## IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation, Third Review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility with Morocco

_IMF News, March 18, 2025_

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## Bibliographic details
- Published: March 18, 2025

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### Executive Board action and financing
- The Executive Board concluded the 2025 Article IV consultation with Morocco and completed the Third Review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) arrangement, which was approved in September 2023.
- Completion of the Third Review allows the authorities to draw SDR 375 million (about US$ 496 million), bringing total disbursement under the RSF arrangement to SDR 937.5 million (about US$ 1.24 billion).
- Press Release No. 25/068.

### Near-term economic performance and outlook
- 2024 real GDP growth: 3.2 percent (estimated), down from 3.4 percent in 2023.
- Growth drivers (near term): Robust domestic demand offsetting weak agricultural output amid drought.
- Medium-term outlook: GDP growth is expected to accelerate to about 3.7 percent over the next few years, driven by a new cycle of infrastructure projects and continued implementation of structural reforms.
- Real nonagricultural GDP growth (selected series in table): 7.0 (2020), 4.1 (2021), [value for 2022 not listed in source excerpt].
- Inflation:
  - Inflation (end of period): -0.3 (2020), 8.3 (2021), 0.7 (2022), 2.1 (2023), 2.2 (2024), 2.0 (2025).
  - Inflation (period average): 1.4 (2020), 6.6 (2021), 6.1 (2022), 0.9 (2023), 2.3 (2024).
- Monetary policy: Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) lowered the policy rate twice in June and December 2024 as supply-shock effects on inflation faded.
- Exchange rate: The dirham continued to move within the fluctuation band of ±5 percent.

### External sector and reserves
- Current account (percent of GDP): -1.2 (2020), -2.3 (2021), -3.5 (2022), -0.6 (2023), -1.5 (2024), -2.0 (2025), -2.2 (2026), -2.6 (2027), -2.9 (2028).
- Exports of goods (U.S. dollar annual percent change): -4.4 (2020), 34.4 (2021), 15.1 (2022), -0.5 (2023), 8.6 (2024), 7.3 (2025), 6.8 (2026), 6.7 (2027).
- Imports of goods (U.S. dollar annual percent change): -12.0 (2020), 32.1 (2021), 21.9 (2022), 8.1 (2023), 7.5 (2024), 7.4 (2025), 6.4 (2026), 6.2 (2027).
- Merchandise trade balance (percent of GDP): -12.8 (2020), -14.0 (2021), -20.2 (2022), -17.3 (2023), -17.8 (2024), -18.0 (2025), -18.3 (2026), -18.6 (2027), -18.5 (2028).
- Gross reserves (months of imports): 7.2 (2020), 5.8 (2021), 5.4 (2022), 5.2 (2023).

### Labor market and social indicators
- Unemployment (percent): 11.9 (2020), 12.3 (2021), 11.8 (2022), 13.0 (2023), 13.3 (2024), 13.2 (2025), 12.9 (2026), 12.4 (2027), 12.1 (2028).
- The elevated unemployment rate (about 13 percent) in 2024 mainly reflects job losses in the agricultural sector due to drought.
- The IMF highlights the need for a new strategy to sustainably boost jobs and improve market competition to address unemployment linked to job displacement in agriculture.

### Fiscal developments and recommendations
- Central government fiscal outcomes (percent of GDP):
  - Revenue: 27.0 (2020), 25.1 (2021), 28.4 (2022), 27.9 (2023), 30.1 (2024), 30.4 (2025), 29.4 (2026), 28.1 (2027).
  - Expenditure: 34.1 (2020), 31.0 (2021), 33.8 (2022), 32.3 (2023), 34.2 (2024), 34.3 (2025), 32.8 (2026), 31.4 (2027), 31.3 (2028), 31.2 (2029).
  - Fiscal balance: -7.1 (2020), -5.9 (2021), -5.4 (2022), -4.5 (2023), -4.1 (2024), -3.9 (2025), -3.4 (2026), -3.3 (2027), -3.2 (2028), -3.1 (2029).
  - Public debt: 72.2 (2020), 69.4 (2021), 71.5 (2022), 69.5 (2023), 70.0 (2024), 68.9 (2025), 67.7 (2026), 66.8 (2027), 66.2 (2028), 65.6 (2029), 65.1 (2030).
- 2024 overall central government deficit closed at 4.1 percent of GDP, about 0.2 percent of GDP less than projected in the 2024 Budget, reflecting better-than-expected tax revenues more than offsetting higher spending.
- The reform of the Organic Budget Law envisages introduction of a new fiscal rule based on a medium-term debt anchor.
- Policy recommendations highlighted:
  - Save part of the revenue windfall from tax reforms to help strengthen fiscal buffers and protect against future shocks.
  - Implement a new strategy to sustainably boost jobs and improve market competition to mitigate unemployment from agricultural job displacement.

### Structural reforms, state-owned enterprises, and RSF measures
- Structural reform progress:
  - Continued steps to restructure SOEs.
  - Operationalization of the Mohammed VI Investment Fund.
  - Implementation of the new Charter of Investment.
- RSF third and final review measures (six of seven measures implemented):
  - Measures aim to better protect underground water resources.
  - Prepare the ground for a change in tariffication of water.
  - Improve the regulatory setting of the electricity market to encourage private sector production of renewable energy.
  - Reinforce fiscal and financial systems’ resilience to climate change-related risks.
- A gradual introduction of the carbon tax was not implemented because authorities required further impact analysis and deeper consultations with public and private stakeholders.

### Selected economic indicators and memorandum items (selected entries from IMF table)
- Population: 36.8 million; 2024
- Per capita GDP: $3,817; 2023
- Quota: SDR 894.4 million
- Poverty rate: 4.8 percent; 2013
- Main exports: automobiles, phosphate and derivatives; 2023
- Key export markets: France and Spain (42% of total trade); 2023
- Nominal GDP (in billions of U.S. dollars): 121 (2020), 142 (2021), 131 (2022), 144 (2023), 155 (2024), 166 (2025), 177 (2026), 188 (2027), 199 (2028), 212 (2029), 225 (2030).
- Net imports of energy products (in billions of U.S. dollars): -5.3 (2020), -8.4 (2021), -15.1 (2022), -11.5 (2023), -12.1 (2024), -12.3 (2025), -13.2 (2026), -13.7 (2027), -14.1 (2028).
- Local currency per U.S. dollar (period average): 9.5 (2020), 9.0 (2021), 10.2 (2022), 10.1 (2023), 9.9 (2024).

*Source: IMF Executive Board Concluding Statement on the 2025 Article IV Consultation and Third Review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility with Morocco.*

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## References

- [https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg](https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg)
- [The Executive Board](https://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/memdir/eds.aspx)
- [IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)
- [IMF-World Bank Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/sheets/2023/imf-world-bank-debt-sustainability-framework-for-low-income-countries)
- [Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/sheets/2023/special-drawing-rights-sdr)
- [Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)
- [PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)
- [PR 23/327).](https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2023/09/28/pr-23327-imf-approves-1-3-billion-under-the-rsf-arrangement-for-morocco)
- [https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/03/18/pr-2568-morocco-imf-concludes-2025-art-iv-consult-3rd-review-under-rsf_