## Transcript of IMF Press Briefing, December 19, 2024

_IMF News, December 19, 2024_

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## Bibliographic details
- Published: December 19, 2024

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### Opening and announcements
- Briefing chair: Ms. Julie Kozack, Director of the Communications Department, IMF.
- Briefing embargo: embargoed until 11 a.m. Eastern Time in the U.S.
- Announcement: The World Economic Outlook Update will be released in mid-January; exact date to be communicated by the Media and Social Outreach Team.
- Contact: MEDIA@IMF.org; Press officer: Kwabena Akuamoah-Boateng, Phone: +1 202 623-7100; @IMFSpokesperson.

### Syria: engagement, assessment, and reconstruction
- Historical engagement:
  - The Fund has not had any meaningful engagement with Syria since 2009 (last Article IV consultation).
- Current stance and monitoring:
  - The IMF is monitoring the situation closely; the situation on the ground is described as fluid.
  - It is "too early to make an economic assessment."
- Readiness to support:
  - The Fund "stands ready to support the international community's efforts to assist Syria's reconstruction as needed and when conditions allow."
- On program reengagement and arrears:
  - No specific conditions or timeline provided; the Fund will assess specific policies if/when they are put in place.
- Reconstruction cost/projection question:
  - No economic cost projection provided; IMF states it is too early to make an assessment.

### United States monetary policy and global implications
- U.S. macroeconomic assessment:
  - The U.S. economy has been "remarkably strong" over the past few years.
  - Disinflation has been "less costly than many feared."
  - Expectation: "inflation on a path to the 2 percent target."
  - Specific projection: "core PCE inflation to end this year at just under 3 percent."
- Labor market:
  - Recent data shows the labor market continues to cool while inflation remains somewhat higher than expected but trending down.
- IMF view on Fed actions:
  - The Fed's actions are described as "appropriate."
  - Recommendation: The Fed "will need to continue to calibrate the pace and the extent of the rate cuts with incoming economic data as uncertainty remains high."
- Global spillovers:
  - "Appropriate policy in the U.S., including policy by the Fed and a strong U.S. economy, given that the U.S. is the world's largest economy, is good for the rest of the world."
- On the U.S. debt ceiling:
  - IMF position unchanged: important for the U.S. to have an arrangement that allows the federal government to be fully funded in a way agreeable to both parties.

### Bank of Japan monetary policy
- IMF view:
  - The Bank of Japan's actions are viewed as "appropriate."
  - Recommendation: BoJ should "continue a data dependent monetary policy" while seeking policy normalization and ensuring inflation durably returns to target.

### Argentina: program status and political/legislative context
- Recent performance:
  - Authorities have implemented an economic stabilization program with "sizable reduction in inflation, fiscal surpluses, and improved international reserve coverage."
  - Recovery in activity and real wages is "firmly underway," with growth turning positive in the third quarter of this year.
- Program negotiation status:
  - Authorities "have formally expressed interest in moving to a new program, and negotiations are now underway."
  - Clarification: "the current EFF is set to expire at the end of this year."
  - It is "not uncommon" to let an existing arrangement expire while considering a new Fund-supported program.
- Fiscal position:
  - Recent data through end November suggests the authorities are "now running a primary surplus of about 2 percent of GDP."
- Process:
  - Details on the size and policies of any new program are "part of the discussions that are underway" and will be provided in due course.

### Russia and Ukraine: macro assessment and program details
- Russia economic assessment:
  - The Russian economy "has been overheating through most of 2024."
  - Growth drivers: "strong private consumption, supported by a very tight labor market, fast-growing wages, and buoyant credit," and "strong corporate investment."
  - Fiscal spending: defense and security spending "has increased strongly," overall spending "has grown more modestly."
  - Policy stance: both fiscal and monetary policy have an important role; IMF will update Russian forecast in the January WEO.
  - Executive Board representation: Ms. Ksenia Yudaeva took her position as Executive Director on November 1st and is "fully discharging her functions, including participating virtually in Executive Board discussions."
  - Visa/status questions referred to the U.S. State Department; IMF provided no visa status update.
- Ukraine EFF program status and disbursements:
  - Program approved: March 2023 for about $15.6 billion.
  - Staff-Level Agreement: reached on the Sixth Review on November 18th, subject to Executive Board approval (Executive Board meeting scheduled for December 20th).
  - Disbursement related figures:
    - Upon approval of the Sixth Review, Ukraine would have access to about $1.1 billion in disbursements.
    - That would bring total disbursements under the program to about $9.8 billion.
    - Remaining disbursements in 2025 could be $2.7 billion, subject to performance and Board approval.
  - Program duration constraint: the current EFF cannot be extended further because it is "at the maximum feasible duration for a Fund EFF program which is 48 months."
  - Program performance: "remains strong," with authorities meeting all September quantitative performance criteria, structural benchmarks, and prior actions for the Sixth Review.
  - Future engagement: focus is on current program implementation; updates to be provided in due course.

### Egypt: Fourth Review discussions and currency movement
- Review status:
  - Discussions of the Fourth Review "are ongoing virtually" with a view to finalizing agreement on policies and reforms; more information will be provided once discussions conclude.
- Exchange rate question:
  - IMF acknowledged questions about the decline in the Egyptian pound against the dollar; no detailed assessment provided in the briefing.

### Kenya: recent reviews, visits, and program support
- Recent IMF action:
  - On October 30th, the IMF Executive Board concluded the Seventh and Eighth Review of the ECF / EFF arrangement and the RSF, allowing a disbursement of about $606 million and bringing total disbursements to about $3.1 billion under the program.
- IMF engagement:
  - Deputy Managing Director Nigel Clarke visited Nairobi December 6th through 10th to listen and learn about Kenya's economic challenges and how the IMF can support program policies.
- Next steps:
  - No specific timeline provided for a team visit in the briefing; further details to follow as available.

### El Salvador: EFF arrangement and Bitcoin provisions
- Staff-Level Agreement:
  - IMF staff and El Salvadorian authorities reached a Staff-Level Agreement on a new arrangement under an Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for $1.4 billion, subject to Executive Board approval.
- Program objectives:
  - Strengthen fiscal and external sustainability through "ambitious and growth-friendly fiscal consolidation" and actions to enhance reserve buffers.
  - Emphasis on governance, transparency, resilience, and improving insecurity conditions.
- Bitcoin-related provisions:
  - Agreement seeks to "diminish" potential risks of the Bitcoin project in line with IMF policies.
  - Legal reforms will make acceptance of Bitcoin by the private sector "voluntary."
  - IMF supportive of authorities' efforts to boost financial inclusion and increase growth.
- General IMF position on crypto assets:
  - Crypto assets present both risks and opportunities.
  - Risks: "financial stability, consumer protection, and financial integrity."
  - Opportunities: distributed ledger technology is being deployed by financial institutions for payments, security clearance, back office operations; investor appetite may reflect perceived diversification benefits.
  - Recommendation: countries should have policy frameworks to address crypto-related risks.

### Ghana: program progress and debt restructuring
- Executive Board action:
  - On December 2nd, the IMF Executive Board completed the Third Review, giving Ghana access to $360 million and bringing total disbursements under the program to $1.9 billion.
- Program performance:
  - Performance "generally satisfactory"; "remarkable progress on debt restructuring"; "economic growth is recovering rapidly"; inflation has "importantly declined" albeit at a slower pace; fiscal and external positions continued to improve.
- Program adjustments:
  - Programs are developed collaboratively with authorities and are subject to regular reviews to assess progress and align with objectives (restoring macroeconomic stability, ensuring debt sustainability, fostering inclusive growth).

### Sri Lanka: Third Review and tax measure announcements
- Staff-Level Agreement:
  - IMF staff and Sri Lankan authorities reached a Staff-Level Agreement on the Third Review under the EFF on November 23rd.
  - Upon Executive Board approval, Sri Lanka will have access to $333 million.
- Timing:
  - Executive Board meeting expected "in the coming months" following implementation of prior actions.
- Recent tax announcements:
  - New government measures were announced less than 24 hours prior to the briefing; IMF did not provide a full assessment at the briefing and will include a full assessment in the staff report published after Executive Board approval.

### Mozambique: program status, shocks, and readiness to support
- Recent events:
  - Condolences extended for lives lost during post-election unrest and cyclone-related natural disaster.
- Economic context:
  - Mozambique has shown resilience to a series of shocks but faces political transition, fragile social conditions, recurring natural disasters, debt vulnerabilities, and governance weaknesses.
- IMF engagement and timeline:
  - On July 8th, the IMF Executive Board completed the Fourth Review under the EFF and the 2024 Article IV Consultation.
  - A virtual staff visit took place between November 11th and December 2nd.
  - Further discussions will take place once the political transition has been completed.
  - IMF "stands ready to support Mozambique in maintaining economic stability and pursuing sustainable growth."

### Miscellaneous: other country and process notes
- Russia consultations:
  - A previously expected consultation was postponed to gather additional information; no updated timeline provided for 2025 consultations.
- Press logistics:
  - Transcript to be made available later on IMF.org after embargo lift.
  - IMF’s first day of business after the break: Thursday, January 2, 2025.

*Transcript of IMF Press Briefing, December 19, 2024 — IMF Communications Department*

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## References

- [PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)
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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2024/12/19/tr121924-com-regular-press-briefing_