{ "title": "Transcript of Middle East and Central Asia April 2024 Press Briefing", "publication": "IMF News, April 18, 2024", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2024/04/18/tr041824-transcript-of-middle-east-central-asia-april-2024-press-briefing", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2024/04/18/tr041824-transcript-of-middle-east-central-asia-april-2024-press-briefing", "overlayPath": "/en/news/articles/2024/04/18/tr041824-transcript-of-middle-east-central-asia-april-2024-press-briefing/index.md", "summary": "Transcript of Middle East and Central Asia April 2024 Press Briefing", "publishDate": "2024-04-18", "sections": [ { "heading": "Regional growth outlook — MENA and CCA", "content": "- MENA growth projected to improve to 2.7 percent in 2024, from 1.9 percent in 2023.\n- The 2024 MENA projection reflects a 0.7 percent downgrade from October 2023 projections due to conflict in Sudan and Gaza and oil production cuts.\n- MENA growth projected to strengthen to 4.2 percent in 2025 as temporary factors fade.\n- CCA growth projected at 3.9 percent in 2024 and 4.8 percent in 2025.\n- Drivers noted:\n - GCC: non-hydrocarbon activity is the main contributor to growth as countries pursue economic diversification plans.\n - CCA: loosening of macro policies, strong domestic demand, idiosyncratic factors (such as oil production increase) support resilience.\n - Trade diversion following the onset of the war in Ukraine has reshaped trade flows in the CCA." }, { "heading": "Inflation developments", "content": "- MENA:\n - Average inflation forecast to ease to 14.5 percent in 2024 and 12.4 percent in 2025.\n - These numbers partly reflect high inflation in Egypt and Sudan.\n - Excluding Egypt and Sudan, inflation projected to average 8.8 percent in 2024 and 7.8 percent in 2025.\n - Around one third of economies are now close to or even below historical average inflation.\n - Monetary tightening cycles appear to have ended in most economies.\n- CCA:\n - Inflation forecast to ease from 7.7 percent in 2024 to 7.1 percent in 2025.\n - Majority of country inflation is below or close to targets, providing room for some monetary easing." }, { "heading": "Vulnerabilities and downside risks", "content": "- Key regional downside risks for MENA:\n - Conflicts in Gaza and Israel, with risks of escalation or protracted conflict.\n - Red Sea shipping disruptions and oil price vulnerability for oil exporters.\n - High debt and financing needs for emerging and middle-income countries.\n - Recurrent climate shocks affecting low-income countries.\n- Key risks for CCA:\n - Slowdown in trading partners.\n - Worsening geoeconomic conditions related to the war in Ukraine.\n- Conflict impacts:\n - Conflict can cause large and persistent output losses and potential spillovers to other countries.\n - Red Sea tensions led to a decline of trade by more than half and a decline of Egyptian Suez Canal revenues by about two thirds (as cited in the briefing).\n- Specific figures and observations raised in Q&A:\n - Questioner referenced an \"18.3 percent GDP contraction for Sudan\" (as posed during the briefing)." }, { "heading": "Policy guidance and priorities", "content": "- Balance priorities in an uncertain time:\n - Safeguard macroeconomic stability and sustainability while improving medium-term growth prospects.\n- Monetary policy:\n - Remain vigilant; be cautious of premature or excessive easing.\n - Strengthen monetary policy frameworks, increase transparency, and ensure central bank independence.\n- Fiscal policy and debt management:\n - Where public sector debt levels are elevated, fiscal policies and active debt management should decisively bring debt down.\n - Tailor policies carefully by country given market differences.\n- Structural reforms and resilience:\n - Accelerate reforms to fortify fundamentals, including strengthening institutions.\n - Seize opportunities from new trade corridors by reducing trade barriers, diversifying products and markets, and improving infrastructure." }, { "heading": "IMF engagement, financing, and capacity development", "content": "- Financing provided since the onset of the Pandemic: more than $40 billion.\n- Financing since the start of 2023: $16 billion (including to Egypt, Jordan, Mauritania, Morocco, and Somalia).\n- Policy traction and fragile states:\n - Increasing policy traction with Middle East and Central Asia countries outside programs.\n - Scaling up implementation of the Fund’s strategy for fragile and conflict states.\n- Technical assistance and capacity development:\n - About 350 technical assistance and capacity development projects in the region.\n - Capacity development budget increased by 38 percent in the last two years, reaching $45 million in fiscal year 2024." }, { "heading": "Country highlights and program-related points raised in briefing", "content": "- Egypt:\n - Multiple references to program support and reviews; loan amount discussed in the briefing as increased from \"five to $8 billion\" and elsewhere described as improved from \"$3 to $8 billion.\"\n - Tranche disbursements occur upon Executive Directors’ approval.\n - Exchange rate unification/flexibility and allowing the exchange rate to reflect real prices were emphasized as tools to protect the economy and attract private sector activity.\n - Priorities cited: tackle inflation, accelerate economic transformation, enhance private sector role, redesign public sector role, increase transparency on large public investment projects, and maintain social protection for vulnerable groups.\n - Debt dynamics noted: debt expected to start declining from 92.4 percent (2024) to 82.6 percent (subsequent year projection mentioned in the briefing).\n- Sudan:\n - The briefing noted severe humanitarian and economic distress due to recent escalation of conflict; the Fund remains engaged but re-engagement is constrained while conflict persists.\n - Historical engagement: a two years-ago decision point addressing about $56 billion of debt in arrears; Completion Point plans were interrupted by renewed conflict.\n - The Fund stands ready to reengage on debt relief and reconstruction when conditions permit.\n- Pakistan:\n - A program initiated ten months ago achieved milestones improving stability and rebuilding buffers; last review successful.\n - Authorities have expressed interest in a new program; priority reforms include fiscal consolidation through revenue mobilization, energy sector reform, and measures to boost potential growth by improving the business environment and private sector space.\n - IMF view: the package of reforms matters more than program size; Fund support is ready when requested.\n- Jordan:\n - Authorities implemented measures reducing the deficit and improving stability; credit ratings improved.\n - Program support aimed at promoting growth and helping external financing; international support remains important given refugee-related fiscal pressures.\n- Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) energy and stability role:\n - CCA countries have remained resilient and adjusted to global changes including trade-route shifts.\n - Energy markets remain well supplied; volatility exists with geopolitical events but supply capacity broadly covers shortages.\n\nTranscript of Middle East and Central Asia April 2024 Press Briefing — April 18, 2024, IMF Communications Department.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- https://www.imf.org/en/about/senior-officials/bios/jihad-azour\n- Israel and the IMF\n- Sudan and the IMF\n- Arab Republic of Egypt and the IMF\n- Jordan and the IMF\n- Kingdom of Bahrain and the IMF\n- Kuwait and the IMF\n- Oman and the IMF\n- Pakistan and the IMF\n- Qatar and the IMF\n- Republic of Azerbaijan and the IMF\n- Republic of Yemen and the IMF\n- Saudi Arabia and the IMF\n- Somalia and the IMF\n- United Arab Emirates and the IMF\n- Transcripts\n- PRESS CENTER\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2024/04/18/tr041824-transcript-of-middle-east-central-asia-april-2024-press-briefing" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2024/04/18/tr041824-transcript-of-middle-east-central-asia-april-2024-press-briefing/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2024/04/18/tr041824-transcript-of-middle-east-central-asia-april-2024-press-briefing/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2024/04/18/tr041824-transcript-of-middle-east-central-asia-april-2024-press-briefing/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: April 18, 2024", "MENA growth projected to improve to 2.7 percent in 2024, from 1.9 percent in 2023.", "The 2024 MENA projection reflects a 0.7 percent downgrade from October 2023 projections due to conflict in Sudan and Gaza and oil production cuts.", "MENA growth projected to strengthen to 4.2 percent in 2025 as temporary factors fade.", "CCA growth projected at 3.9 percent in 2024 and 4.8 percent in 2025.", "Drivers noted:", "MENA:", "CCA:", "Key regional downside risks for MENA:", "Key risks for CCA:", "Conflict impacts:", "Specific figures and observations raised in Q&A:", "Balance priorities in an uncertain time:", "Monetary policy:", "Fiscal policy and debt management:", "Structural reforms and resilience:", "Financing provided since the onset of the Pandemic: more than $40 billion.", "Financing since the start of 2023: $16 billion (including to Egypt, Jordan, Mauritania, Morocco, and Somalia).", "Policy traction and fragile states:", "Technical assistance and capacity development:", "Egypt:", "Sudan:", "Pakistan:", "Jordan:", "Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) energy and stability role:", "[https://www.imf.org/en/about/senior-officials/bios/jihad-azour](https://www.imf.org/en/about/senior-officials/bios/jihad-azour)", "[Israel and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/ISR/index.htm)", "[Sudan and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/SDN/index.htm)", "[Arab Republic of Egypt and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/EGY/index.htm)", "[Jordan and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/JOR/index.htm)", "[Kingdom of Bahrain and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/BHR/index.htm)", "[Kuwait and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/KWT/index.htm)", "[Oman and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/OMN/index.htm)", "[Pakistan and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/PAK/index.htm)", "[Qatar and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/QAT/index.htm)", "[Republic of Azerbaijan and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/AZE/index.htm)", "[Republic of Yemen and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/YEM/index.htm)", "[Saudi Arabia and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/SAU/index.htm)", "[Somalia and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/SOM/index.htm)", "[United Arab Emirates and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/ARE/index.htm)", "[Transcripts](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)", "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)", "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)" ], "alternates": { "markdown": "/en/news/articles/2024/04/18/tr041824-transcript-of-middle-east-central-asia-april-2024-press-briefing/index.md", "json": "/en/news/articles/2024/04/18/tr041824-transcript-of-middle-east-central-asia-april-2024-press-briefing/index.json", "bundleManifest": "/en/news/articles/2024/04/18/tr041824-transcript-of-middle-east-central-asia-april-2024-press-briefing/bundle-manifest.json" }, "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-26T02:55:05.852Z" }