroeconomic stability.",
    "Combine external concessional disbursements with strong domestic resource mobilization to meet financing needs and secure fiscal and debt sustainability.",
    "Strengthen revenue mobilization, underpinned by the recently approved National Revenue Strategy, while avoiding measures that erode the tax base.",
    "Advance reforms to strengthen frameworks for medium-term budget preparation, fiscal risks and transparency, and public investment management.",
    "Pursue an external commercial debt treatment in line with program parameters to create space for critical spending and restore debt sustainability.",
    "Maintain the shift to a managed exchange rate regime and increase exchange rate flexibility to strengthen resilience to external shocks; pursue a gradual easing of FX controls consistent with the National Bank of Ukraine’s strategy to safeguard FX reserves.",
    "Continue to avoid monetary financing and support further easing in monetary policy as disinflation and FX market stability allow.",
    "Enhance preparedness for strengthening financial safety nets, supervision, governance, and contingency planning in the financial sector.",
    "Maintain steadfast reform momentum to enhance anti-corruption and governance frameworks, including ensuring the effectiveness of anticorruption institutions, to contain fiscal risks, enhance growth, and support the path to EU accession.",
    "Nominal GDP (billions of Ukrainian hryvnias): 2021: 5,451; 2022: 5,191; 2023: 6,495; 2024: 7,748; 2025: 8,865; 2026: 9,841; 2027: 10,798.",
    "Real GDP (percent change): 2021: 3.4; 2022: -29.1; 2023: 5.0; 2024: [3 to 4]; 2025: 6.5; 2026: 4.5.",
    "Contributions to real GDP (selected):",
    "GDP deflator (percent change): 2021: 24.8; 2022: 34.3; 2023: 19.2; 2024: 15.6; 2025: 7.5; 2026: 5.7.",
    "Unemployment rate (ILO definition; period average, percent): 2021: 9.8; 2022: 24.5; 2023: 19.1; 2024: 14.5; 2025: 13.8; 2026: 11.6; 2027: 10.4.",
    "Consumer prices (period average): 2021: 9.4; 2022: 20.2; 2023: 6.4; 2024: 7.6; 2025: 6.2; 2026: 5.2.",
    "Consumer prices (end of period): 2021: 10.0; 2022: 26.6; 2023: 5.1; 2024: 8.5; 2025: 7.0; 2026: 5.5.",
    "Nominal wages (average): 2021: 20.8; 2022: 1.0; 2023: 20.1; 2024: 16.9; 2025: 15.9; 2026: 13.3; 2027: 10.5.",
    "Real wages (average): 2021: -16.0; 2022: 7.8; 2023: 6.7; 2024: (not shown in table).",
    "Savings (percent of GDP), total and by sector:",
    "Investment (percent of GDP): 2021: 12.6; 2022: 16.3; 2023: 19.0; 2024: 20.5; 2025: 21.3; (other years shown in table).",
    "General Government fiscal balance (percent of GDP): 2021: -4.0; 2022: -15.7; 2023: -19.7; 2024: -13.7; 2025: -7.3; 2026: -4.7; 2027: -3.5.",
    "Fiscal balance, excl. grants (percent of GDP): 2021: -25.0; 2022: -26.3; 2023: -20.2; 2024: -10.3; 2025: -6.0.",
    "Public and publicly-guaranteed debt (percent of GDP): 2021: 50.5; 2022: 78.4; 2023: 82.9; 2024: 94.0; 2025: 96.7; 2026: 95.9; 2027: 93.8.",
    "Base money (end of period, percent change): 2021: 11.2; 2022: 19.6; 2023: 23.3; 2024: 18.5; 2025: 15.5; 2026: 9.0.",
    "Broad money (end of period, percent change): 2021: 12.0; 2022: 23.0; 2023: 18.7; 2024: 10.6.",
    "Credit to nongovernment (end of period, percent change): 2021: 8.4; 2022: -3.1; 2023: -0.5; 2024: 17.7; 2025: 18.2; 2026: 13.4.",
    "Current account balance (percent of GDP): 2021: -1.9; 2022: -5.5; 2023: -5.7; 2024: -8.2; 2025: -7.0; 2026: -5.1.",
    "Gross reserves (end of period, billions of U.S. dollars): 2021: 30.9; 2022: 28.5; 2023: 40.5; 2024: 42.1; 2025: 41.6; 2026: 45.1; 2027: 45.0.",
    "Months of next year's imports of goods and services: 2021: 3.9; 2022: 5.4.",
    "Percent of short-term debt (remaining maturity): 2021: 67.5; 2022: 64.5; 2023: 87.3; 2024: 98.7; 2025: 91.0; 2026: 102.5; 2027: 97.8.",
    "Percent of the IMF composite metric (float): 2021: 98.9; 2022: 92.9; 2023: 113.2; 2024: 104.9; 2025: 98.5; 2026: 100.1; 2027: 97.6.",
    "External debt (percent of GDP): 2021: 87.4; 2022: 92.5; 2023: 87.9; 2024: 0.0 (table entry).",
    "Goods exports (annual volume change in percent): 2021: 35.0; 2022: -43.8; 2023: -16.1; 2024: 15.8.",
    "Goods imports (annual volume change in percent): 2021: 17.0; 2022: -24.7; 2023: 21.1; 2024: 11.0; 2025: 9.2; 2026: 9.3.",
    "Goods terms of trade (percent change): 2021: -8.4; 2022: -11.6; 2023: 3.6; 2024: -1.0; 2025: 0.7.",
    "Exchange rate (Hryvnia per U.S. dollar, end of period): 2021: 27.3; 2022: 36.6; 2023: 38.0.",
    "Exchange rate (Hryvnia per U.S. dollar, period average): 2021: 32.3; 2022: 36.7.",
    "Real effective rate (deflator-based, percent change): 2021: 10.3; 2022: 27.6.",
    "Per capita GDP / Population (2017): US$2,640 / 44.8 million.",
    "Literacy / Poverty rate (2022 est): 100 percent / 25 percent.",
    "Note on coverage: GDP is compiled as per SNA 2008 and excludes territories that are or were in direct combat zones and temporarily occupied by Russia (consistent with the TMU).",
    "Definitions: The general government includes the central and local governments and the social funds.",
    "[https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg](https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg)",
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    "[Ukraine and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/UKR/index.htm)",
    "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm](http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm)",
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