## IMF Executive Board Concludes 2024 Article IV Consultation with Haiti

_IMF News, December 10, 2024_

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## Bibliographic details
- Published: December 10, 2024

---

### Overview and Context
- The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation with Haiti.
- Haiti faces an unprecedented multidimensional crisis encompassing humanitarian, economic, social, and security problems.
- Since the last 2019 Article IV consultation, Haiti experienced: the pandemic; a devastating earthquake in 2021; cholera outbreaks; and economic spillovers of the war in Ukraine that led to a food crisis and acute hunger.
- Deterioration of security has magnified these problems, causing a surge in displaced people and a significant drop in potential growth.
- Haiti’s economy has a low tax base and a large informal sector that relies heavily on volatile remittance flows.

### Macroeconomic Outlook and Risks
- The macroeconomic outlook is challenging and subject to elevated uncertainty.
- The supply-side shock caused by the security crisis would continue to greatly affect growth and feed inflation unless the security outlook improves.
- Fiscal revenues are only slowly recovering; remittances will continue to finance consumption but reflect an exodus of human capital that could undermine sustainable recovery.
- Growth projection: barely positive in 2025 and stabilization at only 1½ percent over the medium term (pending further improvements in the security outlook).

### Executive Board Assessment — Key Messages
- Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal and acknowledged the severity of Haiti's multidimensional crisis and the uncertain outlook due to deteriorating security.
- Recognition of authorities’ achievements in implementing reforms to strengthen economic resilience and restore macroeconomic stability.
- Normalization of security is essential to improve economic prospects; international community support is critical for security normalization, reform efforts, and rebuilding critical infrastructure.
- Welcome for the authorities’ interest in a new Staff Monitored Program as a useful policy anchor.

### Policy Recommendations and Priorities (Directors’ Guidance)
- Revenue mobilization:
  - Further advance the authorities’ revenue mobilization agenda to address development needs, notably through implementation of the new tax code to broaden the tax base.
- Public spending and audit:
  - Step up efforts to enhance quality, efficiency, and transparency of public spending.
  - Continue strong scrutiny and prompt audit of resources provided through the Fund’s Food Shock Window.
- Debt and financing:
  - Preserve debt sustainability; avoid non‑concessional lending.
- Social protection and inclusion:
  - Strengthen social safety nets to protect the most vulnerable and alleviate widespread poverty.
  - Continue endeavors to foster gender equality.
- Monetary and financial policies:
  - Maintain monetary financing of the deficit at zero.
  - Continue efforts to promote price stability and enhance the monetary policy framework.
  - Conclude and publish the 2023 central bank audit.
  - Limit FX interventions to smoothing excessive exchange rate volatility.
  - Closely monitor rising banking sector vulnerabilities, particularly from non‑performing loans, and continue improvements to regulatory and supervisory frameworks.
  - Further strengthen the AML/CFT framework.
- Structural and governance reforms:
  - Strongly underscore progress in implementing structural and governance reform agenda to lift potential growth.
  - Publish the governance diagnostic assessment and accompanying action plan as soon as finalized.
  - Build resilience to natural disasters and foster financial inclusion.
- Data and capacity development:
  - Improve data adequacy for surveillance, prioritizing the quality and timeliness of monetary and reserve assets data.
  - Continue well‑prioritized engagement with the Fund, particularly through capacity development guided by the Strategy for Fragile and Conflict Affected States.

### Key Economic and Financial Indicators, FY2021–27
(Fiscal year ending September 30; "Proj." denotes projections)

National Income and Prices (Change over previous year; unless otherwise indicated)
- GDP at constant prices:
  - FY2021: -1.8
  - FY2022: -1.7
  - FY2023: -1.9
  - FY2024: -4
  - FY2025: 1
  - FY2026: 1.5
  - FY2027: (not provided)
- GDP deflator:
  - FY2021: 19.3
  - FY2022: 29.8
  - FY2023: 31.5
  - FY2024: 29.1
  - FY2025: 23.2
  - FY2026: 17.6
  - FY2027: 10.4
- Consumer prices (period average):
  - FY2021: 15.9
  - FY2022: 27.6
  - FY2023: 44.1
  - FY2024: 25.9
  - FY2025: 19.8
  - FY2026: 15.4
  - FY2027: 10.6
- Consumer prices (end-of-period):
  - FY2021: 13.1
  - FY2022: 38.7
  - FY2023: 31.8
  - FY2024: 27.9
  - FY2025: 18.7
  - FY2026: 12.2
  - FY2027: 9.3

External Sector
- Exports (goods, valued in U.S. dollars, f.o.b.):
  - FY2021: 27.7
  - FY2022: 13.5
  - FY2023: -25.5
  - FY2024: -20
  - FY2025: 10
  - FY2026: 14.4
  - FY2027: 13.6
- Imports (goods, valued in U.S. dollars, f.o.b.):
  - FY2021: 7.8
  - FY2022: -1
  - FY2023: -9
  - FY2024: 11
  - FY2025: 6
  - FY2026: 5.5
- Remittances (valued in U.S. dollars):
  - FY2021: 22.5
  - FY2022: -7.3
  - FY2023: 0.1
  - FY2024: 5
- Real effective exchange rate (eop; + appreciation) 1/:
  - FY2021: -5
  - FY2022: 13.8
  - FY2023: 10.9
  - FY2024: 33
  - FY2025: …
Money and Credit (valued in gourdes)
- Credit to private sector:
  - FY2021: 15.2
  - FY2022: 17.4
  - FY2023: -6.2
  - FY2024: -5.3
  - FY2025: 21.1
  - FY2026: 14.7
  - FY2027: 12
- Base money:
  - FY2021: 21.5
  - FY2022: 23.1
  - FY2023: 3.1
  - FY2024: 11.5
- Broad money:
  - FY2021: 38.2
  - FY2022: 4.6
  - FY2023: 4.1
  - FY2024: 15.5

Central Government (In percent of GDP; unless otherwise indicated)
- Overall balance (including grants):
  - FY2021: -2.3
  - FY2022: 0.9
  - FY2023: 7.2
  - FY2024: -0.1
  - FY2025: -1.4
  - FY2026: -1.5
- Domestic revenue:
  - FY2021: 5.9
  - FY2022: 5.3
  - FY2023: 6.4
  - FY2024: 4.9
  - FY2025: 5.7
- Grants:
  - FY2021: 1.3
  - FY2022: 6.8
  - FY2023: 1.2
  - FY2024: 0.7
  - FY2025: 0.3
- Expenditures:
  - FY2021: 8.3
  - FY2022: 4.5
  - FY2023: 6.2
  - FY2024: 7.4
- Current expenditures:
  - FY2021: 3.4
  - FY2022: 4.2
  - FY2023: 4.3
- Capital expenditures:
  - FY2021: 1.9
  - FY2022: 1.6
  - FY2023: 1.1
  - FY2024: 2.1
  - FY2025: 3.2
- Overall balance of the nonfinancial public sector 2/:
  - FY2021: -2.2
  - FY2022: 0
  - FY2023: 6.6

Savings and Investment
- Gross investment:
  - FY2021: 18
  - FY2022: 13.9
  - FY2023: 6.1
  - FY2024: 10.7
  - FY2025: 14.2
  - Of which: public investment (not separately provided)
- Gross national savings:
  - FY2021: 18.5
  - FY2022: 9.8
  - FY2023: 13
- External current account balance (incl. official grants):
  - FY2021: 0.4
  - FY2022: -3.5
  - FY2023: -0.5
  - FY2024: -0.6
  - FY2025: -0.9
  - FY2026: -1.2
- Net fuel exports:
  - FY2021: -3.1
  - FY2022: -4.5
  - FY2023: -3.6
  - FY2024: -2.4

Public Debt
- External public debt (medium and long-term, eop):
  - FY2021: 12.9
  - FY2022: 12.3
  - FY2023: 1.4
  - FY2024: 2.7
- Total public sector debt (end-of-period):
  - FY2021: 28.9
  - FY2022: 29.5
  - FY2023: 28.5
  - FY2024: 11.4
- External public debt service 3/:
  - FY2021: 9.4
  - FY2022: 8.1
  - FY2023: 11.8
  - FY2024: 3.3
  - FY2025: 4.7

Memorandum Items (In millions of dollars, unless otherwise indicated)
- Net international reserves 4/:
  - FY2021: 456
  - FY2022: 119
  - FY2023: 391
  - FY2024: 960
  - FY2025: 1,159
  - FY2026: 1,341
  - FY2027: 1,501
- Gross international reserves:
  - FY2021: 2,534
  - FY2022: 2,067
  - FY2023: 2,346
  - FY2024: 2,496
  - FY2025: 2,621
  - FY2026: 2,771
  - FY2027: 2,921
- In months of imports of the following year:
  - FY2021: 5.6
- Nominal GDP (millions of gourdes):
  - FY2021: 1,699,208
  - FY2022: 2,168,223
  - FY2023: 2,798,324
  - FY2024: 3,468,166
  - FY2025: 4,315,508
  - FY2026: 5,151,163
  - FY2027: 5,772,370

Notes and Footnotes (as provided)
- 1/ The real effective exchange rate for FY2024 reflects August 2024 data.
- 2/ Includes transfers to the state-owned electricity company (EDH), and unsettled payment obligations.
- 3/ In percent of exports of goods and nonfactor services. Includes debt relief.
- 4/ Excludes banks’ FX deposits, Venezuela escrow account, IMF liabilities (except Food Shock Window), and swaps.

*Source: IMF press release, December 10, 2024.*

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## References

- [Haiti and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/HTI/index.htm)
- [IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)
- [Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)
- [PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)
- [http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm](http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm)
- [https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2024/12/10/pr-24461-haiti-imf-concludes-2024-article-iv-consultation_