{ "title": "Transcript of IMF Press Briefing, December 19, 2024", "publication": "IMF News, December 19, 2024", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2024/12/19/tr121924-com-regular-press-briefing", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2024/12/19/tr121924-com-regular-press-briefing", "overlayPath": "/en/news/articles/2024/12/19/tr121924-com-regular-press-briefing/index.md", "summary": "MS. KOZACK: Good morning, everyone. Great to see you all here in person, online, and online and welcome to this IMF Press Briefing. I'm Julie Kozack, Director of the Communications Department.", "publishDate": "2024-12-19", "sections": [ { "heading": "Opening and announcements", "content": "- Briefing chair: Ms. Julie Kozack, Director of the Communications Department, IMF.\n- Briefing embargo: embargoed until 11 a.m. Eastern Time in the U.S.\n- Announcement: The World Economic Outlook Update will be released in mid-January; exact date to be communicated by the Media and Social Outreach Team.\n- Contact: MEDIA@IMF.org; Press officer: Kwabena Akuamoah-Boateng, Phone: +1 202 623-7100; @IMFSpokesperson." }, { "heading": "Syria: engagement, assessment, and reconstruction", "content": "- Historical engagement:\n - The Fund has not had any meaningful engagement with Syria since 2009 (last Article IV consultation).\n- Current stance and monitoring:\n - The IMF is monitoring the situation closely; the situation on the ground is described as fluid.\n - It is \"too early to make an economic assessment.\"\n- Readiness to support:\n - The Fund \"stands ready to support the international community's efforts to assist Syria's reconstruction as needed and when conditions allow.\"\n- On program reengagement and arrears:\n - No specific conditions or timeline provided; the Fund will assess specific policies if/when they are put in place.\n- Reconstruction cost/projection question:\n - No economic cost projection provided; IMF states it is too early to make an assessment." }, { "heading": "United States monetary policy and global implications", "content": "- U.S. macroeconomic assessment:\n - The U.S. economy has been \"remarkably strong\" over the past few years.\n - Disinflation has been \"less costly than many feared.\"\n - Expectation: \"inflation on a path to the 2 percent target.\"\n - Specific projection: \"core PCE inflation to end this year at just under 3 percent.\"\n- Labor market:\n - Recent data shows the labor market continues to cool while inflation remains somewhat higher than expected but trending down.\n- IMF view on Fed actions:\n - The Fed's actions are described as \"appropriate.\"\n - Recommendation: The Fed \"will need to continue to calibrate the pace and the extent of the rate cuts with incoming economic data as uncertainty remains high.\"\n- Global spillovers:\n - \"Appropriate policy in the U.S., including policy by the Fed and a strong U.S. economy, given that the U.S. is the world's largest economy, is good for the rest of the world.\"\n- On the U.S. debt ceiling:\n - IMF position unchanged: important for the U.S. to have an arrangement that allows the federal government to be fully funded in a way agreeable to both parties." }, { "heading": "Bank of Japan monetary policy", "content": "- IMF view:\n - The Bank of Japan's actions are viewed as \"appropriate.\"\n - Recommendation: BoJ should \"continue a data dependent monetary policy\" while seeking policy normalization and ensuring inflation durably returns to target." }, { "heading": "Argentina: program status and political/legislative context", "content": "- Recent performance:\n - Authorities have implemented an economic stabilization program with \"sizable reduction in inflation, fiscal surpluses, and improved international reserve coverage.\"\n - Recovery in activity and real wages is \"firmly underway,\" with growth turning positive in the third quarter of this year.\n- Program negotiation status:\n - Authorities \"have formally expressed interest in moving to a new program, and negotiations are now underway.\"\n - Clarification: \"the current EFF is set to expire at the end of this year.\"\n - It is \"not uncommon\" to let an existing arrangement expire while considering a new Fund-supported program.\n- Fiscal position:\n - Recent data through end November suggests the authorities are \"now running a primary surplus of about 2 percent of GDP.\"\n- Process:\n - Details on the size and policies of any new program are \"part of the discussions that are underway\" and will be provided in due course." }, { "heading": "Russia and Ukraine: macro assessment and program details", "content": "- Russia economic assessment:\n - The Russian economy \"has been overheating through most of 2024.\"\n - Growth drivers: \"strong private consumption, supported by a very tight labor market, fast-growing wages, and buoyant credit,\" and \"strong corporate investment.\"\n - Fiscal spending: defense and security spending \"has increased strongly,\" overall spending \"has grown more modestly.\"\n - Policy stance: both fiscal and monetary policy have an important role; IMF will update Russian forecast in the January WEO.\n - Executive Board representation: Ms. Ksenia Yudaeva took her position as Executive Director on November 1st and is \"fully discharging her functions, including participating virtually in Executive Board discussions.\"\n - Visa/status questions referred to the U.S. State Department; IMF provided no visa status update.\n- Ukraine EFF program status and disbursements:\n - Program approved: March 2023 for about $15.6 billion.\n - Staff-Level Agreement: reached on the Sixth Review on November 18th, subject to Executive Board approval (Executive Board meeting scheduled for December 20th).\n - Disbursement related figures:\n - Upon approval of the Sixth Review, Ukraine would have access to about $1.1 billion in disbursements.\n - That would bring total disbursements under the program to about $9.8 billion.\n - Remaining disbursements in 2025 could be $2.7 billion, subject to performance and Board approval.\n - Program duration constraint: the current EFF cannot be extended further because it is \"at the maximum feasible duration for a Fund EFF program which is 48 months.\"\n - Program performance: \"remains strong,\" with authorities meeting all September quantitative performance criteria, structural benchmarks, and prior actions for the Sixth Review.\n - Future engagement: focus is on current program implementation; updates to be provided in due course." }, { "heading": "Egypt: Fourth Review discussions and currency movement", "content": "- Review status:\n - Discussions of the Fourth Review \"are ongoing virtually\" with a view to finalizing agreement on policies and reforms; more information will be provided once discussions conclude.\n- Exchange rate question:\n - IMF acknowledged questions about the decline in the Egyptian pound against the dollar; no detailed assessment provided in the briefing." }, { "heading": "Kenya: recent reviews, visits, and program support", "content": "- Recent IMF action:\n - On October 30th, the IMF Executive Board concluded the Seventh and Eighth Review of the ECF / EFF arrangement and the RSF, allowing a disbursement of about $606 million and bringing total disbursements to about $3.1 billion under the program.\n- IMF engagement:\n - Deputy Managing Director Nigel Clarke visited Nairobi December 6th through 10th to listen and learn about Kenya's economic challenges and how the IMF can support program policies.\n- Next steps:\n - No specific timeline provided for a team visit in the briefing; further details to follow as available." }, { "heading": "El Salvador: EFF arrangement and Bitcoin provisions", "content": "- Staff-Level Agreement:\n - IMF staff and El Salvadorian authorities reached a Staff-Level Agreement on a new arrangement under an Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for $1.4 billion, subject to Executive Board approval.\n- Program objectives:\n - Strengthen fiscal and external sustainability through \"ambitious and growth-friendly fiscal consolidation\" and actions to enhance reserve buffers.\n - Emphasis on governance, transparency, resilience, and improving insecurity conditions.\n- Bitcoin-related provisions:\n - Agreement seeks to \"diminish\" potential risks of the Bitcoin project in line with IMF policies.\n - Legal reforms will make acceptance of Bitcoin by the private sector \"voluntary.\"\n - IMF supportive of authorities' efforts to boost financial inclusion and increase growth.\n- General IMF position on crypto assets:\n - Crypto assets present both risks and opportunities.\n - Risks: \"financial stability, consumer protection, and financial integrity.\"\n - Opportunities: distributed ledger technology is being deployed by financial institutions for payments, security clearance, back office operations; investor appetite may reflect perceived diversification benefits.\n - Recommendation: countries should have policy frameworks to address crypto-related risks." }, { "heading": "Ghana: program progress and debt restructuring", "content": "- Executive Board action:\n - On December 2nd, the IMF Executive Board completed the Third Review, giving Ghana access to $360 million and bringing total disbursements under the program to $1.9 billion.\n- Program performance:\n - Performance \"generally satisfactory\"; \"remarkable progress on debt restructuring\"; \"economic growth is recovering rapidly\"; inflation has \"importantly declined\" albeit at a slower pace; fiscal and external positions continued to improve.\n- Program adjustments:\n - Programs are developed collaboratively with authorities and are subject to regular reviews to assess progress and align with objectives (restoring macroeconomic stability, ensuring debt sustainability, fostering inclusive growth)." }, { "heading": "Sri Lanka: Third Review and tax measure announcements", "content": "- Staff-Level Agreement:\n - IMF staff and Sri Lankan authorities reached a Staff-Level Agreement on the Third Review under the EFF on November 23rd.\n - Upon Executive Board approval, Sri Lanka will have access to $333 million.\n- Timing:\n - Executive Board meeting expected \"in the coming months\" following implementation of prior actions.\n- Recent tax announcements:\n - New government measures were announced less than 24 hours prior to the briefing; IMF did not provide a full assessment at the briefing and will include a full assessment in the staff report published after Executive Board approval." }, { "heading": "Mozambique: program status, shocks, and readiness to support", "content": "- Recent events:\n - Condolences extended for lives lost during post-election unrest and cyclone-related natural disaster.\n- Economic context:\n - Mozambique has shown resilience to a series of shocks but faces political transition, fragile social conditions, recurring natural disasters, debt vulnerabilities, and governance weaknesses.\n- IMF engagement and timeline:\n - On July 8th, the IMF Executive Board completed the Fourth Review under the EFF and the 2024 Article IV Consultation.\n - A virtual staff visit took place between November 11th and December 2nd.\n - Further discussions will take place once the political transition has been completed.\n - IMF \"stands ready to support Mozambique in maintaining economic stability and pursuing sustainable growth.\"" }, { "heading": "Miscellaneous: other country and process notes", "content": "- Russia consultations:\n - A previously expected consultation was postponed to gather additional information; no updated timeline provided for 2025 consultations.\n- Press logistics:\n - Transcript to be made available later on IMF.org after embargo lift.\n - IMF’s first day of business after the break: Thursday, January 2, 2025.\n\nTranscript of IMF Press Briefing, December 19, 2024 — IMF Communications Department\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- PRESS CENTER\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2024/12/19/tr121924-com-regular-press-briefing" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2024/12/19/tr121924-com-regular-press-briefing/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2024/12/19/tr121924-com-regular-press-briefing/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2024/12/19/tr121924-com-regular-press-briefing/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: December 19, 2024", "Briefing chair: Ms. Julie Kozack, Director of the Communications Department, IMF.", "Briefing embargo: embargoed until 11 a.m. Eastern Time in the U.S.", "Announcement: The World Economic Outlook Update will be released in mid-January; exact date to be communicated by the Media and Social Outreach Team.", "Contact: MEDIA@IMF.org; Press officer: Kwabena Akuamoah-Boateng, Phone: +1 202 623-7100; @IMFSpokesperson.", "Historical engagement:", "Current stance and monitoring:", "Readiness to support:", "On program reengagement and arrears:", "Reconstruction cost/projection question:", "U.S. macroeconomic assessment:", "Labor market:", "IMF view on Fed actions:", "Global spillovers:", "On the U.S. debt ceiling:", "IMF view:", "Recent performance:", "Program negotiation status:", "Fiscal position:", "Process:", "Russia economic assessment:", "Ukraine EFF program status and disbursements:", "Review status:", "Exchange rate question:", "Recent IMF action:", "IMF engagement:", "Next steps:", "Staff-Level Agreement:", "Program objectives:", "Bitcoin-related provisions:", "General IMF position on crypto assets:", "Executive Board action:", "Program performance:", "Program adjustments:", "Staff-Level Agreement:", "Timing:", "Recent tax announcements:", "Recent events:", "Economic context:", "IMF engagement and timeline:", "Russia consultations:", "Press logistics:", "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)", "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)" ], "alternates": { "markdown": "/en/news/articles/2024/12/19/tr121924-com-regular-press-briefing/index.md", "json": "/en/news/articles/2024/12/19/tr121924-com-regular-press-briefing/index.json", "bundleManifest": "/en/news/articles/2024/12/19/tr121924-com-regular-press-briefing/bundle-manifest.json" }, "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-26T03:32:18.203Z" }