{
  "title": "IMF Staff Concludes Staff Visit to Oman",
  "publication": "IMF News, May 13, 2024",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2024/05/10/pr-24154-oman-imf-staff-concludes-staff-visit",
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  "summary": "A staff team from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), led by Mr. Cesar Serra, visited Muscat, Oman, during April 30-May 8, 2024, to discuss economic and financial developments, the outlook, and the country’s policy priorities.",
  "publishDate": "2024-05-13",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Mission and context",
      "content": "- A staff team from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), led by Mr. Cesar Serra, visited Muscat, Oman, during April 30-May 8, 2024, to discuss economic and financial developments, the outlook, and the country’s policy priorities.\n- End-of-Mission press release: views expressed are those of IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. This mission will not result in a Board discussion."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Economic activity, growth, and inflation",
      "content": "- Real GDP growth:\n  - 2023: 1.3 percent (driven by expansion of nonhydrocarbon activities).\n  - 2024 (projected): 0.9 percent (moderate growth, reflecting extended oil production cuts to the first half of 2024).\n  - 2025 (projected): 4.1 percent (accelerating, supported by a rebound in hydrocarbon activity following expected relaxation of OPEC+ quotas).\n- Nonhydrocarbon growth:\n  - 2023: 2.1 percent.\n  - 2024 (projected): 2.6 percent.\n  - 2025 (projected): 3.2 percent.\n- Inflation:\n  - Average headline inflation decelerated from 0.9 percent in 2023 to nil during January-March 2024 (year-over-year), reflecting easing of core, food, and transport inflation."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Fiscal position and public debt",
      "content": "- Fiscal balance:\n  - 2023: surplus of 6.6 percent of GDP.\n  - Forecast: remain in surplus over the medium term, supported by comfortable hydrocarbon receipts, increasing nonhydrocarbon revenues, and continued fiscal discipline.\n- Central government debt:\n  - 2023: 36.5 percent of GDP (reduced from 40.9 percent in 2022).\n  - Net debt reduction in 2023: $6.1 billion (government used part of the fiscal surplus to prepay debt).\n- State-owned enterprises (SOEs) debt:\n  - Stabilized at around 31 percent of GDP.\n  - Oman Investment Authority’s SOEs reform agenda: 9 divestments completed in 2023 with proceeds amounting to about $3 billion."
    },
    {
      "heading": "External position and reserves",
      "content": "- Current account balance:\n  - 2023: surplus of 1.4 percent of GDP.\n  - Projected: set to remain in surplus over the medium term.\n- Gross international reserves held by the Central Bank of Oman:\n  - 2023: $17.5 billion (4.1 months of prospective goods and services imports).\n  - Reserves supported by a surge in Foreign Direct Investment.\n- Banks’ net foreign asset position turned positive in December 2023 for the first time since 2014, due to rising investments in foreign securities."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Banking sector and financial stability",
      "content": "- Banking sector resilience:\n  - Bank capital and liquidity ratios and profitability continue at comfortable levels.\n  - Asset quality: strong.\n  - Credit to the private sector: continued to expand.\n  - Banks’ net foreign asset position: turned positive in December 2023."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Outlook and risks",
      "content": "- Near- to medium-term outlook: favorable; risks broadly balanced.\n- Upside risks:\n  - Surge in oil prices (driven by supply and demand imbalances).\n  - Accelerated reforms under Oman Vision 2040.\n  - Committed investments from regional partners.\n- Downside risks:\n  - Further intensification of geo-political tensions in the region.\n  - An abrupt global slowdown, particularly in China.\n  - Higher-for-longer global interest rates."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Structural reforms and policy priorities",
      "content": "- Progress under Oman Vision 2040:\n  - Social protection and labor laws being rolled out.\n  - SOEs divestment, deleveraging, and other SOEs reforms progressing as planned.\n  - Climate-related investments on track to achieve renewable energy and green hydrogen targets over the medium term.\n- Authorities’ priorities going forward:\n  - Enhancing tax administration.\n  - Continuing rationalizing fiscal expenditures.\n  - Strengthening the medium-term fiscal framework.\n  - Modernizing the monetary policy toolkit.\n  - Deepening financial markets and supporting small and medium enterprises funding.\n  - Accelerating digitalization.\n- Reform objectives: accelerate diversification towards a greener, more inclusive, and knowledge-based economy.\n\nIMF Communications Department — Press Release No. 24/154 (May 13, 2024); statement issued by Mr. Cesar Serra at the conclusion of the mission.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- Oman and the IMF\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2024/05/10/pr-24154-oman-imf-staff-concludes-staff-visit"
    }
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    "Published: May 13, 2024",
    "A staff team from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), led by Mr. Cesar Serra, visited Muscat, Oman, during April 30-May 8, 2024, to discuss economic and financial developments, the outlook, and the country’s policy priorities.",
    "End-of-Mission press release: views expressed are those of IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. This mission will not result in a Board discussion.",
    "Real GDP growth:",
    "Nonhydrocarbon growth:",
    "Inflation:",
    "Fiscal balance:",
    "Central government debt:",
    "State-owned enterprises (SOEs) debt:",
    "Current account balance:",
    "Gross international reserves held by the Central Bank of Oman:",
    "Banks’ net foreign asset position turned positive in December 2023 for the first time since 2014, due to rising investments in foreign securities.",
    "Banking sector resilience:",
    "Near- to medium-term outlook: favorable; risks broadly balanced.",
    "Upside risks:",
    "Downside risks:",
    "Progress under Oman Vision 2040:",
    "Authorities’ priorities going forward:",
    "Reform objectives: accelerate diversification towards a greener, more inclusive, and knowledge-based economy.",
    "[Oman and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/OMN/index.htm)",
    "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
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