## IMF Executive Board Concludes 2024 Article IV Consultation with Libya _IMF News, July 11, 2024_ ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [IMF Executive Board Concludes 2024 Article IV Consultation with Libya](https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2024/07/11/pr24257-libya-imf-exec-board-concludes-2024-art-iv-consult) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2024/07/11/pr24257-libya-imf-exec-board-concludes-2024-art-iv-consult/index.md) - [Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2024/07/11/pr24257-libya-imf-exec-board-concludes-2024-art-iv-consult/index.json) - [Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2024/07/11/pr24257-libya-imf-exec-board-concludes-2024-art-iv-consult/bundle-manifest.json) ## Bibliographic details - Published: July 11, 2024 --- ### Overview - The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund concluded the Article IV consultation with Libya on Monday, July 1, 2024. - Libya remains a fragile state trapped in political uncertainty; episodes of active conflict have become less frequent. - Several shocks occurred, including tropical storm Daniel in September 2023, causing devastating floods and catastrophic damage; the disaster had only a small impact on economic growth because Libya’s GDP is mainly based on energy exports. ### 2023 Economic developments - Real GDP is estimated to have expanded by 10 percent in 2023, largely owing to a rebound from oil production stoppages of 2022. - The current account surplus declined in line with the fall in oil prices, but reserves remained at a comfortable level. - Government revenues declined despite the boost in oil production; fiscal expenditures surged driven by expansion in the wage bill and energy subsidies. - Reported inflation remained low despite depreciation of the parallel market exchange rate, due to prevalence of administered prices and limited geographic coverage of available price indices. ### Policy measures and authorities’ response - The Central Bank of Libya (CBL) tightened restrictions on the issuance of letters of credit and lowered limits on individuals’ foreign exchange purchases. - A temporary 27 percent tax was imposed on all foreign exchange purchases. - The CBL is expected to maintain the current stock of international reserves. - The country will continue to have no public debt as conventionally understood. ### Outlook and risks - The outlook is dominated by hydrocarbon production dynamics. - Baseline projection: declining fiscal and external balances over the coming years, in line with a projected decline in global oil prices. - Balance of risks is tilted to the downside; uncertainty remains high due to continuing political stalemate and possible geopolitical spillovers. - Directors noted that addressing exchange rate pressures would require improved fiscal expenditure controls and proper fiscal budgeting to avoid procyclical spending and reduce risk of a potential loss of reserves. ### Executive Board Assessment and recommendations - Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal and welcomed the generally positive outlook, while stressing significant economic and political challenges from fragility, political uncertainty, and hydrocarbon dependence. - Key recommendations: - Strengthen fiscal and monetary policy coordination. - Implement reforms to promote stronger, more inclusive private sector-led growth. - Implement critical capacity development (CD) with improved coordination with international partners. - Strengthen the fiscal framework and address procyclical spending bias to support macroeconomic resilience and improve resource wealth management. - Increase fiscal transparency, improve tax administration and compliance, strengthen budget preparation, and enhance the public financial management framework. - Strengthen the management of state-owned enterprises to reduce fiscal risk. - Secure a durable political settlement to underpin progress on reunification of the central bank and maintain integrity of the payments system. - Implement regulatory and governance reforms in the banking sector, including to strengthen the AML/CFT framework. - Enhance data provision and statistical capacity, supported by Fund CD; establish a coordinating body to facilitate CD provision and implementation. ### Key economic and financial indicators (selected) - Real GDP (annual percent change): 2021: 28.3; 2022: -8.3; 2023: 10.2; 2024: 7.8; 2025: 6.9; 2026: 4.2; 2027: 2.0; 2028: 2.1; 2029: 2.3 - Nonhydrocarbon (annual percent change): 2021: 5.9; 2022: 7.9; 2023: -0.6; 2024: 3.8; 2025: 5.6; 2026: 5.3; 2027: 5.8; 2028: 6.0 - Hydrocarbon (annual percent change): 2021: 45.0; 2022: -17.0; 2023: 17.8; 2024: 7.7; 2025: 3.6; 2026: 0.0 - Nominal GDP in billions of Libyan dinars: 2021: 159.0; 2022: 208.2; 2023: 212.0; 2024: 221.9; 2025: 232.3; 2026: 240.3; 2027: 244.5; 2028: 250.6; 2029: 258.6 - Nominal GDP in billions of U.S. dollars: 2021: 35.2; 2022: 43.3; 2023: 44.0; 2024: 46.0; 2025: 48.3; 2026: 50.2; 2027: 51.3; 2028: 52.8; 2029: 54.4 - Per capita GDP in thousands of U.S. dollars: 2021: 5.2; 2022: 6.4; 2023: 6.7; 2024: 7.1; 2025: 7.2; 2026: 7.3; 2027: 7.5 - GDP deflator (annual percent change): 2021: 90.4; 2022: 42.7; 2023: -11.4; 2024: 1.4; 2025: -2.1; 2026: -0.7; 2027: -0.3; 2028: 0.9 - CPI inflation (period average): 2021: 2.9; 2022: 4.5; 2023: 2.4; 2024: 2.6 - Central government revenues (percent of GDP): 2021: 79.5; 2022: 85.8; 2023: 73.5; 2024: 64.6; 2025: 63.3; 2026: 60.8; 2027: 57.3; 2028: 53.7; 2029: 50.3 - Of which: Hydrocarbon revenues (percent of GDP): 2021: 78.1; 2022: 83.9; 2023: 71.5; 2024: 62.9; 2025: 61.6; 2026: 59.0; 2027: 55.5; 2028: 51.8 - Expenditure and net lending (percent of GDP): 2021: 64.7; 2022: 62.2; 2023: 65.3; 2024: 63.1; 2025: 62.1; 2026: 60.3; 2027: 57.2 - Capital expenditures (percent of GDP): 2021: 10.9; 2022: 8.4; 2023: 8.7; 2024: 5.4; 2025: 5.7; 2026: 4.7; 2027: 3.2 - Overall balance (percent of GDP): 2021: 14.8; 2022: 23.6; 2023: 8.2; 2024: 1.5; 2025: 1.3; 2026: 0.5; 2027: 0.1 - Nonhydrocarbon balance (percent of GDP): 2021: -63.3; 2022: -60.3; 2023: -61.4; 2024: -60.4; 2025: -58.5; 2026: -55.4; 2027: -51.8; 2028: -48.3 - Base Money (annual percent change): 2021: 2.8; 2022: -16.9; 2023: 47.9; 2024: 24.1; 2025: 8.3; 2026: 9.0; 2027: 9.3; 2028: 10.0; 2029: 10.3 - Currency in circulation (annual percent change): 2021: -20.0; 2022: -1.4; 2023: 37.6; 2024: 2.2; 2025: 5.0 - Money and quasi-money (annual percent change): 2021: -20.3; 2022: 12.0; 2023: 3.5; 2024: 4.0 - Net credit to the government (Libyan Dinar, billion): 2021: -94.1; 2022: -114.9; 2023: -110.9; 2024: -114.8; 2025: -117.8; 2026: -119.0; 2027: -118.6; 2028: -118.4 - Exports (percent of GDP): 2021: 32.3; 2022: 37.5; 2023: 31.4; 2024: 31.6; 2025: 32.1; 2026: 31.8; 2027: 30.6; 2028: 29.7; 2029: 28.8 - Imports (percent of GDP): 2021: 17.0; 2022: 17.2; 2023: 17.6; 2024: 19.1; 2025: 19.5; 2026: 19.3; 2027: 18.1; 2028: 17.4 - Current account balance (percent of GDP): 2021: 12.4; 2022: 6.8; 2023: 7.0; 2024: 6.3; 2025: 6.2 - Capital Account (including E&O) (percent of GDP): 2021: -7.0; 2022: -7.2; 2023: -2.8; 2024: -6.1; 2025: -6.4; 2026: -6.0; 2027: -6.2; 2028: -5.7 - Gross official reserves (in billions of U.S. dollars): 2021: 69.4; 2022: 74.1; 2023: 78.3; 2024: 79.0; 2025: 79.8 - Reserves in months of next year's imports: 2021: 32.2; 2022: 33.6; 2023: 34.6; 2024: 34.0; 2025: 33.9; 2026: 34.5; 2027: 36.9; 2028: 38.5; 2029: 39.0 - Gross official reserves in percentage of Broad Money: 2021: 317.0; 2022: 318.2; 2023: 261.3; 2024: 254.3; 2025: 245.0; 2026: 234.6; 2027: 223.5; 2028: 212.4; 2029: 202.2 - Total foreign assets (percent of GDP): 2021: 79.7; 2022: 84.2; 2023: 88.5; 2024: 89.3; 2025: 89.9; 2026: 90.2 - Official exchange rate (LD/US$, period average): 2021: 4.8 - Parallel market exchange rate (LD/US$, period average): 2021: 5.1 - Parallel market exchange rate (LD/US$, end of period): 6.1 - Crude oil production (mbd): 2021: 1.2; 2022: 1.0 - Of which: Exports (mbd): 0.8 - Crude oil price (US$/bbl, WEO adjusted for Libya): 2021: 64.4; 2022: 89.6; 2023: 75.0; 2024: 72.3; 2025: 68.6; 2026: 65.9; 2027: 58.4 *Source: IMF Communications Department — Press Release No. 24/267; Executive Board conclusions on the 2024 Article IV consultation with Libya.* --- ## References - [https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg](https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg) - [The Executive Board](https://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/memdir/eds.aspx) - [Libya and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/LBY/index.htm) - [IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance) - [Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews) - [PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/) - [http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm](http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm) - [https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home) _Source: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2024/07/11/pr24257-libya-imf-exec-board-concludes-2024-art-iv-consult_