{ "title": "Transcript of IMF Press Briefing", "publication": "IMF News, May 16, 2024", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2024/05/16/tr051624-transcript-of-com-regular-presser", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2024/05/16/tr051624-transcript-of-com-regular-presser", "overlayPath": "/en/news/articles/2024/05/16/tr051624-transcript-of-com-regular-presser/index.md", "summary": "Good morning, everyone, both to those of us here in person and also those joining us online. Welcome to this IMF Press Briefing. I am Julie Kozack, Director of Communications at the IMF. As usual, this briefing is embargoed until 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time in the U.S.", "publishDate": "2024-05-16", "sections": [ { "heading": "Announcements and Managing Director / FDMD travel", "content": "- Managing Director visiting Tajikistan today and tomorrow to meet authorities and stakeholders on Tajikistan's economy and IMF support.\n- Managing Director schedule:\n - London on Tuesday, May 21st: press conference to present UK Article IV consultation findings; bilateral meetings with UK authorities.\n - Italy from May 21st to 23rd: participate in G-7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting in Stresa.\n- First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath travel:\n - Beijing from May 26th to 29th for the 2024 China Article IV mission; media briefing on May 29th (further details to be provided closer to the event).\n - Geneva at end of month for UN's AI For Good Summit; speech on May 30th." }, { "heading": "Global trade, tariffs, and fragmentation", "content": "- IMF position:\n - Supports an open and rules-based trading system.\n - Encourages U.S. and China to work together and urges all countries to resolve differences within multilateral frameworks.\n- Recent trade-restriction trend:\n - 1,000 trade restrictions in 2019.\n - 3,000 trade restrictions in 2023.\n- Estimated global losses from fragmentation:\n - Range from 0.2 percent of global GDP all the way up to 7 percent of global GDP.\n - 7 percent of global GDP described as the combined size of Germany's and Japan's economies.\n- Policy emphasis:\n - Improve security of supply chains while avoiding fragmentation; seek balance through cooperation." }, { "heading": "Ukraine, EFF program status, and debt sustainability", "content": "- March 21 of this year: Executive Board completed the third review of Ukraine's program; disbursement of $880 million enabled.\n- Outlook: Ukrainian economy shows remarkable resilience but faces exceptionally high war-related uncertainty.\n- Program implementation:\n - Authorities met all structural benchmarks and all but one quantitative performance criteria at the time of the third review.\n- Next steps:\n - Mission expected in the coming weeks to conduct the next review.\n - IMF expects to bring that review to the Executive Board by the end of June.\n - The team will prepare an updated macroeconomic framework and an updated debt sustainability analysis, to be published with the Staff Report following Executive Board approval." }, { "heading": "Argentina — program progress, policy evolution, and disbursement", "content": "- Recent action:\n - Staff-level agreement reached (this week) on the 8th review of the program; contingent on Executive Board approval in the coming weeks.\n- Key outcomes and indicators:\n - First quarterly fiscal surplus in 16 years.\n - Rapid turnaround in international reserves and improvement in the central bank's balance sheet.\n - Rapid reduction in inflation: monthly headline inflation fell to 8.8 percent in April, from over 25 percent in December (month-on-month).\n - This will be the first review of this program where all quantitative performance criteria have been met.\n - IMF expects the economy to start growing again in the second half of this year.\n- Policy guidance (three dimensions):\n - Fiscal:\n - Improve quality of fiscal consolidation to ensure durability and fairness.\n - Improve efficiency and progressivity of the tax system.\n - Ensure social assistance is sufficient and well targeted.\n - Monetary and FX:\n - Monetary policy must continue to evolve to anchor inflation and inflation expectations.\n - FX policy should become more flexible over time to safeguard further improvement in reserve coverage.\n - FX controls to be gradually eased as conditions allow; transition to a new monetary policy regime involving currency competition (peso and other currencies freely usable), similar to regimes in Peru and Uruguay.\n - Reforms:\n - Unlock barriers to entry for firms, promote formal employment, attract private investment, and broaden political support for stabilization and reform.\n- Disbursement tied to review:\n - Disbursement in line with program: $800 million for completion of this review.\n- IMF note: staff-level agreement was reached this week (correction to prior misstated timing)." }, { "heading": "Pakistan — Stand-by Arrangement and ongoing mission", "content": "- April 29 of this year: Executive Board completed the second review of the Stand-by Arrangement for Pakistan; disbursement of about $1.1 billion.\n- Current status:\n - A mission led by Nathan Porter is meeting with authorities to discuss the next phase of IMF engagement and their request for a new program; IMF will communicate findings after mission concludes." }, { "heading": "United States — inflation, Fed policy, and outlook", "content": "- IMF observations:\n - U.S. economy has been remarkably resilient despite shocks and sharp tightening in 2022 and 2023.\n - Recent inflation data are overall higher than desired; core PCE inflation was stable in March, while services inflation remained relatively elevated.\n - IMF advises the Fed to be cautious and data dependent in deciding policy in the coming months.\n - IMF Chief Economist previously noted possible rate cuts later this year, but recent data underscore uncertainty." }, { "heading": "Russian assets — IMF stance", "content": "- IMF position:\n - Decisions on confiscation or use of assets are for relevant courts and jurisdictions to determine.\n - Any action must have sufficient legal underpinnings and must not undermine the functioning of the international monetary system." }, { "heading": "Mexico and Ecuador", "content": "- Mexico:\n - IMF does not comment on elections; economy continues to expand and inflation is receding since early 2023.\n - Policy guidance: monetary policy should remain data dependent; fiscal consolidation plan needed to preserve fiscal sustainability; reforms to boost labor participation (including female labor force participation), tackle corruption and crime, and expand financial inclusion.\n- Ecuador:\n - IMF staff and Ecuadorian authorities reached staff-level agreement on an EFF arrangement for about $4 billion (subject to Executive Board approval).\n - Authorities' measures:\n - Implemented a VAT rate hike of three percentage points.\n - Implemented transitory revenue measures.\n - Actions contributed to sovereign spreads falling from over 2,000 basis points in early 2024 to below 1,200 basis points.\n - Authorities have taken actions to stabilize the security situation.\n - Arrangement aims to strengthen fiscal sustainability, safeguard macroeconomic stability, and foster strong and inclusive growth." }, { "heading": "Zambia and Ethiopia", "content": "- Zambia:\n - IMF team visited Lusaka from April 24th through May 7th.\n - Zambia has made commendable progress on reforms, including significant fiscal efforts while scaling up social spending.\n - Ongoing discussions focus on:\n - Assessing economic impact of the drought.\n - Agreeing policies to support completion of the third review amid difficult financing conditions.\n - IMF will communicate further when discussions reach fruition.\n- Ethiopia:\n - IMF mission visited Addis Ababa from March 19th through April 2nd; discussions continued during the Spring Meetings and virtually thereafter.\n - Substantial progress made toward establishing IMF support for the authorities' economic program; virtual discussions are ongoing and updates will be provided as they evolve." }, { "heading": "Kenya — 7th review and recent floods", "content": "- IMF regrets loss of life and property from recent heavy rains and floods in Kenya.\n- Status:\n - Discussions on the 7th review of the EFF program are ongoing and include assessment of the economic impact of the floods.\n - Discussions will evaluate program performance to date and authorities' plans for policies and reforms.\n - IMF will provide further details as discussions continue." }, { "heading": "Ghana, Cote d'Ivoire, and Mali", "content": "- Ghana:\n - April 13: IMF staff and Ghanaian authorities reached staff-level agreement for the second review.\n - Aim to bring the review to the Executive Board before the end of June.\n - Board approval would give Ghana access to about $360 million.\n - Signs of stabilization: 2023 growth higher than anticipated, rapidly declining inflation, improved fiscal and external positions, and reduced exchange rate volatility.\n - Progress on comprehensive debt restructuring: domestic debt exchange completed last year; January 12 agreement in principle with official bilateral creditors; engagement with external private creditors ongoing.\n- Cote d'Ivoire:\n - Staff-level agreement reached on April 8 for:\n - Second review of the EFF/ECF program and first review of the RSF.\n - Arrangement sizes: 3.5 billion (EFF/ECF) and 1.3 billion (RSF).\n - Completion by Executive Board should lead to two disbursements under the EFF/ECF blended program of about $493 million and an additional $81 million under the RSF.\n - Authorities advancing reform agenda for macroeconomic stability, economic transformation, and climate resilience.\n- Mali:\n - Staff-level agreement on emergency financing via the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF); Article IV concluded on April 30.\n - Mali has faced multiple shocks (spillovers from Russia's war in Ukraine, Red Sea disruptions, and a regional funding squeeze), contributing to higher import costs for food, fertilizers, and goods for displaced populations, straining the budget and raising cost of living." }, { "heading": "Sri Lanka — second review, debt restructuring, and next steps", "content": "- March 21 of this year: IMF staff and Sri Lankan authorities reached staff-level agreement for the second review and concluded the Article IV mission.\n- Program performance and economic indicators:\n - Rapid decline in inflation, robust reserve accumulation, initial signs of economic growth, and preservation of financial system stability.\n - Program performance described as strong.\n- Debt restructuring and conditionalities for Executive Board completion:\n - Completion by the Executive Board requires implementation of agreed prior actions and completion of the financing assurances review (to confirm multilateral partners' financing contributions).\n - Financing assurances review will assess adequate progress with debt restructuring.\n - Next steps on debt:\n - Conclude negotiations with external private creditors and implement agreements in principle with official creditors.\n - Domestic debt operations largely completed.\n - Negotiations with external bondholders ended in mid-April without agreement; discussions continue aiming for agreement in principle.\n- No Board meeting date specified in the briefing." }, { "heading": "Closing, embargo, and contact", "content": "- Briefing embargoed until 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time in the U.S.; transcript to be made available on imf.org.\n- Media contact: MEDIA RELATIONS PRESS OFFICER: Angham Al Shami; Phone: +1 202 623-7100; Email: MEDIA@IMF.org.\n- For clarifications or additional queries: media@imf.org.\n\nTranscript of IMF Press Briefing — May 16, 2024. IMF Communications Department.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- Argentina and the IMF\n- Ecuador and the IMF\n- Ghana and the IMF\n- Kenya and the IMF\n- Mali and the IMF\n- Mexico and the IMF\n- Pakistan and the IMF\n- Republic of Tajikistan and the IMF\n- Sri Lanka and the IMF\n- The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia and the IMF\n- Zambia and the IMF\n- IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet\n- Transcripts\n- PRESS CENTER\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2024/05/16/tr051624-transcript-of-com-regular-presser" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2024/05/16/tr051624-transcript-of-com-regular-presser/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2024/05/16/tr051624-transcript-of-com-regular-presser/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2024/05/16/tr051624-transcript-of-com-regular-presser/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: May 16, 2024", "Managing Director visiting Tajikistan today and tomorrow to meet authorities and stakeholders on Tajikistan's economy and IMF support.", "Managing Director schedule:", "First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath travel:", "IMF position:", "Recent trade-restriction trend:", "Estimated global losses from fragmentation:", "Policy emphasis:", "March 21 of this year: Executive Board completed the third review of Ukraine's program; disbursement of $880 million enabled.", "Outlook: Ukrainian economy shows remarkable resilience but faces exceptionally high war-related uncertainty.", "Program implementation:", "Next steps:", "Recent action:", "Key outcomes and indicators:", "Policy guidance (three dimensions):", "Disbursement tied to review:", "IMF note: staff-level agreement was reached this week (correction to prior misstated timing).", "April 29 of this year: Executive Board completed the second review of the Stand-by Arrangement for Pakistan; disbursement of about $1.1 billion.", "Current status:", "IMF observations:", "IMF position:", "Mexico:", "Ecuador:", "Zambia:", "Ethiopia:", "IMF regrets loss of life and property from recent heavy rains and floods in Kenya.", "Status:", "Ghana:", "Cote d'Ivoire:", "Mali:", "March 21 of this year: IMF staff and Sri Lankan authorities reached staff-level agreement for the second review and concluded the Article IV mission.", "Program performance and economic indicators:", "Debt restructuring and conditionalities for Executive Board completion:", "No Board meeting date specified in the briefing.", "Briefing embargoed until 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time in the U.S.; transcript to be made available on imf.org.", "Media contact: MEDIA RELATIONS PRESS OFFICER: Angham Al Shami; Phone: +1 202 623-7100; Email: MEDIA@IMF.org.", "For clarifications or additional queries: media@imf.org.", "[Argentina and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/ARG/index.htm)", "[Ecuador and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/ECU/index.htm)", "[Ghana and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/GHA/index.htm)", "[Kenya and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/KEN/index.htm)", "[Mali and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/MLI/index.htm)", "[Mexico and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/MEX/index.htm)", "[Pakistan and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/PAK/index.htm)", "[Republic of Tajikistan and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/TJK/index.htm)", "[Sri Lanka and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/LKA/index.htm)", "[The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/ETH/index.htm)", "[Zambia and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/ZMB/index.htm)", "[IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)", "[Transcripts](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)", "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)", "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)" ], "alternates": { "markdown": "/en/news/articles/2024/05/16/tr051624-transcript-of-com-regular-presser/index.md", "json": "/en/news/articles/2024/05/16/tr051624-transcript-of-com-regular-presser/index.json", "bundleManifest": "/en/news/articles/2024/05/16/tr051624-transcript-of-com-regular-presser/bundle-manifest.json" }, "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-26T02:59:46.831Z" }