{
  "title": "IMF Executive Board Concludes 2024 Article IV Consultation with Cambodia",
  "publication": "IMF News, January 27, 2025",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/01/27/pr-25017-cambodia-imf-executive-board-concludes-2024-article-iv-consultation-with-cambodia",
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  "summary": "The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation with Cambodia.",
  "publishDate": "2025-01-27",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Overview and growth projections",
      "content": "- The Executive Board concluded the Article IV consultation with Cambodia.\n- Cambodia’s economy continued to recover, albeit at a modest pace.\n- Real GDP:\n  - 2024: 5.5 percent\n  - 2025 (projected): 5.8 percent\n- Inflation:\n  - 2024: 0.5 percent\n  - 2025 (projected): 2 percent\n- Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside from external factors and domestic vulnerabilities, including:\n  - policy changes by major trading partners,\n  - geoeconomic fragmentation,\n  - continued weakness in the construction and real estate sectors."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Drivers of the recovery and sectoral outlook",
      "content": "- Recovery characteristics:\n  - Growth driven mainly by external demand.\n  - Strong rebound in garment exports and high growth in agricultural exports.\n  - Tourism experienced a structural shift in its composition, causing a lagged recovery in tourism receipts.\n  - Growth in non-tradable sectors remains weak.\n- Credit and sector corrections:\n  - Credit-to-GDP ratio rose from 24 percent in 2010 to 135 percent in 2023 after sustained credit expansion.\n  - Credit growth has come to a near halt.\n  - Construction and real estate sectors undergoing a correction, with rising non-performing loans and emerging signs of private-sector debt overhang."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Fiscal stance, public finance, and external balances",
      "content": "- Fiscal projections and stance:\n  - Fiscal deficit:\n    - 2024: 3 percent\n    - 2025 (projected): 2.4 percent of GDP\n  - Medium-term fiscal framework envisages gradual fiscal consolidation.\n  - Public debt remains below 30 percent of GDP over the next decade.\n- Current account and external sector:\n  - Current account balance:\n    - 2024: deficit of 1.8 percent of GDP\n    - 2025 (projected): deficit of 2.5 percent of GDP\n  - Drivers: strong demand for imports outpacing recovery in exports and tourism; export growth expected to moderate."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Executive Board assessment and policy recommendations",
      "content": "- Overall assessment:\n  - Directors welcomed the continuing recovery driven by garment and agricultural exports and improving tourism activity.\n  - Recovery is uneven; risks are tilted to the downside.\n  - Importance stressed on policies to safeguard macrofinancial stability, ensure a durable and inclusive recovery, and achieve medium-term development goals.\n- Fiscal policy recommendations:\n  - Support for a neutral fiscal stance in the near term.\n  - Importance of gradual and high-quality consolidation over the medium term underpinned by sound fiscal frameworks to maintain debt sustainability and strengthen resilience.\n  - Strengthen the medium-term fiscal framework with more conservative and transparent fiscal rules.\n  - Further mobilize revenues through rationalizing tax exemptions and implementing tax policy reforms.\n  - Enhance spending efficiency and strengthen public investment management to rebuild fiscal buffers and safeguard priority social and capital spending.\n  - Foster development of the domestic government bond market as access to concessional foreign financing will be reduced when Cambodia graduates from Least Developed Country status.\n  - Sound management of fiscal risks from state-owned enterprises and public-private partnerships.\n- Monetary and financial sector recommendations:\n  - Support for a measured pace of monetary policy normalization while maintaining adequate financial system liquidity.\n  - Continue efforts to modernize the monetary policy framework to enhance policy transmission and support de-dollarization.\n  - Phase out forbearance measures and develop a comprehensive plan to safeguard financial stability given corrections in construction and real estate sectors, declining FDI inflows, and rising nonperforming loans.\n  - Strengthen risk-based supervision, improve macroprudential policy, enhance coordination among financial sector supervisory agencies, and intensify oversight of the real estate sector.\n- Structural and governance recommendations:\n  - Promote economic diversification and improve competitiveness through structural reforms.\n  - Enhance human capital, invest in infrastructure, strengthen the business environment, address climate vulnerabilities, and promote renewable energy to attract more diversified FDI.\n  - Strengthen governance and institutions, improve transparency, enhance the AML/CFT framework, and address data limitations through capacity development."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key statistics and selected indicators (highlights from Table 1)",
      "content": "- Per capita GDP (2022, US$): 1,546\n- Population (2022, million): 16.7\n- Life expectancy (2019, years): 75.5\n- Literacy rate (2019, percent): 87.7\n\n- Output and prices (annual percent change):\n  - GDP at constant prices:\n    - 2021: 3.1\n    - 2022: 5.1\n    - 2023: 5.0\n    - 2024: 5.5\n    - 2025 (proj.): 5.8\n    - 2026 (proj.): 6.2\n    - 2027 (proj.): 6.0\n  - Inflation (end-year):\n    - 2021: 3.7\n    - 2022: 2.9\n    - 2023: 2.7\n    - 2024: 1.5\n    - 2025 (proj.): 2.1\n    - 2026 (proj.): 3.2\n    - 2027 (proj.): 3.0\n  - Inflation (annual average):\n    - 2021: 5.3\n    - 2022: 0.4\n\n- Saving and investment (in percent of GDP):\n  - Gross national saving:\n    - 2021: 0.8\n    - 2022: 15.6\n    - 2023: 33.6\n    - 2024: 30.7\n    - 2025 (proj.): 30.0\n    - 2026 (proj.): 29.2\n    - 2027 (proj.): 29.3\n  - Government saving:\n    - 2021: 0.3\n    - 2022: 4.1\n    - 2023: 6.1\n    - 2024: 7.1\n    - 2025 (proj.): 8.1\n    - 2026 (proj.): 9.1\n    - 2027 (proj.): 10.1\n  - Private saving:\n    - 2021: 0.5\n    - 2022: 12.5\n    - 2023: 29.5\n    - 2024: 25.6\n    - 2025 (proj.): 23.9\n    - 2026 (proj.): 22.1\n    - 2027 (proj.): 21.1\n  - Gross fixed investment:\n    - 2021: 30.4\n    - 2022: 34.6\n    - 2023: 32.3\n    - 2024: 32.5\n  - Government investment:\n    - 2021: 6.6\n    - 2022: 5.6\n    - 2023: 5.2\n    - 2024: 4.5\n    - 2025 (proj.): 4.3\n    - 2026 (proj.): 4.2\n    - 2027 (proj.): 3.9\n    - 2028 (proj.): 3.8\n  - Private investment:\n    - 2021: 23.8\n    - 2022: 29.0\n    - 2023: 26.5\n    - 2024: 27.4\n    - 2025 (proj.): 28.0\n    - 2026 (proj.): 28.2\n    - 2027 (proj.): 28.4\n    - 2028 (proj.): 28.6\n    - 2029 (proj.): 28.7\n\n- Money and credit (annual percent change):\n  - Broad money:\n    - 2021: 16.4\n    - 2022: 8.2\n    - 2023: 8.5\n    - 2024: 7.9\n    - 2025 (proj.): 10.5\n    - 2026 (proj.): 11.3\n    - 2027 (proj.): 9.0\n  - Private sector credit:\n    - 2021: 23.6\n    - 2022: 18.5\n    - 2023: 3.5\n    - 2024: 4.0\n    - 2025 (proj.): 7.0\n    - 2026 (proj.): 10.0\n  - Velocity of money:\n    - 2021: 1.1\n    - 2022: 1.0\n\n- Public finance (in percent of GDP):\n  - Revenue:\n    - 2021: 15.8\n    - 2022: 18.1\n    - 2023: 15.9\n    - 2024: 14.9\n    - 2025 (proj.): 15.0\n    - 2026 (proj.): 15.1\n    - 2027 (proj.): 15.2\n  - Domestic revenue:\n    - 2021: 14.7\n    - 2022: 13.7\n    - 2023: 13.8\n    - 2024: 14.0\n    - 2025 (proj.): 14.1\n    - 2026 (proj.): 14.4\n  - Of which: Tax revenue:\n    - 2021: 13.2\n    - 2022: 13.0\n    - 2023: 12.1\n    - 2024: 12.2\n    - 2025 (proj.): 12.3\n    - 2026 (proj.): 12.7\n  - Grants:\n    - 2021: 1.7\n    - 2022: 1.2\n    - 2023: 0.9\n  - Expenditure:\n    - 2021: 21.0\n    - 2022: 18.4\n    - 2023: 18.7\n    - 2024: 17.9\n    - 2025 (proj.): 17.3\n    - 2026 (proj.): 17.1\n    - 2027 (proj.): 17.2\n  - Expense:\n    - 2021: 12.8\n    - 2022: 12.9\n    - 2023: 13.3\n    - 2024: 13.4\n  - Net lending (+)/borrowing(-):\n    - 2021: -5.2\n    - 2022: -0.3\n    - 2023: -2.8\n    - 2024: -3.0\n    - 2025 (proj.): -2.4\n    - 2026 (proj.): -2.2\n    - 2027 (proj.): -2.1\n    - 2028 (proj.): -2.0\n  - Net lending (+)/borrowing(-) excluding grants:\n    - 2021: -6.3\n    - 2022: -4.0\n    - 2023: -4.2\n    - 2024: -3.6\n    - 2025 (proj.): -3.3\n    - 2026 (proj.): -3.2\n\n- Total public debt (in percent of GDP):\n  - 2021: 25.9\n  - 2022: 25.0\n  - 2023: 25.7\n  - 2024: 26.8\n  - 2025 (proj.): 27.8\n  - 2026 (proj.): 27.7\n\n- Balance of payments (millions of dollars):\n  - Exports, f.o.b.:\n    - 2021: 19,527\n    - 2022: 23,175\n    - 2023: 23,569\n    - 2024: 26,745\n    - 2025 (proj.): 28,595\n    - 2026 (proj.): 30,942\n    - 2027 (proj.): 33,449\n    - 2028 (proj.): 36,307\n    - 2029 (proj.): 39,457\n    - Annual percent change (selected): 2021: 5.7; 2022: 13.5; 2023: 6.9; 2024: 8.7\n  - Imports, f.o.b.:\n    - 2021: -30,726\n    - 2022: -31,995\n    - 2023: -26,553\n    - 2024: -31,055\n    - 2025 (proj.): -33,244\n    - 2026 (proj.): -35,626\n    - 2027 (proj.): -38,605\n    - 2028 (proj.): -41,871\n    - 2029 (proj.): -45,434\n    - Annual percent change (selected): 2021: 46.4; 2022: -17.0; 2023: 17.0; 2024: 7.2; 2025 (proj.): 8.4\n  - Current account (including official transfers) (millions of dollars):\n    - 2021: -10,886\n    - 2022: -7,572\n    - 2023: 555\n    - 2024: -847\n    - 2025 (proj.): -1,269\n    - 2026 (proj.): -1,794\n    - 2027 (proj.): -1,993\n    - 2028 (proj.): -2,175\n    - 2029 (proj.): -2,283\n    - Current account (in percent of GDP): 2021: -29.6; 2022: -19.0; 2023: 1.3; 2024: -1.8; 2025 (proj.): -2.5; 2026 (proj.): -3.4\n  - Gross official reserves:\n    - 2021: 20,265\n    - 2022: 17,805\n    - 2023: 19,998\n    - 2024: 20,753\n    - 2025 (proj.): 23,064\n    - 2026 (proj.): 26,887\n    - 2027 (proj.): 30,951\n    - 2028 (proj.): 35,422\n    - 2029 (proj.): 40,351\n    - In months of prospective imports (selected): 2021: 7.3; 2022: 7.4; 2023: 8.3\n  - Total public debt (in millions of dollars):\n    - 2021: 9,505\n    - 2022: 9,971\n    - 2023: 11,187\n    - 2024: 12,473\n    - 2025 (proj.): 13,932\n    - 2026 (proj.): 15,218\n    - 2027 (proj.): 16,508\n    - 2028 (proj.): 17,912\n    - 2029 (proj.): 19,453\n  - Public external debt (in millions of dollars):\n    - 2021: 12,387\n    - 2022: 13,726\n    - 2023: 14,939\n    - 2024: 16,178\n    - 2025 (proj.): 17,548\n    - 2026 (proj.): 18,978\n  - Public debt service (millions of dollars):\n    - 2021: 397\n    - 2022: 427\n    - 2023: 449\n    - 2024: 418\n    - 2025 (proj.): 439\n    - 2026 (proj.): 458\n    - 2027 (proj.): 482\n    - 2028 (proj.): 506\n    - 2029 (proj.): 533\n    - In percent of exports of goods and services (selected): 2021: 2.0\n\n- Memorandum items:\n  - Nominal GDP (in billions of Riels):\n    - 2021: 150,793\n    - 2022: 164,059\n    - 2023: 177,719\n    - 2024: 190,603\n    - 2025 (proj.): 205,946\n    - 2026 (proj.): 225,291\n    - 2027 (proj.): 245,726\n    - 2028 (proj.): 267,845\n    - 2029 (proj.): 292,066\n  - Nominal GDP (in millions of U.S. dollars):\n    - 2021: 36,797\n    - 2022: 39,838\n    - 2023: 43,304\n    - 2024: 46,568\n    - 2025 (proj.): 50,180\n    - 2026 (proj.): 54,745\n    - 2027 (proj.): 59,548\n    - 2028 (proj.): 64,733\n    - 2029 (proj.): 70,395\n\nSource: IMF Executive Board press release: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2024 Article IV Consultation with Cambodia.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg\n- The Executive Board\n- Cambodia and the IMF\n- IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/01/27/pr-25017-cambodia-imf-executive-board-concludes-2024-article-iv-consultation-with-cambodia"
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    "Published: January 27, 2025",
    "The Executive Board concluded the Article IV consultation with Cambodia.",
    "Cambodia’s economy continued to recover, albeit at a modest pace.",
    "Real GDP:",
    "Inflation:",
    "Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside from external factors and domestic vulnerabilities, including:",
    "Recovery characteristics:",
    "Credit and sector corrections:",
    "Fiscal projections and stance:",
    "Current account and external sector:",
    "Overall assessment:",
    "Fiscal policy recommendations:",
    "Monetary and financial sector recommendations:",
    "Structural and governance recommendations:",
    "Per capita GDP (2022, US$): 1,546",
    "Population (2022, million): 16.7",
    "Life expectancy (2019, years): 75.5",
    "Literacy rate (2019, percent): 87.7",
    "Output and prices (annual percent change):",
    "Saving and investment (in percent of GDP):",
    "Money and credit (annual percent change):",
    "Public finance (in percent of GDP):",
    "Total public debt (in percent of GDP):",
    "Balance of payments (millions of dollars):",
    "Memorandum items:",
    "[https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg](https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg)",
    "[The Executive Board](https://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/memdir/eds.aspx)",
    "[Cambodia and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/KHM/index.htm)",
    "[IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)",
    "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
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