{
  "title": "IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Australia",
  "publication": "IMF News, February 15, 2026",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/02/12/pr-26046-australia-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation",
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  "summary": "On February 9, 2026, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation with Australia.",
  "publishDate": "2026-02-15",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Overview",
      "content": "- On February 9, 2026, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation with Australia.\n- The Australian economy is managing a soft landing. Growth picked up to 2.1 percent year on year in 2025Q3 after a weak 2024, as private demand gradually recovered.\n- With the output gap narrowing, inflation declined steadily through 2025Q2, allowing monetary policy to be eased over the course of the year. Underlying inflation rose above 3 percent in 2025Q3.\n- Labor market conditions are easing gradually after a period of tightness; the unemployment rate is 4.3 percent.\n- House prices have rebounded as financial conditions eased, and new dwelling investment has begun to pick up."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Near-term Outlook and Projections",
      "content": "- Real GDP is forecast to have expanded by 1.9 percent in 2025 and to grow by 2.1 percent in 2026.\n- Elevated global uncertainty will continue to weigh on external demand and the current account is expected to remain in deficit into the medium term.\n- Inflation is projected to converge to the midpoint of the RBA’s 2 to 3 percent target range by the latter half of 2027.\n- Wage growth is anticipated to moderate further, partially attributable to weak productivity growth."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Risks to the Outlook",
      "content": "- Downside external risks: global trade tensions, financial instability, and volatile commodity prices could dampen demand and employment.\n- Domestic risks: persistent inflationary pressures from strong labor markets and constrained supply capacity; slower-than-expected domestic demand recovery could increase unemployment.\n- Medium-term challenges: climate events and shifting global energy demand.\n- Upside resilience: new trade agreements and greater regional integration could support resilience."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Executive Board Assessment and Policy Guidance",
      "content": "- Directors welcomed progress toward a soft landing and internal balance, noting uncertainties about residual excess demand and supply capacity amid weak productivity growth.\n- Near-term macroeconomic policies should remain agile and responsive to external shocks.\n- Monetary policy:\n  - Directors welcomed the Reserve Bank of Australia’s recent policy rate increase in response to the economic and inflation outlook.\n  - They supported the RBA’s data-dependent monetary policy adjustment in line with its dual mandate of price stability and full employment.\n  - They stressed the importance of continued vigilance given elevated uncertainty.\n  - They welcomed progress on the RBA Review recommendations, including efforts to improve policy communication and further strengthen central bank independence.\n- Fiscal policy:\n  - Directors supported planned medium-term fiscal consolidation to help rebuild fiscal buffers and enhance external rebalancing.\n  - They encouraged comprehensive tax and expenditure reforms while protecting and prioritizing infrastructure investments to enhance productivity and support growth.\n  - They recommended improved fiscal coordination across the federation and regular monitoring of subnational fiscal positions.\n- Financial stability and housing:\n  - Directors considered financial stability risks contained but stressed ongoing vigilance, oversight, system-wide stress-testing, and agile macroprudential adjustments.\n  - They highlighted the need for a holistic strategy to address housing supply constraints, emphasizing implementation of supply-boosting measures and tax reforms.\n- Structural reforms:\n  - Directors underscored bundling and sequencing structural reforms to foster productivity, business dynamism, and labor mobility.\n  - Recommended actions include streamlining regulations, leveraging technology adoption, advancing labor market reforms, and continuing economic and trade diversification.\n  - On the green transition, Directors cautioned that related industrial policy should be narrowly focused to address market failures and generate positive externalities."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key Economic Indicators (selected exact figures from Table 1)",
      "content": "- Real GDP (annual percent change):\n  - 2021: 5.4\n  - 2022: 4.2\n  - 2023: 2.1\n  - 2024: 1.0\n  - 2025: 1.9\n  - 2026: 2.2\n  - 2027: 2.3\n- Domestic demand (annual percent change):\n  - 2021: 6.1\n  - 2022: 5.3\n  - 2023: 2.9\n  - 2024: 2.0\n- Private consumption (annual percent change):\n  - 2021: 5.0\n  - 2022: 7.4\n  - 2023: 2.7\n  - 2024: 0.6\n  - 2025: 2.5\n  - 2026: 2.4\n- Investment (percent of GDP) 1/:\n  - 2021: 23.4\n  - 2022: 23.8\n  - 2023: 23.9\n  - 2024: 24.5\n  - 2025: 24.3\n  - 2026: 24.1\n  - 2027: 24.2\n- Private investment (percent of GDP):\n  - 2021: 18.1\n  - 2022: 17.8\n  - 2023: 18.4\n  - 2024: 18.6\n  - 2025: 18.7\n  - 2026: 18.8\n  - 2027: 18.9\n  - 2028: 19.0\n  - 2029: 19.1\n  - 2030: 19.2\n- Output gap (percent of potential): 0.1\n- Employment (annual percent change):\n  - 2021: 3.1\n  - 2022: 4.5\n  - 2023: 3.4\n- Unemployment (percent of labor force):\n  - 2021: 3.7\n  - 2022: 4.0\n  - 2023: 4.3\n  - 2024: 4.4\n- Wages (nominal percent change):\n  - 2021: 3.8\n  - 2022: 3.3\n- Terms of trade index (goods, avg) and % change:\n  - Index: 2021: 103; 2022: 113; 2023: 104; 2024: 97; 2025: 95; 2026: 96; 2027: 94; 2028: 93; 2029: 92; 2030: 91\n  - % change: 2021: 9.8; 2022: -7.3; 2023: -6.9; 2024: -1.3; 2025: -0.7; 2026: -0.6; 2027: -0.4\n- Consumer prices (avg):\n  - 2021: 6.6\n  - 2022: 5.6\n- GDP deflator (avg):\n  - 2021: 8.2\n  - 2022: 2.6\n- 10-year treasury bond yield (percent, avg):\n  - 2021: 1.6\n  - 2022: 3.6\n  - 2023: 3.9\n- Mortgage lending rate (percent, avg):\n  - 2021: 7.3\n  - 2022: 8.7\n  - 2023: 8.8\n  - 2024: 8.0\n  - 2025: 7.9\n  - 2026: 7.7\n  - 2027: 7.6\n- House prices (% change):\n  - 2021: 23.7\n  - 2022: -4.9\n  - 2023: 7.2\n- House price-to-income, national median value (ratio):\n  - 2021: 7.8\n- Estimated interest payments (percent of disposable income):\n  - 2021: 6.9\n  - 2022: 6.8\n  - 2023: 6.7\n- Household savings (percent of disposable income):\n  - 2021: 13.2\n  - 2022: 5.8\n  - 2023: 4.6\n  - 2024: 4.7\n- Household debt (percent of disposable income) 2/:\n  - 2021: 187\n  - 2022: 188\n  - 2023: 185\n  - 2024: 181\n  - 2025: 176\n  - 2026: 175\n  - 2027: 178\n  - 2028: 177\n- Business credit (percent of GDP):\n  - 2021: 48.4\n  - 2022: 48.5\n  - 2023: 48.9\n  - 2024: 47.7\n  - 2025: 48.0\n  - 2026: 48.2\n  - 2027: 48.8\n  - 2028: 49.0\n  - 2029: 49.4\n- General government (percent of GDP) — Revenue:\n  - 2021: 34.8\n  - 2022: 35.5\n  - 2023: 35.9\n  - 2024: 36.5\n  - 2025: 36.6\n  - 2026: 36.8\n  - 2027: 36.7\n  - 2028: 36.2\n  - 2029: 36.3\n  - 2030: 36.3\n- General government (percent of GDP) — Expenditure:\n  - 2021: 44.1\n  - 2022: 39.3\n  - 2023: 38.2\n  - 2024: 39.8\n  - 2025: 39.6\n  - 2026: 38.7\n  - 2027: 38.1\n  - 2028: 38.0\n  - 2029: 37.8\n  - 2030: 37.7\n- Net lending/borrowing (percent of GDP):\n  - 2021: -9.2\n  - 2022: -3.7\n  - 2023: -3.2\n  - 2024: -2.9\n  - 2025: -1.9\n  - 2026: -1.8\n  - 2027: -1.5\n  - 2028: -1.4\n- Gross debt (percent of GDP):\n  - 2021: 57.9\n  - 2022: 52.8\n  - 2023: 50.0\n  - 2024: 51.4\n  - 2025: 51.5\n  - 2026: 51.2\n  - 2027: 51.0\n  - 2028: 50.6\n  - 2029: 50.1\n- Net debt (percent of GDP):\n  - 2021: 33.3\n  - 2022: 30.4\n  - 2023: 31.6\n  - 2024: 32.9\n  - 2025: 32.8\n  - 2026: 32.5\n  - 2027: 32.4\n  - 2028: 32.2\n  - 2029: 31.7\n- Current account (percent of GDP):\n  - 2021: 0.3\n  - 2022: -2.2\n  - 2023: -2.3\n  - 2024: -2.4\n- Net international investment position (percent of GDP):\n  - 2021: -37.7\n  - 2022: -37.2\n  - 2023: -30.0\n  - 2024: -23.0\n  - 2025: -23.5\n  - 2026: -24.4\n  - 2027: -25.6\n  - 2028: -26.8\n  - 2029: -27.9\n  - 2030: -29.1\n  - 2031: -30.2\n- Gross official reserves (bn A$):\n  - 2021: 81\n  - 2022: 85\n  - 2023: 107\n- Nominal GDP (bn A$):\n  - 2021: 2,208\n  - 2022: 2,491\n  - 2023: 2,630\n  - 2024: 2,726\n  - 2025: 2,853\n  - 2026: 3,000\n  - 2027: 3,134\n  - 2028: 3,274\n  - 2029: 3,425\n  - 2030: 3,582\n  - 2031: 3,746\n- Nominal GDP percent change:\n  - 2021: 11.6\n  - 2022: 12.8\n  - 2023: 3.67\n- Real GDP per capita (% change): 0.9 (year listed)\n- Population (million):\n  - 2021: 25.8\n  - 2022: 26.3\n  - 2023: 27.0\n  - 2024: 27.4\n  - 2025: 27.7\n  - 2026: 28.1\n  - 2027: 28.4\n  - 2028: 28.8\n  - 2029: 29.1\n  - 2030: 29.5\n  - 2031: 29.8\n- Nominal effective exchange rate:\n  - 2021: 90.8\n  - 2022: 90.3\n  - 2023: 88.1\n  - 2024: 89.0\n- Real effective exchange rate:\n  - 2021: 90.5\n  - 2022: 91.1\n  - 2023: 90.4\n  - 2024: 82.0\n\nSource: IMF Executive Board press release concluding the 2025 Article IV consultation with Australia (Press Release No. 26/046, February 15, 2026).\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- Australia and the IMF\n- IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/02/12/pr-26046-australia-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation"
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    "Published: February 15, 2026",
    "On February 9, 2026, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation with Australia.",
    "The Australian economy is managing a soft landing. Growth picked up to 2.1 percent year on year in 2025Q3 after a weak 2024, as private demand gradually recovered.",
    "With the output gap narrowing, inflation declined steadily through 2025Q2, allowing monetary policy to be eased over the course of the year. Underlying inflation rose above 3 percent in 2025Q3.",
    "Labor market conditions are easing gradually after a period of tightness; the unemployment rate is 4.3 percent.",
    "House prices have rebounded as financial conditions eased, and new dwelling investment has begun to pick up.",
    "Real GDP is forecast to have expanded by 1.9 percent in 2025 and to grow by 2.1 percent in 2026.",
    "Elevated global uncertainty will continue to weigh on external demand and the current account is expected to remain in deficit into the medium term.",
    "Inflation is projected to converge to the midpoint of the RBA’s 2 to 3 percent target range by the latter half of 2027.",
    "Wage growth is anticipated to moderate further, partially attributable to weak productivity growth.",
    "Downside external risks: global trade tensions, financial instability, and volatile commodity prices could dampen demand and employment.",
    "Domestic risks: persistent inflationary pressures from strong labor markets and constrained supply capacity; slower-than-expected domestic demand recovery could increase unemployment.",
    "Medium-term challenges: climate events and shifting global energy demand.",
    "Upside resilience: new trade agreements and greater regional integration could support resilience.",
    "Directors welcomed progress toward a soft landing and internal balance, noting uncertainties about residual excess demand and supply capacity amid weak productivity growth.",
    "Near-term macroeconomic policies should remain agile and responsive to external shocks.",
    "Monetary policy:",
    "Fiscal policy:",
    "Financial stability and housing:",
    "Structural reforms:",
    "Real GDP (annual percent change):",
    "Domestic demand (annual percent change):",
    "Private consumption (annual percent change):",
    "Investment (percent of GDP) 1/:",
    "Private investment (percent of GDP):",
    "Output gap (percent of potential): 0.1",
    "Employment (annual percent change):",
    "Unemployment (percent of labor force):",
    "Wages (nominal percent change):",
    "Terms of trade index (goods, avg) and % change:",
    "Consumer prices (avg):",
    "GDP deflator (avg):",
    "10-year treasury bond yield (percent, avg):",
    "Mortgage lending rate (percent, avg):",
    "House prices (% change):",
    "House price-to-income, national median value (ratio):",
    "Estimated interest payments (percent of disposable income):",
    "Household savings (percent of disposable income):",
    "Household debt (percent of disposable income) 2/:",
    "Business credit (percent of GDP):",
    "General government (percent of GDP) — Revenue:",
    "General government (percent of GDP) — Expenditure:",
    "Net lending/borrowing (percent of GDP):",
    "Gross debt (percent of GDP):",
    "Net debt (percent of GDP):",
    "Current account (percent of GDP):",
    "Net international investment position (percent of GDP):",
    "Gross official reserves (bn A$):",
    "Nominal GDP (bn A$):",
    "Nominal GDP percent change:",
    "Real GDP per capita (% change): 0.9 (year listed)",
    "Population (million):",
    "Nominal effective exchange rate:",
    "Real effective exchange rate:",
    "[Australia and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/AUS/index.htm)",
    "[IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)",
    "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm](http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
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