{
  "title": "Transcript of IMF Press Briefing",
  "publication": "IMF News, April 4, 2024",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2024/04/04/tr040424-transcript-of-imf-press-briefing",
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  "summary": "Good morning, everyone, both to those of you here with us in person and to those joining us online. Welcome to the IMF press briefing. I am Julie Kozak, Director of the Communications Department. As usual, this briefing will be embargoed until 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time in the United States.",
  "publishDate": "2024-04-04",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Spring Meetings and logistics",
      "content": "- Spring Meetings scheduled in Washington, DC from April 15th through 19th.\n- Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva to deliver a curtain raiser speech on April 11 at 9:00 a.m. at the Atlantic Council.\n- IMF to release the latest World Economic Outlook, the Global Financial Stability Report, the Fiscal Monitor, and Regional Outlooks during Spring Meetings."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Ukraine: program status, financing, and risks",
      "content": "- On March 21, the Executive Board completed the third review of Ukraine's four-year Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement.\n- Third-review disbursement: US$880 million; total disbursements under the program: US$5.4 billion.\n- Ukraine's economy: described as showing \"remarkable resilience\" but outlook is \"subject to exceptionally high war-related uncertainty.\"\n- Program implementation: \"all structural benchmarks and all but one quantitative performance criteria met.\"\n- Debt sustainability analysis (DSA) for the third review found debt sustainable on a forward-looking basis conditional on:\n  - continued fiscal consolidation as outlined under the program;\n  - continuation of substantial concessional financing consistent with the program;\n  - debt restructuring covering official bilateral and external commercial debt (explicitly excludes multilateral debts, including IMF debt).\n- IMF stance on frozen Russian assets: decisions for relevant country authorities and jurisdictions; IMF emphasizes sufficient legal underpinnings and preserving functioning of the international monetary system.\n- IMF will factor recent missile/drone strikes and energy infrastructure attacks into macroeconomic framework for the next review.\n- Spring Meetings to include ministerial roundtable discussions on Ukraine and the \"criticality of timely disbursements of budget support for Ukraine.\""
    },
    {
      "heading": "Global spillovers from the Ukraine war",
      "content": "- Early sharp increases in food and energy prices led to a global cost-of-living crisis; low-income countries were particularly affected.\n- Central bank responses raised interest rates to bring down inflation, increasing debt servicing costs for many low-income countries.\n- IMF will present a full assessment in the upcoming World Economic Outlook and Regional Outlooks."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Sri Lanka: program progress and debt restructuring",
      "content": "- December 12, 2023: Executive Board approved the first review enabling a disbursement of US$337 million.\n- March 21: Staff-Level Agreement reached to conclude the second review and the 2024 Article IV Consultation; Executive Board completion requires:\n  - implementation of agreed prior actions;\n  - completion of the financing assurances review to confirm multilateral partners' continued financing and assess progress with debt restructuring.\n- Positive macro outcomes cited: \"rapid disinflation, robust reserve accumulation, and initial signs of economic growth.\"\n- Next steps: conclude negotiations with external commercial creditors and implement agreements in principle with official creditors; domestic debt operations largely completed."
    },
    {
      "heading": "El Salvador: program discussions and bitcoin risks",
      "content": "- IMF staff are engaging with Salvadoran authorities to reach an IMF-supported program focused on fiscal and external sustainability, productivity, and governance.\n- \"Addressing risks arising from Bitcoin is a key element of our discussions.\"\n- 2023 developments: real GDP growth strengthened driven by tourism and construction; inflation declined; current account deficit narrowed; fiscal policy was \"somewhat accommodative\" due to higher pension spending and public investment."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Bank of Japan (BOJ) and Taiwan earthquake",
      "content": "- IMF welcomes BOJ decision to exit yield curve control and negative interest rate policy; these actions align with IMF recommendations to anchor inflation around Japan's 2 percent target.\n- Further BOJ moves should be \"data dependent.\"\n- On the Taiwan earthquake: IMF condolences expressed; impact analysis to be covered in the World Economic Outlook and Regional Economic Outlook releases."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Argentina: stabilization progress and exchange rate policy",
      "content": "- Authorities implementing an ambitious stabilization plan centered on a strong fiscal anchor eliminating Central Bank financing of the government.\n- Reported outcomes: fiscal surplus recorded in January and February \"for the first time in over a decade\"; international reserves rebuilding; inflation falling \"more quickly than anticipated\"; improvements in market indicators such as FX GAAP and sovereign spreads.\n- IMF engagement: active discussions in the context of the current IMF-supported program; \"premature to discuss modalities for a potential future program.\"\n- Exchange rate: authorities using comprehensive measures (fiscal anchor, foreign exchange and monetary policy) to support reserve accumulation and disinflation."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Pakistan: Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) review and disbursement",
      "content": "- March 19: IMF staff and Pakistani authorities reached staff-level agreement on the second and final review under Pakistan's SBA (subject to Executive Board approval).\n- Upon Board approval, access to \"around $1.1 billion\" bringing total disbursements under the SBA to \"about $3 billion.\"\n- Board meeting expected in late April.\n- Authorities have expressed interest in a successor IMF-supported program."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Sub-Saharan Africa: climate shocks, droughts, and IMF support",
      "content": "- Increased frequency of climate shocks noted; current drought emergencies in Zimbabwe, Malawi, and Zambia highlighted.\n- Since 2020, IMF provided \"almost $58 billion\" of financing to Sub-Saharan Africa, mostly on highly concessional terms.\n- Nine Sub-Saharan African countries with arrangements approved under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF): Benin, Cabo Verde, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Kenya, Niger, Rwanda, Senegal, and Seychelles.\n- IMF continues to receive requests for RSF support and will work with countries to build resilience."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Kenya: mission and program review",
      "content": "- IMF team on the ground in Kenya conducting the 7th review of Kenya's IMF-supported program; team assessing recent developments and program performance.\n- IMF will communicate findings after mission concludes."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Niger and Tunisia: program updates",
      "content": "- Niger: IMF has an Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and an RSF; a team visited in early March; preparations underway for a Review Mission; Article IV Consultation expected to be presented to the Board later this year.\n- Tunisia: benefiting from term-of-trade and tourism tailwinds; growth subdued and unemployment high; three-year wage agreement helped reduce external and fiscal deficits in 2023; IMF committed to supporting Tunisia's reform efforts."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Interest rates outlook",
      "content": "- Reference to an IMF analytical chapter on the neutral rate of interest (World Economic Outlook, April 2023): recent increases in real interest rates likely temporary; when inflation is under control, advanced economy central banks likely to ease policy and real rates may return toward pre-pandemic levels.\n- Outcomes depend on global developments; chapter presented different scenarios."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Germany and Eurozone spillovers",
      "content": "- Germany avoided dire scenarios after Russian gas shutoff due to energy conservation and securing supplies.\n- Near-term growth weighed by energy shock, tighter financial conditions, and weak external demand.\n- Study cited: a 1 percentage point negative shock to German near-term growth affects the rest of the Eurozone by 0.1 percentage points; U.S. shocks can have larger Euro area effects."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Ecuador: request for IMF support and policy needs",
      "content": "- Ecuador authorities have requested an IMF-supported program.\n- Main challenges: macroeconomic and fiscal pressures amid an ongoing security crisis and a liquidity crisis; government has taken policy steps to address liquidity and fiscal issues.\n- IMF recommends policies to ensure macroeconomic and fiscal sustainability and create conditions for stronger and more inclusive growth."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Ethiopia: program request and mission",
      "content": "- IMF received a request for financial assistance to address food insecurity, humanitarian needs, post-conflict reconstruction, and high inflation, and to support Ethiopia's \"homegrown Economic Reform Agenda.\"\n- IMF mission visited Ethiopia from March 19 through April 2; \"substantial progress\" made toward ways IMF can support the authorities; discussions continue and will proceed at the Spring Meetings."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Papua New Guinea: Resident Representative Office rationale",
      "content": "- IMF has a program with Papua New Guinea; establishing a Resident Representative Office is standard practice when a program exists.\n- Reasons: 14-hour time difference with Washington; Resident Representatives support program monitoring, engage with authorities, and foster local community engagement to build social support for reforms."
    },
    {
      "heading": "India growth projections and institutional roles",
      "content": "- Clarification of roles: Executive Directors represent countries/groups on the IMF Executive Board; staff produce IMF staff forecasts.\n- Staff forecast (as of January): medium-term growth for India projected at 6.5 percent (a slight upward revision relative to October).\n- Staff will update forecasts in the upcoming World Economic Outlook."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Ghana, transparency in debt processes, and Zambia debt restructuring",
      "content": "- Ghana: IMF had no immediate update; follow-up to be provided bilaterally.\n- Common Framework/creditor transparency concerns noted (private bondholder access to Official Creditor Committee terms).\n- Zambia:\n  - 2023 real GDP growth: 4 percent (broadly in line with program projections).\n  - 2024 outlook: deterioration due to drought and slower rebound in mining production; drought pressures budget, external balance, inflation, and food security.\n  - Third review mission scheduled after the Spring Meetings to assess drought impact and financing needs.\n  - Recent agreement in principle with Eurobond holders described as a \"critical milestone\"; under G-20 common framework, authorities must finalize bilateral agreements with official creditors and reach agreement with other commercial lenders; agreements should be in line with program parameters and comparability of treatment.\n\nIMF Communications Department — Transcript of IMF Press Briefing, April 4, 2024\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- PRESS CENTER\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2024/04/04/tr040424-transcript-of-imf-press-briefing"
    }
  ],
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    "Published: April 4, 2024",
    "Spring Meetings scheduled in Washington, DC from April 15th through 19th.",
    "Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva to deliver a curtain raiser speech on April 11 at 9:00 a.m. at the Atlantic Council.",
    "IMF to release the latest World Economic Outlook, the Global Financial Stability Report, the Fiscal Monitor, and Regional Outlooks during Spring Meetings.",
    "On March 21, the Executive Board completed the third review of Ukraine's four-year Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement.",
    "Third-review disbursement: US$880 million; total disbursements under the program: US$5.4 billion.",
    "Ukraine's economy: described as showing \"remarkable resilience\" but outlook is \"subject to exceptionally high war-related uncertainty.\"",
    "Program implementation: \"all structural benchmarks and all but one quantitative performance criteria met.\"",
    "Debt sustainability analysis (DSA) for the third review found debt sustainable on a forward-looking basis conditional on:",
    "IMF stance on frozen Russian assets: decisions for relevant country authorities and jurisdictions; IMF emphasizes sufficient legal underpinnings and preserving functioning of the international monetary system.",
    "IMF will factor recent missile/drone strikes and energy infrastructure attacks into macroeconomic framework for the next review.",
    "Spring Meetings to include ministerial roundtable discussions on Ukraine and the \"criticality of timely disbursements of budget support for Ukraine.\"",
    "Early sharp increases in food and energy prices led to a global cost-of-living crisis; low-income countries were particularly affected.",
    "Central bank responses raised interest rates to bring down inflation, increasing debt servicing costs for many low-income countries.",
    "IMF will present a full assessment in the upcoming World Economic Outlook and Regional Outlooks.",
    "December 12, 2023: Executive Board approved the first review enabling a disbursement of US$337 million.",
    "March 21: Staff-Level Agreement reached to conclude the second review and the 2024 Article IV Consultation; Executive Board completion requires:",
    "Positive macro outcomes cited: \"rapid disinflation, robust reserve accumulation, and initial signs of economic growth.\"",
    "Next steps: conclude negotiations with external commercial creditors and implement agreements in principle with official creditors; domestic debt operations largely completed.",
    "IMF staff are engaging with Salvadoran authorities to reach an IMF-supported program focused on fiscal and external sustainability, productivity, and governance.",
    "\"Addressing risks arising from Bitcoin is a key element of our discussions.\"",
    "2023 developments: real GDP growth strengthened driven by tourism and construction; inflation declined; current account deficit narrowed; fiscal policy was \"somewhat accommodative\" due to higher pension spending and public investment.",
    "IMF welcomes BOJ decision to exit yield curve control and negative interest rate policy; these actions align with IMF recommendations to anchor inflation around Japan's 2 percent target.",
    "Further BOJ moves should be \"data dependent.\"",
    "On the Taiwan earthquake: IMF condolences expressed; impact analysis to be covered in the World Economic Outlook and Regional Economic Outlook releases.",
    "Authorities implementing an ambitious stabilization plan centered on a strong fiscal anchor eliminating Central Bank financing of the government.",
    "Reported outcomes: fiscal surplus recorded in January and February \"for the first time in over a decade\"; international reserves rebuilding; inflation falling \"more quickly than anticipated\"; improvements in market indicators such as FX GAAP and sovereign spreads.",
    "IMF engagement: active discussions in the context of the current IMF-supported program; \"premature to discuss modalities for a potential future program.\"",
    "Exchange rate: authorities using comprehensive measures (fiscal anchor, foreign exchange and monetary policy) to support reserve accumulation and disinflation.",
    "March 19: IMF staff and Pakistani authorities reached staff-level agreement on the second and final review under Pakistan's SBA (subject to Executive Board approval).",
    "Upon Board approval, access to \"around $1.1 billion\" bringing total disbursements under the SBA to \"about $3 billion.\"",
    "Board meeting expected in late April.",
    "Authorities have expressed interest in a successor IMF-supported program.",
    "Increased frequency of climate shocks noted; current drought emergencies in Zimbabwe, Malawi, and Zambia highlighted.",
    "Since 2020, IMF provided \"almost $58 billion\" of financing to Sub-Saharan Africa, mostly on highly concessional terms.",
    "Nine Sub-Saharan African countries with arrangements approved under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF): Benin, Cabo Verde, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Kenya, Niger, Rwanda, Senegal, and Seychelles.",
    "IMF continues to receive requests for RSF support and will work with countries to build resilience.",
    "IMF team on the ground in Kenya conducting the 7th review of Kenya's IMF-supported program; team assessing recent developments and program performance.",
    "IMF will communicate findings after mission concludes.",
    "Niger: IMF has an Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and an RSF; a team visited in early March; preparations underway for a Review Mission; Article IV Consultation expected to be presented to the Board later this year.",
    "Tunisia: benefiting from term-of-trade and tourism tailwinds; growth subdued and unemployment high; three-year wage agreement helped reduce external and fiscal deficits in 2023; IMF committed to supporting Tunisia's reform efforts.",
    "Reference to an IMF analytical chapter on the neutral rate of interest (World Economic Outlook, April 2023): recent increases in real interest rates likely temporary; when inflation is under control, advanced economy central banks likely to ease policy and real rates may return toward pre-pandemic levels.",
    "Outcomes depend on global developments; chapter presented different scenarios.",
    "Germany avoided dire scenarios after Russian gas shutoff due to energy conservation and securing supplies.",
    "Near-term growth weighed by energy shock, tighter financial conditions, and weak external demand.",
    "Study cited: a 1 percentage point negative shock to German near-term growth affects the rest of the Eurozone by 0.1 percentage points; U.S. shocks can have larger Euro area effects.",
    "Ecuador authorities have requested an IMF-supported program.",
    "Main challenges: macroeconomic and fiscal pressures amid an ongoing security crisis and a liquidity crisis; government has taken policy steps to address liquidity and fiscal issues.",
    "IMF recommends policies to ensure macroeconomic and fiscal sustainability and create conditions for stronger and more inclusive growth.",
    "IMF received a request for financial assistance to address food insecurity, humanitarian needs, post-conflict reconstruction, and high inflation, and to support Ethiopia's \"homegrown Economic Reform Agenda.\"",
    "IMF mission visited Ethiopia from March 19 through April 2; \"substantial progress\" made toward ways IMF can support the authorities; discussions continue and will proceed at the Spring Meetings.",
    "IMF has a program with Papua New Guinea; establishing a Resident Representative Office is standard practice when a program exists.",
    "Reasons: 14-hour time difference with Washington; Resident Representatives support program monitoring, engage with authorities, and foster local community engagement to build social support for reforms.",
    "Clarification of roles: Executive Directors represent countries/groups on the IMF Executive Board; staff produce IMF staff forecasts.",
    "Staff forecast (as of January): medium-term growth for India projected at 6.5 percent (a slight upward revision relative to October).",
    "Staff will update forecasts in the upcoming World Economic Outlook.",
    "Ghana: IMF had no immediate update; follow-up to be provided bilaterally.",
    "Common Framework/creditor transparency concerns noted (private bondholder access to Official Creditor Committee terms).",
    "Zambia:",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
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