{ "title": "Transcript of IMF Press Briefing", "publication": "IMF News, September 12, 2024", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2024/09/12/tr091224-transcript-of-imf-press-briefing", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2024/09/12/tr091224-transcript-of-imf-press-briefing", "overlayPath": "/en/news/articles/2024/09/12/tr091224-transcript-of-imf-press-briefing/index.md", "summary": "MS. KOZACK: Good morning to those of you here in person and those online as well. Welcome to this IMF press briefing. I'm Julie Kozack, Director of the Communications Department of the IMF. As usual, this briefing is embargoed until 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time in the United States.", "publishDate": "2024-09-12", "sections": [ { "heading": "Announcements and logistics", "content": "- Briefing embargoed until 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time in the United States.\n- Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva:\n - Will attend the informal Ecofin meeting on Friday, September 13th, in Budapest, Hungary; will hold bilateral meetings while in Budapest.\n - Will be in New York City during the week of September 23rd for the 79th General Assembly of the United Nations; will hold bilateral meetings and participate in multiple events.\n- First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath:\n - Will deliver the Whitaker Lecture at the Bank of Ireland on Wednesday, September 18th; an embargoed draft of the speech will be available the day before on the IMF's Press Center.\n- Deputy Managing Director Bo Li:\n - Will visit Astana, Kazakhstan on Monday, September 16th.\n- Deputy Managing Director Kenji Okamura:\n - Will be in Mongolia on October 3rd and 4th.\n- ECB President Christine Lagarde:\n - Will give a lecture at the 2024 Michel Camdessus Central Banking Conference on Friday, September 20th, followed by a one-on-one conversation with MD Kristalina Georgieva at IMF headquarters in Washington, D.C." }, { "heading": "United States economy and Federal Reserve outlook", "content": "- Key observations:\n - The U.S. economy has performed \"remarkably strong\" over the past few years; the U.S. is described as \"the only G-20 economy whose GDP level now exceeds the pre-pandemic trend.\"\n - Disinflation has occurred with less cost than feared; Fed actions, supply-side gains, and strong productivity growth aided the disinflation process.\n- Forecasts and timing:\n - Core PCE inflation is expected to end this year around 2.5 percent and to be back to the 2 percent target by mid 2025.\n - IMF expects U.S. GDP growth on a fourth quarter over fourth quarter basis by the end of this year to be around 2 percent.\n - The balance of risks to inflation has shifted; upside risks are \"less pronounced\" though not entirely gone.\n - The IMF views the \"imminent start of a loosening cycle as telegraphed by the Fed\" as appropriate, with the Fed needing to \"calibrate the pace and extent of rate cuts with incoming economic data going forward.\"\n- Process note:\n - The World Economic Outlook (WEO) update in October will take a fresh look at data and forecasts." }, { "heading": "Ukraine — Staff-Level Agreement and financing", "content": "- Staff-Level Agreement:\n - On September 10th, IMF Staff and Ukrainian authorities reached a Staff-Level Agreement for the Fifth Review under the EFF Program.\n - Subject to Executive Board approval, Ukraine would have access to $1.1 billion.\n - Program performance described as \"strong\"; authorities met all end-June quantitative performance criteria and structural benchmarks for the Fifth Review.\n - Understandings reached on policies and reforms to sustain macroeconomic stability during the war.\n- Domestic revenue mobilization:\n - Domestic revenue mobilization over the medium term is a \"key pillar\" of the program to create space for critical spending and to preserve buffers and restore fiscal and debt sustainability.\n- G7 $50 billion pledge and ERA:\n - G7 authorities are in intensive discussions on modalities, terms, and conditions to fulfill their pledge to provide $50 billion in financial support to Ukraine via the Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration (ERA).\n - IMF emphasizes that such support should be provided in a way consistent with restoring debt sustainability." }, { "heading": "Pakistan — EFF timetable and assurances", "content": "- Staff-Level Agreement and Board scheduling:\n - IMF Staff reached a Staff-Level Agreement with Pakistani authorities on a new 37-month EFF arrangement on July 12th, 2024.\n - The Board meeting is scheduled to take place on September 25th.\n - Scheduling follows Pakistan obtaining necessary financing assurances from its development partners.\n- Context:\n - The new EFF arrangement follows the successful implementation of the 2023 9-month Stand-by Arrangement.\n - Consistent policy making has supported economic stability in Pakistan, including a resumption of growth, significant disinflation, and a significant increase in international reserves." }, { "heading": "Russia — Resumption of Article IV consultations", "content": "- Legal/obligation basis:\n - Article IV Consultations are mutual obligations under the IMF Articles of Agreement.\n- Rationale for resumption:\n - Since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s economic situation was \"exceptionally unsettled,\" complicating Article IV analysis; with a more settled economic situation, consultations are resuming.\n- Mission format and timing:\n - Team will hold virtual discussions from September 16th and will travel to Russia for in-person meetings.\n - The mission will meet with Russian authorities and a number of different stakeholders to discuss developments, prospects, and policies.\n- Note on Executive Director nomination:\n - The election and voting process for Executive Directors at the IMF is underway; IMF management did not comment further on specific nominations." }, { "heading": "Sub-Saharan Africa — Kenya and regional context", "content": "- Regional pressures:\n - Sub-Saharan Africa faces a \"significant funding squeeze\" due to tighter global financial conditions and reduced availability of concessional financing.\n - Policymakers face a balancing act among priority spending (social programs, health, education), rising public debt, and boosting domestic revenues.\n- Kenya:\n - IMF aims to help establish sound macroeconomic fundamentals for sustainable and inclusive growth and job creation.\n - Program includes initiatives to improve governance and transparency and ensure responsible use of public funds.\n - IMF staff conducting a fact-finding visit to Kenya; further updates to be provided after the visit.\n- Broader IMF approach:\n - Policy objectives should be subject to broad consultation to build public support." }, { "heading": "Argentina — EFF implementation and related matters", "content": "- Program status:\n - Since the successful conclusion of the Eight Review of the EFF, Argentine authorities have continued program implementation.\n - Data through mid-2024 suggests fiscal and reserve targets were met; implementation has resulted in a \"sizable reduction in inflation\" and signs of a nascent recovery in economic activity and real wages.\n - IMF Staff continue technical discussions within the current EFF program context.\n- Specific issues raised:\n - Pensions: IMF emphasizes meeting fiscal targets while strengthening pension system sustainability and protecting the real value of pensions, especially for lower income retirees.\n - Litigation (YPF): IMF does not comment on ongoing legal disputes involving member countries.\n - Internal management: Western Hemisphere Director Rodrigo Valdés has delegated program negotiations to Luis Cubeddu (Deputy Director) and Ashvin Ahuja (Argentina Mission Chief), overseen by Fund management.\n- Reported figures noted in questions (no IMF confirmation provided):\n - Private reports referenced a central bank loss of about $4,000 million dollars in reserves in the last quarter (questioned during briefing)." }, { "heading": "Sri Lanka and Bangladesh — Program and missions", "content": "- Sri Lanka:\n - On June 12th, 2024 the IMF Executive Board completed the 2024 Article IV Consultation and the Second Review of the EFF, providing access of about $336 million U.S. dollars.\n - Program performance described as strong: growth reviving, inflation coming down, international reserves increasing, revenue mobilization improving; vulnerabilities remain.\n - Debt restructuring role: IMF provided an assessment of the joint working framework to Sri Lankan authorities and, at the authorities' request, shared that assessment with financial advisors of bondholders; IMF does not participate in creditor negotiations.\n - Timing of the Third Review will be discussed with the government following the September 21 presidential election.\n- Bangladesh:\n - IMF expresses condolences over loss of life in recent protests; working closely with the interim government.\n - An IMF team will visit Bangladesh in late September for a fact-finding mission to discuss economic developments and potential financing needs.\n - Reported that Bangladesh has a $5 billion request out to the IMF (raised as a question in the briefing)." }, { "heading": "IMF surcharge policy review", "content": "- Process and status:\n - A comprehensive review of the surcharge policy is underway; the last review was in 2016.\n - The Executive Board has discussed surcharges in the context of precautionary balances; the IMF met its precautionary balances target earlier this year.\n - The review will assess experience since 2016, may result in changes, and must consider implications for borrowing members and the IMF’s credit risk management framework.\n - Objective: ensure the IMF can continue to provide financing at affordable rates to members in need.\n - Engagement with the Executive Board has already started; timing and details of any policy changes to be provided later." }, { "heading": "Ghana — Program progress ahead of elections", "content": "- Program status:\n - On June 28th the IMF Executive Board completed the Second Review of Ghana's three-year EFF, giving Ghana access to $360 million U.S. dollars and bringing total disbursements under the program to about $1.6 billion.\n - Authorities’ reform efforts described as yielding positive results: 2023 growth higher than envisaged, inflation declining, and international reserves increasing.\n - Steadfast policy and reform implementation are noted as vital to restore macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability.\n - IMF welcomes Minister Adams signaling continued commitment to program policies." }, { "heading": "Nigeria, floods, and China-Africa Forum", "content": "- Nigeria:\n - Article IV Consultation concluded on May 9th.\n - Economic priorities: promote growth while bringing down inflation to address rising poverty and food insecurity.\n - Floods: recent exceptionally heavy rains caused floods; 31 million Nigerians are already affected by food insecurity.\n - IMF recommendations: rollout and broadening of the cash transfer system, including expansion to rural areas, to provide relief to affected households.\n- China-Africa Forum:\n - Chinese pledge reported to invest \"$50 billion plus over the next three years in Africa\" was raised by questioners.\n - IMF teams will assess potential inflows and investments as part of the upcoming World Economic Outlook and the Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa." }, { "heading": "Governance, central bank independence, and multilateral cooperation", "content": "- Central bank independence (Spain/Bank of Spain):\n - IMF position: central banks should maintain operational autonomy supported by independent analysis.\n - The Bank of Spain has been successful on these fronts; IMF looks forward to continuity under Mr. Escrivá’s tenure.\n- BRICS and groupings:\n - IMF welcomes improved and expanding international cooperation and deepening trade and investment ties among groups of countries, provided they reduce fragmentation and trade and investment costs among members.\n - Decision to join such initiatives is a sovereign choice of each member country." }, { "heading": "Pakistan program implementation concerns and social impact", "content": "- IMF stresses:\n - Consistent implementation of the new EFF is critical to stabilize the economy and pave the way for stronger, sustainable growth and job creation.\n - The 2023 Stand-by Arrangement experience demonstrated authorities’ commitment and ownership in implementing sound policies.\n - Program aims ultimately to benefit the Pakistani people by creating jobs and opportunities.\n\nTranscript of IMF Press Briefing, IMF Communications Department, September 12, 2024.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- PRESS CENTER\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2024/09/12/tr091224-transcript-of-imf-press-briefing" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2024/09/12/tr091224-transcript-of-imf-press-briefing/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2024/09/12/tr091224-transcript-of-imf-press-briefing/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2024/09/12/tr091224-transcript-of-imf-press-briefing/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: September 12, 2024", "Briefing embargoed until 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time in the United States.", "Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva:", "First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath:", "Deputy Managing Director Bo Li:", "Deputy Managing Director Kenji Okamura:", "ECB President Christine Lagarde:", "Key observations:", "Forecasts and timing:", "Process note:", "Staff-Level Agreement:", "Domestic revenue mobilization:", "G7 $50 billion pledge and ERA:", "Staff-Level Agreement and Board scheduling:", "Context:", "Legal/obligation basis:", "Rationale for resumption:", "Mission format and timing:", "Note on Executive Director nomination:", "Regional pressures:", "Kenya:", "Broader IMF approach:", "Program status:", "Specific issues raised:", "Reported figures noted in questions (no IMF confirmation provided):", "Sri Lanka:", "Bangladesh:", "Process and status:", "Program status:", "Nigeria:", "China-Africa Forum:", "Central bank independence (Spain/Bank of Spain):", "BRICS and groupings:", "IMF stresses:", "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)", "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)" ], "alternates": { "markdown": "/en/news/articles/2024/09/12/tr091224-transcript-of-imf-press-briefing/index.md", "json": "/en/news/articles/2024/09/12/tr091224-transcript-of-imf-press-briefing/index.json", "bundleManifest": "/en/news/articles/2024/09/12/tr091224-transcript-of-imf-press-briefing/bundle-manifest.json" }, "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-26T03:16:39.870Z" }