{
  "title": "IMF Executive Board Concludes 2024 Article IV Consultation with Mauritius",
  "publication": "IMF News, May 16, 2024",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2024/05/16/pr24168-mauritius-imf-executive-board-concludes-2024-article-iv-consultation",
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  "summary": "On May 15, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation with Mauritius.",
  "publishDate": "2024-05-16",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Economic rebound and recent performance",
      "content": "- Real GDP growth reached 8.9 percent in 2022 and an estimated 7 percent in 2023; output has now exceeded its pre-pandemic level.\n- Real GDP growth by year (selected): 2.9 (2019), -14.5 (2020), 3.4 (2021), 8.9 (2022), 7.0 (2023), projected 4.9 (2024).\n- Inflation averaged 7 percent in 2023, supported by lower international commodity prices.\n- Consumer prices inflation (period average): 0.5 (2019), 2.5 (2020), 10.8 (2021), 7.0 (2023).\n- Consumer prices inflation (end of period): 0.9 (2019), 2.7 (2020), 6.8 (2022), 12.2 (2023), 3.9 (2024), 5.1 (2025).\n- External current account deficit narrowed sharply in 2023 to 4.5 percent of GDP."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Outlook and projections",
      "content": "- Real GDP growth projected at 4.9 percent in 2024 and around 3.5 percent in the medium term (in line with pre-pandemic growth).\n- Headline inflation projected to ease to 4.9 percent on average in 2024 and 3.5 percent thereafter (in line with the Bank of Mauritius’ medium-term inflation target).\n- External current account deficit expected to remain at 4.5 percent of GDP in 2024 and about 4 percent over the medium term.\n- Public debt, estimated at 81 percent of GDP in June 2023, is projected to moderate over the medium term.\n- Selected forward-looking indicators (projections from Table 1):\n  - Real GDP: 4.9 (2024), 3.7 (2025), 3.5 (2026), 3.3 (2027).\n  - GDP per capita (U.S. dollars): 11,408 (2019), 9,011 (2020), 9,087 (2021), 10,251 (2022), 11,417 (2023), 12,997 (2024), 14,025 (2025), 15,061 (2026), 16,045 (2027), 17,078 (2028), 18,157 (2029).\n  - Gross international reserves (millions of U.S. dollars): 7,354 (2019), 7,242 (2020), 7,805 (2021), 7,740 (2022), 7,254 (2023), 7,604 (2024), 7,954 (2025), 8,304 (2026), 8,654 (2027), 9,004 (2028), 9,354 (2029).\n  - Total external debt: 88.9 (2019), 110.7 (2020), 134.0 (2021), 132.0 (2022), 128.9 (2023), 119.8 (2024), 112.3 (2025), 105.4 (2026), 99.6 (2027), 93.8 (2028), 88.4 (2029)."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key macrofinancial indicators (selected exact figures)",
      "content": "- Current account balance: -5.0 (2019), -8.8 (2020), -13.0 (2021), -11.1 (2022), -4.5 (2023), -4.3 (2024).\n- Exports of goods and services, f.o.b. (annual percent change): -5.9 (2019), -41.3 (2020), 56.7 (2021), 9.9 (2022), 13.3 (2023), 7.9 (2024).\n  - Of which: tourism receipts: -73.8 (2020), -23.8 (2021), 313.1 (2022), 29.7 (2023), 12.0 (2024), 6.9 (2025).\n- Imports of goods and services, f.o.b. (annual percent change): -2.2 (2019), -29.1 (2020), 16.0 (2021), 32.9 (2022), -0.2 (2023), 12.3 (2024).\n- Revenues (incl. grants) as percent of GDP: 22.1 (2019), 21.6 (2020), 24.1 (2021), 24.3 (2022), 24.2 (2023), 23.3 (2024), 23.0 (2025), 23.2 (2026).\n- Expenditure, excl. net lending (percent of GDP): 33.5 (2019), 40.4 (2020), 31.0 (2021), 29.2 (2022), 28.9 (2023), 28.4 (2024), 27.3 (2025).\n- Public sector debt, fiscal year (percent of GDP): 81.1 (2019), 91.9 (2020), 85.9 (2021), 81.2 (2022), 78.3 (2023), 78.1 (2024), 77.6 (2025), 77.3 (2026), 76.9 (2027)."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Risks to the outlook",
      "content": "- Downside risks cited include:\n  - Deterioration in global growth.\n  - Higher-than-anticipated fuel and food prices.\n  - Extreme climate events.\n- Structural vulnerabilities: eroded fiscal and external buffers during the pandemic; long-term vulnerabilities from climate change and an ageing population."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Executive Board assessment and policy recommendations",
      "content": "- Overall assessment:\n  - Directors welcomed Mauritius’ strong economic recovery and supportive policy response.\n  - Directors stressed that challenges and downside risks remain despite favorable growth outlook.\n- Fiscal policy:\n  - Recommended a gradual and growth‑friendly fiscal consolidation over the medium term to rebuild fiscal buffers and further reduce public debt.\n  - Specific fiscal measures recommended: mobilizing tax revenue, containing current spending, and safeguarding critical social spending to protect the most vulnerable.\n  - Called for reforming the pension system and strengthening public financial management, including streamlining extra‑budgetary special funds.\n  - Welcomed the reinstatement of the public debt ceiling framework and recommended it be further strengthened.\n- Monetary and exchange rate policy:\n  - Commended the new monetary policy framework for helping contain inflationary pressures.\n  - Advised the Bank of Mauritius (BOM) to stand ready to tighten the monetary policy stance should inflationary pressures reemerge.\n  - Recommended resuming uncapped auctions to better align the interbank rate with the key policy rate and enhancing monetary policy transmission, including via communication strategy improvements.\n  - Suggested amendments to the BOM Act to help preserve BOM independence and exploring options to gradually phase out the central bank’s ownership of the Mauritius Investment Corporation.\n  - Supported continued exchange rate flexibility and opportunistic foreign exchange purchases, consistent with the monetary policy framework, to bolster foreign reserve buffers.\n  - Stressed the need for continued close monitoring of financial sector risks.\n- Structural reforms and long-term growth:\n  - Urged embracing structural transformation to strengthen the external position, secure resilient and sustainable long‑term growth, and achieve high‑income status.\n  - Key reform areas: boosting female labor force participation, addressing skill mismatches, fostering digitalization, strengthening governance and anti‑corruption frameworks, promoting external competitiveness and diversification, and enhancing climate‑resilient infrastructure investment.\n  - Commended strengthening of the AML/CFT framework and encouraged sustaining this progress."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Institutional follow-up",
      "content": "- It is expected that the next Article IV consultation with Mauritius will be held on the standard 12‑month cycle.\n\nPress Release No. PR24/168 — IMF Communications Department, May 16, 2024.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg\n- The Executive Board\n- Mauritius and the IMF\n- IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2024/05/16/pr24168-mauritius-imf-executive-board-concludes-2024-article-iv-consultation"
    }
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    "Published: May 16, 2024",
    "Real GDP growth reached 8.9 percent in 2022 and an estimated 7 percent in 2023; output has now exceeded its pre-pandemic level.",
    "Real GDP growth by year (selected): 2.9 (2019), -14.5 (2020), 3.4 (2021), 8.9 (2022), 7.0 (2023), projected 4.9 (2024).",
    "Inflation averaged 7 percent in 2023, supported by lower international commodity prices.",
    "Consumer prices inflation (period average): 0.5 (2019), 2.5 (2020), 10.8 (2021), 7.0 (2023).",
    "Consumer prices inflation (end of period): 0.9 (2019), 2.7 (2020), 6.8 (2022), 12.2 (2023), 3.9 (2024), 5.1 (2025).",
    "External current account deficit narrowed sharply in 2023 to 4.5 percent of GDP.",
    "Real GDP growth projected at 4.9 percent in 2024 and around 3.5 percent in the medium term (in line with pre-pandemic growth).",
    "Headline inflation projected to ease to 4.9 percent on average in 2024 and 3.5 percent thereafter (in line with the Bank of Mauritius’ medium-term inflation target).",
    "External current account deficit expected to remain at 4.5 percent of GDP in 2024 and about 4 percent over the medium term.",
    "Public debt, estimated at 81 percent of GDP in June 2023, is projected to moderate over the medium term.",
    "Selected forward-looking indicators (projections from Table 1):",
    "Current account balance: -5.0 (2019), -8.8 (2020), -13.0 (2021), -11.1 (2022), -4.5 (2023), -4.3 (2024).",
    "Exports of goods and services, f.o.b. (annual percent change): -5.9 (2019), -41.3 (2020), 56.7 (2021), 9.9 (2022), 13.3 (2023), 7.9 (2024).",
    "Imports of goods and services, f.o.b. (annual percent change): -2.2 (2019), -29.1 (2020), 16.0 (2021), 32.9 (2022), -0.2 (2023), 12.3 (2024).",
    "Revenues (incl. grants) as percent of GDP: 22.1 (2019), 21.6 (2020), 24.1 (2021), 24.3 (2022), 24.2 (2023), 23.3 (2024), 23.0 (2025), 23.2 (2026).",
    "Expenditure, excl. net lending (percent of GDP): 33.5 (2019), 40.4 (2020), 31.0 (2021), 29.2 (2022), 28.9 (2023), 28.4 (2024), 27.3 (2025).",
    "Public sector debt, fiscal year (percent of GDP): 81.1 (2019), 91.9 (2020), 85.9 (2021), 81.2 (2022), 78.3 (2023), 78.1 (2024), 77.6 (2025), 77.3 (2026), 76.9 (2027).",
    "Downside risks cited include:",
    "Structural vulnerabilities: eroded fiscal and external buffers during the pandemic; long-term vulnerabilities from climate change and an ageing population.",
    "Overall assessment:",
    "Fiscal policy:",
    "Monetary and exchange rate policy:",
    "Structural reforms and long-term growth:",
    "It is expected that the next Article IV consultation with Mauritius will be held on the standard 12‑month cycle.",
    "[https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg](https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg)",
    "[The Executive Board](https://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/memdir/eds.aspx)",
    "[Mauritius and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/MUS/index.htm)",
    "[IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)",
    "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm](http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
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