{
  "title": "IMF Executive Board Concludes 2024 Article IV Consultation with Gabon",
  "publication": "IMF News, May 28, 2024",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2024/05/28/pr24187-gabon-imf-executive-board-concludes-2014-art-iv-consult",
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  "summary": "On May 24, 2024, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation with Gabon.",
  "publishDate": "2024-05-28",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Overview",
      "content": "- On May 24, 2024, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation with Gabon.\n- Gabon’s post-pandemic recovery held up well despite recent shocks; the economy hit a soft patch in 2023 because of logistics disruptions, political uncertainty, and high fuel prices for businesses.\n- Growth is set to resume toward potential growth of around 3 percent in 2024 as shocks dissipate.\n- Inflation has receded to below the 3 percent regional ceiling by the BEAC and should remain within target in the absence of further shocks.\n- Robust oil prices in the last few years have supported the external position.\n- Fiscal imbalances widened significantly in 2022–23: large nonoil deficits led to a rapid accumulation of arrears, pushed public debt to an estimated 70½ percent of GDP (above the CEMAC ceiling), and weighed on reserve accumulation.\n- Longer-term headwinds: prospect of gradually declining oil wealth, moderate diversification away from oil, projected slowdown of growth to around 2⅔ percent over the long term, and gradually dwindling current account surpluses.\n- The outlook hinges on authorities’ ability to: correct the fiscal position, make progress on transparency and diversification reforms, and address liquidity and sustainability risks from fiscal imbalances."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Executive Board Assessment",
      "content": "- Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal and welcomed Gabon’s rebound in growth and decline in inflation following multiple domestic shocks.\n- Key concerns and priorities highlighted by Directors:\n  - The currently expansive fiscal policy stance and long‑standing structural and governance weaknesses, magnified by external risks, pose significant challenges.\n  - Urgency of decisive fiscal consolidation to ensure fiscal sustainability while safeguarding large social and development needs.\n  - Improve spending efficiency and increase fiscal space through revenue measures.\n  - Adoption of a strong fiscal framework to guide policies towards sustainability.\n  - Firm commitment to good public financial management practices is critical.\n- Governance, transparency, and fiscal reporting:\n  - Commended consolidation of the Treasury Single Account and the digitalization of government services.\n  - Encouraged addressing remaining gaps in governance frameworks for public enterprises, debt and investment management, and wage bill and civil service management.\n  - Called for comprehensive accounting and reporting of public sector fiscal accounts, assets and liabilities, disclosure of mining contracts, and better gauging of the mining sector’s potential revenue contribution.\n- Diversification and private sector:\n  - Economic diversification is essential to improve living standards.\n  - Cost‑effective cross‑cutting initiatives: strengthen governance, improve business environment, ensure reliability of energy and transport infrastructure to support private sector growth.\n- Financial sector and vulnerabilities:\n  - Encourage strengthening financial sector soundness, reduce risks from the bank‑sovereign nexus, repay government arrears, and address AML/CFT framework deficiencies.\n  - Prioritize initiatives to address climate‑related vulnerabilities.\n- Statistics and capacity development:\n  - Need to improve timeliness, coverage, and accuracy of economic statistics.\n  - Encouraged continued engagement with the Fund, including through capacity development.\n- Administrative note:\n  - Next Article IV consultation with Gabon is expected to be held on the standard 12‑month cycle."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Selected Economic Indicators, 2022–25 (key figures preserved exactly as in source)",
      "content": "- Real GDP (annual percentage change): 2022: 3.0; 2023: 2.3; 2024: 2.9; 2025: 2.7\n- Real GDP — Oil: 2022: 2.5; 2023: 1.7; 2024: -0.8\n- Real GDP — Non-oil: 2022: 3.1; 2023: 2.2; 2024: 3.3\n- Real GDP per capita: 2022: 1.8; 2023: 0.0; 2024: 0.7; 2025: 0.5\n- GDP deflator: 2022: 13.6; 2023: -7.2; 2024: -0.2; 2025: -1.8\n- Consumer prices (average): 2022: 4.3; 2023: 3.6; 2024: 2.1\n- Consumer prices (end of period): 2022: 5.4\n- Terms of trade: 2022: 12.3; 2023: -21.0; 2024: 10.6; 2025: -1.7\n- Real effective exchange rate: 2022: -0.7\n- Gross national savings (percent of GDP): 2022: 40.6; 2023: 38.6; 2024: 35.9; 2025: 35.7\n- Gross domestic investment (percent of GDP): 2022: 30.0; 2023: 34.2; 2024: 32.0; 2025: 32.9\n- Public investment (percent of GDP): 2022: 3.8; 2023: 3.9\n- Broad money (annual percentage change): 2022: 15.2; 2023: 9.7; 2024: 0.9\n- Credit to the economy (annual percentage change): 2022: 15.1; 2023: 16.4; 2024: 8.2; 2025: 4.7\n- Total public debt (percent of GDP): 2022: 63.7; 2023: 70.5; 2024: 73.1; 2025: 78.9\n- Total public debt (percent of non-oil GDP): 2022: 113.2; 2023: 113.0; 2024: 115.5; 2025: 120.0\n- Overall fiscal balance (percent of GDP): 2022: -4.2; 2023: -6.4\n- Non-oil primary balance (percent of non-oil GDP): 2022: -14.1; 2023: -14.3; 2024: -15.0; 2025: -14.9\n- Government revenues (percent of GDP): 2022: 18.4; 2023: 19.9; 2024: 18.5; 2025: 17.5\n- Government expenditure (percent of GDP): 2022: 19.1; 2023: 21.7; 2024: 23.0; 2025: 23.9\n- Current account (percent of GDP): 2022: 10.7; 2023: 4.4; 2024: 2.8\n- Exports of goods and services (percent of GDP): 2022: 45.2; 2023: 41.1; 2024: 40.5; 2025: 38.7\n- Imports of goods and services (percent of GDP): 2022: 27.1; 2023: 30.4; 2024: 30.5; 2025: 30.3\n- External public debt (percent of GDP): 2022: 34.5; 2023: 34.1; 2024: 30.2; 2025: 26.7\n- Gross international reserves (billions of US Dollars): 2022: 1.4; 2023: 1.0\n- Gross international reserves (in months of next year's imports): 2022: 1.9\n- Nominal GDP (billions of CFA Francs): 2022: 13,118; 2023: 12,447; 2024: 12,782; 2025: 12,893\n- Nominal GDP per capita (US Dollars): 2022: 9,752; 2023: 9,290; 2024: 9,308; 2025: 9,148\n- Nominal non-oil GDP (billions of CFA Francs): 2022: 7,385; 2023: 7,761; 2024: 8,093; 2025: 8,474\n- CFA Franc per US Dollars (average): 2022: 622.4; 2023: 606.5\n- Crude oil price (Brent, US Dollars per barrel): 2022: 99.0; 2023: 82.3; 2024: 80.6; 2025: 75.6"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy recommendations and priorities emphasized by Directors (enumerated)",
      "content": "- Undertake decisive fiscal consolidation while protecting social and development spending.\n- Improve spending efficiency and increase fiscal space through revenue measures.\n- Adopt a strong fiscal framework to guide policies toward medium‑term sustainability.\n- Strengthen public financial management practices, including consolidation of the Treasury Single Account and digitalization of government services.\n- Address governance gaps for public enterprises, debt and investment management, and wage bill and civil service management.\n- Improve transparency: initiate comprehensive accounting and reporting of public sector fiscal accounts, assets and liabilities; disclose mining contracts; better assess the mining sector’s revenue potential.\n- Advance economic diversification through governance reforms, improved business environment, and reliable energy and transport infrastructure.\n- Strengthen financial sector soundness: reduce bank‑sovereign nexus risks, repay government arrears, and fix AML/CFT deficiencies.\n- Prioritize actions to address climate‑related vulnerabilities.\n- Improve timeliness, coverage, and accuracy of economic statistics.\n- Continue engagement with the Fund, including capacity development support.\n\nIMF Communications Department, Press Release No. 24/187 — IMF Executive Board concluded the Article IV consultation with Gabon on May 24, 2024.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- Cameroon and the IMF\n- Central African Republic and the IMF\n- Chad and the IMF\n- Gabon and the IMF\n- IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet\n- IMF Borrowing Arrangements: GAB and NAB -- A Factsheet\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2024/05/28/pr24187-gabon-imf-executive-board-concludes-2014-art-iv-consult"
    }
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    "Published: May 28, 2024",
    "On May 24, 2024, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation with Gabon.",
    "Gabon’s post-pandemic recovery held up well despite recent shocks; the economy hit a soft patch in 2023 because of logistics disruptions, political uncertainty, and high fuel prices for businesses.",
    "Growth is set to resume toward potential growth of around 3 percent in 2024 as shocks dissipate.",
    "Inflation has receded to below the 3 percent regional ceiling by the BEAC and should remain within target in the absence of further shocks.",
    "Robust oil prices in the last few years have supported the external position.",
    "Fiscal imbalances widened significantly in 2022–23: large nonoil deficits led to a rapid accumulation of arrears, pushed public debt to an estimated 70½ percent of GDP (above the CEMAC ceiling), and weighed on reserve accumulation.",
    "Longer-term headwinds: prospect of gradually declining oil wealth, moderate diversification away from oil, projected slowdown of growth to around 2⅔ percent over the long term, and gradually dwindling current account surpluses.",
    "The outlook hinges on authorities’ ability to: correct the fiscal position, make progress on transparency and diversification reforms, and address liquidity and sustainability risks from fiscal imbalances.",
    "Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal and welcomed Gabon’s rebound in growth and decline in inflation following multiple domestic shocks.",
    "Key concerns and priorities highlighted by Directors:",
    "Governance, transparency, and fiscal reporting:",
    "Diversification and private sector:",
    "Financial sector and vulnerabilities:",
    "Statistics and capacity development:",
    "Administrative note:",
    "Real GDP (annual percentage change): 2022: 3.0; 2023: 2.3; 2024: 2.9; 2025: 2.7",
    "Real GDP — Oil: 2022: 2.5; 2023: 1.7; 2024: -0.8",
    "Real GDP — Non-oil: 2022: 3.1; 2023: 2.2; 2024: 3.3",
    "Real GDP per capita: 2022: 1.8; 2023: 0.0; 2024: 0.7; 2025: 0.5",
    "GDP deflator: 2022: 13.6; 2023: -7.2; 2024: -0.2; 2025: -1.8",
    "Consumer prices (average): 2022: 4.3; 2023: 3.6; 2024: 2.1",
    "Consumer prices (end of period): 2022: 5.4",
    "Terms of trade: 2022: 12.3; 2023: -21.0; 2024: 10.6; 2025: -1.7",
    "Real effective exchange rate: 2022: -0.7",
    "Gross national savings (percent of GDP): 2022: 40.6; 2023: 38.6; 2024: 35.9; 2025: 35.7",
    "Gross domestic investment (percent of GDP): 2022: 30.0; 2023: 34.2; 2024: 32.0; 2025: 32.9",
    "Public investment (percent of GDP): 2022: 3.8; 2023: 3.9",
    "Broad money (annual percentage change): 2022: 15.2; 2023: 9.7; 2024: 0.9",
    "Credit to the economy (annual percentage change): 2022: 15.1; 2023: 16.4; 2024: 8.2; 2025: 4.7",
    "Total public debt (percent of GDP): 2022: 63.7; 2023: 70.5; 2024: 73.1; 2025: 78.9",
    "Total public debt (percent of non-oil GDP): 2022: 113.2; 2023: 113.0; 2024: 115.5; 2025: 120.0",
    "Overall fiscal balance (percent of GDP): 2022: -4.2; 2023: -6.4",
    "Non-oil primary balance (percent of non-oil GDP): 2022: -14.1; 2023: -14.3; 2024: -15.0; 2025: -14.9",
    "Government revenues (percent of GDP): 2022: 18.4; 2023: 19.9; 2024: 18.5; 2025: 17.5",
    "Government expenditure (percent of GDP): 2022: 19.1; 2023: 21.7; 2024: 23.0; 2025: 23.9",
    "Current account (percent of GDP): 2022: 10.7; 2023: 4.4; 2024: 2.8",
    "Exports of goods and services (percent of GDP): 2022: 45.2; 2023: 41.1; 2024: 40.5; 2025: 38.7",
    "Imports of goods and services (percent of GDP): 2022: 27.1; 2023: 30.4; 2024: 30.5; 2025: 30.3",
    "External public debt (percent of GDP): 2022: 34.5; 2023: 34.1; 2024: 30.2; 2025: 26.7",
    "Gross international reserves (billions of US Dollars): 2022: 1.4; 2023: 1.0",
    "Gross international reserves (in months of next year's imports): 2022: 1.9",
    "Nominal GDP (billions of CFA Francs): 2022: 13,118; 2023: 12,447; 2024: 12,782; 2025: 12,893",
    "Nominal GDP per capita (US Dollars): 2022: 9,752; 2023: 9,290; 2024: 9,308; 2025: 9,148",
    "Nominal non-oil GDP (billions of CFA Francs): 2022: 7,385; 2023: 7,761; 2024: 8,093; 2025: 8,474",
    "CFA Franc per US Dollars (average): 2022: 622.4; 2023: 606.5",
    "Crude oil price (Brent, US Dollars per barrel): 2022: 99.0; 2023: 82.3; 2024: 80.6; 2025: 75.6",
    "Undertake decisive fiscal consolidation while protecting social and development spending.",
    "Improve spending efficiency and increase fiscal space through revenue measures.",
    "Adopt a strong fiscal framework to guide policies toward medium‑term sustainability.",
    "Strengthen public financial management practices, including consolidation of the Treasury Single Account and digitalization of government services.",
    "Address governance gaps for public enterprises, debt and investment management, and wage bill and civil service management.",
    "Improve transparency: initiate comprehensive accounting and reporting of public sector fiscal accounts, assets and liabilities; disclose mining contracts; better assess the mining sector’s revenue potential.",
    "Advance economic diversification through governance reforms, improved business environment, and reliable energy and transport infrastructure.",
    "Strengthen financial sector soundness: reduce bank‑sovereign nexus risks, repay government arrears, and fix AML/CFT deficiencies.",
    "Prioritize actions to address climate‑related vulnerabilities.",
    "Improve timeliness, coverage, and accuracy of economic statistics.",
    "Continue engagement with the Fund, including capacity development support.",
    "[Cameroon and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/CMR/index.htm)",
    "[Central African Republic and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/CAF/index.htm)",
    "[Chad and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/TCD/index.htm)",
    "[Gabon and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/GAB/index.htm)",
    "[IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)",
    "[IMF Borrowing Arrangements: GAB and NAB -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/sheets/2023/stand-by-arrangement-sba)",
    "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm](http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
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