{ "title": "Transcript of IMF Press Briefing", "publication": "IMF News, October 3, 2024", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2024/10/03/tr100324-transcript-of-imf-press-briefing", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2024/10/03/tr100324-transcript-of-imf-press-briefing", "overlayPath": "/en/news/articles/2024/10/03/tr100324-transcript-of-imf-press-briefing/index.md", "summary": "MS. KOZACK: Good morning, everyone. It is great to see you all here in person and online. Welcome to this IMF Press Briefing. I am Julie Kozack, Director of the Communications Department. As usual, this briefing is embargoed until 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time in the United States.", "publishDate": "2024-10-03", "sections": [ { "heading": "Announcements and schedule", "content": "- Briefing embargoed until 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time in the United States.\n- Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva:\n - One-day visit to Qatar today for the annual Gulf Cooperation Council Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting; meetings with country authorities and university students.\n - October 7th: Hamburg Sustainability Conference, Hamburg, Germany.\n - October 8th: Annual Meeting with Heads of International Organizations in Berlin, organized by Chancellor Olaf Scholz.\n- Deputy Managing Director Kenji Okamura:\n - In Mongolia from October 3rd to 4th; then participating in the ASEAN Summit in Vientiane, Lao PDR on October 9th and 10th.\n- Annual Meeting timing and materials:\n - Analytical chapters of World Economic Outlook, Global Financial Stability Report, and Fiscal Monitor released during the week of October 14th.\n - Annual Meetings: Monday, October 21st to Saturday, October 26th.\n - Journalists advised to register before October 7h via IMF Connect (media FAQs available)." }, { "heading": "Russia", "content": "- Article IV Consultations with Russia have been postponed \"while we are gathering all of the necessary data and analysis to ensure that a rigorous consultation and analysis can take place.\"\n- No further updates on timing of mission.\n- Executive Director nomination process for Russia (Ksenia Yudaeva referenced): nominations are made by member countries; process is underway and IMF will not comment further at this stage." }, { "heading": "Sri Lanka", "content": "- Background: On June 12th, 2024, IMF Executive Board completed the 2024 Article IV Consultation and the Second Review under the EFF, providing immediate access to about $336 million.\n- Program assessment:\n - Program performance described as strong: reviving economic growth, lowering inflation, boosting reserves, improving revenue mobilization.\n - Important vulnerabilities and uncertainties remain; sustaining reform momentum is critical.\n- Engagements:\n - High-level team led by Director of the Asia Pacific Department Krishna Srinivasan visiting Colombo to meet President Dissanayake and new economic team; discussing latest developments and reform objectives.\n - Dates for the Third Review under the EFF to be announced in due course; delegation will communicate when visit concludes.\n- Debt restructuring:\n - On September 18th, Sri Lanka and international bondholder representatives reached an agreement in principle subject to confirmation of comparability of treatment by Sri Lanka's Official Creditor Committee." }, { "heading": "Japan", "content": "- Monetary policy:\n - Bank of Japan taking important steps toward normalization and its toolkit.\n - IMF advice: BOJ should continue to be data driven and to gradually raise the policy rate over its policy horizon if inflation forecasts support it.\n - Target: 2 percent inflation target referenced as anchor for inflation and expectations.\n- Fiscal policy:\n - Recommendation: focus on growth-friendly fiscal consolidation to rebuild buffers and ensure debt sustainability, underpinned by revenue and expenditure measures." }, { "heading": "Middle East, Gaza, West Bank, Lebanon, Israel, Libya", "content": "- Regional monitoring:\n - IMF closely monitoring intensification of conflict; notes high uncertainty and potential for significant economic ramifications.\n - Global channels of impact so far: shipping costs and commodity prices; commodity prices remain below the highs of the past year.\n- Country impacts (preliminary official estimates cited):\n - Gaza: preliminary official estimates indicate an 86 percent decline in GDP in the first half of 2024.\n - West Bank: preliminary official data indicate a 25 percent decline in GDP in the first half of 2024.\n - Lebanon: intensification exacerbates a fragile macroeconomic and social situation; physical infrastructure damaged.\n - Israel: GDP contracted by about 20 percent in Q4 2023 with only partial recovery in the first half of 2024.\n- Forecasts and reporting:\n - Updated projections to be provided in October World Economic Outlook and Regional Economic Outlooks at the Annual Meeting.\n- Lebanon program status:\n - Limited progress on actions agreed in the 2022 Staff-Level Agreement.\n - IMF prepared to engage on a possible financing program when decisive policy measures can be taken; current support through capacity development.\n- Libya:\n - IMF welcomed agreement to end the standoff over Central Bank leadership reached last week with UNSMIL support, paving way for resumption of central bank operations and oil production/exports.\n - On July 1st, IMF’s Executive Board concluded the 2024 Article IV consultation with Libya.\n - 2023: real GDP estimated to have expanded by 10 percent (rebound from 2022 oil stoppages).\n - Medium-term challenge: diversify away from hydrocarbons and promote stronger, inclusive private sector growth." }, { "heading": "Staff movement and safety", "content": "- No immediate detailed update on IMF Staff relocations in the region; IMF will follow up with details." }, { "heading": "Egypt", "content": "- Executive Director nomination process: ongoing; IMF will not comment further.\n- Program status:\n - On July 29th, IMF Executive Board completed the Third Review of Egypt's EFF, allowing draw of $820 million.\n - Inflation elevated but trending down; flexible exchange rate remains cornerstone of program.\n - Policy priorities: continued fiscal consolidation, strengthened revenue mobilization, space to finance and expand social programs, accelerate reforms to strengthen private sector growth.\n- Next review:\n - Next review mission planned \"in the coming months\" consistent with published Staff Report schedule; plans unchanged." }, { "heading": "Mexico", "content": "- Article IV process underway:\n - Team scheduled to meet new authorities shortly; findings to be communicated later this month.\n - Updated outlook to be included in the World Economic Outlook." }, { "heading": "Caribbean: Grenada, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Guyana", "content": "- Grenada:\n - Initial estimates suggest physical damages alone exceed 16 percent of GDP (substantial infrastructure, housing, agriculture, fisheries damage).\n - Near-term growth expected to remain positive supported by limited impact on critical tourism/infrastructure and post-disaster reconstruction beginnings.\n- St. Vincent and the Grenadines:\n - Initial reports indicate substantial losses and damage in the order of 20 percent to 25 percent of GDP, mainly in the southern Grenadines.\n - Authorities drawing down buffers and receiving international assistance; growth impact in 2024 currently expected to be relatively moderate due to prompt reconstruction efforts.\n- Guyana:\n - No immediate update provided; IMF to follow up bilaterally.\n - Noted structural concern: rapid growth driven by oil and gas while non-oil economy has shown limited dynamism; IMF recommendations to be provided in regional briefings." }, { "heading": "United States: Fed policy, port strike, transparency", "content": "- Port strike:\n - Too early to assess impact; IMF monitoring developments and hopes for prompt resolution to minimize supply-chain spillovers.\n- Monetary policy:\n - Inflation declining; core PCE expected to end this year at around 2.5 percent and return to 2 percent by mid-2025.\n - Fed actions viewed as appropriate; IMF encourages data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach.\n - Reference to recent 50-basis point cut by the Federal Reserve last month (question context).\n- Transparency and institutional dialogue:\n - IMF noted U.S. Treasury inputs and will engage membership on issues raised about transparency in emergency loans as part of ongoing Fund policy reviews and broader Bretton Woods institution discussions." }, { "heading": "Argentina", "content": "- Program and implementation:\n - Since the Eight Review of the EFF concluded, authorities continued program implementation: sizable reduction in inflation and fiscal deficit; signs of nascent recovery in activity and real wages.\n - Technical discussions ongoing in the context of the current EFF; IMF Staff assessing compliance with end-September targets on fiscal and reserve sides.\n- Poverty and social impact:\n - Government data cited poverty rate near 53 percent; IMF recognizes delicate social situation and notes authorities have expanded well-targeted social assistance programs benefiting poor women and children.\n - Continued action to bring down inflation and encourage employment and investment expected to improve real wages and activity over time." }, { "heading": "Ecuador", "content": "- Program status:\n - May 2024: IMF Executive Board approved a new 48-month EFF program with access about $4 billion and an immediate disbursement of $1 billion.\n - First Review expected before the end of this year.\n- RSF eligibility:\n - Ecuador is eligible for the Resilience and Sustainability Trust; authorities evaluating potential RSF arrangement.\n- Climate and shock vulnerabilities:\n - Ecuador vulnerable to extreme climate events (droughts, landslides, floods, storms, El Nino, La Nina); climate coverage available in published Staff Report.\n- Growth forecasts:\n - IMF to update forecasts for Ecuador at the Annual Meetings in World Economic Outlook and Regional Economic Outlook." }, { "heading": "El Salvador", "content": "- Engagement:\n - IMF Staff in ongoing engagement with Salvadoran authorities to reach agreement on a new IMF-supported program for macro stabilization, adjustment, and growth-enhancing reforms.\n- Policy elements under discussion:\n - Addressing risks from bitcoin is a key element: IMF recommends narrowing the scope of the bitcoin law, strengthening regulatory framework and oversight of the bitcoin ecosystem, and limiting public sector exposure to bitcoin.\n - 2025 draft budget seen as a step to strengthen public finances; includes measures to contain wage bill and spending on goods and services, requiring strong implementation." }, { "heading": "Senegal", "content": "- Government audit:\n - IMF welcomes general audit of public finances and commitment to governance and fiscal transparency.\n - Authorities have shared audit findings with IMF Staff; team will evaluate macroeconomic impact and outline next steps in coming weeks." }, { "heading": "Ethiopia", "content": "- Program details:\n - IMF Board approved ECF arrangement on July 29th, 2024 supporting reforms to address macro imbalances and restore debt sustainability.\n - IMF financing about $3.4 billion; immediate disbursement about $1 billion after Board approval.\n - Program aims to fill external financing gap estimated at $10.7 billion through 2027-2028, with broadly equal burden sharing between IMF, development partners, and Common Framework debt treatment.\n- First Review:\n - Recent mission produced a Staff-Level Agreement on policies for the First Review; Executive Board consideration scheduled for October 18th." }, { "heading": "Kenya", "content": "- Staff engagement:\n - IMF Staff visited Kenya from September 11th through 16th on a fact-finding mission; details in Press Release.\n - Discussions ongoing on the way forward.\n- Governance diagnostics:\n - IMF has encouraged authorities to request a governance diagnostics; IMF has provided such diagnostics to other countries as diagnostic assistance to assess and strengthen governance and lay basis for reforms." }, { "heading": "Sierra Leone and Malawi", "content": "- Managing Director meetings:\n - MD met with President Bio of Sierra Leone: discussed IMF support and congratulated Sierra Leone on reaching a Staff-Level Agreement on a new 36-month ECF arrangement.\n - MD met with Malawi’s president: discussed macroeconomic policies and reforms envisaged under Malawi's ECF arrangement, strategies to boost growth, and progress on debt restructuring.\n - IMF reaffirmed commitment to support both countries’ stabilization efforts." }, { "heading": "Ukraine", "content": "- Fifth Review:\n - On September 10th, IMF Staff and Ukrainian authorities reached a Staff-Level Agreement on the Fifth Review; subject to Executive Board approval, access would be $1.1 billion.\n - Board consideration of the Fifth Review is expected before the Annual Meetings.\n- Financing needs:\n - At the time of the Fourth Review, Ukraine's financing gap for 2025 was projected at nearly $26 billion; staff updating projections in the context of the Fifth Review." }, { "heading": "Citizenship by Investment (CBI) programs and Jamaica appointment", "content": "- CBI litigation:\n - IMF will not comment on ongoing litigation (RICO case referenced).\n - For country-specific fallout (e.g., St. Kitts and Nevis), IMF suggested regional briefings at the Annual Meetings will cover related issues.\n- Jamaica:\n - Nigel Clarke appointed as one of IMF Deputy Managing Directors; IMF welcomes him given prior engagement with IMF Staff on Jamaica programs.\n\nTranscript of IMF Press Briefing — October 3, 2024. IMF Communications Department.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- PRESS CENTER\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2024/10/03/tr100324-transcript-of-imf-press-briefing" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2024/10/03/tr100324-transcript-of-imf-press-briefing/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2024/10/03/tr100324-transcript-of-imf-press-briefing/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2024/10/03/tr100324-transcript-of-imf-press-briefing/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: October 3, 2024", "Briefing embargoed until 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time in the United States.", "Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva:", "Deputy Managing Director Kenji Okamura:", "Annual Meeting timing and materials:", "Article IV Consultations with Russia have been postponed \"while we are gathering all of the necessary data and analysis to ensure that a rigorous consultation and analysis can take place.\"", "No further updates on timing of mission.", "Executive Director nomination process for Russia (Ksenia Yudaeva referenced): nominations are made by member countries; process is underway and IMF will not comment further at this stage.", "Background: On June 12th, 2024, IMF Executive Board completed the 2024 Article IV Consultation and the Second Review under the EFF, providing immediate access to about $336 million.", "Program assessment:", "Engagements:", "Debt restructuring:", "Monetary policy:", "Fiscal policy:", "Regional monitoring:", "Country impacts (preliminary official estimates cited):", "Forecasts and reporting:", "Lebanon program status:", "Libya:", "No immediate detailed update on IMF Staff relocations in the region; IMF will follow up with details.", "Executive Director nomination process: ongoing; IMF will not comment further.", "Program status:", "Next review:", "Article IV process underway:", "Grenada:", "St. Vincent and the Grenadines:", "Guyana:", "Port strike:", "Monetary policy:", "Transparency and institutional dialogue:", "Program and implementation:", "Poverty and social impact:", "Program status:", "RSF eligibility:", "Climate and shock vulnerabilities:", "Growth forecasts:", "Engagement:", "Policy elements under discussion:", "Government audit:", "Program details:", "First Review:", "Staff engagement:", "Governance diagnostics:", "Managing Director meetings:", "Fifth Review:", "Financing needs:", "CBI litigation:", "Jamaica:", "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)", "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)" ], "alternates": { "markdown": "/en/news/articles/2024/10/03/tr100324-transcript-of-imf-press-briefing/index.md", "json": "/en/news/articles/2024/10/03/tr100324-transcript-of-imf-press-briefing/index.json", "bundleManifest": "/en/news/articles/2024/10/03/tr100324-transcript-of-imf-press-briefing/bundle-manifest.json" }, "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-26T03:19:07.398Z" }