{
  "title": "How To Do Better",
  "publication": "IMF News, October 25, 2024",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2024/10/25/sp102524-annual-meetings-plenary",
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  "summary": "Annual Meetings Chairman, Ahmed Munawar, Chairperson and Governor, Maldives Monetary Authority, World Bank Group President Ajay Banga, and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund Kristalina Georgieva speak at the October 25th plenary session of the Annual Meetings in Washington D.C.",
  "publishDate": "2024-10-25",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Opening and context",
      "content": "- Speech by IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva at the 2024 Annual Meetings Plenary, October 25, 2024.\n- Delivered alongside Annual Meetings Chairman Ahmed Munawar and World Bank Group President Ajay Banga.\n- As prepared for delivery; remarks highlight IMF staff work, partnership with World Bank, and the Fund’s role in a fragile global outlook."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Global outlook: inflation, growth, and trade",
      "content": "- Inflation trajectory:\n  - From 5.7 percent in the fourth quarter of last year to 5.3 percent in the current quarter, and further to 3.5 percent in Q4 2025 [FIGURE 1].\n  - Faster decline expected in advanced economies.\n- Growth projections and trend:\n  - World GDP projected to grow at an anemic average rate of 3.2 percent per year over the next five years.\n  - Forecasts have been revised lower over the years [FIGURE 2].\n- Trade and integration:\n  - Global economic integration is retreating, with rising industrial policy measures, trade barriers, and protectionism [FIGURE 4]."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Debt dynamics and spending pressures",
      "content": "- Debt outlook:\n  - Global public debt forecast to keep rising, with a risk that it could exceed the baseline projection by as much as 20 percent of world GDP in a severe but plausible negative scenario [FIGURE 3].\n  - \"A hundred trillion dollars in government debt worldwide.\"\n  - Higher interest payments are consuming a growing slice of fiscal revenues, particularly in low-income and emerging market countries.\n- Spending pressures by 2030 (IMF research):\n  - Advanced economies: adding some 7 percent of GDP to annual expenditure.\n  - Emerging markets: adding some 9 percent of GDP to annual expenditure.\n  - Low-income developing countries: adding some 14 percent of GDP to annual expenditure.\n- Reserve concentration:\n  - Five countries own more than half of the world’s total reserves, leaving many countries relatively unprotected [FIGURE 6]."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy recommendations and the fiscal “trilemma”",
      "content": "- Core policy message:\n  - First, shift toward rebuilding fiscal buffers.\n  - Second, invest in growth-enhancing reforms.\n  - Third, work together to tackle global challenges.\n- Fiscal consolidation guidance:\n  - With monetary policy easing, fiscal consolidation should start now.\n  - Credibility requires persuasive communication with the public.\n  - Multi-year fiscal plans should lay out consolidation paths tailored to country-specific situations.\n- The fiscal “trilemma”:\n  - Large spending needs, political redlines on taxation, and the need to rebuild buffers.\n- Domestic revenue mobilization:\n  - Critical for many countries to reconcile the trilemma.\n  - More than 20 countries have been able to boost their tax revenues by over 5 percent of GDP in the past three decades.\n- Protection of priorities:\n  - Growth-enhancing investments—especially in climate and technology—must be protected.\n  - Consolidation should not come at the expense of social protection and jobs.\n- Growth-enhancing reforms (areas and measures):\n  - Labor-market measures: skills enhancement and job matching.\n  - Product-market: cut red tape and mobilize savings.\n  - Innovation and productivity: foster venture capital and capital market integration in advanced economies; improve governance and institutions elsewhere.\n  - Reforms are best developed through two-way dialogue with the public and measures to mitigate impacts on those who lose out."
    },
    {
      "heading": "IMF role: surveillance, capacity development, and lending",
      "content": "- Surveillance and advisory roles:\n  - Bilateral surveillance provides diagnostics and advice, supporting institutional development, capital flow management, and interest rate policy guidance.\n  - Multilateral surveillance synthesizes cross-cutting lessons in flagship reports: the World Economic Outlook, the Global Financial Stability Report, and the Fiscal Monitor.\n- Capacity development:\n  - Thousands of technical assistance missions in the last five years, transferring knowledge and building goodwill.\n- Lending and safety net:\n  - The IMF is the first responder in times of trouble, especially for the poorest and most vulnerable.\n  - Recent program successes include Barbados, Benin, Cabo Verde, Costa Rica, Moldova, Morocco, Suriname, and Sri Lanka.\n  - Since the pandemic:\n    - Stock of concessional credit outstanding from the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust tripled to $28 billion.\n    - In less than three years since its launch, 20 countries have received long-term loans from the Resilience and Sustainability Trust.\n  - The 50 percent quota increase agreed last year in Marrakesh solidifies lending capacity [FIGURE 5].\n  - Fund actions strengthen lending role and precautionary credit facilities to bolster the global financial safety net.\n- Recent Executive Board measures (on the eve of the Annual Meetings):\n  - Measures will: first, safeguard the Fund’s financial strength; second, reduce charges and surcharges on regular lending by an average of 36 percent; and, third, deliver a comprehensive reform and financing package that more than doubles concessional lending capacity and places support to low-income countries on a firm footing for years to come [FIGURE 7].\n  - The package secured unanimous support—no member objected."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Debt resolution and cooperation",
      "content": "- Debt treatment progress:\n  - The Common Framework delivered milestone achievements for Ghana and Ethiopia, though predictability and timelines need improvement.\n  - Enhanced cooperation at the Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable has built consensus on technical issues.\n- Emphasis on cooperation:\n  - Despite high-temperature geopolitics, actionable cooperation is achievable and in members’ enlightened self-interest.\n  - Aggregating resources and building cooperative frameworks benefits all countries by reducing instability."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Representation, governance, and inclusivity",
      "content": "- Membership and representation:\n  - Welcomed the Principality of Liechtenstein as the newest, 191st member.\n  - Work ongoing with the Board and membership to develop, by June, possible approaches to better reflect members’ weight in the world economy, including through a new quota formula.\n  - On November 1 the Board will welcome a third Director for Sub-Saharan Africa to ensure more voice for the region.\n- Institutional strengths:\n  - The Fund relies on its staff and institutional capacity to deliver tailored value to members."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Closing anecdote and outlook",
      "content": "- 80th anniversary of Bretton Woods:\n  - Leaders visited the birthplace for reflection, drawing inspiration from founders who shaped a new world during dark times.\n  - A double rainbow during the visit was described as an omen and a reminder that the founders’ legacy should be seen through difficult periods.\n- Final note:\n  - Optimism that cooperation, reform, and institutional strength can help the world “do better.”\n\nSpeech by Kristalina Georgieva, IMF Managing Director — \"How To Do Better\", 25 October 2024.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Fiscal Monitor: Fiscal Policy in the Great Election Year (April 2024)\n  - Fiscal Monitor: Fiscal Policy in the Great Election Year (April 2024) (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Fiscal Monitor: Fiscal Policy in the Great Election Year (April 2024) (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- CHAPTER 3 UNDERSTANDING THE SOCIAL ACCEPTABILITY OF STRUCTURAL REFORMS\n  - CHAPTER 3 UNDERSTANDING THE SOCIAL ACCEPTABILITY OF STRUCTURAL REFORMS (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - CHAPTER 3 UNDERSTANDING THE SOCIAL ACCEPTABILITY OF STRUCTURAL REFORMS (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- https://www.imf.org/en/about/senior-officials/bios/kristalina-georgieva\n- 2024 Annual Meetings - Address by the Chair of the Boards of Governors\n- PRESS CENTER\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2024/10/25/sp102524-annual-meetings-plenary"
    }
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    "Published: October 25, 2024",
    "Speech by IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva at the 2024 Annual Meetings Plenary, October 25, 2024.",
    "Delivered alongside Annual Meetings Chairman Ahmed Munawar and World Bank Group President Ajay Banga.",
    "As prepared for delivery; remarks highlight IMF staff work, partnership with World Bank, and the Fund’s role in a fragile global outlook.",
    "Inflation trajectory:",
    "Growth projections and trend:",
    "Trade and integration:",
    "Debt outlook:",
    "Spending pressures by 2030 (IMF research):",
    "Reserve concentration:",
    "Core policy message:",
    "Fiscal consolidation guidance:",
    "The fiscal “trilemma”:",
    "Domestic revenue mobilization:",
    "Protection of priorities:",
    "Growth-enhancing reforms (areas and measures):",
    "Surveillance and advisory roles:",
    "Capacity development:",
    "Lending and safety net:",
    "Recent Executive Board measures (on the eve of the Annual Meetings):",
    "Debt treatment progress:",
    "Emphasis on cooperation:",
    "Membership and representation:",
    "Institutional strengths:",
    "80th anniversary of Bretton Woods:",
    "Final note:",
    "**Fiscal Monitor: Fiscal Policy in the Great Election Year (April 2024)**",
    "**CHAPTER 3 UNDERSTANDING THE SOCIAL ACCEPTABILITY OF STRUCTURAL REFORMS**",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/about/senior-officials/bios/kristalina-georgieva](https://www.imf.org/en/about/senior-officials/bios/kristalina-georgieva)",
    "[2024 Annual Meetings - Address by the Chair of the Boards of Governors](https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/10/25/sp102524-annual-meetings-plenary-chairman)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
  ],
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