{
  "title": "IMF Executive Board Concludes the 2024 Article IV Consultation with Qatar",
  "publication": "IMF News, February 11, 2025",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/02/11/pr25034-qatar-imf-executive-board-concludes-the-2024-article-iv-consultation",
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  "summary": "Washington, DC – February 11, 2025: On January 27, 2025, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation with Qatar.",
  "publishDate": "2025-02-11",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Growth, inflation, and medium-term outlook",
      "content": "- Real GDP growth:\n  - Projected to improve gradually to 2 percent in 2024–25.\n  - Medium-term growth expected to accelerate to 4¾ percent on average, driven by significant LNG production expansion and initial gains from implementing the Third National Development Strategy (NDS3).\n- Drivers of near-term and medium-term growth:\n  - Public investment, spillovers from the ongoing LNG expansion project, and strong tourism.\n- Inflation:\n  - Headline inflation will likely ease to 1 percent in 2024 and converge to around 2 percent over the medium term."
    },
    {
      "heading": "External sector and public finances",
      "content": "- 2023 outcomes and 2024 developments:\n  - With lower hydrocarbon prices, the current account surplus narrowed to 17 percent of GDP in 2023.\n  - Fiscal surplus narrowed to 5½ percent of GDP in 2023.\n  - The twin surpluses moderated further in 2024.\n- Medium-term outlook:\n  - As LNG production expands massively, both the current and fiscal accounts will likely remain in surpluses, albeit declining as a share of GDP, as hydrocarbon prices are projected to fall."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Financial sector health and developments",
      "content": "- Banking sector indicators (Q3 2024):\n  - Capital adequacy ratio: close to 20 percent.\n  - Return on equity: 14½ percent.\n  - Sector-wide NPL ratio: slightly below 4 percent.\n  - Provisioning coverage ratio: above 80 percent.\n- Funding and liquidity:\n  - Following QCB measures to reduce banks’ net short-term foreign liabilities, non-resident deposits declined significantly.\n  - Banks have lengthened average maturity and diversified further sources of foreign funding."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Structural reforms and NDS3 implementation",
      "content": "- NDS3 objectives:\n  - Build a more diversified, knowledge-based and private sector-driven economy.\n- Reform progress and priorities:\n  - Strengthened reform momentum to attract and retain high-skilled expatriate workers, foster innovation, promote public-private partnerships, and improve business efficiency.\n  - Qatar is well positioned to leverage digitalization and AI for productivity gains.\n  - The nation’s climate agenda is advancing."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Risks to the outlook",
      "content": "- Downside risks:\n  - Global headwinds: a sharper-than-expected global growth slowdown; increased volatility in global financial conditions and commodity prices; further worsening geopolitical tensions.\n  - Regional conflict: limited impact so far but adds downside risk through lower tourism and capital inflows, and more volatile hydrocarbon prices.\n  - Domestic: potential further weaknesses in the real estate sector, though strong tourism and 2023 policy measures could mitigate this risk.\n  - Medium/long-term: significant expansion in global natural gas supply could put downward pressure on prices.\n- Upside risks:\n  - Sustained high hydrocarbon prices.\n  - Accelerated NDS3 reforms.\n- Policy execution risk:\n  - If ambitious NDS3 initiatives lead to resource misallocation, public finance and growth prospects would be affected."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Executive Board assessment and policy recommendations",
      "content": "- General assessment:\n  - Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal, welcomed Qatar’s continued resilience, and favorable medium-term outlook driven by LNG production increases and NDS3 reforms.\n  - Maintaining prudent macroeconomic policies and accelerating reform efforts would further solidify macroeconomic stability and resilience while boosting prosperity.\n- Fiscal policy recommendations:\n  - Commended authorities’ commitment to continued fiscal prudence.\n  - Recommended adopting a medium-term fiscal anchor to help ensure intergenerational equity.\n  - Reiterated the need to accelerate revenue diversification, particularly by introducing the value-added tax.\n  - Highlighted the importance of improving spending efficiency and composition, particularly by enhancing public investment management.\n  - Welcomed efforts to strengthen fiscal institutions and adopt a full-fledged medium-term fiscal framework with enhanced fiscal risk management.\n- Financial sector recommendations:\n  - Supported efforts to maintain financial stability and deepen domestic financial markets; encouraged consideration of a Financial Sector Assessment Program update.\n  - Welcomed newly introduced risk-based supervision; recommended formalizing the financial safety net and continuing to adjust macroprudential policies to mitigate potential macro-financial risks.\n  - Encouraged sustaining progress in fighting financial crimes.\n- Exchange rate and monetary policy:\n  - Directors agreed the exchange rate peg continues to serve Qatar well.\n  - Concurred that, as conditions allow, strengthening the operational framework would further enhance monetary policy transmission.\n- Structural and labor market recommendations:\n  - Supported strategy to build a more diversified, private sector-led, and knowledge-based economy.\n  - Recommended fostering innovation and business efficiency; enhancing human capital by attracting and retaining more high-skilled expatriate workers; improving Qatari nationals’ employment in the private sector; and further increasing female labor force participation.\n  - Agreed that aligning domestic energy prices with export prices would benefit public finances and support climate goals.\n  - Encouraged closing remaining data gaps with IMF capacity development assistance."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Selected macroeconomic indicators and key figures (2021–25)",
      "content": "- Quota: 735.1 million SDRs, November 2024\n- Per capita income: U.S.$69,541, 2023\n- Life expectancy at birth: 81.6 years, 2022\n- Population: 3.1 million, 2023\n- Real GDP (2018 prices), percent change:\n  - 2021: 1.6\n  - 2022: 4.2\n  - 2023: 1.2\n  - 2024: 1.7\n  - 2025: 2.4\n- Hydrocarbon (percent change): 2022: -0.3; 2023: 1.4; 2024: 3.0\n- Nonhydrocarbon (percent change):\n  - 2021: 2.8\n  - 2022: 5.7\n  - 2023: 1.1\n  - 2024: 1.9\n  - 2025: 2.1\n- CPI inflation (average):\n  - 2021: 2.3\n  - 2022: 5.0\n  - 2023: 1.0\n- Public finances (percent of GDP):\n  - Revenue: 2021: 29.6; 2022: 34.7; 2023: 32.8; 2024: 26.2; 2025: 28.7\n  - Expenditure: 2021: 29.4; 2022: 24.3; 2023: 27.3; 2024: 25.9\n  - Current: 2021: 18.3; 2022: 15.6; 2023: 17.5; 2024: 17.2\n  - Capital: 2021: 11.1; 2022: 8.8; 2023: 9.7; 2024: 8.7\n  - Central government fiscal balance: 2021: 0.2; 2022: 10.4; 2023: 5.6; 2024: 0.3; 2025: 2.5\n- Money and credit:\n  - Broad money: 2021: 17.4; 2022: 4.1\n  - Credit to private sector: 2021: 9.5; 2022: 7.4; 2023: 4.9; 2024: 5.5; 2025: 6.1\n- External sector (percent of GDP unless otherwise noted):\n  - Exports: 2021: 58.7; 2022: 68.6; 2023: 60.4; 2024: 60.1; 2025: 60.1\n  - Imports: 2021: 34.1; 2022: 31.6; 2023: 33.9; 2024: 33.4; 2025: 35.1\n  - Current account balance: 2021: 14.6; 2022: 26.8; 2023: 17.1; 2024: 16.6; 2025: 15.5\n  - Current account balance, in billions of U.S. dollars: 2021: 26.3; 2022: 63.1; 2023: 36.5; 2024: 37.0; 2025: 35.2\n  - External debt: 2021: 161.4; 2022: 115.5; 2023: 123.2; 2024: 118.1; 2025: 116.8\n  - Central Bank's reserves: 2021: 23.5; 2022: 20.1; 2023: 24.2; 2024: 24.5; 2025: 25.4\n  - Central Bank's reserves, in months of next year’s imports: 2021: 6.6; 2022: 7.7; 2023: 8.1; 2024: 8.0; 2025: 7.9\n- Exchange rate (per U.S. dollar): January 6, 2025: 3.6\n- Real effective exchange rate (percent change): 2021: -2.6; 2022: 6.5; 2023: -0.5; 2024: …\n\nSource: IMF Executive Board Concludes the 2024 Article IV Consultation with Qatar, February 11, 2025.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg\n- The Executive Board\n- Qatar and the IMF\n- IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/02/11/pr25034-qatar-imf-executive-board-concludes-the-2024-article-iv-consultation"
    }
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    "Published: February 11, 2025",
    "Real GDP growth:",
    "Drivers of near-term and medium-term growth:",
    "Inflation:",
    "2023 outcomes and 2024 developments:",
    "Medium-term outlook:",
    "Banking sector indicators (Q3 2024):",
    "Funding and liquidity:",
    "NDS3 objectives:",
    "Reform progress and priorities:",
    "Downside risks:",
    "Upside risks:",
    "Policy execution risk:",
    "General assessment:",
    "Fiscal policy recommendations:",
    "Financial sector recommendations:",
    "Exchange rate and monetary policy:",
    "Structural and labor market recommendations:",
    "Quota: 735.1 million SDRs, November 2024",
    "Per capita income: U.S.$69,541, 2023",
    "Life expectancy at birth: 81.6 years, 2022",
    "Population: 3.1 million, 2023",
    "Real GDP (2018 prices), percent change:",
    "Hydrocarbon (percent change): 2022: -0.3; 2023: 1.4; 2024: 3.0",
    "Nonhydrocarbon (percent change):",
    "CPI inflation (average):",
    "Public finances (percent of GDP):",
    "Money and credit:",
    "External sector (percent of GDP unless otherwise noted):",
    "Exchange rate (per U.S. dollar): January 6, 2025: 3.6",
    "Real effective exchange rate (percent change): 2021: -2.6; 2022: 6.5; 2023: -0.5; 2024: …",
    "[https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg](https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg)",
    "[The Executive Board](https://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/memdir/eds.aspx)",
    "[Qatar and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/QAT/index.htm)",
    "[IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)",
    "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm](http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm)",
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