## Transcript of Global Policy Agenda October 2024 Press Briefing

_IMF News, October 24, 2024_

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## Bibliographic details
- Published: October 24, 2024

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### Global outlook and macroeconomic risks
- Global economy:
  - "We expect the global economy to grow by 3.2 percent year and slow to 3.1 annual growth in 5 years."
  - "This is the lowest medium‑term outlook in decades."
- Inflation and monetary policy:
  - "Inflation continues to decline" and "Major central banks, including in the U.S., have rightly embarked on an easing path."
  - Policy trade‑off: "The trick now is to finish the job on inflation without unnecessarily damaging the job market."
- Trade and fragmentation:
  - "Trade is no more a powerful engine of growth. We live in a more fragmented global economy."
  - Concern over new groupings and payment systems: details needed to assess potential fragmentation impacts.
- Public debt and growth dynamics:
  - "Public debt is on track to surpass $100 trillion this year, an all‑time high, an equivalent of 93 percent of global GDP."
  - "By 2030, we expect that figure to approach 100 percent of GDP."
  - Bottom line: risk of getting "stuck on a low‑growth, high‑debt path" with consequences for incomes, jobs, and government revenues.

### IMF priorities and policy prescriptions
- Two headline priorities:
  - "Secure the soft landing."
  - "Break out of the low‑growth, high‑debt path."
- Key policy recommendations:
  - Ensure inflation returns to target everywhere.
  - "Act on debt and deficits" — rebuild fiscal buffers; "in most countries, that can be done gradually, but it needs to start now."
  - "Carry out pro‑growth reforms from cutting red tape to improving governance."
    - Analysis cited: reforms "can boost output by up to 8 percent over 4 years in developing countries."
- Global cooperation:
  - Continue cooperation on "climate, technology, debt, trade" to seize opportunities and mitigate risks.

### IMF lending, financial reforms, and tool innovations
- Lending and facilities:
  - "97 countries, highest in our history, have benefited from our lending since the pandemic, the majority through multiyear programs."
  - "During the same period, our concessional loans have tripled."
  - "Interest in the Resilience and Sustainability Facility continues to grow. We have 20 countries now using the facility to enhance their climate resilience, almost double the number when we met a year ago."
- Balance sheet and cost of borrowing:
  - "In April, for the first time, we reached our precautionary balances target of about $30 billion."
  - Membership decisions reducing borrowing costs:
    - "The cost of borrowing from our general resources will go down $1.2 billion annually."
    - "This is a 36 percent reduction in surcharges and in the margin of charges."
- Support to low‑income countries:
  - Comprehensive reform and financing package "generating about $8 billion in additional subsidy resources for PRGT over the next 5 years, more than doubling the long‑term, self‑sustained lending envelope to $3.6 billion a year."

### Regional impacts and country‑specific notes
- Middle East and MENA:
  - Conflicts producing severe human and economic costs; sharp contractions in Gaza, West Bank, Lebanon.
  - MENA growth revisions: "MENA as a whole is seeing growth projections revised significantly downward—0.6 percent downward revision from April to now. Now we project only 2.1 percent growth."
  - Egypt:
    - "Egypt is losing 70 percent of the revenues it used to collect from the Suez Canal because of the impact of the conflict..."
    - IMF engagement: had a "$3 billion program; because of all these increased pressures on Egypt, we have augmented significantly the program. We increased it by $5 billion."
    - IMF stance: supportive but stresses reforms "sooner rather than later" to reduce costs borne by people.
- Latin America and the Caribbean:
  - Heterogeneous performance:
    - Caribbean: growth "2023, 7.5; 2024, 11.9."
    - Latin America and the Caribbean as a whole: "2023, 2.6 percent; 2024, 2.6 percent."
  - Recommendation: lift growth trajectory via pro‑growth reforms, governance improvements, and public engagement.
- China:
  - IMF projections: "growth to grow by 4.8 percent in 2024, 4.5 percent in 2025."
  - Policy direction: shift from export‑led growth toward boosting domestic consumption, resolve property‑sector distress, and advance social security and pension reforms to reduce excessive precautionary saving.
  - Risk: "If China does not move, growth can slow down to way below 4 percent."
- ASEAN / Thailand:
  - ASEAN is a "bright spot" and "outperforming the world," supported by strong institutions, macroeconomic foundations, and export orientation.
  - Importance of structural reforms, regional cooperation, and climate adaptation to sustain outperformance.
- Ukraine:
  - IMF assessment: fifth review of the EFF arrangement completed with benchmarks met; program reflects strong ownership.
  - International support scale: "we look at something in the order of $150 billion support over the 4 years of our program."
  - Domestic revenue mobilization: IMF expects decisive action using technology and transparency to strengthen tax collection and accountability.

### Institutional role and engagements
- IMF core functions highlighted:
  - Bilateral and multilateral surveillance as a "transmission line of good practices."
  - Financial support as buffer for members in need.
  - Innovation and knowledge sharing (example: Resilience and Sustainability Trust).
- Cooperation and predictability in sovereign debt:
  - Progress under the G20 Common Framework and the Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable to make restructurings more predictable and efficient.
  - Joint World Bank–IMF three‑pillar response for liquidity pressures: reforms to boost growth and domestic resource mobilization, adequate financing including IFIs, and crowding in private finance.

_Transcript of Global Policy Agenda October 2024 Press Briefing, October 24, 2024._

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## References

- [https://www.imf.org/en/about/senior-officials/bios/kristalina-georgieva](https://www.imf.org/en/about/senior-officials/bios/kristalina-georgieva)
- [https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Policy-Papers/Issues/2024/10/23/The-Managing-Director-s-Global-Policy-Agenda-Annual-Meeting-2024-Secure-A-Soft-Landing-And-556656](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Policy-Papers/Issues/2024/10/23/The-Managing-Director-s-Global-Policy-Agenda-Annual-Meeting-2024-Secure-A-Soft-Landing-And-556656)
- [Arab Republic of Egypt and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/EGY/index.htm)
- [Jamaica and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/JAM/index.htm)
- [Thailand and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/THA/index.htm)
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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2024/10/24/tr102424-transcript-of-gpa_