{ "title": "Press Briefing Transcript: Julie Kozack, Director, Communications Department, March 6, 2025", "publication": "IMF News, March 6, 2025", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/03/06/tr030625-transcript-of-com-regular-press-briefing", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/03/06/tr030625-transcript-of-com-regular-press-briefing", "overlayPath": "/en/news/articles/2025/03/06/tr030625-transcript-of-com-regular-press-briefing/index.md", "summary": "IMF's Communications Department Director Julie Kozack discusses Argentina, Ukraine, Egypt, and other relevant developments.", "publishDate": "2025-03-06", "sections": [ { "heading": "Overview", "content": "- Speaker: Ms. Julie Kozack, Director of the Communications Department, IMF.\n- Briefing embargo: embargoed until 11 a.m. Eastern Time in the U.S.\n- 2025 Spring Meetings: scheduled from Monday, April 21 through Saturday, April 26; press registration available via www.IMFconnect.org.\n- Media relations contact listed: PRESS OFFICER: Boris Balabanov; Phone: +1 202 623-7100; Email: MEDIA@IMF.org; @IMFSpokesperson." }, { "heading": "Argentina — negotiations, congressional approval, program scope", "content": "- Status of negotiations:\n - Managing Director and First Deputy Managing Director recently met Argentine authorities; negotiations are \"continuing in a constructive manner.\"\n - Authorities’ stabilization and growth plan is \"delivering significant results,\" including notable strides in reducing inflation, stabilizing the economy, fostering return to growth, and poverty \"finally beginning to decline.\"\n - New program would build on progress while addressing remaining challenges.\n- Policy priorities under a prospective program:\n - Continue consistent fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies.\n - Advance growth-enhancing reforms.\n- Congressional approval and process:\n - President Milei has committed to seek congressional support as legislated in Argentine domestic law.\n - IMF notes \"securing congressional support is a decision of the authorities as legislated in Argentine domestic law.\"\n - From IMF side: final arrangement and documents will require approval of the IMF's Executive Board once negotiations are completed.\n- Program size and timing:\n - Potential program size (figures reported in media): mentions of up to $20 billion and an $8 billion initial deployment were raised by questioners.\n - IMF statement: \"All I can say right now is this is still under discussion\" and updates will be provided when more information is available." }, { "heading": "Lebanon — mission and next steps", "content": "- IMF team visit scheduled: March 10th to 14th.\n - Mission purpose: fact-finding to meet new authorities, discuss recent economic developments, reconstruction needs, and near-term economic priorities.\n- IMF engagement:\n - Staff \"providing policy advice and capacity development\" in coordination with other international partners.\n - Future possible next steps: helping authorities formulate a comprehensive economic reform program." }, { "heading": "U.S. tariffs, trade fragmentation, and global implications", "content": "- Recent developments:\n - U.S. has imposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico and additional tariffs on China; Canada and China have announced retaliatory measures; Mexico to provide more details in coming days.\n- IMF analysis and timing:\n - IMF expects to provide analysis at global level and for most affected countries in the World Economic Outlook update in April, and in relevant regional updates and Article IV reports.\n- Impact expectations:\n - If sustained, tariffs on Canada and Mexico \"can be expected to have a significant adverse economic impact\" given strong integration with the U.S.\n- Broader trends and uncertainty:\n - Managing Director’s observations cited: rapid advance of AI, changing patterns of capital flows and trade; \"trade is no longer the engine of global growth that it used to be.\"\n - Comparative trade growth:\n - 2000 to 2019: global trade growth \"reached nearly 6 percent on an annual basis.\"\n - 2022 to 2024: global trade \"is growing closer to 3 percent.\"\n - Financial market volatility observed via indicators such as the VIX and measures of global uncertainty.\n - IMF research: sustained periods of elevated uncertainty can lead households and firms to hold back consumption and investment.\n- U.S. bond yields:\n - U.S. bond yields have moved lower since the beginning of the year; markets may be reassessing outlook for monetary policy.\n- Special note on small island and Caribbean states:\n - IMF will assess potential impacts (inflationary pressures, import cost increases) and include that analysis where relevant in upcoming forecasts." }, { "heading": "Ukraine — Seventh Review, disbursements, debt sustainability, and growth outlook", "content": "- Recent staff-level agreement:\n - On February 28th, IMF staff and Ukrainian authorities reached a staff-level agreement on the Seventh Review of the four-year EFF arrangement (subject to Executive Board approval).\n- Disbursement and program size:\n - Ukraine is expected to draw about U.S. $400 million, bringing total disbursements under the program to U.S. $10.1 billion.\n - Overall size of the program remains unchanged at $15.6 billion.\n - IMF note: shifts in disbursement pattern reflect evolving balance of payments needs.\n- Program performance and conditionality:\n - \"Program performance in Ukraine remains strong.\"\n - All end-December quantitative performance criteria were met.\n - Understandings reached on policies and reforms to sustain macroeconomic stability.\n- Debt sustainability:\n - Restoring debt sustainability hinges on implementation of authorities' debt restructuring strategy, including treatment of GDP warrants, and continuation of a revenue-based fiscal adjustment strategy supported under the program.\n - Ukraine’s debt was assessed in the last review to be sustainable on a forward-looking basis contingent on these areas; a revised Debt Sustainability Assessment will be part of the ongoing review.\n- Growth outlook and uncertainty:\n - Estimated GDP growth for Ukraine: 3.5 percent in 2024.\n - Projected to moderate to 2 to 3 percent in 2025 due to labor constraints and energy infrastructure damage amid ongoing war.\n - IMF emphasizes outlook is \"exceptionally uncertain\" while the war continues.\n- On frozen U.S. aid and geopolitical developments:\n - IMF is following developments closely; premature to comment on implications until further assessment." }, { "heading": "Egypt — Executive Board discussion, EFF fourth review, and RSF", "content": "- Board meeting and items:\n - On March 10th, Executive Board will discuss Egypt's Article IV consultation and the fourth review under the EFF, and will consider Egypt's request for an RSF (Resilience and Sustainability Facility).\n- Potential access and amounts (subject to Executive Board completion/approval):\n - Under the EFF, authorities \"would have access to $1.2 billion.\"\n - RSF size would be \"about U.S. $1.3 billion.\"\n- RSF delivery:\n - RSF is delivered in tranches; \"not one lump sum up front\" — phased dispersals based on conditions being met.\n- Board calendar items:\n - Board will discuss waivers of non-observance for some performance criteria and modifications; IMF will provide more details following the Board meeting.\n- Related items:\n - IMF to provide further detail on any state-owned enterprises program steps and waivers after the March 10th Board meeting." }, { "heading": "Japan — growth, inflation, monetary policy, and exchange rate", "content": "- Growth and inflation expectations:\n - Growth expected to strengthen in 2025; inflation expected to converge to Bank of Japan's 2 percent target by the end of 2025.\n - January WEO projection: growth in Japan at 1.1 percent for 2025 (to be updated in April forecast).\n- Policy guidance:\n - IMF supportive of the Bank of Japan’s recent monetary policy decisions.\n - Further hikes in policy interest rate should be \"data dependent\" and proceed at a gradual pace given balance of risks around inflation.\n- Exchange rate policy:\n - Japanese authorities have affirmed commitment to a flexible exchange rate regime.\n - IMF view: flexible exchange rate helps absorb shocks and supports monetary policy focus on price stability; maintains an external position \"in line with fundamentals.\"" }, { "heading": "El Salvador and Ethiopia — programs, Bitcoin, and recent reviews", "content": "- El Salvador:\n - Executive Board recently approved a 40-month EFF for U.S. $1.4 billion with an immediate disbursement of $113 million.\n - Program expected to catalyze combined support of about U.S. $3.5 billion over the program period from other IFIs.\n - Program objectives: restore fiscal sustainability, rebuild external and financial buffers, strengthen governance and transparency, and create conditions for stronger, resilient growth.\n - Bitcoin policy under the program:\n - Program aims to address risks associated with the Bitcoin project to protect consumers/investors and limit potential fiscal costs.\n - Recent legal reforms: acceptance of Bitcoin made voluntary; taxes can be paid only in U.S. dollars.\n - Under the program, the government has committed \"to not accumulate for their Bitcoins at the level of the overall public sector.\"\n - Recent increase in holdings by the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Fund: authorities have confirmed these are consistent with agreed program conditionality; IMF remains engaged.\n - IMF monitoring: closely watching U.S. Presidential Working Group on Digital Asset Markets; implementation details pending.\n- Ethiopia:\n - On January 17th, IMF Executive Board completed the Second Review of the ECF arrangement, allowing a drawdown of about U.S. $245 million.\n - ECF arrangement supports reforms to address macroeconomic imbalances, restore external debt sustainability, and lay foundation for private sector-led growth.\n - Managing Director visited Ethiopia on February 8th and 9th, meeting Prime Minister Abiy and other stakeholders to review reform progress." }, { "heading": "Senegal — audit revelations and IMF engagement", "content": "- Court of Auditors report:\n - Released on February 12th; confirmed fiscal deficit and debt were underreported during 2019 to 2023.\n - Report found debt at \"99.7 percent of GDP\" in 2023 (as cited by questioner).\n- IMF response and engagement:\n - IMF actively engaged with authorities regarding the report and misreporting under the IMF program.\n - Working with authorities to preserve fiscal and debt sustainability and to correct and remedy misreporting.\n - Resolution of misreporting in line with IMF policy is a precondition for discussions of any future IMF financial assistance.\n - IMF does not impose sanctions for misreporting; Executive Board will decide next steps, which could include waivers (which \"could be a waiver without a request for reimbursement\").\n - IMF will report back when more information is available." }, { "heading": "Thailand — 2026 Annual Meetings preparations", "content": "- Thailand to host the World Bank/IMF Annual Meetings in October 2026 (every three years the Annual Meetings are held abroad).\n - Last time Thailand hosted: 1991; 2026 marks 35 years since then.\n- IMF engagement:\n - Preparations underway; IMF staff working with Thai authorities.\n - Aim to showcase regional dynamism and economic activity, and position Thailand as a contributor to international economic dialogue.\n - Ongoing cooperation to prioritize reforms that deliver lasting benefits beyond the meetings." }, { "heading": "Jordan — EFF, growth projections, and mission timing", "content": "- Recent Board actions:\n - Executive Board on December 12th completed the Article IV Consultation and the Second Review under the EFF arrangement for Jordan.\n- Mission and review timing:\n - Third Review mission expected to take place in April.\n- Growth and outlook:\n - Growth in 2024: 2.3 percent.\n - Projected growth: 2.5 percent in 2025; 3 percent in 2026.\n - IMF notes Jordan has demonstrated resilience and maintained macroeconomic stability despite regional conflict, while uncertainty remains high.\n - Projections to be updated in the April World Economic Outlook and as part of the mission assessment." }, { "heading": "Other topics noted briefly", "content": "- USAID suspension:\n - IMF is monitoring potential impacts on lower-income countries and working with country authorities; \"too early to really say what the precise impact may be.\"\n- Conflict endings and macro implications:\n - IMF will undertake analysis as events evolve to assess implications of conflict cessation scenarios (e.g., for Russia and Ukraine).\n- Market volatility and uncertainty:\n - IMF will assess implications of recent policy and market developments in the April World Economic Outlook.\n\nTranscript made available later today on IMF.org; for clarifications or additional questions contact media@IMF.org.\n\nSource: Press Briefing Transcript: Julie Kozack, Director, Communications Department, March 6, 2025\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- PRESS CENTER\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/03/06/tr030625-transcript-of-com-regular-press-briefing" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2025/03/06/tr030625-transcript-of-com-regular-press-briefing/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2025/03/06/tr030625-transcript-of-com-regular-press-briefing/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2025/03/06/tr030625-transcript-of-com-regular-press-briefing/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: March 6, 2025", "Speaker: Ms. Julie Kozack, Director of the Communications Department, IMF.", "Briefing embargo: embargoed until 11 a.m. Eastern Time in the U.S.", "2025 Spring Meetings: scheduled from Monday, April 21 through Saturday, April 26; 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